- 5 hours ago
Following 24 days of escalating conflict in West Asia, US President Donald Trump on Monday announced a five-day pause on military strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, citing productive conversations.
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00:00We're starting on 5 Live with a bray of hope or is it really one? We'll analyze that on the
00:05program for the first time in 24 days of the war. For the first time, words like de-escalation,
00:14words like let's talk, words like back channel conversation have entered the discussion.
00:22And these words have come from Donald Trump. Remember Donald Trump just moments ago has now
00:29made it public that he has instructed his department of war to postpone any and all
00:35military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a period of five days.
00:42So think of it like a testing days, five testing days where U.S. says they will not be attacking
00:49any military or any sort of making any sort of attacks and strikes at Iran or their energy
00:58infrastructure. And during this time, they say there will be discussions since they are already
01:04underway. Also an important message coming in from Donald Trump at the end of 24 days of war,
01:11a West Asia war that has got the entire globe in its grip. It impacts you and me in different
01:16ways.
01:17It impacts Europe in different ways. It impacts pharma industry, airlines, energy, all of it.
01:24And now finally, Donald Trump says that U.S. and Iran have had over the last two days very good
01:30productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of the hostilities in the Middle
01:38East. So how are we to read these statements? Let me cut across to our experts, Geeta Mohan and
01:45also Sandeep is here with us. Sandeep, let me come to you very quickly. How do you, what do you
01:49make of
01:50these statements at the moment? Because the fact is, we haven't got a reply from Iran just yet. Also
01:55too early. These statements have just come out. Should we be taking them at face value that this
02:01has come after U.S. has heard back from Iran and also after they've got their own allies, Ukraine,
02:10also, you know, Begibar and Israel also in the hold on this one?
02:14Well, very significant announcement from President Trump. But there are two ways of looking at it.
02:19One is that the U.S., after 24 days of conflict, hasn't been able to break Iran's will, hasn't been
02:26able to stop the missile strikes, the attacks on the GCC countries, the Arab countries south of the
02:32Persian Gulf, and is therefore looking for a way out of the situation. Iran has reacted in ways that
02:38the U.S. did not expect it would. Unpredictability is what Tehran has demonstrated and resilience.
02:44They've shut down the Straits of Hormuz, where 20 percent of the world's oil and gas flows through.
02:49They've expanded the theater of conflict to attack GCC countries. The other way of looking
02:55at it, Sonal, is that Trump is possibly buying time before major forces come into the theater.
03:01We've discussed this. There are two amphibious-ready groups of the United States, Navy, Marine Corps,
03:07steaming towards the Persian Gulf. The U.S. has Tripoli, ARG's on course. The U.S.
03:11has already started off from the West Coast. So Trump is possibly looking for a window of opportunity.
03:17When talks are on, he can get major forces in and threaten Iran with boots on the ground,
03:22but possibly looking for an off-ramp. My personal sense is that he wants an off-ramp. It's been a
03:28month. There's tremendous pressure on the United States from their Arab allies in the Gulf because
03:33they have been hit harder than Israel. Israel is prepared for this kind of retaliation,
03:39not the GCC countries who have seen their oil, infrastructure, tourism, everything shattered.
03:45So that's a very significant thing that Iran has done. So we are possibly looking at an off-ramp
03:50here, Sonal. Right. So Sandeep saying that this is just an off-ramp that U.S. has been
03:54voting for and perhaps buying time for a more sort of for a military attack that will follow.
04:01Gaurav Savant also with us now. Gaurav, what are you making of these statements?
04:04So this is a very significant statement coming close on the heels of the deadline approaching
04:10for targeting power plants. But then the fact that Iran said it will continue to hit and hit hard
04:15across the region may have prompted America to think twice, especially when it does not have
04:20the kind of forces it needs on ground to be able to either take control of Khark Island or the
04:25state of Hormuz. And till it's in a position to do so, well, there are words of support that are
04:30coming from this 22-country coalition, including countries like Japan and South Korea and several
04:36NATO countries, but they don't have boots on ground or ships in these waters. Till that happens,
04:42America will have to take it a little easy. Will this lead to an off-ramp and some kind of
04:48a solution,
04:48whether it brings peace for a decade or longer? There are many analysts who argue that Iran will
04:54use every opportunity now to make that bomb. Once it has the nuclear bomb, no country will then be in
05:01a position to mount this kind of an attack on Iran. And that is why everyone's being very,
05:07very careful and cagey about this. Yes, you want peace, but you want lasting peace. You do not want
05:13temporary truce right now and then the war to escalate later. So it remains to be seen how this
05:19pans out. Next 24 to 48 hours remain extremely crucial.
05:22All right. So a lot of people actually, Gaurav and Sandeep, both not very optimistic about
05:27the de-escalation at the moment, or at least the talks that are being floated for de-escalation at
05:34the moment. Let me just take a pause from our reporters at the moment and bring you the top
05:37five takeaways from what we are making here at India today of this latest statement by Donald Trump.
05:44Takeaway number one, what this means is that US-Iran are actually open to ending this war.
05:50That's a very, very significant step forward. When these tweets sort of came in immediately,
05:56what this means is this, that US and Iran are now open to ending the war. But what about takeaway
06:03number two, that oil and energy prices are likely to stabilize as well, at least in the short term.
06:09Markets will also respond positively, at least in the short term, to a news like this coming in.
