00:00Russia has begun an early spring offensive in Ukraine,
00:04intensifying fighting along the eastern front after a winter pause.
00:07Russian forces are focusing on the Donbass so-called Fortress Belt,
00:11using drones, missiles and mechanized assaults to test Ukrainian defenses.
00:15Along the 1,250-kilometer front line, both sides are stepping up strikes,
00:20including major drone exchanges.
00:21For now, Russia has made only limited gains,
00:24but is attempting to expand footholds in eastern and southern regions.
00:27Ukraine says it's holding its positions under heavy pressure.
00:31Monty Francis gives us the latest.
00:34The people who live in this apartment building in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro
00:37got the shock of their lives when a Russian drone struck early Thursday morning
00:42as most of them slept, setting fire to the first two floors.
00:46I was in bed when I heard the sound of the incoming drone.
00:50I couldn't believe it at first until the very moment it struck.
00:53All of our windows were blown out.
00:55I was in shock and didn't know what to do.
00:57It was just one of almost 1,000 drones launched by Moscow at Ukraine since Tuesday,
01:04along with 34 missiles and one of the largest aerial attacks of the war.
01:08Kiev responded with almost 400 drones of its own,
01:12targeting Russia and occupied Crimea,
01:14in what's believed to be the largest overnight attack by Kiev
01:17since the war began more than four years ago.
01:20Meanwhile, the Ukrainian president told Reuters that the Trump administration
01:24is pressuring Ukraine to cede the rest of the eastern Donbass region to Russia to end the war,
01:31a land area that covers about 5,000 square kilometers.
01:34But Zelensky says giving up the territory would just play into Putin's hands.
01:40Therefore, I believe that withdrawing from the east of our country poses a high risk to Ukraine and to Europe.
01:49At a gathering of G7 diplomats outside of Paris, the EU's foreign policy chief said she agrees.
01:56It is, of course, the Russian playbook of negotiations that they are demanding something that has never been theirs.
02:04And that's why we are also flagging that this is the trap that we should not walk into.
02:10With the world's attention on the war in the Middle East,
02:13Zelensky made a surprise visit to Saudi Arabia Thursday,
02:16hoping to leverage Ukraine's expertise in defending itself against drone attacks,
02:21swapping drone interceptors for air defense missiles it needs to fend off Russian missile attacks.
02:29Joining us now for more analysis is retired Vice Admiral of the U.S. Navy, Robert B. Murat.
02:35Thanks to you so much for joining us, Robert.
02:37In terms of the spring offensive, we are about to see more aggression.
02:42What would convince you that this offensive is strategically successful,
02:47both on the side of Russia and on the side of Ukraine?
02:52Certainly a great question.
02:53I think, you know, as we enter the fighting season, as we call it,
02:56from the standpoint of the Ukrainians,
02:58I think it would be successful if they're able to continue to enforce the pretty tough stance
03:03they have had in the eastern and southern parts of their own country.
03:08Along those lines, I would, you know, mention that Russia has only gained about 1.5 percent
03:13of Ukrainian territory in the last three years.
03:16In fact, they've suffered some fairly significant losses, as you know,
03:19just in the last two to three weeks.
03:21That could shift, I mean, from the Russian standpoint, I think, you know,
03:25they certainly are key on that additional territory in the Donbass,
03:28as you were just mentioning, specifically in Donetsk,
03:31which is part of the negotiations that the United States is trying to broker right now.
03:36But unless there are very, very strong security guarantees,
03:39I just don't see any way that the leadership in Kiev is going to be willing to accept that.
03:43Well, those security guarantees is something that Vladimir Zelensky touched on
03:47in an interview with Reuters yesterday, an exclusive.
03:49He basically said that security guarantees from the United States were contingent on giving up the Donbass territory,
03:56which Ukraine has still 6,000 square kilometers under their control.
04:01If we can just remind ourselves and remind our viewers exactly what Zelensky said on that regard.
04:08Yeah, certainly what he said, and it was interesting, he also mentioned, and this is important,
04:13that the actual territory which Russia is asking to get as part of negotiated settlement
04:19is a major security guarantee for the Ukrainians.
04:22From a tactical battlefield standpoint, and again, I defer to my army colleagues on that,
04:27it's my understanding that part of the Donetsk province is strategically important
04:33and also is kind of a major pathway, not just into the rest of Ukraine,
04:38but really throughout Western Europe because of the territory that it comprises.
04:42So, I mean, the territory itself is a security guarantee.
04:45And the other thing is, any situation where the Ukrainians would be willing to give this up,
04:51I think, have to be predicated upon assurances that Russia won't ask for more.
04:58And I don't see any evidence of that at all.
05:00You know, when you listen to what President Putin is saying and his tight-knit group in the Kremlin there,
05:05they have not backed off their maximalist gains, you know, the underlying causes,
05:10assurances that they want from Ukraine to, you know, completely reduce the size of their military,
05:17reject any future NATO membership and even potentially membership in the European Union.
05:21So I don't see, my own sense is looking at this, that even if they were to give up that
05:25territory
05:26and provide it to the Kremlin, that would not be the end of the discussion.
05:30The Kremlin would actually continue to ask for a lot more.
05:32We'll touch on that exact point just after we hear from Zelensky yesterday.
05:44Americans are ready to finalise these guarantees at a high level once Ukraine is ready to withdraw from Donbass.
