- 1 hour ago
Amid diplomatic efforts to end the West Asia war, the United States is deploying approximately 7,000 to 8,000 additional personnel to the region, including elements of the 82nd Airborne Division and two Marine Expeditionary Units.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:02Good evening, you're watching India First. I'm Gaurav Savant. It's day 26 of the war in West Asia
00:07and the United States is sending boots on ground elements of the 82nd Airborne Division
00:15and elements of two Marine Expeditionary Units. They are now on their way in the area of operation
00:21of the US Central Command. Now, this indicates that the Americans will have at least 7,000 to
00:288,000 additional boots on ground. This, apart from the fact that there are 50,000 US service personnel
00:35already deployed in this area, does this mark a very serious escalation? Once that Friday deadline,
00:44that's over. Because dialogue happening between America and Iran, it's kabhi ha, kabhi na. You
00:50hear something on day one, you hear something completely different from the other side. However,
00:57information is at least 7,000 to 8,000 additional US Special Forces. So, you have
01:03paratroopers of the US Army, 82nd Airborne Division, 1,000 soldiers. They are likely to be deployed
01:09and at least 5,000 to 6,000 US Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit and the 11th Marine
01:16Expeditionary Unit ex-San Diego and ex-Okinawa. Now, one unit is likely to reach there by Friday. I'll get
01:23you much more on that story. But within India, there is a lot that's happening. The fallout of this
01:29big scoop that comes from the all-party meeting on the West Asia war. Defense Minister Rajnath Singh,
01:35he delivered the opening remarks, followed by a detailed briefing given by Foreign Secretary Vikram
01:42Misri. There's one aspect that's significantly important. Opposition raised multiple issues and
01:48one of those issues was Pakistan being on center stage according to some opposition leaders or
01:54words to that effect on Pakistan's reported offer to mediate between the United States and Iran and
02:00Pakistani territory being used for talks. India's External Affairs Minister, Dr. S. Jai Shankar,
02:08he is believed to have made a rather sharp comment. He said, India cannot be a Dalal nation. India is
02:18not a nation of fixers.
02:20Not only this, the government also added that Pakistan's mediation push is not surprising. It's been on for quite some
02:27time.
02:27In fact, since 1981, remember, 79 was when this revolution took place in Iran. And since 1981, the United States
02:36has been using Pakistan to remain engaged with the regime in Iran.
02:43Because remember, post-1979, you don't have a U.S. embassy in Tehran. So, it's Pakistan that is being used
02:52by the United States to keep channels of communication
02:55open with Iran. I quickly want to cut across to India today's ace reporters joining me on this big story
03:03from Ground Zero.
03:05Piyush Mishra joins me on the story. Mossmi Singh joins us with more on the story. Piyush, give us details,
03:11specifically, the context in which the External Affairs
03:15Minister is believed to have said India is not a country of Dalals. Give us details.
03:20Well, Gaurav, today, a meeting went on for more than 1.5 hours. And after the meeting, we also, you
03:27know, spoke to various sources.
03:30And the government has strongly defended its handling of West Asia crisis. And the government has pushed back against the
03:37criticism,
03:38against the points that were being raised by a few opposition MPs. Sources have told us that the MPs like
03:44Sanjay Singh,
03:46Dharmendra Riyadha from Samadhi Party, John Bhattas from the left, they asked questions about the role of Pakistan,
03:53the mediation role of Pakistan, which it is playing as far as this entire crisis is concerned.
03:58Now, what we are learning from our sources is that the question was responded sharply by Union External Affairs Minister,
04:05where he said, according to sources, that it argued,
04:10if the U.S. finds Pakistan useful as a channel of communication, India cannot control that equation.
04:17At the same time, it underscored that India will not act as middlemen or Dalal nation in global diplomacy.
04:26So, it's a huge comment coming in from External Affairs Minister S. Shankar.
04:30So, not only this, various other aspects were addressed as far as energy requirements are concerned.
04:36The government has made it very, very clear that we have enough sources.
04:40We are in touch with various other countries and there is no need to panic at all.
04:46So, stay with me. Let's take this point by point.
04:48I also want to bring Sandeep Unnithan, who joins us on this broadcast into this conversation.
04:52But let me come to Mossmi Singh first.
04:54Mossmi, you've constantly been in touch with Congress leaders, other opposition leaders.
04:59were they convinced with the response of the government since the government had the Defence Minister,
05:04the External Affairs Minister, the Home Minister and various other ministers
05:07who are part of this meeting to brief the opposition?
05:16Mossmi, I think you're on mute. Unmute yourself, Mossmi.
05:20You know, the big takeaway, Gaurav, if you can hear me, was that the government sat with leaders of the
05:25opposition
05:26and its allies and briefed them at ease about the entire issue.
05:32It also answered queries.
05:34And the big takeaway really was that largely the opposition leaders seemed to be satisfied with what the government said.
05:41And that's what the government source was telling us.
05:43However, the Congress, perhaps, leader told us that Mr. Tarikandar said that they were demanding a detailed discussion on this
05:52matter
05:52and they were not very satisfied with what the government had to say.
05:57They feel something that India was just playing a mute spectator.
06:01So they are furthering this entire conversation by saying that we need a discussion in both houses of the parliament.
06:10But also, interestingly, you know, the government did underline the fact that the point that you were saying about Pakistan,
06:16it also did explain why, when the opposition leaders asked why U.S. and Israel actually entered into a war
06:26with Iran and attacked Iran,
06:27and the government went on to say that Iran was developing a nuclear facility and was ready to test nuclear.
06:36And that's one reason that the attack actually happened.
06:41And so, thereby, you know, the big takeaway really was that there was no need to panic.
06:47The government was prepared for any exigencies and alternative arrangements of supply have also been mentioned.
06:54However, Congress seems to be the only one who is departing from the fact that they are not happy with
07:01the government's response.
07:02Fair enough. Let me quickly bring in Sandeep Unithan into this conversation.
07:06Sandeep, fair point being made by the external affairs minister.
07:09We are not a country of middlemen. We are not Dalals.
07:11We are not facilitators of conversation between Iran and the United States of America.
07:16Absolutely, Gaurav. And, you know, that's what Dr. Jaishankar seems to indicate.
07:19The fact is that while in business negotiations and contracts, there is what is called an honest broker.
07:25In this case, the Hindi translation of that is Dalal, which is what Pakistan is.