06:15Remember, we still haven't heard back from Iran on what they feel about it. We haven't heard back
06:19from Israel as well, but we wait to see how that happens. Which brings me to takeaway number
06:24three. Dialogue and diplomacy have been given a chance at, after all, after everything, dialogue
06:32and diplomacy have been given a chance after 24 days of this West Asia war escalating. And takeaway
06:38number four, opportunity for the world markets also to recover at this point. But let me bring in
06:44Geeta at this point. Okay. All right. I'm told we have an exclusive guest joining us now. This is
06:52Saul Sadka, security analyst and author, joining us from Tel Aviv. Thank you so much for your time,
06:58sir. Let me quickly get your first reactions. You must have seen the statement that has come in from
07:03Donald Trump. He's saying there'll be a five day sort of pause on any attack that US will be making
07:08in
07:08Iran. Well, yes, I think this is really a follow on from the threat that came in nearly 48 hours
07:15ago,
07:15where Trump threatened that unless the Iranians stopped blockading the Straits of Hormuz,
07:21he would be attacking the critical energy infrastructure, including a list of five power
07:28plants. So he doesn't seem to want to do that. He doesn't want to escalate in that direction.
07:33And whether or not the reality behind the scenes is that there are actual negotiations with whatever
07:39is left of the IRGC, or if this is simply an opportunity to take an off ramp in that direction
07:47to avoid this kind of escalation is unclear. Yet the truth is that over the past three weeks,
07:54Iran's offensive capability has been reduced by at least 90%. Here in Tel Aviv, we still get the
08:01occasional missile coming in Dubai, they're still getting the occasional drone coming in. Yet the
08:08tempo and intensity are down so vastly that it seems that the main work of neutering Iran as a threat
08:19to the region has been done. Although work remains to be done here. That's no question. There is work
08:27that still remains. There will be a long tail. Getting that last 10% will always be the hardest
08:32part. And the question is, is Trump looking at the situation and saying that he would rather wind
08:39things down or reduce the offensive capabilities over a longer period by low intensity warfare over a
08:47couple of months, that he could then call an end to effectively the main part of the hostilities and
08:53then just keep attacking on a slower basis. Or if this is more of a ruse, as we have seen
09:00with Trump
09:00many times before, that just like the Iranians, 25 years have been using the promise of talks and
09:06negotiations as a ruse to build their nuclear program. Trump has also been willing to use those tricks.
09:12Right. Mr. Satka, it's interesting what you're saying about the intensity of attacks that have been
09:17coming in from Iran in the past couple of days, because this statement from Trump has come even
09:22before the deadline. His only set out deadline for the state of foremost to start functioning ended.
09:28The fact that it's come before that, what does it tell you?
09:33Well, I think it's only come before that by a few hours. We could check the timing.
09:39About 15, 16 hours or so. Yeah.
09:42Right. OK. So as in it's come before the end of the deadline, it's unclear if there are actual
09:47negotiations going on. If I was an Iranian leader, for example, I would be quite nervous about picking
09:54up the phone and speaking to anyone on the other side who was claiming to be on talking on behalf
09:59of the
09:59Americans, because, you know, they've lost so many other leaders in the past three weeks.
10:03I would think that would probably be a almost a death sentence. But it could be that there are
10:07talks going on and it could be there also aren't. And this is a ruse. We'll find out in the
10:12end.
10:13The main thing really is that from Israel's perspective and from the United States's
10:17perspective, the main goals of this war have primarily already been achieved. And at some point,
10:25the leaders will consider the risk of diminishing returns, considering also that they can continue
10:32to degrade Iran's capabilities now, that they have no air defense, no Navy, no air force,
10:37and the vast majority of their missiles are gone. They can continue doing that really at their leisure,
10:41at a slower pace, if that's what they want to do.
10:44OK, Mr. Saadkar, my colleagues Sandeep and Gaurav are also here. I'll encourage them to ask
10:48questions as well. But my question to you at this point is this. Do you think this de-escalation has
10:53come at a time when there was enough pressure on Donald Trump, even domestically,
10:59to ask for an off-ramp?
11:02I don't think so. When you look at the polling in the United States, his base, which is really
11:07what he cares about, is 90% in favor of what he's been doing. And even a majority of the
11:13American
11:13public who answer questions also support the war. 80% of the American public, when asked,
11:19agree with the statement that the American people should be helping the Iranian people get free of
11:26their regime. And removing the regime is not even one of the official goals of the war. That is
11:31something that the Americans are quite open about wanting to happen in the long run, but they
11:36haven't made it an official war goal. So the American people at large, particularly Trump's base, are
11:40definitely behind this war and these actions. So I don't think there's any kind of pressure from
11:45that direction.
11:46All right. Gaurav?
11:48Did the Americans, if I may, did the Americans and the Israelis underestimate Iran's capabilities to hit
11:54and hit back and hard? Look at the manner in which they continue to strike. If Natanz is struck,
12:00then, you know, Demona is targeted. If a desalination plant was targeted in the southern part of Iran,
12:06then a desalination plant was targeted in Bahrain. All the radars were taken out. American bases are very
12:14vulnerable. Did America anticipate this? And especially the Strait of Hormuz, where it's
12:20practically choked. And isn't that the reason why America is being forced to scale back?
