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On Day 25 of the West Asia war , uncertainty persists as US President Donald Trump claims back-channel talks with Iran are underway and announces a temporary pause on strikes.
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00:00Good evening, you're watching NewsTrack with me, Maria Shaquille.
00:03It's day 25 of the West Asia conflict and uncertainty reigns supreme.
00:09While the US President has claimed that backchannel talks with Iran are on
00:14and only 24 hours ago he announced that there will be some kind of temporary pause on strikes,
00:21the reality on the ground tells a much harsher story.
00:25Missiles and drones continue to devastate cities from Tel Aviv to Tehran.
00:32Iran, meanwhile, has denied any negotiations and despite efforts by regional players
00:37like Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan to push for a ceasefire, the war shows no signs of ending.
00:46Donald Trump dialed Prime Minister Modi and the Prime Minister communicated to the US President
00:53that India supports de-escalation and restoration of peace at the earliest.
00:58Prime Minister Modi said that ensuring the Strait of Hormuz remains open, secure and accessible
01:04is essential for the whole world.
01:07So what's next in this West Asia war?
01:10Whether Donald Trump's claims are a strategic bluff or a prelude to a bigger plan remains to be seen.
01:17Before we speak with our special guest who will be joining me from Washington, D.C.,
01:23here's what happened today.
01:31Day 25 of the West Asia war and uncertainty is the only constant.
01:38Donald Trump claims back-channel stocks are underway with Iran,
01:43announcing a five-day pause on strikes targeting Tehran's infrastructure.
01:50But the ground reality? Completely different.
01:53Missiles and drones continue to rip through the skies from Tel Aviv to Tehran.
02:00Buildings flatten, cars charred, lives lost.
02:04That is the truth, despite claims of a pause.
02:08Iran has flatly denied any talks with the United States,
02:11making it clear the war is far from over.
02:16This reflects the decision of Iran's military leadership and people.
02:20Any U.S. strike on Iran's power infrastructure would trigger a far harsher response,
02:25saying it would go beyond eye for an eye.
02:29Such actions would leave the U.S. paralyzed and vulnerable in the Persian Gulf.
02:36We have had very, very strong talks.
02:39We'll see where they lead.
02:40We have major points of agreement.
02:43I would say almost all points of agreement.
02:46If they carry through with that, it'll end that problem, that conflict.
02:52And I think it'll end it very, very substantially.
02:54It is unshakable.
02:56Trump has now claimed it was his Secretary of Defense, Pete Hexet,
03:00who pitched the idea of war against Iran.
03:03I called Pete, I called General Cain, I called a lot of our great people.
03:07We have great people.
03:08And I said, let's talk.
03:09We got a problem in the Middle East.
03:11Pete, I think you were the first one to speak up.
03:14And you said, let's do it.
03:15Because you can't let them have a nuclear weapon.
03:21Meanwhile, Israel insists Trump is serious about a deal but warns that Tehran may refuse to bend.
03:27And now the peace push is going global.
03:30Reports suggest countries like Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are all working back channels to broker a ceasefire.
03:38Tehran acknowledges outreach from friendly nations but maintains no negotiations are underway.
03:46President Trump also dialed Prime Minister Modi, asking for India's support for de-escalation and the need to keep the
03:53state of Hormuz open.
03:55So is Trump bluffing or buying time for something bigger?
03:59The answer may come later.
04:01But for now, the war rages on.
04:03Bureau Report, India Today.
04:08Joining me first on the show is Dr. Melanie McAllister,
04:11who is the Director of Institute for Middle East Studies at the George Washington University.
04:18Ma'am, thank you so much for speaking to India Today.
04:20Let me begin with a fundamental contradiction here.
04:23President Trump announces a pause for talks.
04:25Iran says there are no talks.
04:27In that situation, can Tehran realistically trust Washington's intent?
04:32Or is this pause being viewed as more of a strategic move rather than a diplomatic one?
04:41Thank you for having me.