07:31That it is someone who takes kickbacks for all of these deals that it tries to cut for the United
07:36States.
07:36As we've seen in the past, 1971, the price of the Dalali that they did in 71 was for the
07:43U.S. to turn a blind eye to the genocide in East Pakistan.
07:47And you see that recurring from 1979 to 1988.
07:52And then once again, once the Taliban come in in 2001 to 2021, when the U.S. is deployed in
07:59Afghanistan.
07:59So, you know, Pakistan is a rentier state that charges rent for its location and these other additional services which
08:07the foreign minister seems to mention.
08:10Okay. Keep tracking that story. I will come back to all of you for more on this.
08:14For the moment, Piyush, Masmi and Sandeep, many thanks.
08:17I now want to shift focus to the deployment or reports of deployment of additional U.S. forces to this
08:25region.
08:25And what does this indicate?
08:26So, the United States is deploying elements of the 82nd Airborne Division to West Asia, according to reports in the
08:32American media.
08:33Then you have two U.S. Marine Expeditionary Units ex-Okinawa and San Diego that have also been dispatched.
08:41So, 2,200 Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, they are likely to be in the U.S. CENTCOM
08:48area of responsibility in the next 48 hours by late Friday.
08:52Is this then the countdown for the U.S. putting boots on ground?
08:59And does this mark serious escalation in this war on day 26?
09:05Joining me on this special broadcast is Professor Robert Pape, Professor of Political Science Department at the University of Chicago.
09:12Professor, welcome back.
09:14As always, great to have you on the show.
09:16Your reading of two MUs, close to 5,000 U.S. Marines and another additional 1,000 paratroopers from the
09:2482nd Airborne being mobilized.
09:26Is the United States going up the escalation ladder?
09:31Yes, it's an escalation trap.
09:34So, I have on my sub-stack the escalation trap analyses of this in detail just in the last few
09:4324 hours.
09:45I have put them up.
09:46And what you are seeing is that we are moving to what I call stage 3 of the escalation trap.
09:52I published these stages before the first bomb fell.
09:56And you can read it.
09:57Then we have gone through stage 1, stage 2, and stage 3 is the beginning of the ground operations.
10:04This is what is involved with moving now the 82nd Airborne and also the Marines.
10:10The 82nd Airborne, the big news last night, is that there are 1,000 paratroopers heading to the region.
10:17Where are they going?
10:18Likely, Al-Yudid Air Base in Qatar.
10:21That would be the most natural place, which means this will then become a target for, even bigger target, for
10:27Iran's missiles and drones.
10:30So, those bases can't be moved.
10:32You can't hide the bases.
10:34Once you put in 1,000 people, you can't hide them.
10:39Not very easily, anyway.
10:41And so, what you're going to start to see is even as they arrive, this will likely start to escalate
10:47the war.
10:48And then, over time, what can they do?
10:50You've already mentioned taking the airport at Karag Island.
10:54That's what 1,000 paratroopers could do, not the whole island.
10:57On Karag Island, there's 30,000 Iranians who live there.
11:01So, keep in mind, now you're surrounding that 1,000 with 30,000 Iranians.
11:06And even if only 1,000 of them want to start taking shots at the 1,000 as they're coming
11:11down, that's already a big risk.
11:14And they haven't even hit the tarmac.
11:16So, the Marines would have to come by water through the Straits of Hormuz.
11:22And that takes over 24 hours once they even start that journey.
11:26It's 500 miles from Hormuz to Karag Island.
11:28So, this is all extremely risky.
11:32These are the riskiest of risky military operations.
11:36And those forces, even if they get on hold and get their beachheads, they start, but they don't finish.
11:44That's a very important point.
11:47Pardon me?
11:47You said they start.
11:48That's a very important point you're making.
11:50But let me take this step by step.
11:52So, the coercive tactics deployed so far, they haven't worked?
11:57Because Iran is talking of targeting the USS Abraham Lincoln, the aircraft carrier.
12:02They continue to target multiple locations across the region and in Israel.
12:07So, is Iran also escalating this battle after 26 days, sir?
12:12Yes.
12:13And this is why I called it deliberately not an escalation ladder.
12:17That it is.
12:18But it's a trap.
12:19And it's a trap because at each stage, we are escalating.
12:24We have tactical success, but strategic failure.
12:27We didn't topple the regime.
12:29We killed leaders.
12:30And who did we put in place?
12:32The IRGC.
12:33This is a more vicious regime than it was before.
12:37We effectively killed the doves and put in power all of the hawks.
12:42And so, now what you're seeing is we're trying to figure out how to stop them from gaining power.
12:48They control 20% of the world's oil.
12:50And now we're trying to figure out how to get that back.
12:53Well, they're not going to just give it back to us, the IRGC.
12:56They want to take that oil and exert more power, maybe even topple governments in Saudi Arabia and the UAE
13:04over the next six months.
13:05So, that's why what you're seeing is pressure for the ground forces.
13:10And those ground forces, the options are all ugly, they're all risky, but you're seeing it happen.
13:17So, does this indicate that despite targeting or hitting more than 15,000 targets across Iran, as you mentioned, tactical
13:28achievements have been met, but none of the strategic goals have been met?
13:31The trap that you mentioned, the escalation trap, does this indicate that it won't just be these 1,000 paratroopers
13:38of the 82nd Airborne or the 5,000 Marines?
13:42More forces will need to be brought in.
13:44And then, instead of being a quick in, quick out, it becomes a long-drawn battle that America gets sucked
13:51into this battle, like Iraq, like Afghanistan, maybe for years, if not decades?
13:55Yeah, a long time.
13:58I'm saying on my substack, the escalation trap, I'm laying out the scenario, expect six months of war of attrition,
14:06where this isn't just they're sitting there on the beach, the Marines or the paratroopers are just sitting at an
14:13airport.
14:14You can expect attrition warfare, both sides will take losses here, that will go on for months.
14:21And that is going to have dramatic shock effect on the world price of oil.
14:26Right now, Donald Trump is talking down the world price of oil.
14:30Once these ground operations start, there's no talking down the world price of oil.
14:35Everybody's going to know it is going up, and that's going to affect India, that's going to affect China, that's
14:41going to affect America, that's going to affect prospects for Trump politically.
14:47This is going to be a phase-level shift, not just a little bit more force.
