00:00This is a pretty spectacular one, even among some of the rallies that we've seen, as you say,
00:05recently. I mean, I think the extent of that you can see with the European equity futures,
00:11and it's astonishing to see Eurostox futures up 5% in an Asian session. And that's really
00:17something we very, very rarely ever see. And the rally for French bond futures as well is
00:23absolutely huge. We're expecting it in Asia, of course. We're expecting the KOSPI index,
00:28expected Japanese stocks to have big rebounds. I'm sure we will see good moves in Hong Kong as well
00:33when that market reopens after the long weekend. But I don't think anybody was prepared for what
00:38they're seeing with the European markets. But it does, in a way, make some sense because Europe
00:42is extremely exposed to everything that's been going on in the Middle East, particularly the higher
00:47energy costs. So, huge relief there. The euro also is having a pretty good session
00:51in the currency space as well, although the Aussie is way ahead of it, of course, as well.
00:57It will need, though, some details to come through. These kind of knee-jerk reactions
01:01are not unexpected considering how bearish markets have been for several weeks. But investors will
01:08need to see things develop over the next couple of weeks. As those talks go on between the US and
01:13Iran, they'll need to see some flesh on this to be sure that oil is going to continue to flow
01:19freely
01:19and that other things will be put back in place. And, of course, there's the whole infrastructure
01:23situation as well. There's been so much damage to infrastructure that people need to know that
01:28that's going to be a real bit as well. But certainly, the early moves that you're seeing
01:32in Asia today just shows the extent of relief that investors have, that they can start to think again
01:38about the fundamentals that drive equity markets, whether it's earnings, economic data, central bank
01:43moves. Those things will gradually come back into the picture and people can take a step back
01:48from just watching headlines related to Iran.
01:53Yeah, Mark, in terms of sustainability of this relief rally, we do have to remember that
01:59this is a two-week window in which there will be a negotiation that involves President Trump,
02:03who is mercurial at best. What's the risk of a reversal?
02:10Hi. You know, any time that we see we see the kind of reactions and the very fast responses that
02:17markets can make when there are negative headlines coming out from the United States or from anybody
02:22for that matter. But certainly in terms of the American president, he's very capable of disrupting
02:28markets with just a few words. So, yes, investors will be on edge for that. But the bar has moved
02:34up
02:35slightly here. It's really investors will be looking for the risk that there's any serious
02:40backtracking. They're going to assume that there are best intentions here, that people have come
02:45this far and that there's going to be a negotiated process. You've got intermediary in the shape of
02:50Pakistan as well. So investors will be taking heart from that. The fact that there does appear to be
02:55some framework here for them to work in is not simply an ad hoc situation where people are coming
03:01together. So as long as there's no major backtracking, that will certainly help the
03:07the mood in markets. But if we do get closer to the date and you get people like President Trump
03:12saying that, OK, this deal was there's nothing going on here. There's not going to be a deal.
03:16Then markets will be very concerned. But at least for the next few days, it looks as though there'll be
03:20a sustainable mood here, which people will push markets higher. Don't forget the there's been very
03:26big retracements, particularly in equity markets, bond markets to some extent as well.
03:30And people will be looking at this as a relative value play. It's not just about
03:35what's being discussed at the moment. It's about what they missed out on over the past several
03:39weeks. Equity markets, especially in Asia, were in pretty good shape before this war started. And
03:44just getting back to the equilibrium they were at the early part of March is what people will be looking
03:49for.
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