04:43And that is a good question.
04:44I imagine that what is happening is that there are attempts to try to resolve this situation that are not
04:52direct talks,
04:53but that Trump can frame as talks since they are conversations between different parties about what might be possible.
05:01I think the goal here really is, on Trump's part, or it should be, to get out of this war,
05:07to leave the field and declare victory as soon as possible,
05:11because every day that the war continues, it is worse for him, it is worse for the American people,
05:15and of course it is much worse for the people in the Middle East.
05:20We have seen a sharp shift from ultimatums to a pause.
05:24How much of this is driven not by diplomacy, but by the sheer global risk that is attached to the
05:29Strait of Hormuz,
05:30where disruption is already rattling energy markets?
05:34Yes, I think that there is, both things are happening.
05:37One is that there is a lot of pressure economically.
05:41The price of gas is rising very fast in the United States,
05:44and this is something that this car-dependent country is very sensitive to.
05:48I think that there is some diplomatic pressure.
05:51I mean, the UAE and the other Gulf countries cannot afford to have Iran targeting their water desalinization plants or
05:59anything else.
06:00This is very real pressure.
06:02And also, the war is extremely unpopular in the United States.
06:05So Trump has every reason to try to get out of it.
06:09You say that this war is unpopular in the United States.
06:13Then is it domestic considerations which is driving Donald Trump to announce that pause?
06:21Pure domestic politics.
06:23I think that Donald Trump is very worried about the unpopularity of the war
06:27because some of the people who are most outspoken about it are in his base.
06:32Trump ran on no new wars.
06:35That was a very important part of his opposition to the Biden administration,
06:39which, of course, had funded the genocide in Gaza and had been much more activist.
06:47His base is often people who have served in the military or whose families have served in the military in
06:54Iraq or one of the wars that were associated with post 9-11.
06:59And they feel very strongly that they do not want the United States to be involved in unnecessary conflicts abroad
07:07and in the Middle East in particular.
07:08So I think that he has a base to answer to, that it's very unpopular among that base, not just
07:15in the general public, but among the people who voted for him.
07:17And he has midterm elections coming up.
07:21Dr. McAllister, Iran today visibly holds a critical lever, the ability to choke and control the Strait of Hormuz,
07:31through which a significant portion of global oil flows, almost 20 percent.
07:35How does that reshape the balance of power in this conflict, especially against a militarily superior United States and Israel?
07:47It is crucial. The Strait of Hormuz was something that Trump was warned about from the beginning when they were
07:53talking about launching this war.
07:56He knew and he should have known that they had the possibility of or even the likelihood of blocking it
08:03because it's a strategic advantage in a situation where Iran has few advantages.
08:09The fact that they have managed to really close it down or more or less close it down has been
08:15quite, in a funny way, Trump didn't expect it, even though he was told to expect it,
08:21because he believed that this war would be over before it could even happen.
08:24So this fact that the Strait of Hormuz is something that is absolutely crucial to the global economy, crucial to
08:32the allies in the Gulf,
08:34means that Iran does have leverage here.
08:36And that is one of the reasons I think that Trump is talking about talking, because the closure of that
08:42Strait is causing a lot of disruption globally.
08:45You make an interesting point, particularly with regards to the leverage that Iran has.
08:50Energy clearly now has become the central battlefield.
08:54Shipping routes have been disrupted. Oil prices are surging. Global economies are on edge.
09:00Does that fundamentally change how wars are fought and negotiated in today's world?
09:10Energy has always been a crucial part of wars, especially any wars that are happening in the Middle East.
09:16There are always issues to think about. Oil prices rising.
09:19Things are getting shut down from the 1973 oil crisis when the Arab states forbid sending any oil to the
09:28United States and its allies.
09:30Every person, every leader who thinks about going to the war in the Middle East has to think about oil
09:36and the energy infrastructure.
09:37So this is not new. What is interesting here is that Trump seemed to go into the war with the
09:44assumption that he could be free from this perennial problem.