14:53And this is very alarming, because even today, day 26 of this war, Iran seems to be in total control
15:02of the Strait of Hormuz.
15:03There's conversation around Iran charging some $2 million equivalent in the Chinese currency for permitting ships to cross through.
15:11This would indicate that it's advantage Iran, Iran's on a stronger wicket, and does this also not threaten the petrodollar
15:19weakening America even further?
15:22Yes, this will ultimately, if we start the ground operations, you will see the indiscriminate terrorism likely rise dramatically here.
15:34And I think that's one of the reasons why President Trump has put ICE, and now talking about the National
15:39Guard, going into American airports.
15:42It's not just the TSA, because after all, those troops don't do much with the TSA function.
15:48So I think what's happening is we are preparing for this long war, and what the effects could well be,
15:56and they're going to be much bigger than the world is realizing, although the governments of the world are starting
16:01to figure it out.
16:03That's a very significant point you make, and do elaborate on this.
16:08So American airports, there's an apprehension that there could be elements who could lead to trouble inside the United States
16:17of America.
16:17So to check those elements at airports, instead of just the transport safety authority at airports, ICE elements are being
16:27brought in, National Guard or American troops are being brought to airport.
16:32What role will they play, sir?
16:34So I have studied suicide terrorism.
16:37I'm one of the world's leading experts in suicide terrorism for 25 years.
16:43I compiled the first complete database of all suicide attacks around the world.
16:47I've written multiple books on the subject.
16:50The longer this goes on, the key thing to know, whether it's command-driven or inspired bottom-up,
16:57that mass of crowds at those airports is a target-rich environment for people who want to do harm and
17:05retaliation for, say, the girls being burned to death in Iran, the 200 girls being burned to death.
17:11So this doesn't happen necessarily overnight, but over a few weeks, a few months here, this is really dangerous here.
17:20And you only need a couple of IEDs with a mass of people, hundreds packed like sardines to have mass
17:27casualties here.
17:29And so even if we pick up nine of the 10 bombs or nine of the 10 suicide attackers here,
17:35that's not going to be enough here.
17:37This is why we're really in a trap of escalation.
17:44Now, that's actually very alarming.
17:46And you've studied those suicide bomb attacks in India.
17:49We've had a number of those VBIEDs or Vehicle-Born Improvised Explosive Devices attacks, like in the case of Pulwama
17:57in 2019, where a CRPF bus was targeted.
18:00We lost 40 CRPF personnel.
18:03We've seen this from 2000, the year 2000 itself, where a VBIED was slammed into the gates of the Badami
18:09Bakh contornment in Srinagar.
18:11A core headquarters was targeted.
18:13Is that your apprehension?
18:14This could happen in the United States of America or other parts of the world, other democracies.
18:18And is that the reason why Europe is trying to maintain an arm's length from this conflict?
18:24Well, what's happening, sir, is just to make sure you say arm's length, what's happening, sir, is concentric circles of
18:31escalation.
18:33Horizontal geographic circles expanding.
18:35It's not just Iran anymore.
18:37It's not just simply even the region anymore.
18:39Notice I'm talking about airports in the United States.
18:43So it's horizontal, but it's also vertical escalation.
18:47The indiscriminate, it's not just simply now no ships passing through the Straits of Hormuz.
18:54There are very few.
18:55Not just $100 a barrel or $120 or even $150 a barrel.
18:59Now we're talking about damage, permanent damage, long-term damage to oil installations and people.
19:07And when people die, that's permanent.
19:11It indeed is.
19:12Now, the Pentagon is seeking $200 billion to carry forward the campaign.
19:18Is this directly then advantage Iran, a weaker side that not only remains in the battle, but is imposing costs
19:25on the world's most powerful armed forces?
19:29What you are seeing is Iran has fully prepared, not just for decades for this war, but since the June
19:36bombing.
19:37And they are really ready.
19:39They have gotten all their ducks in order, all their strategies in order.
19:43And what they're doing is not just simply surviving.
19:47They are using their asymmetric tools, the drones, the mines, et cetera, et cetera, to gain power.
19:55So this is morphing from a war for survival for Iran to a war, a bid for geopolitical power.
20:05And right now, that is in advantage Iran in a big way.
20:10And there's no reason to think Iran's given that up, that power of 20% of the world's oil.
20:16Now, this is why we're seeing here, we should never have gone down the escalation trap, is what I call
20:25it on the substack.
20:26Now, usually, the escalation ladder is wargamed very extensively at every level, at the level of within the army, with
20:35the government, within the armed forces.
20:38CENTCOM would have done it.
20:39The Pentagon would have done it.
20:40The White House would have done it.
20:42President Trump now says negotiations are on.
20:44He says he's received a very expensive present, but he won't give details of that very expensive present that he's
20:51received from Iran.
20:52But it's Iran that's actually setting conditions, including who they choose to negotiate with.
20:57They don't want to negotiate with Steve Witkoff or Jared Kushner.
21:01They want to negotiate with J.D. Vance.
21:03What does that indicate?
21:05Is Iran on a stronger wicket here?
21:08So, I have taught for the U.S. Air Force, I've been involved in war games, and here's the fundamental
21:14fact.
21:15When you're in a war game with generals, and they're talking about moving forces, this is still military, military like
21:23chess, so to speak.
21:24But when you're in a real war, that military move interacts with politics in mega ways.
21:32Those generals don't have a clue about those politics.
21:35That's not part of putting a bomb on a target.
21:38They don't study the politics.
21:39Now, they may be informed.
21:41They may have intel, get brief.
21:43That's not the level of being a black belt in the politics.
21:47That's where I have come in.
21:48That's why my taught for the Air Force, my contribution was not how to put a bomb on a target.
21:53I wasn't designing a marine amphibious landing.
21:56I'm talking to them about escalation dynamics, about what happens when you have the interaction of the military chess move
22:05with real-world politics and where that goes.
22:09And that's what you're seeing was not taken into account.
22:12And it really is difficult to take it into account because the generals are not experts in politics.
22:18That's just not what they do.
22:21So, that larger picture perhaps wasn't war-gamed or not war-gamed effectively.
22:26Professor Pape, for joining me here on this India Today special broadcast, many thanks.
22:31And this does threaten to be a very serious escalation trap.
22:35We'll come back to you for more on this as the story develops.
22:37I will be doing another live briefing on April 4th, 5 p.m. Eastern time.