12:26America, there's nothing in Trump's statement that says that America is scaling back their attacks. On
12:30the contrary, when you look at the flight tracking situation, you can see that they're actually sending
12:34in even more planes. As to the question of whether the Americans and the Israelis underestimated
12:40the ability of Iran to fight, I would say quite the contrary. On the contrary, they, if anything,
12:47overestimated, the performance of the Iranians in fighting back has been much less than what anyone,
12:53even the most pessimistic observers anticipated. They have really, the effects that they managed to
13:00achieve, for example, on Israel, because I know the numbers here. In Israel, they have fired approximately
13:05400 ballistic missiles at Israel over the past three weeks. That has now been already reduced to a
13:10trickle after just three weeks. They're shooting one or two per day. And they have had no military
13:16impact at all. They haven't managed to hit any military targets of any value or in any form. No
13:22military targets. And they've managed to kill about 15 civilians. That's it. And the similar effects have
13:28been seen in Dubai. They managed to hit a couple of radars in the Gulf, but those radars have already
13:33been
13:34replaced because those are multiply redundant systems. So they have had zero effect militarily
13:40on the United States military. And what, in return for killing 20 civilians across the region
13:47and destroying some radars, they have lost their entire navy and their entire air force and their
13:52entire air defense. This is what we're seeing in the most one-sided war in human history.
13:57They still retain the ability to strike. Global shipping has come to a virtual standstill in the
14:02strait of Hormuz. And it's not just Iran, it's not just Israel and America. Now the whole world is suffering.
14:08It's not just... So here's the problem. It's not that it's not just Israel and America that's
14:13suffering from the closure of the straits of Hormuz. It's specifically not them. The Israelis and the
14:18Americans are very dependent in a very minor way on what goes through the straits of Hormuz.
14:23It is the Chinese, it is about Japanese in particular, and also in India, where they are
14:28dependent on that kind of thing. So Iran is unable to strike back to America and Israel in any meaningful
14:34way by closing the straits of Hormuz, except via pressure from third-party countries who might be
14:40annoyed at the prospect of the straits of Hormuz being closed. Now Trump isn't a man who particularly
14:45cares about that kind of thing. So they are unable to leverage that in a great way. And my guess
14:51is
14:51that over the next couple of weeks, unless Iran literally agrees to hand over the remains of its
14:55uranium and essentially give Trump whatever he's asking, we will see the straits of Hormuz closure
15:01being rolled back. Because the Americans have been preparing for the closure of the straits of Hormuz
15:06for 25 years. And they are the most powerful military the world has ever seen by far. And I guarantee
15:11you the very smart military planners in the American Navy and Air Force have got a plan lined
15:17up for that. And we're already seeing that playing out by the way. Mr. Satkar stay on with us because
15:22you talked about stuff that Donald Trump is careless about. Let's talk about stuff that he is actually
15:27careful about, which is fuel prices. And on that there is news coming in just minutes after his statement
15:32has come in. We can now tell our viewers that after the pause that has been proposed by Donald Trump,
15:38Brent crude oil prices have fallen. Brent crude prices now are down by 11%. Brent crude currently
15:45trading at about $101 per barrel, an 11% downfall that we've seen just merely on the statement that
15:54there could be a possible de-escalation. Which is why I was asking the question that ultimately it's the
16:02price that the entire world is paying for this war that has perhaps prompted Donald Trump to say that,
16:10okay, we've got to take a pause now and we've got to recalibrate the entire situation. Sandeep,
16:15what would you say? Absolutely, Sonal, you know, Iran has made the whole world its theater. You know,
16:21if the US and Israel thought that this war could be confined to just Iran, Iran has
16:27horizontally escalated. It's widened this conflict by shutting the Straits of Hormuz and by targeting
16:32the GCC countries. And today everybody is worried about the price of oil and Iran has done precisely
16:37that. You know, Saul Sadka made the points about Iran's navy and air force. Now, Iran has never had
16:43an effective navy or an air force. All it's had is this ballistic missile capability and the cruise missiles
16:48and of course the drones, which even the United States is now reverse engineering and making. The
16:53world's most powerful military is actually borrowing technology from Iran and reverse engineering it
16:59and putting it into the field. That tells you a lot about Iranian ingenuity. Now, the fact is that
17:05even a situation where there would be no regime change, that would leave an Iranian regime that's
17:12wounded, angry and possibly going down exactly the path that the US did not want them to, which is
17:19going down the path of getting nuclear weapons. So, that is a very dangerous situation that we're
17:24looking at.
17:25Yeah. Saul Sadka, let me come back to you. You know, just yesterday, I'm just trying to understand the
17:29timeline of the entire situation and Gaurav and Sandeep encourage you to sort of step in as well.
17:35Just yesterday, we were reporting how Donald Trump said that we don't know who to talk to.
17:40Just yesterday, he had ruled out talks altogether. He said, we were talking to their heads,
17:45they are gone. Then we spoke to the second line of command, they are gone. Then we spoke to the
17:49third line of command, they are almost gone. We don't know who to talk to. And on the other hand,
17:53you had Iran who came out to say that, well, how do we talk to somebody who keeps saying you're
17:57fired
17:58all the time? How do we talk to someone who is constantly changing goalposts? So, what changed
18:03in the past 24 hours, would you say, Saul Sadka, to come to this?