09:48And it's turned out his feet are made of the same clay as everyone else's, and he's not free of
09:54the problem.
09:54So it's not that the war is changing because of the energy infrastructure being important.
09:59It has been important for 50 years or more.
10:01But because finally, the use of that oil weapon, so to speak, has been very effective in a post-9
10:12-11 war,
10:12which certainly didn't play the same role in the wars in Iraq and the post-9-11 wars after Iraq,
10:19because the U.S. had so many troops on the ground and so much control of the space.
10:24Okay, Dr. McAllister, historically, U.S.-Iran engagement has been marked by cycles of escalation and back-channel talks.
10:34Does this moment then fit in that pattern, or are we in a far more unstable phase where even those
10:42informal channels are breaking down?
10:47I'm not sure. I don't have privy to what the informal channels are doing, and that's good,
10:53because that means they're informal enough to be working.
10:56I hope that that is exactly what's happening, that there are people on both sides who are trying to make
11:02this conversation happen.
11:04It sounds like that's the case. Trump is willing to talk about being in talks with Iran,
11:08and Iran, as much as they say they're not in talks, has every reason to want to have the conversation
11:14to help this war end.
11:16So I hope it's not breaking down. I think we see some signals that it's in fact working,
11:21that both sides are talking about the fact that a diplomatic solution or a negotiated solution can happen and needs
11:28to happen.
11:29Okay, so let me ask you the central question here. Based on what we know so far,
11:34is there any indication that Israel may have acted ahead of, or perhaps beyond, what Washington was fully prepared for?
11:43In other words, is there a gap between United States' intent and Israeli action?
11:49Because there are multiple reports which are suggesting so.
11:54I'm not inclined to think that Israel actually forced the hand of the Trump administration.
12:01What I am inclined to believe, and what seems to be the most likely scenario,
12:06is that the Israelis have a lot of influence. Netanyahu and Trump like each other.
12:11They've been in a lot of conversation over the last year since the Israeli war in Gaza.
12:17And I think that Netanyahu finally convinced Trump that the war would be quick and easy and something he could
12:26hang on his belt.
12:28That was wrong, of course. But I don't think that the U.S. is being directed by Israel.
12:35The United States is the most powerful country in the world, and Israel, however strong an ally,
12:40is a small country with nothing like that kind of power.
12:43So when these decisions are made, they are made with the U.S. fully involved in that decision.
12:48And the U.S. has to take responsibility for that.
12:50I think there's a longing on the part of some people to blame Israel.
12:54So it's not really our fault. We didn't really make this decision.
12:57But that's just a way out. The U.S. made this decision to go to war.
13:00So if the United States is deciding, then is Washington, D.C. really shaping the events of this war?
13:07It certainly seems like that. I mean, Israel certainly is doing, Israel is not a good actor in this scenario.
13:13And what Israel is doing in Lebanon, for example, the U.S. seems to have very little control or very
13:18little say in.
13:19And the Israeli continuous bombing of Lebanon, the attempts to really, it seems like, lay the ground for destruction, reconstruction,
13:28maybe takeover of the south of Lebanon, all of that is deeply problematic.
13:32And I don't think the Trump administration is shaping those events.
13:36So there is a whole piece of the war that the Trump administration has, you know, just allowed Israel to
13:42have control over.
13:43It's Israel's war. But in Iran, the U.S. is the main driver of events.
13:49However much Israel might have had an influence on Iran, the fact is that this war happened on Trump's timeline
13:56and Trump's choosing.
13:59So in that sense, yes, the U.S. is shaping events.
14:01On the other hand, Iran is also shaping events by, say, by the very fact that the leadership has not
14:08capitulated,
14:09despite so many people in leadership being killed, shows that the Iranians have a level of backbone,
14:17a level of commitment that the Trump administration simply didn't plan for.
14:23OK, Dr. McAllister, the conflict has widened.