22:44Thank you for having me.
22:45Cheers.
22:46Many thanks for being a part of this discussion.
22:48Now, there's breaking news that's coming in from Iran on these negotiations that are currently on.
22:54Now, these are, of course, media reports that are coming from Tehran that cite an official who's laid out five
22:59specific conditions under which Iran may agree to end the war.
23:06Condition one, a complete halt to aggression and to assassinations.
23:13So, no more decapitation, no more strikes.
23:17Two, establishment of a concrete mechanism to ensure that war is not reimposed on the Islamic Republic of Iran.
23:28So, a cast iron guarantee there will be no future attacks on Iran.
23:33Guaranteed and clear.
23:35Defined payment of war damages.
23:38This is something that Iran is very clear about.
23:43All the damage caused in these past 26 days and, of course, from what sources were earlier telling India today
23:50that Iran's also very miffed with those 12-day, that 12-day war in June 2025.
23:55So, day one, defined payment for war damages.
23:59Condition number four, the conclusion of war across all fronts.
24:04All resistance groups involved throughout the region will no longer be targeted.
24:09So, no targeting of Hamas.
24:11No targeting of Houthis.
24:13No targeting of Shia militia in Iraq.
24:16No targeting of Hezbollah in Lebanon.
24:19No more operations against Iran's proxies.
24:23Number five, international recognition and guarantees regarding Iran's sovereign right to exercise authority over the Strait of Hormuz.
24:33And this is a condition that Iran is very clear about.
24:37International recognition and guarantees regarding Iran's sovereign right to exercise authority over the Strait of Hormuz.
24:43So, it's not Iran and Oman, not Iran and other countries in the region, but only Iran.
24:51These are the conditions that Iran is putting forward.
24:54A maximalist position.
24:55Senior Iranian officials have also told a wire agency, Reuters, that Iran's initial response to the U.S. proposal was
25:03not positive.
25:05Tehran is still reviewing the 15-point proposal that's been sent by the United States of America.
25:11We'll talk about this in greater detail, but I want to focus for the moment on America talking about boots
25:20on ground.
25:20Now, is this just coercive tactics?
25:23Is this the 21st century equivalent of Bismarck's gunboat diplomacy?
25:30That you send in boots on ground, you send in additional warships.
25:34Let me bring in Commander David Levy, Senior Research Fellow at the Begin Sadaat Center for Strategic Studies, a former
25:42U.S. Navy commander, a former diplomat and former director of theater security cooperation for U.S. forces at the
25:49Central Command.
25:50Joining us on this broadcast, Commander Levy, welcome.
25:52Vice Admiral Shekhar Sina is former Flag Officer Commanding-in-Chief of Western Naval Command.
25:57Someone who's been to Kharg Island, knows the Persian Gulf, has sailed in that area, joins us on this broadcast,
26:03is a naval aviator.
26:06Admiral Sina, welcome.
26:07Sandeep Unnithan, my colleague and senior journalist, joins us on this show.
26:11Commander Levy, let me begin by asking you, your reading of elements of the 82nd Airborne and two MEUs, the
26:19Marine Expeditionary Units, being sent to the area of responsibility of CENTCOM.
26:23Is the U.S. set to escalate this war and put boots on ground?
26:29Well, maybe.
26:30So, the purpose of sending the ground troops are to give the president options.
26:36So, as you said, we are sending two Marine Expeditionary Units, the Tripoli and the Boxer.
26:43That will put about 4,500 Marines in theater, plus all their support, which includes F-35s and other aircraft.
26:52And then, of course, we're also talking about sending in the 82nd Airborne.
26:59It's important to understand that the troops coming in and of themselves is not an escalation.
27:04The escalation comes depending on how the president uses them.
27:07So, if the troops come in and they don't do very much except be present, and this is part of
27:13the negotiation tactics, then that's not an escalation.
27:16But they're there, and they're sending a message.
27:18If they're being used in special forces, which are probably happening right now between Israel and the United States already,
27:25then, again, that's not an escalation.
27:27That's something that's ongoing.
27:28However, if the president decides to do something larger than that, such as taking Khark Island or sending Marines to
27:37help reopen the Spirato Hormuz, that would be an escalation.
27:41But it might also fall into the concept of you escalate to de-escalate, and that all depends on what
27:47the president thinks Iran is going to do and respond.
27:50Okay, escalate, de-escalate is what you look at it as.
27:54Admiral Sina, you've been to the Khark Island.
27:57If I remember correctly, you know the defenses along the Strait of Hormuz.
28:02400 kilometers plus inside the Strait of Hormuz is the Khark Island.
28:06You look at this talk of deployment as coercive diplomacy, a threat to put boots on ground, or preparation to
28:14actually put boots on ground.
28:18Thank you for getting me on your program.
28:21You know, Gaurav, these are all applications of pressure.
28:25So, you keep the troops because they are quite far off.
28:28They have been brought very close.
28:29They will be in one of the bases or maybe more than one bases of the Americans on the Gulf
28:34side, on the other side of the Gulf.
28:36So, that is one.
28:37In case these talks seem to be failing and Iran seems to be really getting out of hand, right?
28:43Like they have already rejected the, you know, the plans which have been given by 15 points which have been
28:49given by U.S.
28:50And similarly, the Iranian five-point, you know, the proposal has been rejected.
28:56They have said, no, it is not reasonable.
28:57That's what President Trump has said.
28:58So, I think that they are just preparing and hoping that these messages will put Iran on the back foot
29:06and compel them to stay on the, you know, the table for discussion.
29:12Apparently, the talks are being led by J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Rubio.
29:17So, this is the highest level that is possible to our administration.
29:21So, I think at the moment we should not consider it to be a escalatory.
29:27Till such time the boots are on ground.
29:29It is only a preparation and a pressure on the Iranians that they get the message and they understand.
29:36Coming back to your Khark Island issue, Gaurab, it's not easy to take over the Khark Island
29:42because, you know, there are so many anti-aircraft and anti-personnel devices on that
29:46and there are about 20 or 1000 people there.
29:49So, you know, it will lead to fair amount of casualties, you know, unless they want to go and bomb
29:57that place fully.
29:58We should understand the ultimate reason for all this is what is happening is to take control of oil in
30:07Venezuela,
30:07which is the largest producer, and in Iran so that China's rapid rise growth in economy can be slowed down.