05:53In my view, the Russian side is shaping the atmosphere in its dialogue with the Americans around this very idea
06:01that Ukraine should withdraw from the Donbass,
06:04the United States will then provide the security guarantees Ukraine is seeking,
06:08and Russians will certainly end this war.
06:12More or less, this is the triangle we find ourselves in.
06:17Robert, Zelensky was referring there to that fortified belt in Donetsk and in the Donbass region at large.
06:25If you can just tell us about that belt and why it is so crucial
06:30and what that actually would mean for Europe if those Ukrainian defences were no longer there.
06:37It would certainly make it far easier for Russia to conduct offensive operations against Ukraine
06:43and potentially beyond Ukraine into Europe, Eastern Europe and beyond.
06:49It is very much a pathway.
06:50You know, we always used to study the Folder Gap during the Cold War
06:53in terms of the point of entry from the then Soviet forces into Western Europe.
06:58There are some parallels between the Folder Gap, which we studied so carefully during the Cold War,
07:03and that region, those parts of what I'll describe as northwestern Donetsk province,
07:08which provide a veritable highway for any army that wanted to conduct operations further into Ukraine and beyond.
07:16And then you mentioned those very small gains that Russia has only been able to make.
07:22It took them forever to make inroads into Bokrovsk, for instance.
07:27What is actually there for Ukraine to say,
07:30OK, well, we should actually listen to this?
07:33I mean, it doesn't seem like they would be inclined in any iota to cede any territorial possession.
07:42I think it's directly related, as you were mentioning earlier,
07:45to the level of confidence they would have in whatever security guarantees can be provided.
07:50And to be frank, I think there's a justifiable skepticism in Kiev right now
07:57in terms of any security guarantees that might be provided by the current leadership in the United States.
08:01I say that reluctantly.
08:03On the other hand, if there were to be more extensive, you know, real and, you know,
08:08in strategic planning, we tend to draw the distinction between peacekeeping operations
08:12and peace enforcement operations.
08:14But just, you know, for example, if we were to have peace enforcement operations
08:19along the forward line that exists right now between Russian-occupied territory
08:24and Ukrainian territory, comprised of, like, many Western European nations and others from,
08:29I'm just making this up, you know, Japan, India and so forth,
08:32a large international footprint of ground forces that Russia would have to contend with
08:38if they were new defensive operations in the future,
08:40I think that would give the Ukrainians a lot more confidence.
08:43How many casualties, though, are we looking at from the Russian side
08:46if they actually decide, you know what, we're going to try and take Donbass?
08:51It would be catastrophic.
08:53I mean, I've seen different estimates.
08:55They're well under the tens of thousands.
08:56But, you know, the real backdrop is just the horrific level of killed and wounded action
09:00that Russia has continued to take already, just in the operations they've conducted,
09:05especially in the last three years,
09:06and the disregard that the criminal leadership seems to have
09:10for the high levels of killed and wounded action
09:13that are being inflicted upon the Russian army.
09:15And what do you think it's going to take for the Donald Trump administration
09:20to actually start putting the pressure on Moscow?
09:23Because Zelensky, in that same interview,
09:25he said that it always seems to be Ukraine who receives the pressure from Washington
09:29to make amendments to cede where they otherwise would have held strong.
09:33So what is it going to actually take to twist Donald Trump's arm
09:36and get the pressure back on Putin?
09:40I think a very much increased level of pressure of all sorts,
09:45including increased sanctions, increased arms provision to Ukraine,
09:51and assisted, you know, continued diplomatic pressure on Moscow and isolation.
09:57They're working very closely with our partners in Western Europe and North America,
10:01the Canadians certainly.
10:02And I'd like to say that I see the administration doing that in the near future,
10:06but it doesn't seem to be in the cards.
10:08And the projection, the bottom line that that kind of delivers for you
10:12is a continued stalemate and one that could continue for some time.
10:16And do you think that the current war in the Middle East
10:18has basically exacerbated that and actually provided Russia
10:20the necessary breathing space on the battlefield?
10:24It's provided them a certain amount of breathing space,
10:28and certainly a distraction in terms of the international press.
10:31However, you know, the two main factors for the war so far,
10:34as we go beyond four years,
10:36is that people continue to underestimate two things, I would say.
10:40The first thing they underestimate is the capability of the Ukrainian armed forces
10:44and just how good they are at defending their territory.
10:47The second thing that people continue to underestimate
10:49is how hard-nosed and dug-in the position of the Kremlin,
10:53that insular group of people in the Kremlin right now,
10:56including Putin and his deputies,
10:58have in their maximalist domains.
10:59They don't want just that territory in the Donbass.
11:02They want assurances that a peacekeeping force will not be that strong.
11:08They want assurances that there will be a decline in the capability of the Ukrainian military,
11:13rejection of future NATO membership,
11:15and even potentially, as I was saying, even European Union membership for NATO.
11:20And they want a new administration.
11:22They don't want to have to deal with the existing leadership that exists in Kiev,
11:27which has been so capable.
11:29And this also comes as NATO says,
11:31that all U.S. weapons for Ukraine,
11:33funded by Kiev's allies through a special NATO program,
11:35have been delivered or continue to be delivered to the country.
11:39Robert B. Murray, thank you so much
11:41for just providing all of that fascinating insight and analysis
11:45there on the current situation on the ground,
11:47after those comments by Vladimir Zelensky as well.
11:51Let's just...
11:51Let's just...
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