14:27The Gulf countries were not direct parties to this conflict initially.
14:31Yet they have been targeted.
14:33What does this do to the regional trust, both in Iran and in the U.S. security umbrella that is
14:40supposed to protect these states?
14:44Yes, that is an excellent question, because the all the Gulf countries that have had their infrastructure attack that are
14:50now being threatened,
14:51their water infrastructure, which is probably even more important.
14:54They have got to feel that the alliance with the United States is not as uniformly beneficial as it might
15:03have seemed.
15:03On the other hand, the power differential is clear.
15:07Iran has had no capacity to do real damage, certainly to the United States, to the Gulf countries.
15:17And so I think that what we're seeing here is maybe a sense that the alliance with the United States
15:23has a price that maybe some of the Gulf countries had not reckoned with,
15:27but that the ultimate reality is that those bases, those alliances have served those autocratic leaders in the Gulf very
15:37well.
15:38And I don't imagine they're really up for negotiation.
15:40So by widening the battlefield to the Gulf and energy infrastructure, has Iran then effectively raised the cost of this
15:51war for the entire world
15:52and has also at the same time perhaps made de-escalation far more difficult?
16:00There is no question that Iran has raised the cost of this war in ways that I'm sure the Trump
16:07administration nor Israel had figured in.
16:10That the fact that the fact that they have closed the Strait of Hormuz, that they have actually attacked Gulf
16:14countries,
16:15that they have refused to bend even in the face of the assassination of four to five of their absolutely
16:22top leaders,
16:23shows that Iran has been willing to fight back aggressively in ways that were not planned for.
16:30And so in that sense, it has raised the cost of the war.
16:33This is not the war that Trump expected to be in.
16:36And he did not expect to be in this conversation about trying to get out of the war a month
16:41later.
16:41He thought it was going to be, as he said, something like Venezuela.
16:44It has turned out to be something very different.
16:47So Iran has raised the cost of this intervention on the behalf of the United States and Israel much higher
16:54than I think anybody expected.
16:55OK, that brings me to my last question, ma'am.
16:58Let's look at a post-war situation now.
17:01Now, Dubai and UAE are both pretending at the moment with the kind of reels that have been put out
17:07and the videos that all is well,
17:09that they have the great Dubai dream in control.
17:13What, according to you, normalcy will be in a post-war situation?
17:19Or do you think that has changed completely?
17:20I mean, I think that there's a remarkable capacity to continue to do exactly that,
17:25to continue to go in the way that the Dubai, UAE and these other countries have done.
17:31That's to say, have the alliance with the United States,
17:33but really put their commitment into economic development,
17:38into kind of global cultural leadership, education,
17:42the kinds of things that they have really made a massive, deep and long-term commitment to.
17:48This war, ultimately, I don't think it's going to have a big influence
17:52on how the Gulf countries think about their long-term development and security.
17:56What's working has worked extremely well for them.
17:59And they are now world leaders in ways they were not 10 or 15 years ago.
18:03I think that's barely here to stay.
18:07Dr. McAllister, thank you so much for joining us and sharing your thoughts.
18:12And reports are that Pakistan is trying to position itself
18:15as the lead mediator between the U.S. and Iran
18:19and reflects more than a goodwill gesture.
18:22It shows that Islamabad's strategic ambition to assert relevance
18:26and influence amidst a major geopolitical crisis.
18:30So why exactly is Pakistan stepping into a high-stakes diplomatic role?
18:36Take a look at this report.
18:38I'm leaving you with this.
18:39Thanks so much for watching.
18:44What caused Donald Trump to stop threatening and start talking with Tehran?
18:50Was it spiraling oil prices?
18:54The threat of a shut state of Hormuz?
18:58Or was it, if reports are to be believed,
19:01because of the role by Pakistan of all countries?
19:06A nation that thrives on terror and lies about the same.
19:10How can it be pushing for peace and dialogue?