18:10Well, Donald Trump has always been mercurial in this way. He'll put out different statements from
18:15day to day, sending things in different directions. And the fact that the oil prices fell, that might
18:21have been the primary driver of what he just said. That might have really been the reason that he felt
18:26the prices are going too high. And he wanted to put out a statement to calm the oil markets and
18:31get
18:31the prices to go down. We don't know. All right, just hold on to that. So, we've got the first
18:34reaction
18:35coming in from Iran on Trump's statement. Let's quickly understand that. Iran now saying that Trump
18:41retreats after firm warning. Iranian embassy in now Kabul has made a statement to say that after the
18:47Islamic Republic threatened that in the event of US attack on Iran's energy infrastructure, it would target
18:53the energy infrastructure of the entire region. Trump backed down and stated that he has issued an
19:00order to postpone the attack. All right, so not accepting the five-day pause, not responding to
19:08Trump, sort of just beating a little bit, if I can say that, Sandeep, to say that this is the
19:14reason why
19:15the pause has happened, not really responding to the pause, are they? Well, clearly not. And if you see
19:22the statements over the last 48 hours or so from Iran, Foreign Minister Aragachi has said that there's no
19:28point of having talks with the United States. There's the military spokesperson of the Iranians
19:34kind of, you know, cocked a snook at Trump and he used his lines, you're fired and all of that.
19:39The Iranians seem to indicate that they have the escalation dominance here and that is what they are
19:46constantly reinforcing. The fact is they possibly sense that the US is running out of options here
19:53and they want to indicate that they have the high ground. Because as we discussed Sonal, the fact is
19:57that Iran seems very unhappy over the fact that they were attacked when talks were on and they believe
20:04that this could be a pause and there could be another series of attacks by the United States,
20:09say next year. They want some kind of cast-iron guarantees that there will not be more attacks
20:14on the Iranian regime. Vulnerable as it is, the regime has continued, it survived. And that is,
20:20you know, for the weaker side, all the weaker side has to do is to survive. The stronger side has
20:25to
20:25enforce a defeat, a comprehensive military defeat. The other side has to say, I surrender. That has not
20:31happened in this situation. So, for Iran, whatever little victory that they sense, they possibly think
20:37that they have the high ground. They have escalation dominance in this case and they are buttressing
20:42that fact by all of these statements that we just... And this statement is also anything but
20:47surrender. This statement is actually anything but accepting talks as well. This statement is
20:51anything but accepting that pause either. Gaurav, wouldn't you agree? Oh, absolutely. There is nothing
20:57that suggests and, you know, there's nothing that suggests that Iran is backing down. So far,
21:02Iran hasn't escalated. Iran has responded measure for measure, bomb for bomb. If their nuclear facilities
21:11were targeted, they've targeted nuclear facilities of Israel. If their desalination plant was targeted,
21:18they've done the same. If their gas was targeted, they targeted oil, you know, of Qatar. So,
21:24they have responded and indicated and shown, proven to the world that they retain their ability to
21:29strike. Now, Iran may not have a navy, Iran may not have an air force, but they have the weapons
21:35that
21:35are required to keep the adversary on the back foot. In this case, the United States, most powerful
21:40country in the world, unable to get into the Strait of Hormuz. NATO alliance partners, not very keen to get
21:47into the Strait of Hormuz. Japan, unwilling to get into the Strait of Hormuz. Even if they do, they want
21:52to
21:52talk to Iran and come out and find a solution. So, and they still retain the undersea drones. They
21:59still retain the Shahid drones. This is the changing nature of the battlefield. This is 21st century
22:05warfare, where a far superior country is and does not really have the kind of advantage it seeks to
22:10have even after 24 days. Quickly add to what Gaurav just said. You know, what Gaurav has actually said
22:17is that Iran retains the C2. The command and control has not been disrupted. I mean, imagine this,
22:2324 days of relentless bombing by two of the most powerful, most competent air forces in the world,
22:30the Israeli Air Force and the US Air Force. I actually rate the Israeli Air Force better than the
22:33US Air Force. They've been pounding Iran for 24 days, but Iran retains its command and control over
22:40all its missiles and its drones. Whatever little forces they have, they're able to marshal the
22:44forces and respond within hours, retaliate. That is a very important aspect. And they retain command
22:50and control, which is remarkable for, you know, after almost a month of non-stop bombing. So that is,
22:58that tells you something about the fact that Iran has prepared for this situation for several decades now,
23:04Sonal. Interesting. I want to go across to Mr. Sadak as well to get a quick reaction on
23:09how Iran has responded. But before that, more breaking news is coming. So bear with me.
23:13And this one is about GIF Nifty, actually up by 800 points after Trump announcement
23:17caused on Iranian strikes. GIF Nifty indicates that likely opening direction of Nifty 50, remember,
23:24index tomorrow, which basically sees indicating that the markets are going to be very happy about
23:29the entire arrangement as well. If not in the long term, at least for the next,
23:34till the time we hear of the next bombing at least. So temporary, in the short term,
23:40we are seeing some green coming in from the markets here in India. At least Shailendra Bhatnagar,
23:47my colleague joins us for more on this. Shailendra, explain why GIF Nifty is such an indicator of what
23:53happens when markets open tomorrow. So before we start rejoicing and parting on this development,
24:01we know that Mr. Trump is often known as the taco trade, which is Trump always chickens out. And that
24:09is visible in the market as of now. What happens tomorrow and between midnight and tomorrow only time
24:15will tell. But Sonal, this is the time to sort of be thankful that Spain since has prevailed both over
24:23the US and the Iranian fighting machines. They have pulled back. And obviously, we had seen the Nifty
24:32and the Bank Nifty and the Sensex being the worst indices year to date globally, down about 14-15%.