30:16That's the bigger aim, right?
30:18So, if they come to a conclusion that Iran is willing to share the production of oil, which they will
30:24do,
30:24it will come down finally in a while.
30:27So, that is the ultimate aim of America.
30:30It is not what you see.
30:31What you see is fine.
30:33That is only one way to achieving that.
30:35So, I firmly believe that it is primarily to slow down the Chinese growth.
30:41Okay.
30:42And that's the end game.
30:45And Israel's end game is to ensure that there is no threat to Israeli territory from Iran.
30:50But Sandeep, as of now, is there anything to suggest 26 days of relentless bombing of Iran,
30:58both by Israel and by the United States, anything to suggest Iran's on the back foot?
31:04On the contrary, Gaurav, there's everything to suggest that Iran is actually on the front foot
31:09and it seems to be dictating terms to the United States.
31:12This is a scenario that we have not seen in the 21st century,
31:15that a country that's being bombed literally day and night from the air by both two of the strongest air
31:20forces in the world
31:23retains its ability to strike back, its command and control, its C2 is intact,
31:27it's got ballistic missiles, drones and of course it's used very old tech, you know, 100-year-old technology
31:35that is naval mines to blockade the Straits of Hormuz and it is now threatening to escalate.
31:41If the U.S. comes in, as we were just discussing, if the U.S. comes in and starts capturing
31:47islands,
31:47Iran is threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz completely, which is mining it extensively,
31:53it's got those boats hiding in tunnels there, it's threatened to even use floating sea mines.
32:00I mean, this is the level of escalation they've planned with very low tech.
32:04So while we've been talking about the Shahid 136 and the ballistic missiles,
32:08we've forgotten that they have a very large arsenal of sea mines and as we've discussed,
32:14the Strait of Hormuz is a very narrow passage.
32:17So Iran is literally using stuff that it's been planning to do so for decades
32:23and this is the moment that, it's the moment of decision for them
32:27and they seem to be dictating terms to the United States.
32:30It's unprecedented, Gaurav.
32:32Commander Levy, would this be a massive setback to the United States of America?
32:3626 days into this conflict, Iran's actually calling the shots despite being bombed,
32:41as many argue, maybe even to Stone Age,
32:44the fact that they decide who they want to negotiate with,
32:47J.D. Vance and not Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner?
32:51Yeah, I wouldn't describe that at all as an Iranian success or victory.
32:56Let me first describe, Iran has been planning for this control of the Strait
33:02if they had been attacked for decades.
33:04And the United States was very much aware of that.
33:06So the United States took an approach of destroying the Iranian Navy from afar, and it did.
33:13And it's got 40 ships sunk.
33:15But the problem with that strategy is that it does make the problem of the Strait easier,
33:20but it doesn't solve it.
33:21So the Strait still needs to be addressed.
33:23And the United States is addressing it.
33:25And it's got the Marines arriving.
33:27It's got aircraft in the area, including the Warthog,
33:30which does an enormous amount of damage to Iran's IRGC Navy, small boats.
33:37And the Strait is a problem.
33:39It's an economic problem more than a military problem.
33:41It will be resolved.
33:43But in the background of all of this little sector or theater
33:46is senior leadership in Iran being killed every day,
33:50their missile programs being destroyed,
33:52their missile capacity being destroyed.
33:56I am in Israel right now.
33:58Day one of the conflict had over 100 missiles come towards us.
34:02Today, Iran's lucky if they put out six or eight.
34:03So, no, the fact that Iran has created a specific problem in the theater
34:09is pretty small compared to the world problems Iran is facing.
34:12Permit me, they may have sent in over 100 missiles, rockets, and drones on day one
34:18of an older generation that were intercepted.
34:21Even the six or eight they're able to send today,
34:24are they hitting either Tel Aviv or Dimona
34:28or other vital assets and vital points inside Israel?
34:33Haifa, for example.
34:34And is that a serious cause for concern for Israel?
34:38So, let's be clear.
34:39They're not hitting vital spots.
34:40They're hitting civilians.
34:41Their targeting is either not very good
34:44or they're deliberately attacking civilians.
34:47While Israel is attacking senior leadership,
34:50command and control positions,
34:52facilities that create missiles, facilities that launch missiles,
34:55Iran is killing civilians.
34:57They're killing children.
34:58They're killing women.
34:59They're killing people that have nothing to do with the conflict.
35:03It's a horrible strategy that they're engaged in.
35:05It's not going to work.
35:07Israel is used to do this sort of thing.
35:09We all go to bunkers when we have to.
35:11We live with it.
35:13And they've tried attacking targets, I think,
35:16like Haifa and Dimona,
35:17which is the home of Israel's nuclear program.
35:19They miss and kill civilians.
35:22Sure.
35:23175 school kids and civilians were also killed in Iran.
35:27Of course, that's a matter of investigation.
35:29You're absolutely right that, you know,
35:31there are unfortunate losses of life that's happening.
35:34But Admiral Sina,
35:36your reading of the situation on day 26,
35:39the amount of bombing that's taken place inside Iran,
35:42their command and control structure
35:44does remain in place in your appreciation.
35:48The fact that they still control the state of Hormuz,
35:51despite the bombing,
35:52the A-10 Warthogs have been targeting,
35:54I'm told, the A-64 Apaches,
35:57they've been targeting the slower-moving drones
35:59from the south side.
36:01But the north side remains completely in control.
36:03And now Iran says,
36:04we want total control of the state of Hormuz.
36:06Unlike the Suez Canal,
36:07it's not a man-made entity.
36:08This is a natural entity.
36:10But Iran says,
36:10we want to control it.
36:11What does that indicate, sir?
36:14You know, Gaurav,
36:16yes,
36:16a lot of losses have taken place
36:18on the surface of the command and control.
36:20Let's not forget that
36:22Iran's majority of command and control centers
36:24are underground,
36:26very close to the, you know,
36:27the hills that they have,
36:28a large number of them.
36:29And hitting them
36:30and destroying them completely,
36:31you know,
36:32can be a very tough task.
36:33So, I would say,
36:35as far as the emergency
36:35and the number two
36:37and standby command and control system
36:39must have been already activated,
36:41which I am confident
36:42that it is, you know,
36:43underground
36:43and very close to the basement of the hills.
36:46Now, the Israelis will know
36:47probably exactly where it is.
