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Ketegangan memuncak di Asia Barat dengan serangan berterusan terhadap infrastruktur tenaga Iran dan penutupan de facto Selat Hormuz, sekali gus mengancam kestabilan bekalan minyak serta gas ke Asia Tenggara yang sangat bergantung pada laluan itu.
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00:00Conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran has escalated sharply in recent days,
00:05despite public claims from President Donald Trump that Washington is seeking a path toward de-escalation within the past 48
00:12hours alone.
00:13Multiple strikes have hit Iranian energy infrastructure, including gas facilities and a pipeline in Isfahan and Khashoggi.
00:22Barely a day after Trump announced a temporary pause on planned attacks against Iran's power grid,
00:29Iranian officials deny any negotiation with Washington assisting.
00:33They are prepared for a prolonged conflict.
00:36Explosions have been reported across Tehran, Tabirj, Quraq and other cities,
00:41underscoring that the war is entering a more volatile and unpredictable phase.
00:46At the same time, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed amid the widening confrontation,
00:52causing one of the most severe energy disruptions in modern history.
00:55And definitely, we have our guests ready on the line to help us understand this is David Stapart,
01:00Country Director, Singapore Design Shura and Associates.
01:04I want to say thank you very much, David.
01:06Firstly, we take a look at Donald Trump has said that the US and Israel delay an attack toward...
01:12Donald Trump recently claimed that the US and Israel have delayed a strike on Iran's electricity infrastructure.
01:18Yet, last night, an energy facility near Isfahan was attacked.
01:22Despite his statements suggesting a desire for calm the actions and make signals regarding de-escalation efforts,
01:31David, do you foresee any genuine potential for de-escalation in the near future?
01:36What's your POV?
01:39Thanks for having me, Nina.
01:41Excellent question.
01:42My reading is that any de-escalation will be a tactical de-escalation, not a strategic de-escalation.
01:50As you mentioned, there were reports of strikes on energy facilities.
01:54And even if the US and Israel do not attack Iran's energy infrastructure,
02:00they would still attack military targets, missile sites, defense industry targets.
02:05So, anything that is being announced now is not a full step back from confrontation.
02:11It looks more like an effort to keep pressure on Iran while avoiding the most economically explosive targets.
02:19What likely changed the calculation is that Gulf states want that strikes on Iranian energy and power facilities
02:25could trigger retaliation against oil, gas, and desalination infrastructure across the region.
02:32So, Washington seems to have recognized that attacking energy targets could create a much bigger regional and global economic shock.
02:39The White House may be de-escalating on energy, but it is not de-escalating on pressure.
02:45In response to the reported plans to strike Iran's electricity infrastructure,
02:50Tehran has vowed to retaliate by fully closing the Strait of Hormuz.
02:54How significant would be disruption be at a critical choke point like the Strait of Hormuz?
02:59And what would it mean for global oil supply, particularly for import-dependent Southeast Asia?
03:05Because we are already seeing Thailand experience petrol stations' closures
03:10and the Philippines consider grounding commercial aircraft.
03:15Yes, the risk is extremely serious because the Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important energy choke points
03:22in the world.
03:23The United States Energy Information Administration has data that in 2024,
03:29about 20 million barrels of oil per day moved through the Strait.
03:32That's equal to 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption.
03:38It also carries around one-fifth of global natural gas.
03:43For Asia, the exposure is especially high.
03:47The same U.S. data shows that 84% of crude oil and 83% of liquefied natural gas moving
03:54through the Strait went to Asian markets.
03:57The International Energy Agency also says Southeast Asia relies on the Middle East for about 60% of its oil
04:04imports.
04:04So if Iranian energy facilities were struck, the risk is not just losing Iranian output.
04:10The bigger risk is retaliation that disrupts shipping, tanker insurance, loading terminals, refinery feedstock flows across the Gulf.
04:19And that, of course, would hit import-dependent Southeast Asian economies very quickly,
04:24as you can see, for example, in the Philippines right now, through higher fuel costs, freight costs, inflation.
04:30When one waterway like the Strait of Hormuz carries one-fifth of the world's oil and one-fifth of the
04:36world's liquefied natural gas,
04:38any escalation nearby becomes a global economic event.
04:42And also, a report indicates that Saudi Arabia is reducing energy export to Southeast Asia.
04:48How severe could the impact be on the region?
04:51And for Malaysia, a relatively small oil-producing nation, can domestic output sustain local demand?
04:59At this stage, I would interpret this mainly as a market and logistics adjustment.
05:05So, obviously, it has geopolitical implications.
05:09I think Reuters reported that Saudi Aramco cut oil supply to Asian buyers for a second month in April,
05:16largely because disruption around the Strait of Hormuz has forced more exports to move through Yanbu and the Red Sea.
05:23Reuters also reported that Saudi crude oil exports fell from 7 million barrels per day in February to 4 million
05:31barrels per day in March.
05:33So, the immediate explanation is operational.
05:36Saudi Arabia is rerouting, managing infrastructure constraints,
05:40and prioritizing what grades and routes it can still deliver efficiently.
