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The political crisis in Tamil Nadu intensifies as Governor Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar refuses to invite the TVK chief Vijay to form the government without proof of a majority.
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00:01Good evening, you're watching To The Point. I'm Preeti Chaudhary. We come to you from the lovely city of Chennai.
00:06There have been dramatic developments that have taken place over the course of the last 24 hours.
00:11Dramatic at that, but status quo, nothing quite has moved.
00:15Vijay still hoping that he can cobble up the numbers.
00:20The governor has dug in his heels saying nothing doing.
00:23Show me the signatures on paper that you have the majority, which has 118 signatures, and only then will I
00:30allow you to take oath.
00:32Lots of conspiracy theories, lots of political chatter.
00:35All of that coming up. Allow me to take you through the headlines.
00:44Tamil Nadu governor's big assurance to Vijay.
00:47Governor assures Vijay, won't invite any other party, asks Vijay to come with numbers and prove majority.
01:00Resort politics kicks off in Tamil Nadu. 25 AIDMK MLA's camp at a resort in Pudducherry.
01:07Party General Secretary EPS to arrive in Pudducherry shortly to keep the flock together.
01:20India Today accesses prelim post-mortem report of Suvendu's aid, multiple bullet injuries close to Chandra's heart.
01:29Heavy blood loss had led to organ failure.
01:31Emotional Suvendu says, Chandra was like my family.
01:42Moments before chilling, Kolkata shootout caught in camera, two bikes seen chasing Chandra's car before firing shots.
01:49Bike allegedly used to kill Suvendu's aid, seized by Bengal cops.
01:59Bihar Cabinet Expansion Under Chief Minister Samrat Chaudhary, Nitish Kumar's son Nishan Swonin as Minister.
02:06Prime Minister Modi attends oath-taking ceremony in Patna.
02:16One year of Operation Sindhu, Prime Minister changes X-profile picture to Operation Sindhu logo.
02:24India demolished Pakistan terror hubs in POK and strategic strikes in retaliation to Pakistan terrorists' barbaric behalgam attack.
02:45All right, so the latest is that the governor of Tamil Nadu has decided that he wants to see numbers
02:53on the letter
02:54that Vijay has come to him with, not once, but twice this afternoon.
03:00The governor has said, take your time, but come with a majority mark.
03:04Some would suggest and contend that majority is not proven in the governor's residence,
03:12but on the floor of the Assembly.
03:16Lots of political developments and chatter around it.
03:21Here's more.
03:25Tamil Nadu's verdict delivered a political earthquake.
03:29A two-year-old party, TVK, won 108 seats and emerged as the single largest force in the Assembly.
03:38But Vijay still remains outside the gates of power.
03:43Two meetings with Governor Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar in 24 hours.
03:48Same outcome.
03:49No invitation to form government.
03:52Raj Bhavan says the requisite majority support has not yet been established.
03:57Sources say Vijay has been asked to return with support of 118 MLA's.
04:04And constitutionally, the governor does have powers in a fractured mandate.
04:10Article 164 allows the governor to appoint the chief minister.
04:16Article 163 allows discretion in a hung assembly.
04:20Article 361 grants constitutional immunity to the governor's actions.
04:27But the Supreme Court has also made its position clear.
04:32The governor must choose a leader capable of commanding majority support.
04:37But that discretion is not absolute.
04:40The floor of the House is the ultimate test of majority.
04:47In Maharashtra, in 2019, Devendra Fadnavist took oath despite uncertain numbers.
04:54The government collapsed within 80 hours.
04:57In Karnataka, in 2018, BSA D'Europa was invited first but resigned before the floor test.
05:03In Goa and Manipur in 2017, the BJP formed governments through post-poll alliances despite Congress emerging as the single
05:13largest party.
05:15The governor's refusal to immediately invite Vijay has now triggered a larger constitutional confrontation.
05:23As Tamil Nadu waits for its next government, the battle is no longer just about numbers.
05:29It is now about a larger constitutional question.
05:33Where does gubernatorial discretion end and where does the people's mandate begin?
05:37Bureau report, India Today.
05:47Well, some would suggest that there is discretion, especially in a case like this where the single largest party doesn't
05:53quite have the majority for the governor to act the way the Tamil Nadu governor has acted.