36:49And therefore,
36:50the Israeli strikes,
36:51if you see,
36:52you know,
36:52it is taking place in those areas.
36:55You know,
36:55of course,
36:56they are also hitting the
36:58overground control centers
36:59to, you know,
37:00you know,
37:01if you break out,
37:02break up all the communication centers,
37:04it also creates a human cry
37:06within,
37:07within the Iranian population.
37:09If they are not able
37:10to talk to each other
37:11and they are completely
37:11in the darkness,
37:12there is no internet.
37:13So, they are hoping that,
37:14you know,
37:15it will lead to some kind of
37:17demonstration
37:18or some kind of
37:19complaint against the government.
37:21But I suspect that,
37:22you know,
37:22this,
37:23that may not work
37:24because now,
37:25people,
37:26all groups of people in Iran
37:28are more united
37:28than they were ever before
37:30because the Ayatollahs,
37:32sort of assassination
37:33or his killing.
37:34So,
37:34I think that,
37:35you know,
37:36this is,
37:37yeah,
37:38they will,
37:38and as Sandeep said,
37:40you know,
37:40they can actually do a lot
37:41as far as the
37:43Hormuz is concerned.
37:44If they have floating mines
37:45or even the,
37:46you know,
37:47mines which are on the ground
37:49and which get activated
37:50because of the acoustics
37:51or the magnetic field,
37:53let me tell you,
37:53clearing them
37:54and declare them safe
37:55is a massive,
37:56massive operation
37:57which even,
37:59you know,
37:59dozens of minesweepers
38:00will require many,
38:01many days to clear it.
38:03And how many minesweepers
38:04are there in this area
38:05right now,
38:06Sandeep?
38:07That would be a challenge
38:08and the fact that,
38:09Sandeep,
38:10if a threat is issued,
38:12for example,
38:12if 1,000 Marines have been,
38:141,000 paratroopers
38:16have been moved,
38:165,000 Marines have been moved
38:18and yet Iran does not crumble,
38:20then you'll have to use them.
38:22Once you've issued a threat,
38:23you cannot not use that threat
38:24because that would make America
38:26look even weaker
38:27and this,
38:28apart from the fact
38:28that there are 50,000 troops
38:30already deployed
38:30in that area.
38:32So,
38:33you know,
38:33as Professor Pape was saying,
38:35has America
38:36got itself in that escalation trap?
38:38Well,
38:38absolutely, Gaurav.
38:39And you know,
38:39what I see happening over here
38:41is that,
38:42I mean,
38:43what Komdor Levy said
38:44is that there is an escalation here,
38:46that the fact is
38:46that you announced
38:47that you're going to be sending
38:49MEUs and ARGs there
38:50to the thing,
38:51that puts Iran on alert.
38:53Then when they finally appear,
38:54that's another escalation.
38:55When you finally deploy them,
38:57that's a third,
38:58you know,
38:59level of escalation.
39:00But this is all going back
39:02to the Gulf of Tonkin,
39:031965.
39:04That's how I see this going,
39:06Gaurav,
39:06because you saw a small
39:09detachment of the U.S. forces
39:11entering Vietnam
39:12and before you know it,
39:13battalions had become brigades,
39:14brigades had become divisions
39:15and divisions had become
39:17corps and armies.
39:18And they were there
39:19for a very long time.
39:20This is,
39:20this is why
39:21there have been a lot of voices
39:22in the United States
39:23telling President Trump
39:25to cut his losses,
39:27declare victory and exit.
39:28He's brought about
39:29regime change.
39:30They saw this coming,
39:31the spiral.
39:33Is there an apprehension
39:34of that spiral?
39:35What is the end game
39:37and the time frame
39:38for that end game?
39:39Or this could,
39:40you know,
39:40become a forever war
39:42like Vietnam,
39:43like Afghanistan,
39:44like Iraq?
39:46Yeah,
39:46I don't think this is like
39:47any of those
39:49because the population
39:50of Iran
39:51is very much
39:51against its own regime.
39:53And I think the end game
39:54for this,
39:54I think we're watching
39:55phase one right now,
39:56which is the weakening
39:57of the regime
39:58and the destroying
39:59of its command and control
40:00and its senior leadership.
40:02And phase two,
40:03and I don't know
40:03when that's going to start,
40:04so I can't give you
40:05a timeline,
40:06will be an uprising again.
40:07And this time,
40:08the United States
40:09and Israel
40:11will be standing behind
40:12the people.
40:13And I don't just mean
40:14that figuratively.
40:15I mean,
40:15there's probably
40:15going to be air support,
40:16there's probably
40:17going to be drone support,
40:18there's probably
40:18special forces
40:19already embedded
40:21and they're going
40:22to see help.
40:23And if you need
40:25an analogy,
40:26this is closer
40:26to the American Revolution
40:27where the locals
40:28are having a revolution
40:29and a great power,
40:31which in this case
40:31was France,
40:32helped the revolution
40:33to succeed.
40:34Okay.
40:35So 1776 happening
40:37in 2026
40:38is what you think
40:40will happen.
40:41We'll track that story
40:42very closely.
40:43Commander Levy,
40:44many thanks for joining me.
40:45Admiral Sinha and Sandeep,
40:46stay on with me
40:47because I want to come back
40:48to our top story
40:49for a moment.
40:51And this is
40:52the External Affairs Minister's
40:54very strong statement,
40:56of course,
40:56coming to India today
40:57through sources
40:58where he called out Pakistan,
41:00where Pakistan is claiming
41:02to be this great mediator
41:05in this ongoing war
41:06in West Asia.
41:07Now, according to sources,
41:09during this all-party meeting,
41:11India's External Affairs Minister,
41:13Dr. S. Jai Shankar,
41:14he said,
41:15India is not a Dalal nation.
41:18We are not a country
41:19of fixers and middlemen.
41:20And this was in response
41:21to some of the opposition leaders
41:23raising the point
41:24that Islamabad
41:25is on center stage.
41:26Islamabad is reported
41:27to be that big power broker,
41:30broker of peace
41:31between United States
41:32and Iran
41:32in what appears to be
41:34a bid to please
41:35both Washington, D.C.
41:37and Tehran.
41:37Pakistan's Prime Minister
41:39Shabash Sharif
41:40posted a message
41:42calling for peace,
41:43conveniently overlooking
41:44his country's own
41:45track record of conflict,
41:46including in regions
41:48like Khaybar, Pakhtoonghua
41:50and Balochistan.
