00:00Two Indian vessels, Shivalik and Nanda Devi, crossed one of the world's most dangerous waterways,
00:05Strait of Hormuz. And suddenly, it is being called a big diplomatic victory.
00:09But is it really? Or is this another case where optics ran ahead of reality?
00:14Tonight, we'll decode the truth behind the two Indian LPG tankers that crossed the Strait of Hormuz
00:19and what it really says about India's recent diplomatic efforts amid Iran vs. US-Israel war.
00:25Welcome viewers, I'm Abhay Mandre and you're watching OneIndia News special program,
00:30India Global.
00:38Let's start with the story that sparked the headlines.
00:41Over the weekend, two Indian-flagged LPG carriers, Shivalik and Nanda Devi, arrived in India,
00:47carrying nearly 92,700 metric tons of LPG. One reached Mundra port, the other is headed to Kandala.
00:54At a time when the Strait is effectively disrupted due to the war,
00:58this looked like a breakthrough. And quickly, a narrative emerged.
01:03India has secured safe passage. Indian diplomacy has delivered.
01:06The Modi government has ensured energy security.
01:09But here's the reality.
01:11India's External Affairs Minister, S. Jaishankar, stepped in to clarify.
01:15His messages were clear and very important.
01:18There is no blanket agreement with Iran. There is no special corridor for India right now.
01:24Each ship is being cleared case by case. In his own words, every ship is moving at an individual happening.
01:32This was not a systematic success. It was a temporary exception. And that changes everything.
01:37Now comes to the big question. India has good relationships with all the players, including Iran, the United States, Israel.
01:46Basically, all the players who are fighting against each other in this war.
01:50So why is India not guessing a guaranteed safe passage?
01:54The question lies in geopolitics.
01:58The answer is also lies there.
02:01The Strait of Hormuz is controlled by Iran.
02:03And in the middle of war, Iran decides who gets priority.
02:07Right now, India's position is complicated due to recent positioning.
02:12For decades, India followed a policy of strategic neutrality in West Asia.
02:16But recent developments, including PM Modi's Israel visit, have raised questions.
02:21Prime Minister Narendra Modi's highly visible outreach to Israel.
02:26Public optics, including close engagement with Israeli leadership in his recent visit.
02:31And India not strongly condemning attacks on Iran, especially the killing of Iran's supreme leader, Khamenei.
02:38Supporting certain global positions, especially about Israel, seen as unfavorable by Tehran.
02:45Reduce engagement on projects like Chabahar and Iranian oil imports has also concerned Iranians.
02:50So, individually, this may be strategic choices.
02:54But collectively, they create a perception and pattern.
02:58And in geopolitics, perception matters as much as policy.
03:03Experts say, Iran today sees India as not hostile, but not fully neutral either.
03:09And that is exactly why China and some others like Bangladesh reportedly got broader assurances for their ships.
03:16India is still negotiating ship by ship.
03:19In a crisis, countries prioritize trusted partners.
03:22India is still being treated as a case-by-case partner.
03:25So, what this means for India's energy security?
03:28This is not just about ships.
03:30This is about India's energy lifeline.
03:33Because right now, around 50% of India's oil and gas flows through the state of Hormuz.
03:38A major chunk of LPG comes from this region.
03:41And right now, that supply chain is under stress.
03:45In fact, about 55% of India's LPG supply is impacted.
03:49Dozens of Indian vessels are still waiting near the stream.
03:52Two ships crossing does not solve the problem.
03:55It only buys us time.
03:57Now, let's come to what matters at home.
04:00There is visible concern among Indians.
04:02LPG bookings have surged by 60%.
04:04Long queues or panic buying in some areas is visible.
04:08But the government says there is no need to panic.
04:12Here's what is happening on the ground.
04:14Household LPG is being fully prioritized.
04:17Supply is intact and ongoing.
04:19Over 50 lakh cylinders are delivered daily.
04:23So, waiting periods are extended in 25 days for cities and 45 days in rural areas.
04:29So, you'll ask why exactly is there a delay?
04:32To prevent hoarding and panic buying,
04:35the government is also saying that they have increased domestic LPG production,
04:40diverting supply from the industrial use to domestic.
04:43They are cracking down on hoarders.
04:45Their message is simple.
04:47Do not rush.
04:49Do not stockpile.
04:50And book only when needed.
04:52In the past few days, we have not cut down anywhere in terms of the domestic supplies.
05:00We have cut down on commercial, but domestic supplies are continued.
05:04And we will continue making that.
05:08So, where does this leave India?
05:10Let's be very clear.
05:11The two ships are not enough to say that this is a diplomatic breakthrough.
05:15There are limited, negotiated exceptions.
05:19There is no guaranteed access yet.
05:22India is still negotiating, balancing relationships with Iran and Israel,
05:27and managing a fragile supply chain.
05:29In geopolitics, success is not about one headline moment.
05:33It is about consistent leverage.
05:36Right now, India is not blocked, but India is not prioritized either.
05:41And that is the space where uncertainty lives.
05:44Two ships have a right, but the real question is, will the next 20?
05:48And until that answer is unclear, the crisis is far from over.
05:55You are keep watching India Global and One India News for more international news.
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