00:00But, Jono, Iran seems to think it has the upper hand here, doesn't it?
00:04Because they still have control of the Strait of Hormuz and the economy.
00:10Well, look, I think it definitely wants to project that image, Leanne, and I think much on to what Wissam
00:15said.
00:15This is a bit of a strategic bluff than an upper hand, let's be honest about it.
00:20They're signaling the strength publicly. They're making all the right mood music, sounds at least.
00:25They're denying the talks. They're issuing these conditions that we've seen, and we've heard a lot about those.
00:30They're trying ceasefires, tying them even into a wider public demand, much like Lebanon that we've heard about as well.
00:37But that is a classic negotiation posture. That's what we're seeing right now.
00:40So internally and militarily speaking, it's under sustained pressure.
00:44We've seen, like Wissam said, leadership losses, targeted strikes.
00:48There's the ongoing hits on infrastructure there as well.
00:50And there's that looming threat from Donald Trump of this five-day stall on the hit to major infrastructure, including
00:56the power plant.
00:57So they are absorbing significant damage.
01:00It does, however, have leverage.
01:02And I guess it's in a form of asymmetry more than anything else.
01:06But it can kind of stretch this conflict across the region, like Lebanon, like the Gulf, the shipping lanes.
01:12It is keeping the entire region very unstable at the moment.
01:14And it's rising the cost across the U.S., across Israel, across Europe, across Asia.
01:20It's not dominance, but it is enough to kind of complicate any clean victory narrative for Iran's point of view
01:26as well.
01:27And I think that's what's difficult.
01:28On Trump's claim that Iran is afraid to admit that it's talking, I think there is a grain of truth
01:33in there as well.
01:33But he might be overstating it.
01:35The regime has been trying to, for the longest time, balance the two audiences externally.
01:40So negotiation is rational.
01:42But internally, they don't want to appear weak because that could trigger backlash as well.
01:46So denial doesn't mean the talks are not happening.
01:48At least that's what I think.
01:50It means they can't be seen to be happening.
01:52I think that's the difference.
01:53And that's the takeaway here is the credibility is different depending on how Iran spin this narrative.
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