41:52The External Affairs Minister's
41:53remarks further underscore
41:54India's very balanced
41:56and self-assured approach
41:58according to sources
41:59that does not rely
42:00on desperation
42:02that India is not
42:03seeking rent
42:04the way Pakistan would.
42:06Oh, I've brokered peace.
42:07Please give me something.
42:08Give me money.
42:09That is what Pakistan does.
42:11You know,
42:11begging is their
42:12national pastime.
42:13But be that as it may,
42:15India has remained
42:17engaged,
42:18multi-aligned,
42:19seeking peace,
42:20but asking those countries
42:21to sort out
42:22their differences.
42:24And if any assistance
42:24is required,
42:25India is there.
42:26I want to bring in
42:26Sushant Sareen,
42:27Senior Fellow
42:28at the Observer Research
42:29Foundation on this broadcast.
42:31Sushant, welcome.
42:32Sources telling India today,
42:34External Affairs Minister
42:35told the opposition,
42:36Pakistan ki tara
42:37am dalal nahi hai.
42:38Oh, what's to that effect?
42:39Your reading of this.
42:41I think a more appropriate word
42:43would have started with a P
42:44and ended with a P
42:45and is a four-letter word,
42:47but we shall not use it
42:48on your channel.
42:50But look,
42:51the fact is that,
42:52you know,
42:53this business
42:54which the Pakistanis
42:55are into,
42:55that they will be
42:57the mediator,
42:58they will be
42:58the messenger boy,
42:59they will be the courier
43:00between various countries.
43:02This is,
43:02they're trying to find
43:03some kind of relevance
43:04in the international system.
43:06But the fact of the matter
43:08remains that,
43:08let us assume for a moment
43:10that there will be
43:11some kind of a dialogue
43:12taking place
43:13in Islamabad.
43:14Question is,
43:15will the Pakistanis
43:16be in the room?
43:18Forget about being on the table.
43:20Will they be even in the room?
43:21Or will the discussions
43:23be held between the principles?
43:24Number one.
43:25Number two,
43:26if you want to play the mediator
43:28and you want to play
43:29even a facilitator,
43:30there must be some bona fides
43:32which you have
43:33with all sides
43:34in this particular conflict.
43:37For example,
43:38Israel is a very important
43:40component of this
43:41entire conflict.
43:43Will the Pakistanis
43:45bring the Israelis
43:46in Islamabad
43:47to be part
43:48of the discussions?
43:49Or will they say that,
43:50no,
43:50it's only between America
43:52and Iran.
43:54What about the other
43:55Arab countries?
43:56They are equally
43:57party to this entire conflict
43:59and they have
44:00very critical interests.
44:02Third,
44:03again,
44:03when I talk about
44:04the bona fides,
44:05what is the kind of
44:07political,
44:08military,
44:09strategic capital
44:09that Pakistan
44:10can bring to bear
44:11to push both sides
44:13into some kind of a deal?
44:14They can't.
44:15They have nothing.
44:16They are dependent
44:17on everybody else.
44:18They would probably
44:19want money from everybody.
44:22Let me bring in
44:23Admiral Sina
44:25into this conversation.
44:26Admiral Sina,
44:28you agree,
44:29Pakistan is doing Dalali,
44:30but they have done this
44:31Dalali pretty well
44:32in the past.
44:33You know,
44:34as sources point out,
44:36in the 1980s,
44:3779 was that revolution,
44:3980s onwards,
44:40America was using Pakistan
44:42to know what's happening
44:43inside Iran
44:44or they have done that
44:45even earlier
44:46with China.
44:47Henry Kissinger
44:48used this route
44:49to engage with China.
44:52Well,
44:53Pakistan has always
44:54been used
44:54and thrown out
44:55thereafter.
44:56I think
44:57it is exactly
44:58the same thing.
44:59Pakistan doesn't
45:00have any weight,
45:01doesn't have any
45:01political weight,
45:02Gaurav,
45:03and a lot of people
45:04are saying
45:04it's a fake news.
45:05I just saw
45:05something on the X.
45:07It says
45:08it's a fake news
45:09that they are mediating.
45:10I mean,
45:11I really fail
45:12to understand
45:13how Pakistan
45:14can be made
45:15central
45:16to the
45:17entire discussion
45:18between Iran.
45:20Iran is very
45:21angry with Pakistan.
45:22Give her a chance,
45:23they will,
45:23you know,
45:24they will throw them
45:25out of the discussion
45:25room if at all
45:26they are there.
45:27So,
45:28Munir may be
45:29a,
45:29you know,
45:30very good friend
45:31or a good boy
45:32of Trump,
45:33but they have
45:34to be acceptable
45:35to both sides.
45:36I don't think
45:37that no discussion
45:39can go on
45:39if a person
45:40is not acceptable
45:41to both the sides
45:42and I don't think
45:42Pakistan will be,
45:43you know,
45:45acceptable to Iran.
45:46Okay.
45:47So,
45:47you know,
45:48you mentioned
45:48Munir and his
45:49proximity to
45:50Donald Trump,
45:51you know,
45:51usually,
45:53I wouldn't want
45:54to use the word
45:54a pet dog,
45:57you know,
45:57Sandeep,
45:58but does Munir
45:59actually have
46:00that kind of stature
46:01or as Admiral
46:02Sinha points out,
46:03it's a use and throw
46:05policy,
46:05you know,
46:05have your tin soldier,
46:06use him and then
46:07abandon him.
46:07It's been done
46:08in the past.
46:09It's always been
46:10the case,
46:10Gaurav.
46:10In fact,
46:11even before the
46:12creation of Pakistan,
46:13if you look at
46:13the declassified papers
46:14from the UK
46:15general staff
46:161946,
46:17where they say
46:18that,
46:18look,
46:18there are going
46:19to be two countries,
46:20India and Pakistan.
46:21Which country
46:21do you think
46:22is going to give us
46:22bases,
46:23access to Central Asia?
46:25It's going to be
46:25Pakistan.
46:26So,
46:26literally,
46:27even before the
46:27creation of Pakistan,
46:29the West knew
46:29that they would be
46:30useful to them
46:31for providing bases,
46:32for providing drone bases.
46:35You know,
46:35the kind of things
46:35that the Pakistan
46:36military has done
46:37for the United States,
46:39for other countries,
46:40is unimaginable.