06:00Some would say, well, he might have constitutional discretion but what about constitutional morality when it is an accepted position
06:07of, you know, where the constitution is concerned that the governor invites the single largest party to try and prove
06:15majority on the floor of the House.
06:17Lots going on but latest news break coming in and we cut across to Manikam Tagore, Lok Sabha, Congress MP
06:23at the back of that.
06:24It seems that the DMK has now passed a resolution against the Congress party, suggesting that the Congress party clearly
06:31in very harsh words did not even give a courtesy call to the DMK before it broke its alliance, which
06:39has been a very longstanding alliance with the DMK and moved towards the TVK.
06:44The DMK passes this resolution condemning the Congress breaking the alliance for major resolutions passed in the DMK MLA meet
06:53recent elections have shown no majority for one party MLA is unanimously gone power to ML Stalin to examine political
07:03and administrative situation and the DMK condemns Congress betrayal and what it calls backstabbing.
07:09I want to quickly cut across to Manikam Tagore and Mr. Tagore, I'm going to ask you the question of
07:14the DMK passing the resolution against your party.
07:19But first up on what has ensued since yesterday and today, you had Vijay with the support of your five
07:26winning candidates go to the governor.
07:28The governor yesterday said, bring me the majority mark.
07:31The same sentiment echoed today, but some would suggest that this isn't constitutional morality, but the others would suggest where
07:39are the numbers?
07:40The governor is well within his right to ask for the numbers and the reason that he's given is stability
07:45for the state.
07:48Thank you, it's very clear that first I'll answer the governor's thing.
07:52We know that the governor's background is a SRSS and BJP background and we can't expect anything other than this
08:03from it.
08:03The mandate was for Vijay and for TVK.
08:07The people of Tamil Nadu has voted for change and for hope.
08:10And they had given him numbers around 108 in the house and the direction is very clear.
08:17He is the single largest party.
08:18All the states, wherever you had, before the report, you mentioned very clearly about Edurapa's case in 2018,
08:25where Edurapa was having the single largest party and Mr. Edurapa was invited to form the government
08:32and the floor test, he was allowed to, he has to prove the number in the floor only.
08:35Today, you saw many reports in, even the constitutional experts like Appel Sebal, Mukul Rottagi,
08:43Abhishek Sebi, all of them have said the same thing.
08:47And we are very clear that the governor is acting unconstitutionally.
08:52And we are very clear that the governor is under pressure from the BJP leadership.
08:58And we hope that this kind of things has to be changed.
09:02And the governor cannot hold this kind of mandate for long.
09:06And he cannot hide the mandate of the people of Tamil Nadu for long.
09:10And coming to the point of DMK, the DMK has...
09:14But you...
09:16Yeah, please.
09:19Okay, let me ask you, I'll come to that question.
09:21But Mr. Triggor, let me ask you the second part of this question.
09:23The fact is, yes, sir, you know, with what we have seen, with what is the accepted constitutional precedent,
09:30is that majority is proven in the Assembly, not in Raj Bhavan.
09:34But having said that, the mandate, sir, came on Monday, the 4th of May.
09:38Today is Thursday.
09:39Many days have passed.
09:40And it doesn't seem that TVK and the Congress is moving beyond the 112 mark.
09:46VCK, the left parties, have given multiple statements, but they haven't pled support to you.
09:51It's a catch-22.
09:52The governor can be right there.
09:54Where do you have the support, some would say?
09:56No, we have to understand that the...
09:58Now, if the governor is going to be behaving like this, as a BJP man, this is very unfortunate.
10:04If he behaved like a governor, he should have asked to prove in the House.
10:08It is only a very short term, and in the earlier presidents of that,
10:13where the chief ministers have been asked to prove in the floor.
10:17Floor is the place, not the Rajin Sabha.
10:19It's not...
10:19Rajin Bhavan is not the place to prove whatever letters or papers, and papers doesn't decide.
10:24The members elected by the House, by the people, are the people who has to decide about who has to...
10:30Who is the chief minister of Tamil Nadu?
10:32And they are denying the right of Mr. Vijay.
10:34And we all know that the BJP don't want Mr. Vijay to be chief minister.
10:39They are creating new, new hurdles, and this hurdle also, we will all the secular parties will cross this hurdle
10:47also.