24:39This will bring a sigh of relief to troubled investors and should be a starting point for good
24:47investments. We hope Diwali will be better than March of 2026. And that the worst is behind us.
24:56All right. Shailendra, they're saying that before we start rejoicing, there is a few hours before Donald
25:03Trump actually wakes up and then we see more reactions actually coming into that. Mr. Sarak,
25:08let me come back to you. You haven't had a chance to sort of give in your reactions to how
25:12Iran
25:13responded. Let me give you that word then. Mr. Sarak, if you can hear me? Hello? Yes, please go ahead.
25:25Go ahead. Yes, sorry. So I listened to what the other panelists say and while I agree with some of
25:30the
25:30things they say, I would say at the same time that we have to notice that while Iran are still
25:36able to
25:36shoot off a few drones and a few missiles here and there, the fact that within just three weeks,
25:42that ability, after literally 30 years of preparing for this battle, their ability to fight back has
25:49been reduced by 90 to 95%. That for them is a catastrophe. And while they are indeed able to
25:57shoot the occasional rocket, they aren't able to target anything accurately. So for example, after their
26:02nuclear plant was attacked, they managed to fire off two rockets in the direction of the Demona nuclear
26:10plant in Israel. They missed with both those rockets by a factor of approximately 20 kilometers in either
26:17direction. Okay. So what they have to fight back with is extremely poor quality weaponry that doesn't
26:25pose any real threat to their rivals. They are losing approximately, for every piece of damage,
26:33for every unit of damage that they managed to do to Israel and the United States, to Dubai, to Qatar,
26:39Saudis, they are suffering a thousand times more, maybe 10,000 times more. As I said, this is the most
26:46uneven fight in the history of warfare. All right, Mr. Satka, thank you so much for joining us with your
26:51perspective here on the program. Let me come back to Sandeep and Gaurav on that one. Sandeep,
26:57let's talk a little positive. I understand nobody is really looking at this news and saying that this
27:02is going to continue. Everybody knows these statements from Donald Trump could flip in a matter of hours,
27:07if not minutes. Then at this point, what do you think will it take for actual genuine talks to
27:15actually happen? But before that, I'm sure I'm told more news is coming in. Let's quickly take our
27:19viewers through that. Iranian media now claims that citing source that there is no direct
27:25communication with the U.S. nor through intermediaries. Iranian media now reporting that
27:33Trump has reiterated after hearing that Iran would target all power plants in West Asia.
27:41So there are any media at least saying that there has been no direct communication with the U.S. nor
27:48through intermediaries. Sandeep, this basically means there is a massive, massive lack of trust between
27:55the two sides at the moment. One saying that we have had a chat, the other saying there is no
28:00conversation at all. So really, there is no way in which we can say that this five-day pause will
28:07indeed take place. Absolutely, Sonal. You know, there is that expression in military terminology
28:12called the fog of war. And we are clearly living through that fog of war where the U.S. president
28:16says one thing and the Iranian media says another. So we don't really know who to believe. But,
28:22you know, given that the fact is that the president did make that statement, but to answer your
28:29question on what is it that will really take the U.S. to start talks, the U.S. needs to
28:34establish,
28:35you know, ascendancy over Iran in some way that will force the Iranians to the negotiating table. And
28:42that is exactly what's going on right now. They're jockeying for that escalation dominance. The U.S. does not
28:47believe it has escalation dominance yet, which is why they're trying to get boots on the ground,
28:52capture some islands possibly, get into an advantageous position where they can force Iran
28:58to reopen the Straits of Hormuz. Because, you know, despite everything that we've just been talking
29:03about, Saul Sadka has made some very important points. But the fact is that the Straits of Hormuz
29:08are closed. And the two most powerful militaries in the world cannot get Iran to reopen the Straits of
29:14Hormuz. So, until the Straits are reopened, until the U.S. gets into an advantageous position, forces
29:21Iran to reopen the Straits of Hormuz, I don't think you're going to see very meaningful discussion. Iran
29:26is very clear that it cannot, it will not open the Straits. In fact, it's talking of negotiating an
29:31architecture where it will, you know, try and extract a toll from ships that are passing by in a manner
29:40that
29:40we've seen through the Suez and through the phosphorus. So, you know, in such a situation,
29:45both sides are unwilling to step down. Both sides are looking for escalation dominance.
29:50I don't know, both sides are willing to step down or no, because the way you're describing it,
29:53Sandeep, it makes me feel and, you know, Gaurav come in on this one. Is this, is this Donald Trump's
29:59way of saying, okay, we will not, you know, target you for the next five days? Will you now take
30:06one
30:07step towards our direction so we can finally get on the talking table? Is this Donald Trump's way of
30:13doing things? We do not know because, you know, especially Iran really would not trust Donald
30:19Trump's way of doing things. You know, whether it was Donald Trump walking out of a deal that had
30:24already been inked in 2017 on nuclear non-proliferation or Donald Trump being in dialogue,
30:33America and Iran were directly negotiating. While those negotiations were on, war plans were in place.