46:41To allow the U.S.
46:43to launch drone strikes
46:44from within Pakistan
46:45to target
46:46their own citizens,
46:47to pick up
46:48their own citizens
46:49and sell them
46:50to the United States
46:51to collect bounties
46:51as General Parvez
46:52Musharraf has done
46:53in the past.
46:541971,
46:55of course,
46:55we discussed
46:56that the price
46:58for being mediators
46:59between China
47:00and the United States
47:02was that the U.S.
47:03look away
47:03from the genocide
47:04they were doing
47:04in East Pakistan.
47:06So,
47:06Pakistan is capable
47:07of the most
47:08astonishing feats
47:09in history,
47:11Gaurav,
47:11that most sensible
47:12nations wouldn't
47:13even dare think of.
47:14And that is precisely
47:15the reason why
47:16they are so useful
47:17for all of the West.
47:18Sushant Sari,
47:18in the last 30 seconds
47:19I have on this part
47:20of the show,
47:21you have Tulsi Gabbard,
47:22Director of National
47:23Intelligence
47:24who talks about
47:25Pakistan posing
47:26a massive threat
47:27to the United States
47:28of America
47:28with making these
47:30missiles that can
47:31hit even the U.S.
47:32and ICBM
47:33that would mean
47:34and having a nuclear
47:35bomb and their
47:36army chief being
47:37a radical Islamist
47:38and Pakistan playing
47:40this role of a
47:41Dalal,
47:41it doesn't add up,
47:43Sushant?
47:44No,
47:45it adds up
47:45because there is
47:46a kind of strategic
47:47myopia that has
47:48always guided
47:49the American policy
47:50in the region
47:51and they suffer
47:53from what I have
47:53always called
47:54an abused
47:54wife syndrome
47:55that they know
47:56that this is
47:56an abusive character
47:58and yet,
47:59you know,
48:00you will continue
48:00to stay with him
48:01in a relationship
48:02simply because
48:03you think
48:03he will reform
48:04one fine day
48:05and that one fine
48:06day never comes.
48:07Now,
48:07the other part
48:08of it is
48:08from an American
48:10point of view,
48:10Pakistan is a
48:12useful idiot
48:13because,
48:14you know,
48:14they will do
48:15everything
48:16like Sandeep
48:17was laying out
48:18for us,
48:18they will do
48:19everything for
48:19the Americans
48:20and they will
48:21get some
48:21payment for it
48:22but at the
48:23end of the day,
48:24Gaurav,
48:24you need to
48:25ask yourself,
48:26what has
48:27Pakistan to
48:27show for
48:28all the monies
48:29that have come
48:30to it
48:32as geopolitical
48:33rents?
48:34Where are they
48:34today?
48:35The villas
48:36that are
48:36ex-armi chiefs
48:37and the islands
48:38that they own.
48:40Yeah,
48:41but listen,
48:42here is the
48:42thing,
48:42they are today
48:43just above
48:44Afghanistan
48:44in every
48:45parameter,
48:47even in the
48:47subcontinent,
48:48even in the
48:49subcontinent,
48:50just above
48:50Afghanistan
48:51and Afghanistan
48:52is a country
48:53which has had
48:53war for 40
48:54years.
48:55You let the
48:56Afghan
48:56their own,
48:57they will
48:57probably overtake
48:58the Pakistani
48:59country.
48:59This is a
49:00debate that we
49:00must have
49:01and a longer
49:01debate in the
49:02days to come.
49:02I want to
49:03thank all my
49:03guests because
49:04I have to
49:04quickly take
49:05this report
49:05that my
49:07colleagues have
49:07sent from
49:08the war zone.
49:10These are
49:10reports that are
49:10coming in from
49:11an overwhelmed
49:12hospital in
49:13Tel Aviv to
49:14the shattered
49:14coastline of
49:15Lebanon.
49:16Pranayupadhyay
49:17and Ashravani
49:17with these
49:18reports.
49:26As the
49:27West Asia
49:27war enters
49:28day 26,
49:29tensions are
49:30escalating sharply
49:31with fresh
49:32attacks and
49:32growing civil
49:33in distress.
49:34Even as
49:34India today
49:35continues to
49:36report fearlessly
49:37from the
49:37heart of the
49:38conflict.
49:41Reporting from
49:42a hospital in
49:43Tel Aviv,
49:43India today's
49:44Pranayupadhyay
49:45found overwhelmed
49:46medical facilities
49:47and civilians
49:48bearing the
49:48brunt of
49:49relentless
49:49attacks.
49:51I am
49:52currently in
49:53the
49:53Ichiloh hospital
49:54of Tel Aviv.
49:54This is one
49:55of the most
49:55prominent
49:56hospitals of
49:57Israel which
49:57caters around
49:582 million
49:59people every
49:59day.
50:00You can
50:00equate it
50:00with the
50:01aims of
50:01Israel.
50:03And you
50:03can see
50:03behind me
50:04on the
50:05screen,
50:05the alerts
50:06have been
50:06sounded.
50:07And currently,
50:08I am in
50:09the basement
50:10of this
50:10hospital which
50:11is usually
50:12served,
50:13caters as
50:14a parking
50:15lot.
50:15But now
50:16the hospital
50:17administration
50:17has converted
50:18it into a
50:19full-fledged
50:20medical facility
50:21and this
50:22facility is
50:23around 800
50:24bedded and
50:24most critical
50:25patients have
50:26been shifted
50:26by this
50:27hospital to
50:27this basement
50:28and they
50:29are being
50:29treated here.
50:30Tirupati ji,
50:30how are you?
50:34How are you?
50:34How are you?
50:35better than
50:37I've come to
50:3818 days
50:39in hospital.
50:42Aså±…
50:45this whole
50:46can
50:47have
50:49been
50:50the
50:50treatment
50:50which
50:50place
50:50has
50:50been
50:51in
50:52in
50:54way
51:13Meanwhile, in Lebanon, the devastation is equally stuck after Israeli strikes pounded key areas.
51:23From the southern coastline, India Today's Ashrafani reports exclusively from the war zone where life has come to a standstill.
51:55As the conflict deepens and spreads across borders, the human cost continues to rise within each passing day.
52:02With Pranay Upadhyay in Israel and Ashrafani in Lebanon, Bureau Report, India Today.
Comments