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As the West Asia conflict escalates, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar made India's position clear during an all-party meeting chaired by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, stating that India cannot act as a broker nation like Pakistan.
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00:00Hello everyone, you're watching NewsTrack with me, Maria Shaquille. As the war in West Asia escalates,
00:05India feels the heat. But amidst the crisis, the Modi government chaired an all-party meet today.
00:12In the meeting that lasted for one hour and 45 minutes, the government assured all parties
00:17that India's energy security remains stable and additional shipments are on the way,
00:24which will arrive within a week. But it's not the government statement on the war that has
00:29grabbed eyeballs, but its statement on the rogue nation and the neighbour, Pakistan, that's eyeing
00:35the big mediator role. Sources have told India Today that External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jai Shankar
00:42during the meet made it clear that India cannot act as a broker nation, quote-unquote, like Pakistan.
00:49This after the opposition raised concerns over Pakistan's role, or should I say alleged role,
00:54in mediating talks between the United States, Israel and Iran.
00:59To know what all happened today in this very crucial meeting, which was chaired by Defence
01:02Minister Rajnath Singh, take a look at this report.
01:12War in West Asia and India is feeling the heat.
01:16Amid concerns over LPG and fuel supplies,
01:19the Modi government convened an all-party meeting to assess the situation.
01:25Defence Minister Rajnath Singh chaired the meeting and sought to allay fears,
01:29stating that India has adequate energy security.
01:33Sources say External Affairs Minister S. Jai Shankar briefed leaders on the PM's recent conversation
01:39with Donald Trump, underlining that India has pushed for an immediate end to the conflict,
01:44as it is impacting the entire region.
01:48On the question of Pakistan's possible mediation between Iran and the United States,
01:52Jai Shankar made India's position clear, that India cannot be a Dalal nation.
01:58The government also indicated that such back-channel dynamics are not new,
02:03suggesting that America has, for decades, engaged Pakistan in maintaining communication channels with Iran.
02:10On the energy front, the government reassured all parties that supply lines remain intact.
02:16At least four LPG-laden ships are expected to reach India via the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days.
02:34The government also said that the government has been a long-term,
02:53During the meeting, opposition leaders questioned the reasons behind the US and Israel's strikes
02:58on Iran. The foreign secretary responded that the attacks were linked to Iran's nuclear
03:03activities. However, the opposition is now demanding a detailed discussion in parliament
03:09with some leaders expressing dissatisfaction over the government's responses.
03:22It was just that the entire country was standing in the line of gas cylinder and now it was
03:28stuck on the petrol pumps. So, it was a panic created by the Prime Minister for two days
03:34and it was also a disaster and a disaster. So, the government had a chance to produce 60%
03:47LPG domestically.
03:48produced. Notably, the TMC skipped the meeting. As more details emerge, one thing is clear.
03:57India is speaking in a firm, decisive voice, setting its terms as the West Asia conflict
04:03intensifies. Bureau Report, India Today. Now, let's shift focus to what exactly is
04:12happening in this ongoing war. The big question on everyone's mind is, what will it take to
04:18stop this war? And hours after Tehran received a 15-point proposal from the U.S. to reach a
04:24ceasefire in the war via Pakistan, Tehran has drawn the red line by issuing its own sets of
04:29demands. What are both these stakeholders saying? And will this war see an end? Or is this just
04:37posturing before another escalation? Before I bring in my guest, take a look at this report.
04:54On day 26 of the war, talks have taken centre stage. According to the Western media, the
05:00Trump administration has formally sent Iran a 15-point ceasefire plan via Pakistan. Remember,
05:07Pakistan is eyeing the key mediator role amid the war on Iran. The U.S. proposal seeks major
05:13concessions from Iran. America's core demands include complete dismantling of Iran's nuclear
05:19weapons infra, complete and permanent hold to all uranium enrichment inside Tehran, commitment
05:25to never pursue nuclear ambitions, decommissioning of nuclear hubs in Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow,
05:32abandoning all proxies of Iran and stopping their financing, opening the Strait of Hormuz as free
05:38maritime zone. The list of demands also includes limiting Iran's missile arsenal.