05:44But when markets tighten, allocation decisions become strategic, whether governments intend them in this way or not.
05:52So, it may begin as a logistics adjustment, but an energy crisis, logistics quickly becomes geopolitics.
06:00For Malaysia specifically, it's also reliant on imports.
06:06So, this is still an issue for every country in the region.
06:12Definitely, the impacts is chain reaction.
06:15And if Southeast Asia faces reduced supply from Saudi Arabia, which alternative suppliers are most likely to step in?
06:21And how could this reshape the region's energy dependency and pricing structures?
06:28The most likely replacement suppliers are Brazil, West Africa, the United States.
06:35Asian refiners are already scrambling for non-Middle Eastern barrels of oil.
06:39But these replacement supplies are not equivalent to Saudi barrels in terms of distance, shipping time, freight cost,
06:47and even refinery fit because there's different types of oil.
06:51It was reported that delivered premiums for Brazilian crude, for example, into China rose dramatically from 2 to 3 United
06:59States dollars to 13 to 14 U.S. dollars.
07:03So, that gives you a sense of how sharply the marginal cost of replacement barrels can rise for Asian buyers.
07:09So, yes, alternative suppliers can step in, but they reshape regional energy economics.
07:16Southeast Asia becomes more dependent on longer haul imports, more exposed to freight costs, and more vulnerable to spot market
07:23pricing.
07:24The replacement barrels exist, but they arrive later and they cost more.
07:31And could this shift in supply accelerate ASEAN's push toward diversification,
07:37whether through renewables, LNG expansions, or new bilateral energy partnerships?
07:45Yes, yes, I think it could.
07:47The International Energy Agency has already warned that Southeast Asia remains highly exposed to energy security risk.
07:54And the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Center for Energy has explicitly called for stronger stockpiling, diversification,
08:03and regional coordination in response to the Middle East crisis.
08:06In the medium term, this should strengthen the case for more renewable power, stronger regional grids, more storage, and more
08:14diversified procurement.
08:16It should also support new bilateral energy relationships outside the Gulf where possible.
08:21But there's also a short-term reality.
08:23Some Asian countries are already increasing coal use because liquefied natural gas supply is tight and expensive.
08:29So diversification may initially mean greater fuel flexibility, not just faster decarbonization.
08:36For Southeast Asia, diversification now means renewables, more flexible gas options, and fewer single-point geopolitical dependencies.
08:46And David, let's stick to a scene where if the conflict were to stop immediately,
08:51how long would it likely take for investors' confidence to recover,
08:54particularly in the energy sector and other major economic sectors?
09:00Yeah, good question.
09:02So there will always be a delay, right?
09:06Like, so even if the conflict stops now, insurers need to adjust risk premiums again.
09:13The shipping will also be delayed because any kind of delivery is not immediate, right?
09:19Like, it takes weeks for oil to reach markets.
09:23So there would not be an immediate effect.
09:26There will be a delay for these adjusted prices to hit the market.
09:33Plus, I think we may see a long-term adjustment here for risk because it's not just that, like, there
09:43is a stop to the conflict and that will bring prices down.
09:46Markets will also price in the potential future risks.
09:50So, for example, that this may happen again at some point in the future.
09:54So I think we will deal with higher prices for quite some time to come.
09:59And lastly, in a prolonged period of geopolitical tensions and supply insecurity,
10:05what policy measures should Southeast Asia governments prioritize to protect their economies from energy shocks and inflationary pressure?
10:16Yeah, that's the question.
10:18So I would see five government priorities in the region.
10:22So first, governments should strengthen fuel reserves and improve coordination across the region.
10:28The Association of Southeast Asian Nations Center for Energy has highlighted the importance of stronger stockpiling, coordinated preparedness.
10:36The Philippines has already declared a national energy emergency because of the Middle East supply risk.
10:44Second, governments should also protect vulnerable households and critical transport sectors with targeted support rather than broad, untargeted subsidies.
10:53This helps reduce inflationary pressure without permanently distorting prices.
10:59And third, they should reduce oil demand where they can.
11:02The International Energy Agency recently recommended measures such as working from home where possible, reducing highway speeds,
11:09encouraging public transport to ease the burden of higher oil prices.
11:14And fourth, they should diversify supply relationships and avoid over-dependence on any one producing region.
11:21So that includes crude oil, refined products, but also liquefied natural gas.
11:26And fifth, they should invest in structural resilience.
11:29That means stronger power grids, better storage, more renewable energy generation, more efficient transport systems, and robust import infrastructure.
11:39So Southeast Asia cannot control what is happening in the Gulf, but it can absolutely control how it is exposed
11:46to the region.
11:49This may be the first five priorities that any country can first do.
11:56But eventually, moving forward, there's a lot of work we need to do, especially how can we navigate all of
12:02these challenges moving forward,
12:04as this is something that is beyond our control.
12:06But as you mentioned, as we navigate this, we need to be more structured and more strategic for more protection
12:15for all of the countries all over the world.
12:17Again, I want to say thank you very much to David Stepad, Country Director, Singapore Design, Shura and Associates.
12:23And definitely all of our discussion here will be featured in astronomy.com or across all social media platform.
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