00:00And joining us now is Ambassador John Bolton.
00:04Ambassador Bolton, thank you for your time here on India Today.
00:07With the deadline fast approaching, how should this truth social post of President Trump be seen,
00:13where he says, and I'm quoting President Trump,
00:15a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.
00:21Why this dangerous escalation in language?
00:25Well, I think it shows that Trump really is feeling the pressure.
00:30He knows that he cannot declare victory with the Strait of Hormuz closed.
00:35So he's threatening and blustering and hoping that the regime in Tehran will cave in to his rhetoric.
00:43I don't think that's going to happen.
00:44I don't see with less than 12 hours to go before the deadline that there's any possibility of an agreement.
00:52What Trump actually does tonight after the deadline passes really still is anybody's guess.
00:59I wouldn't necessarily think that this latest social media posting is the attack plan.
01:07But Ambassador Bolton, even as we speak, the Iranian media is in fact reporting
01:11that railway bridge in Aminabad between Zanjan and Mayaneh was hit in U.S.-Israeli attack with damage to the rail
01:21line.
01:22So the infrastructure is being damaged even as the deadline is approaching.
01:28There's a clear indication or mixed signaling with J.D. Wann's claiming that a deal with Iran may still arrive
01:35tonight.
01:35Yes, yet President Trump continues to warn that find out tonight one of the most important moments in long and
01:43complex history of the world.
01:44Why is this kind of mixed messaging coming from the top?
01:48Because I think the top is very confused.
01:51I think they really don't know what to do or what to expect.
01:55They're worried about the market's reaction around the world during trading today,
01:59particularly in the United States, is the market nears its close in U.S. time, East Coast time, still hours
02:07before the deadline.
02:08So they want to keep the markets calm.
02:10At the same time, they want to ramp up pressure on the regime in Tehran.
02:14Those are kind of mutually contradictory.
02:16I do think that a lot of this infrastructure was targeted even in the first days and weeks of the
02:23war.
02:23I think what Trump is really talking about are more comprehensive targeting of things that have already started.
02:30You have called President Trump back in panic mode and eager simply to declare victory and leave.
02:36How is the president's mental state fueling these warnings, including that 47 years of extortion, corruption and death will finally
02:43end?
02:44What's he really thinking?
02:46Well, I think his thoughts are probably a jumble, which is what they typically are,
02:51but just more of a jumble changing more rapidly now with this deadline approaching.
02:57Nobody can really predict what he's going to do or what he will order at 8 o'clock, least of
03:01all himself.
03:02I'm willing to take a guess.
03:03I don't think it will be the kind of attack that the social media posts predict.
03:08I think it will be substantial but limited.
03:11And he'll say, see, I'm just giving you a taste of what we could do.
03:16And to prove that, I'm going to extend the deadline another seven days, let's say.
03:21OK, so you are thinking that there could be an extension of the deadline.
03:24But Ambassador Bolton, what is also coming in of intensification of attacks by the Iranians?
03:31They are continuing with their attacks in the entire GCC.
03:37Also, the Iran missile has struck on Saudi targets as well.
03:43So that is happening even as there are talks of deadline and negotiations.
03:50Sure, that could well be accurate.
03:52I do think it's important to understand that when we talk about attacks on U.S. positions,
03:57Israel, the Gulf Arab states near Iran, we're not talking about anything like the level of attack
04:03that Israel and the United States have been conducting against Iran.
04:08Every missile, every drone that hits a target in Israel or the Gulf Arab countries gets reported by the press.
04:15The press is almost nowhere in Iran and can't really even begin to portray the damage that's already been caused
04:22to the Revolutionary Guard and the institutions of the regime itself.
04:27So it's true the attacks are continuing.
04:30But, you know, every time they roll out a missile launcher to fire missiles at Saudi Arabia or Israel
04:35or the United Arab Emirates, it exposes them to U.S. and Israeli attacks
04:40to destroy the missile launchers conclusively.
04:42So can there be negotiations or possibility of a negotiation with this kind of escalation?
04:50Sure.
04:50You know, remember the famous Chinese leader, Zhou Enlai, during the Chinese Civil War, during World War II,
04:57he was often in the Chinese nationalist capital negotiating, even as the Civil War went on.
05:05And he described the communist strategy back then as fight, fight, fight, talk, talk, talk.
05:10I think it's entirely possible to do both simultaneously.
05:14Okay.
05:15So you're saying that both can happen simultaneously.
05:19But when President Trump speculates that maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen,
05:27who knows, does this reveal loss of control over events?
05:32Well, I think he's in that tweet, if I recall correctly, or in that social media posting,
05:38he says there's been a complete and total regime change in Iran.
05:41Yes.
05:42Which is certainly not true.
05:43But he wants to be able to say that because that facilitates his ability at some point to declare victory.
05:49And it was in that context.
05:51It's they're smarter, they're more moderate and so on.
05:53Maybe something revolutionary will happen.
05:55He's dreaming.
05:56The people who are in charge now, to the extent anybody's in charge,
06:00are at least as radical as the 400 or 500 top leaders who have already been eliminated.
06:05So who's really in charge in Washington here?
06:08If we are looking at that first layer of leadership in Iran has been eliminated,
06:15then who is really in control in Washington?
06:17Is President Trump really in control of this war and the events?