05:47The framework largely mirrors a 2025 proposal that Iran had rejected earlier, raising doubts
05:54over any real breakthrough. Meanwhile, in a cryptic post, Donald Trump has praised Iran,
05:59calling the payoff a very big present worth a tremendous amount of money.
06:04What it showed me is that we're dealing with the right people. Because, you know, you don't know,
06:08because the leadership was killed, all gone. Khomeini, all gone. As the expression goes,
06:15the past Supreme Leader. And then the new Supreme Leader was racked up, at a minimum,
06:22racked up pretty good. They gave us a present. And the present arrived today.
06:27It was a very big present worth a tremendous amount of money. The air campaign that we've conducted,
06:34that Israel's conducted alongside us, was one for the history books, truly. And it's because we have
06:38a president of the United States that when he sends his war fighters out to fight, he unties their hands
06:43to actually go out and close with and destroy the enemy as viciously as possible from moment one.
06:49In response, Iran has reportedly laid down its own sweeping conditions. Tehran has demanded immediate
06:57ceasefire and right to nuclear power and missile program. It is also demanding an immediate ceasefire
07:03before any talks, full recognition of Iran's autonomy and an end to regime change efforts.
07:09It has also sought compensation for war damages and binding security guarantees.
07:16Despite talk of a pause, signs of escalation persist in West Asia. Donald Trump appears to be pursuing
07:23a dual strategy. Dialogue on one side, escalation on the other. The US is boosting its military presence
07:31with additional naval and troop deployments, signalling readiness for a prolonged conflict.
07:37Reports suggest up to 3,000 troops may be deployed. In response, Iran has issued a direct warning,
07:45saying it is closely monitoring the US build-up. Tehran has also cautioned that Washington could become
07:51a victim of Benjamin Netanyahu's decisions, reiterating its claim that the US is acting at Israel's behest.
07:59So what's actually happening on the dialogue front?
08:03What does the US want and what are Tehran's red lines? So far, there is no clarity.
08:11Bureau Report, India Today.
08:16I'm going to go to Riyadh from where Dr. John Esfakyanakis, who is the Chief Economist at the Gulf Research
08:24Center,
08:25is joining me live. He's also a fellow at the Chatham House in London. Thank you so much for your
08:31time.
08:31From your vantage point, tracking Gulf macro-fiscal dynamics and oil policy, how do you interpret
08:39Washington's dual-track strategy of military deployment combined with diplomatic signalling?
08:47Does this approach primarily aim to underwrite a negotiated outcome that preserves energy?
08:58Well, it tries to preserve energy, but also it tries to preserve US credibility standing in the world
09:08economy and also in the Gulf countries and the wider Asia economic landscape. Remember that negotiations,
09:17as you've said quite rightly, are in parallel to the deployment of troops in parallel to also the
09:27possibility of using special forces to open up the Straits of Hormuz. This has happened in the past. Remember,
09:36this war has started whilst negotiations were taking place in Oman and all of a sudden, that night of the
09:4628th of February, the attacks began.
09:49Dr. Esfakyanakis, are markets buying the calm or quietly pricing in escalation across oil
09:58equities and also capital flows in the Gulf?
10:04Dr. Esfakyanakis, are markets are buying the dip. They're buying that there is going to be some
10:10kind of a settlement coming up. And as you've seen, oil prices have dipped quite a bit, both West Texas
10:17Intermediate and Brent in terms of crude oil. And also you have seen in US equities and equities around
10:24the world. There has been a relief rally. But having said that, volatility is there. Markets could change
10:32very quickly. If they hear that the negotiations are not going anywhere, then that could very well
10:39change within a minute or two. You're joining me from Riyadh in Saudi Arabia. How should this be seen from
10:48the context of economies of Saudi, UAE and Dubai?