30:39So, America, was America using those, that time of dialogue to prepare to hit? And that is something
30:45that has really upset Iran and almost all Iranian leaders have said that. That how can you take
30:51America seriously? If they're having a dialogue with you, are they preparing? Are they regrouping?
30:55Are they waiting to rearm, to relaunch an attack? And this comes at a time, as Sandeep was just
30:59pointing out, that there are two, you know, marine expeditionary units that are on their way.
31:04One ex-San Diego, the other ex-Okinawa, which will take about, you know, five to ten days to get
31:10into these waters, for more navies to get into these waters, for 82nd airborne that's already curtailed some
31:16of its exercise reported to be perhaps gearing up to move to this area. All of this, does all of
31:22this
31:22indicate that this dialogue, is that news only coercive tactics or boots on ground is the next
31:29strategy? Because remember, the American Treasury Secretary, for example, Scott Besant said,
31:35words to the effect that they want to take control or they're looking at taking control of the Khark
31:39Island and that that will become American asset. So, what does that indicate? Iran clearly would gear up
31:45for a fight and fight till the time they're sure, either they remain in the war or there's genuine
31:51peace which will be guaranteed by someone and which clearly is not the United Nations. Guaranteed by
31:56someone. Are we looking at finally a third party getting into this? Sandeep, help me understand this.
32:01At a time when there is such massive trust deficit between the two sides, you yourself said that Iran
32:08now wants it in writing perhaps. What will it take for Iran to actually de-escalate or perhaps open up
32:15the
32:15state of Hormos, if at all? Is that even a possibility, do you think, at the moment?
32:20Well, you know, it all depends on the kind of guarantees that Iran will get in return for
32:26reopening, reopening the streets of Hormos. Right now they're saying you're not talking to anyone.
32:29That's right. So, but a few days back they did indicate, there were reports from the Iranian press
32:36which indicated that they would be willing to talk if provided they were given cast iron guarantees
32:40that there would not be further attacks on them. They want some kind of an architecture to guarantee
32:45that. Unfortunately, it doesn't appear to be one in place right now because as Gaurav was mentioning,
32:50they were very close to a deal on the 27th. The Omani Foreign Minister mentioned that and that's when
32:55the attacks took place. So, it's very hard. There is a huge trust deficit on both sides. The United Nations
33:01has lost all its relevance. They were negotiating through Oman. Now, which is that third country going to be?
33:07Could India perhaps play a role in this? These are questions that must be asked because
33:11there is a very, very serious trust deficit. And if you look at it from the Iranian perspective,
33:17every time they've come to the negotiating table, they have given concessions. The next president
33:22comes around, you know, unrivels the whole thing and then they're back to square one. And they've seen
33:27repeated attacks in 2025, in 2026 now. Possibly it would go on like this. This cycle will continue. And the
33:35problem from the U.S. perspective seems to be that the regime is still holding fast. It did not
33:42collapse the way they had intended it to on the 28th of February. There were a lot of miscalculations
33:47made in this war when they triggered it off, thinking that the regime would collapse. It would
33:52be, you know, a repeat of Venezuela. And that was a gross miscalculation. I think it is possibly after
33:58that, that they seem to have realized that Iranian regime isn't giving up and now options.
34:03Then is there a possibility that a third country, like you said, Sandeep, could actually get in?
34:08Would Trump even allow that? So far, he has sort of taken pride in calling himself as the one who
34:13brings wars to an end and brings in peace between nations. At this point, when U.S. themselves are at
34:19war and they don't, they seem to be isolated, you know, world over as well in this fight against Iran.
34:25Gaurav, is there a possibility that a third party can get in and bring both sides on board?
34:31No, but that third party will lose credibility if, you know, America or Iran break, you know, their trust
34:39or look at Oman, for example. Oman's foreign minister, he actually had to go to the United States,
34:44go on a television network and say that Iran's agreed to everything and yet the bombing happened.
34:49So it's loss of face for Oman. Oman was the neutral party, the neutral third party in this case.
34:54Others are already victims of Iran's attacks. Saudi Arabia is a victim, UAE is a victim,
34:59Qatar is a victim and they all host American bases anyways in this region. So which will be the third
35:05party? United Nations clearly, you know, way beyond its sell-by date. Nothing credible has come out of
35:12the United Nations very sadly in this entire episode. And that just goes on to show, so Russia and China
35:18are seen as pro-Iran. Others are seen as pro-America. India, of course, but does, you know, whatever
35:26India says, will it be taken so seriously? How will you have to be in a position to guarantee,
35:32you know, that peace will hold? Right now, nobody can guarantee that peace will hold because
35:38both sides cannot be taken at their face value. Then maybe, Sandeep, what people need to be
35:43speaking to is Netanyahu. Because he is the only person who seems to have some grip on
35:49Donald Trump in some form. Or is that also an overstatement? He wants to destroy Iran.
35:55He wants to destroy Iran. He's very clear about it. So if you look at it from Prime Minister Netanyahu's
36:00perspective, this war began on the 7th of October 2023. And he's fighting that war for nearly three
36:05years now. He's not going to rest till the Iranian regime has been removed, till the people rise up.