06:21Well, he's in control, but he's been contradicting himself really since the beginning,
06:27what his objectives really are.
06:29I mean, I come from the perspective of somebody who thinks that it's regime change
06:33that's the legitimate objective we should be after.
06:36Not that I think that's necessarily what Trump is doing.
06:39I think part of his problem is he changes his goals and his tactics every day without any sense of
06:45a plan.
06:47So, Ambassador, if no agreement emerges tonight after Donald Trump's warning, what follows?
06:53Further strikes on power plants and bridges, additional rescues,
06:57or the president simply declaring victory while the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked?
07:04Well, I think all of these possibilities are on the table for him.
07:08I don't think he's made up his mind even at this stage.
07:11So, my guess, as I mentioned, is he will strike militarily and say this is simply a small sample
07:19of what we could have done, but to show what a kind-hearted man I am,
07:23I'm going to give the regime seven more days or something like that.
07:25He'll try and have the best of both possible worlds,
07:28and it may work out that it actually turns out to be worse.
07:32But there's no certain way to predict before 8 o'clock comes.
07:37Are you then saying that perhaps the world will end up being more confused now?
07:41And who will be more confused, Iran, America's allies,
07:45or does it merely highlight disarray inside the U.S. administration?
07:51Well, I think it represents disarray within Donald Trump.
07:55I think it's critical to clear the Strait of Hormuz,
07:58to allow all traffic to go through, not just traffic controlled by Iran.
08:02And if the U.S. military doesn't clear it now, the next time Iran tries to close the Strait, who
08:09will?
08:10Okay, in fact, now more news that is coming in, Ambassador,
08:14that the U.S. oil price has jumped over 2% after reports of U.S.-Israeli strikes on the Khark
08:21Island.
08:21The Khark Island strike is something that Donald Trump had been speaking about,
08:26and he has gone ahead and struck it even as the deadline approaches.
08:30Right. All I can say is what I'm hearing over news here in Washington,
08:35and that is the Defense Department saying these are strikes at missile storage facilities
08:40and other military targets, not strikes at Khark Island's oil facilities.
08:46That would be consistent with the strikes we carried out, I think, a couple of weeks ago now,
08:50because the Iranians had stored a lot of military equipment on Khark Island,
08:55and those have been the targets. I think that's the target today, not the oil-loading infrastructure.
09:01Okay, that brings me to my last question, because although President Trump's tweet has been very ominous in many ways,
09:08the U.S. officials, including J.D. Wands, is signaling through their multiple messaging,
09:15is that they are in touch with the Iranians, and they are hopeful and positive of some kind of solution
09:24by the end of the day.
09:27Are you of the opinion that that is really not on the table,
09:32that this is going to be essentially pushing off the deadlines, another seven days, another five days, perhaps?
09:40Well, I don't think they're going to reach agreement.
09:42Look, they haven't been face-to-face across the table, Iran and U.S. negotiators.
09:46It's all been done through intermediators, and they can do a lot of work.
09:51But ultimately, if you're going to have an agreement with somebody, at least in my view, a real agreement,
09:55you need to look them in the eye and make sure that you really are in agreement.
09:59I think Vance is trying to calm the markets as best he can from Hungary,
10:04and I think the seesawing will probably just go on and on all day.
10:09But given the trust deficit that is there on both the sides,
10:13they can't really have a face-to-face, on-the-table talk.
10:18Well, I think that's right.
10:19The Pakistanis had offered at some point for both parties to go to Islamabad.
10:25That was 10 days ago.
10:27It didn't happen.
10:28And I think that's because there really is no closure of the gap between Iran and the United States and
10:35Israel on this point.
10:36And, you know, you can try and paper it over rhetorically, but ultimately the test is,
10:42can you put it down on a piece of paper that both sides agree to?
10:45And clearly they have not done that.
10:47Ambassador Bolton, that brings me to my last question.
10:49And this is, of course, very difficult because nobody really knows what's going inside the mind of the U.S.
10:55president.
10:55But what do you think will happen at the end of this deadline?
11:00As someone who understands the U.S. administration, if not the U.S. president?
11:05And it is a guess, of course.
11:07But I think there will be strikes on infrastructure targets that have a relationship to the military.
11:13Trump will say, I just did a little bit of what I could have done just to show the Iranian
11:18authorities they need to deal.
11:20And out of the goodness of my heart, I'm going to extend the deadline another seven days.
11:25But Iran then in turn would continue to strike, as reports are coming in from UAE and other parts of
11:31the GCC,
11:33critical infrastructure in those places as well.
11:36So has that been factored in by the U.S. president?
11:40Yeah, look, I don't think this thing is going to end happily.
11:42I think the only way it can end is by changing the regime in Tehran, and that requires patience and
11:49persistence.
11:50I think Israel certainly has the objective of removing the regime.
11:55Trump's trying to say, I've already done it by killing the top three or four hundred leaders, but he hasn't.
12:00So unless we want to consider this operation what the Israelis call mowing the lawn,
12:05meaning we're going to have to come back at some point and mow it again at great potential risk as
12:12Iran continues its nuclear weapons program,
12:14I think the thing to do is to try, with the Arab states, with Israel, with others who will join
12:20us,
12:21to help the people of Iran out by helping them overthrow the regime.
12:26All right. Ambassador John Bolton, really appreciate your time.
12:29Thank you for joining us.
12:31Thanks for having me.
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