10:55I think that what we have seen with the Gulf economy is that there is resilience.
11:02No doubt, the war has impacted them because they're sitting in the middle, being attacked for no real
11:09reason. Other than what we hear from the Iranian side, that because they have bases, the US, America
11:16has bases in many of these countries, we will hit the Gulf countries. The Gulf countries have never been
11:23an aggressor. So there is no justification for this. But having said this, the Gulf economies are sitting
11:31in a pool of wealth. They're sitting on more than $5 trillion worth of sovereign investments around the
11:40world. And they have been far more resilient today than 20, 30 years ago. So I'm very optimistic.
11:49However, the short term effect is that these economies are impacted. Remember, they're exporting oil and
11:56natural gas. A lot of it goes to India. That impacts their revenue base. But they're standing from a very
12:04positive platform, a pool of money that they can deploy. The Gulf countries and the Gulf economies
12:11will not remain the same as we know and knew them prior to the war. They're going to be far
12:18more
12:18self-reliant. They will build the local economies and localization. And they're going to take this crisis,
12:25this war, as a lesson for them to be far more diversified within the geographical mix,
12:33and also to look at India as a point of relationship and link of strategic nature coming into the future.
12:42India in just a bit. But since you're talking about resilience on the state of Hormuz,
12:49let's talk about that. In a prolonged standoff, who has the stronger economic hand? Iran's disruption
12:56threat or the Gulf's resilience and also diversification?
13:03Now, I think that the Gulf is going to withstand all this quite well. And if you look at Iran,
13:10Iran, from a strategic standpoint, has been majorly impacted. We have seen that most of their
13:18infrastructure has been affected. Water, oil, electricity. And if the war continues, Iran will
13:27look very different and far, far more impacted than any other Gulf nation. Having said that, yes,
13:35they can unleash missiles and rockets to the Gulf countries, but the Gulf countries have more debt
13:43and more wealth than Iran. Remember also that Iran is functioning from many years of sanctions. And they
13:51too need the oil revenue. They too need to be part of a global economy. Yes, they have links with
13:58China
13:58and India. Yes, they can export today oil from the Straits of Hormuz to India, to China. But notwithstanding
14:06that, the localization efforts of the Iranians have not been that great. The local economy,
14:13the Iranian economy, has been suffering from huge inflation, huge currency weakness. And we all know
14:20that when you have inflation and currency weakness, that doesn't last for too long in terms of the
14:27negative effects. And your people are majorly impacted. So I don't think over the long term Iran can
14:33withstand this. Okay, are Gulf and international markets potentially underpricing the tail risks
14:40to tourism, foreign investment and also business confidence? And those who may be planning in the GCC,
14:47the overall macro fiscal? No doubt. Nobody can deny that Iran has shown its strength,
14:57its teeth. And for that reason, there has to be a negotiated settlement. And for that reason,
15:02the US today has shared a 15 point agreement. And there has to be some kind of reconciliation for
15:09the opening of the Straits of Hormuz. There is no doubt in mind that the battle might have been won
15:17by the US. But the war on the strategic side has been lost. And we need to see the global
15:26repercussions
15:27that this is creating for everyone. And certainly, the Straits of Hormuz show to everybody how important
15:35it is for global trade, and also how important energy is. Because we've taken out from the global energy
15:42market, 20% of oil and natural gas. And for India and for China, as well as South Korea and
15:50Japan,
15:51this is a lifeline. This oil that has been lost cannot be easily replaced. There is no oil. And
15:59despite the drastic measures that the world has taken to release strategic reserves from the US, from the IEA,
16:06from other countries, it is still not enough. If this war continues, oil is going to rise. And oil will
16:15remain
16:15high for a very long time, because we have to replenish that oil. So oil at 60, I think is
16:24an impossibility
16:25if this war continues. Oil at $60 a barrel. We might not see it for a very long time.