36:12This is actually, essentially, it began as Israel's war. The United States got dragged into it. And
36:17there's plenty of evidence to suggest that that was the case. That it was Israel, of course, you have
36:23to understand that Israel lost a lot of lives. And that 7th of October 2023, what happened to Israeli
36:29civilians is, you know, it's a horrific massacre of 1,200 Israeli civilians. You can see it from the
36:36Israeli perspective. They want to end this. They cannot live in the kind of place that they have
36:41been for decades, that their civilians keep getting massacred every few decades. And they see Iran as
36:47the source of all their worries and all their miseries. Whenever I've been there in Israel, I always heard
36:52this from Israelis across the board, whether it's the military, it's the strategic community. They've
36:57always said this one thing that Iran is the source of all our worries. We have no problems with the
37:02rest of the Arab world. In fact, they were so close to shaking hands with Saudi Arabia in October 2023,
37:08when this attack was unleashed on Israeli civilians. And so from Israel's perspective, it doesn't look
37:15like they are going to stop this war anytime until Iran is decisively defeated. So we will probably,
37:21we are back to square one to look for, as Gaurav said, who is that third party going to be?
37:26Is it
37:26going to be India? Is it going to be some country there? Is there some country that still has a
37:31lot
37:31of credibility, that has a lot of clout with both Iran, the United States and Israel? All right. So for
37:39viewers just joining us right now, let me quickly, you know, recap what's happened in the past 30 minutes.
37:45The past 30 minutes have proven to be perhaps the most important development that we've seen in 20
37:51four days of the West Asia war. For the first time, we have Donald Trump come out and say that
37:58they have
37:59had constructive chat with Iran over the past two days, and that because of those conversations, they are
38:05ready to put in a five day pause. For the next five days, U.S. says they will not be
38:12striking down at
38:13facilities in Iran, perhaps with the hope that they will come to a table, to a conversation in the first
38:21place. But then these are statements, remember, for Donald Trump alone. Iran, in its response,
38:27has now come out to say, not accepting that they have, they are in conversation with the U.S. In
38:32fact,
38:32they've rubbished the whole statement. They are saying that we are not in touch with the U.S. We are
38:37not
38:37talking to U.S. They, in fact, believe, and Iranian media goes on to report about it, that there is
38:45a
38:45threat that they had given that they would go and attack more facilities, which is why U.S. has
38:51backtracked. So what U.S. is causing is calling a sort of de-escalation or a pause for five days,
38:59Iran says,
39:00is their victory. That's the story at the moment. But more developments coming in. First reaction,
39:09from Prime Minister Modi and the government there amid West Asia Truce MEA, that's the Ministry of
39:15External Affairs, saying that they are closely following all developments at this point. So the
39:22government clearly watching all these developments. Remember, in fact, remember, just yesterday, there
39:28was a three and a half hour meeting that was held by the government of India to understand various aspects
39:33and how this war and the impact of it in India. Let's try and quickly listen into what that reaction
39:40is. This is Randhir Jaiswal from the Ministry of External Affairs.
39:45Mr. Akhleji, to answer your question on the latest social media post, yes, we are closely following
40:20these developments as we do.
40:22Mr. Akhleji, to answer your question, we will answer our questions.
40:26Mr. Akhleji, to make sure we have to answer this question, we have to ask ourselves, we have to
40:42continue the question of the questions of this issue, and we have to answer the question,
40:58। । ।
41:24। ।
41:52।
41:53।
41:53।
41:53।
41:53।
41:53pipeline at the moment of how this war is going to disrupt supplies and different sectors
41:59and different ways in which India will be impacted. A six-month, you know, pipeline which has been set
42:05up. Does that tell you that the government perhaps anticipates this war to go on for much longer?
42:11Absolutely. You know, and even if the war ends tomorrow and the Straits of Hormuz reopen,
42:17it's going to be a huge task to get all those oil and gas supplies back online. So there's no
42:24quick
42:24resolution. It's not an on-off switch that, you know, the Straits open and immediately everything
42:29is closed because these are ships, they move slowly. It takes time for things to move. So that's the kind
42:34of worry that the government has, which is why it's planning ahead. And this is a crisis that literally
42:39no one expected. The swiftness of this, possibly even the United States didn't anticipate this kind
42:46of thing because as Gaur was saying that, look, they are rushing troops and forces in theatre almost
42:53a month after beginning these attacks. Now, this is clearly an indication that even the United States
42:59did not anticipate the war going on for so long, for almost a month. And which is why they did
43:04not have
43:04plan B and plan C and plan D. So literally everyone has been taken by surprise. But for India, we
43:10are so
43:11close to this conflict theatre. There have been ships that have been sunk in our, close to our waters.
43:17We are directly affected because not just the oil and the gas, but our investments in the Gulf, our
43:23people, our diaspora that lives there in the line of fire. There are plenty of reasons why India should
43:28be worried and should be planning ahead. But this is a very unique challenge. And I think Sonal that this
43:35is
43:35going to be a definitive moment in India's history in the 21st century. We've seen the Gulf War of the
43:42last decade, the Iran-Iraq war, the tanker wars of 88 to 88. But that was when India was a
43:49much smaller
43:50economy. It was, you know, it was a third world economy. But today when we are the largest economy in
43:55the world, we need assured energy supplies. And that is what we are going to be working on most
44:01likely in the months ahead, parallel to the planning that the government has put in place. The one
44:07thing, of course, is that we have rolled out a massive shipbuilding policy to ensure that we
44:12have Indian-built ships carrying Indian cargoes. That was not the case when this conflict began in
44:182023. And now with energy, the unpredictability of energy supply, that is also going to force us to look for
44:25alternatives, possibly look for nuclear energy, get indigenous sources, you know, going. So this is going to
44:32literally rework the matrix.