19:14How is Pakistan, which is embroiled in a conflict with Afghanistan,
19:19is trying to position itself as the lead mediator?
19:22However, it's not for nothing.
19:25Behind Pakistan's urgency lies strategic compulsions
19:28and its own self-interest.
19:32Pakistan is desperate to stay relevant globally.
19:36Leading the charge in Pakistan is its jihadi General Asim Munir,
19:40who is widely being seen as the de facto leader.
19:43So how did it happen?
19:48A London-based Financial Times has reported
19:51that Pakistani Army Chief General Asim Munir
19:53spoke to US President Donald Trump.
19:55It also reported that Pakistan is positioning itself
19:59as a lead mediator,
20:00attempting to broker an end to the conflict.
20:03On Monday, Pakistan's PM Shehbaz Sharif
20:06also spoke to the Iranian President.
20:08The report also added that Pakistan
20:10is holding back-channel talks with the US and Iran
20:12and is in touch with US envoy Steve Pitkoff
20:15and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner.
20:17If efforts succeed,
20:19Islamabad could emerge as a possible venue for peace talks.
20:24Well, the timing of it all cannot be ignored.
20:28Why is a country,
20:29which is grappling with its own security challenges,
20:32one that breeds terror,
20:33is so keen to position itself
20:35at the heart of a high-stakes conflict?
20:40Pakistan, while not getting involved
20:42in the Middle East conflict,
20:43has maintained working ties with both the US and Iran,
20:46which is rare.
20:47It is the reason why Pakistan,
20:50apart from Oman and Turkey,
20:51has been simultaneously trusted
20:53by both Washington and Tehran
20:54to carry sensitive messages.
20:56What's also crucial
20:57is Pakistan's geographic proximity to Iran.
21:00The countries share a nearly 1,000-kilometer border
21:03and have long-standing diplomatic and security ties.
21:06Let's not forget,
21:07Pakistan also has the second-largest Shia population
21:10after Iran.
21:12Experts point out
21:13that Pakistan represents Iran's diplomatic interests
21:16in the US.
21:17What also can't be ignored
21:19is the fact
21:19Pakistan, led by Munir,
21:21has forged close ties with Trump
21:23in the past few months.
21:25So much so,
21:26that Trump has called Munir
21:27his favourite field marshal.
21:30I have to say,
21:31my favourite field marshal
21:33from Pakistan,
21:34who's not here,
21:35but the Prime Minister is here
21:37and you're going to give his regards.
21:39Where are you?
21:40There you go.
21:41Thank you very much.
21:43Pakistan has welcomed efforts
21:45to end the Middle East war,
21:46with PM Shehbaz Sharif
21:48even offering to host
21:49and facilitate meaningful talks.
21:52All this is a result
21:54of Islamabad's flattery policy.
21:57Pakistan has left no stone unturned
21:59in massaging Trump's ego
22:01by nominating him
22:02for the Nobel Peace Prize.
22:06As expected back home,
22:08Pakistan's claimed mediator role
22:10has sparked a massive controversy,
22:12with the opposition voicing
22:14strong criticism
22:15of the Modi government.
22:17Modi Ji Ji Ji.
22:21ॐ ॐ ॐ ॐ ॐ
23:14But Prime Minister Modi is still batting for diplomacy and dialogue amid the escalating tensions.
23:21ॐ ॐ
23:22हमारा लक्ष डायलोग और डिप्लोमसी के मादम से शेत्र में शांती की बहाली का है।
23:31हमने डी-एसकेलेशन और हॉर्मूस ट्रेट खोले जाने पर भी उनसे बात की है।
23:40कमर्शियल जहाजो पर हमला और हॉर्मूस ट्रेट जैसे अंतराष्टे जलमार्ग में रुकावट अस्विकारिया।
23:52Whatever the situation, Pakistan's theatrics don't suit the role of a mediator.
23:57And sooner or later, the world may see why it is resorting to such actions.
24:02Bureau Report, India Today.
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