16:31Since you speak about India, and India has managed to ensure that some of its ships, naval ships are able
16:37to, you know, pass through the Strait of Hormuz. And that certainly is a big diplomatic victory for
16:43India. Can India then place the peacemaker, particularly because of its human capital in Gulf?
16:53You're very well said in the point that the human capital, India has been providing strategic
17:00human capital throughout the Gulf. And that will continue. And it's very important. I might say that the
17:06interlocutors could be India, possibly, but there are others like Oman, there are others who have been
17:14doing that for quite some time. But India is a very important bridge. And it could be seen as an
17:21element of
17:22neutrality that brings the two parties. So far, I think that India has played it very well. And it played
17:29its cards,
17:30it's cards very well in order to promote Indian interests, but also as a strategic bridge of trade
17:38and advice for the entire Gulf population.
17:42Is there a real risk that this military buildup is in fact laying the groundwork for a limited or full
17:49scale ground operation? Or is this primarily signaling to force Iran into concessions at the negotiating
17:57table? Of course, I'm talking about the proposal which has been sent by Donald Trump.
18:03Well, I think that one cannot deny that this is a tactic that we have seen in the past. And
18:10there is an element of
18:11taco for President Trump to chicken out. And that is a possibility. But at the same time, we have seen
18:19that the
18:21American side, President Trump does work in parallel environments and scenarios. So it could be that today
18:28he's presenting the 15 point plan for negotiations. And it could be that in parallel, they're going to
18:38deploy special forces troops for a limited boots on the ground campaign. And it could be done in the
18:45following way. It could be that come Friday, Saturday, there is no response from the Iranian side.
18:52President Trump in America says, well, I've offered them something and nothing has eventuated.
18:58So I'm going to deploy forces because I have to open the Straits of Hormuz and I'm going to take
19:03action.
19:04And action begins over the weekend. And then we come back on Monday because the weekend is the preferred option
19:11for
19:11heightened activity, because markets are shot. So we will see the effect on Monday, oil spikes, it goes from 89
19:21WTI or 98 Brent to 130 and 40.
19:26And then we continue far more in that limelight rather than negotiating. And then we go back. Remember also that
19:36we are in a
19:37prison's dilemma in many ways. You need to escalate in order to negotiate. And it could be that this is
19:44one
19:45tactic where President Trump is using to negotiate. Yet we hear that the Iranians are not so welcoming on
19:53the negotiating table. I think the next two days are very crucial. But as you said, it could be a
19:59tactic
20:00to enforce greater escalatory power on the ground in Iran.
20:05Okay, that brings me to my last question on the show tonight. Is energy security the real battlefield here?
20:10Because is the price of the oil which is deciding the trajectory and the direction of this war?
20:18Definitely. Energy security is at the crux of the matter. Because once the Straits were shut,
20:25immediately markets reacted. Before, during the initial campaign, the impact on the global economy
20:33was far less observable. Markets, yes, got impacted, oil went up, but oil didn't spike to 120.
20:42And that was an issue. And today, we're seeing that energy and trade flows play a crucial part for all
20:50of
20:51this. India would not be asking questions, where is my oil? Where am I buying oil? And luckily,
20:57India has an excellent relationship with Russia. And they're able to get Russian oil today, which was
21:04unsanctioned. So another great beneficiary is Russia today. Russia today is benefiting it to the
21:12tune of $250 million. They're selling a lot of their oil to India and other Asian countries, but
21:19predominantly India. So at the crux, at the center of all this is yet again, energy. We are not so
21:27de-linked from energy. We're still dependent on energy. And the Gulf is important for that,
21:34as well as Russia and other hydrocarbon producing countries.
21:38All right, Dr. John Esfair Kyanakis joining us there from Riyadh. Thank you so much for sharing your
21:45views. We are putting out that interview on our website and also on the YouTube channel. Of course,
21:52tomorrow will be another day in this war, which has now entered day 24. Thanks so much for watching.
21:58We'll track the story very, very close.
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