44:34Prime Minister also constantly spoke about today. But Gaurav, let's go back to this. You know, this is troubling.
44:40While, you know, the headlines tomorrow morning, you know, the Brent crude oil, actually, you know, the price
44:48is falling there, or even the Nifty giving you a positive response, what none of us actually here
44:54are positive or optimistic about the next five days at the moment. And the reason is on the screen right
45:00now, because there is such a division and diverse reaction that have come in from both sides. At this
45:06point, I go back to my question, what do you think prompted Donald Trump? Can we start from there?
45:11What do you think prompted Donald Trump to actually even put in this five-day pause? And do you think
45:17he will even stick to these five days after these statements by Iran?
45:21So tomorrow morning, he may give a completely different statement, you know, which has absolutely
45:26no correlation with any of the statements made in the past. But that's the nature of Donald Trump.
45:31But just look at how two things are happening. One, Israel has a very clear focus. Israel's focus is
45:40decimate the regime in Iran. And Israel is moving forward with that precise aim. Because Israel
45:49realizes, so whether it's the Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, the Syrian regime, the Iraqi militia,
45:54all of them were funded by Iran. So it's decimated, virtually decimated a lot of opposition. And now
46:01it's going after the head, as it says, of that octopus. Now, will it succeed or not? We do not
46:07know.
46:07It does need the United States of America. So US and Israel have gone to a large extent
46:12to decimate, one, symbols of state, symbols of regime. Their appreciation still remains
46:18that within the next fortnight, the regime, according to them, is on its last legs.
46:24More it weakens, faster it will collapse. There's Hormuz. Once other navies move into this area,
46:30they are hopeful they'll be able to, whether they use more 5,000 pounders, whether they send in
46:35the 82nd airborne, whether they mount financial pressure. Yes, there will be losses. But then,
46:40what is their take on this? Their take is, yes, the whole world will take some pain. But it's long
46:45term relief for the entire world from a terror regime, as they put it. Can Iran really last out
46:52long? We do not know how long can this survive. As of now, they have managed to survive 25, 24
46:58days,
46:5825 days and counting. One more week or two more weeks, we do not know. But blow hot,
47:04blow cold is the American policy right now.
47:06Yeah, but perhaps the next five days are going to be more critical than the rest,
47:10really, at this point. Sadeep, help me understand this. For me, the most critical point in this
47:15entire war came when the energy infrastructure started getting attacked. That was also the first
47:21time we saw Netanyahu and Trump not speak the same language, right? And that is one thing that even
47:28Trump, it's like his Achilles heel in a way, right? He does not want global prices to go up. There
47:34is
47:34internal pressure, no matter what our guest from Tel Aviv had to say about it. There is mounting global
47:39pressure as well on Donald Trump to control prices because he understands money. He understands
47:45that. Do you think that in energy infrastructure getting involved has been the key and will perhaps
47:52be the reason why Donald Trump will be forced to de-escalate, if not now, then later?
47:58Well, absolutely. And that's a very good observation, Sonal. You know, the fact is that this whole thing,
48:02there's a Hindi expression for it. We've coined it here in the newsroom. It's tel ka khel,
48:06right? The whole thing, the whole game is about oil. And if you look at it, the United States has
48:11been
48:11very careful in going about this over the last couple of months. The three cheapest sources of
48:17oil to its arch enemy, China, Venezuela, the Russian Federation, and Iran. Trump has been moving after
48:25all of these three sources of cheap oil, one after the other. Venezuela is in the American pocket.
48:32Iran is under tremendous pressure. Russia is also under a lot of pressure. But now here with Iran,
48:37they'll be very careful. If you look at Khark Island, for instance, Khark is 90% of Iran's oil
48:44and gas passes through that one island. The US has been targeting military infrastructure on the
48:49island. It has not touched the storage tanks on the southern part of Khark Island because they know
48:53how valuable that energy, you know, that island is for the global oil supply. And that is what they
49:01really want to control. If you see the statements that have been coming out of the United States,
49:05it's all about controlling oil. If Iran, if the US controls Iran's oil, it will have control over
49:1230% of the world's oil. So that is clearly what the US is playing at. And as you pointed
49:17out,
49:18the US is very careful to ensure that the oil prices don't climb beyond a particular, you know,
49:24more than 100, 120. So today's statement could well be that it was a safety wall to give the markets
49:31that respite, that relief, so that the oil prices settle down a bit before the US can move in bigger
49:36assets to try and secure the states of Hormuz. Got it. All right, gentlemen, we have to leave it
49:41there for the moment. Gaurav and Samteeb, thank you so much for bringing all of this into perspective
49:46for us. The background behind me has changed because officially, or at least in Donald Trump's
49:51version, there is a pause on the board, 24 days, a five-day pause. Will it carry on? Will Iran
49:58come
49:58on the table? What happens next? We have to watch it hour by hour, minute by minute. And in Donald
50:05Trump's case, it means one tweet from the other.
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