00:00Bainab, it's great to have you on the program.
00:02You know, a lot's happened in the last 24 hours.
00:04I'm just wondering, you know, in your eyes, are we getting a bit more clarity?
00:08Are we actually seeing the lady in the tunnel with this war now?
00:12Great to be with you, Yvonne. Thanks, David.
00:14Listen, I think the Islamic Republic and the Trump administration right now
00:18are keen not to show their cards.
00:20I think the Trump administration in particular
00:22is showing that it can walk and chew gum at the same time.
00:25It can continue to defang the regime's missile, military, and drone programs.
00:30While also talking about a potential end state.
00:32And in the past 24 hours, the Trump administration has been signaling
00:35both to concerned citizens, policymakers, allies, adversaries,
00:39and perhaps most importantly, markets,
00:41that there may be an end in sight sooner than the president himself
00:44had let on just about a week ago.
00:46Certainly, I think a lot of that is hand-holding, particularly for energy markets.
00:50How that actually squares with who they're talking to in the Islamic Republic
00:53and can that person or institution deliver, all that remains to be seen.
00:57But for the next five days, this is going to be quite the nail-biter,
01:01one that will be affecting markets as well as U.S. strategy for weeks to come.
01:06So what realistic options then should we entertain as possible the next five days then?
01:14Well, one is that you have a slight pause in military operations
01:17or a slight slowdown in military operations while the political space is created
01:22to explore the option of potentially coming up with a deconfliction or ceasefire agreement.
01:28The second is actually an intensification, an intensification of all sides
01:32as they look to signal battlefield resolve as politically they test each other
01:36and try to negotiate some kind of a ceasefire.
01:38Another is that by the end of the five days,
01:40you actually see this to be some kind of psychological warfare
01:43and a political feign and actually just an attempt by the administration
01:47to calm markets, to create space for the arrival of additional assets,
01:50troops, whatnot into the region, to be able to seize something like Khairag Island
01:55or reopen something like the Strait of Hormuz
01:57or potentially to conduct a raid in the future to go after Iran's Kisan material
02:02that is believed to be entombed in a place like Isfahan.
02:05Quite literally right now, despite everybody talking about a ceasefire,
02:09all options still very much remain on the table for the Trump administration,
02:12which I could say probably looks like, based on the rhetoric of the past 24 hours,
02:17looks like it's interested in finding if there is an Iranian version of Delcey Rodriguez.
02:21I've got to tell you, as an Iran watcher and knowing this regime,
02:24there really isn't one.
02:25That's the thing that has duped so many American presidents for the past four decades.
02:29You know, the elusive search for the Iranian moderate.
02:31It would be a shame for the Trump administration to have to have to spend this much money,
02:35time, capital, and resources to find something out
02:38that other previous presidents found out for much cheaper.
02:41But nonetheless, here's where we are.
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