10:47We are working with the secular parties, requesting them.
10:51The TVK litigations are meeting all the secular parties, inviting them to support the government, and they are requesting them.
10:58And Mr. Vijay has also wrote to them personally also.
11:01Therefore, we are on that work, and we hope that the secular parties will support a secular government in Chennai,
11:08and they will not allow one member party like BJP to get into the governance of the Mullahs.
11:17But Mr. Manikam Trigor, let's talk about one such secular party, which was one of your dearest allies, the DMK,
11:23which just 20 minutes ago has passed a resolution, as scathing as it comes.
11:27They've called your party a backstabber, opportunist, that you took no time to defect from an ally who was down
11:34and out.
11:35They stood by you in the time of need, which is the Congress party.
11:39And when the DMK was on the back foot, you left them as you were opportunistic in nature.
11:46You backstabbed them, and you did not even give them a courtesy call that you were actually leaving them.
11:51You didn't even inform them by doing what you did.
11:55It is because of the exit polls, because of the exit polls, they started to believe that all the exit
12:03polls are true,
12:04and they started to distribute Ladoos for that, and will accept the Access India exit poll, no other exit poll
12:11matched with that thing.
12:12The front is very clear that the real polls gave a different verdict.
12:17We need to understand that DMK was in government.
12:19Fifteen ministers lost.
12:22Fifteen ministers lost the election.
12:25Collaterally, all our MLAs also lost.
12:27We were 17 MLAs.
12:28We are reduced to five now.
12:30We were not because of our mistakes.
12:33The governance, people have defeated the governance of DMK.
12:37And we don't use these kind of words like backstabbing and others.
12:41Whenever DMK is defeated by the people, they want to put the blame on Congress.
12:452011 also, when they were defeated by the people of Tamil Nadu, they put the same thing, the same words,
12:51same language.
12:51Whenever they are defeated, they are using this pattern, it's a pattern, it is frustration, we can say, because only,
12:59not even 72 hours has passed, because they are not able to come to the terms that they have been
13:04defeated by the people of Tamil Nadu and they had given, for us, they had given, people have given a
13:09mandate for another secular formation.
13:39Let me complete it.
13:41We need to understand that Congress President Kargei Saab has called the leader of the Lok Soba, leader of DMK,
13:48and conveyed our decision.
13:50It is unfortunate that they are saying like this.
13:52They want all the MLAs to come, who are elected MLAs, to come and thank them.
13:56That, when they go, it doesn't look nice to the morality of the people, that we go and thank them,
14:03and then you go to support the next day to Mr. Vijay.
14:07That doesn't look nice.
14:09We are, as a political party, we are, why we are given, why this much seats is given in Tamil
14:14Nadu for Congress?
14:16They don't give seats to Trinambul Congress or Ahmad be here.
14:19Are they still a part of the India Alliance?
14:23Because it doesn't seem they are anymore.
14:25Let me complete this, this thing.
14:28Let me complete it clearly.
14:29We want a secular government in Tamil Nadu.
14:32Therefore, secular government, Mr. Vijay has defeated BJP and those parties in NDA in Tirparam Gondram.
14:40You had covered Tirparam Gondram.
14:41In Tirparam Gondram seat, where the BJP, Mr. Prime Minister Modi also visited Tirparam Gondram.
14:47And they asked the thing that they will light the lamp in some, the controversial place.
14:52But people of Tirparam Gondram rejected the EDMK and the EDMK ML has gone to the third place.
14:57TVK has won.
14:58The message is very clear.
15:00Secular formation is needed.
15:02And we are for that secular formation.
15:04We are working for that secular formation.
15:06Okay.
15:06The EDMK may be defeated.
15:07They may be frustrated now.
15:08They may be tamed.
15:09But we can't say about it because they are only governing the Gauk state.
15:13So you are saying two things.
15:15So two things before I let you go, Mr. Manikam Tagore.
15:18So DMK no longer than a part of the India alliance.
15:21And 2029 then, if you are going to stay with the TVK, and if this alliance actually makes
15:26through and you get the other numbers, then 2029 your alliance is with TVK and not DMK then.
15:33You've let go for the DMK for good.
15:35That's what it seems like.
15:37We have to understand that the opposition grouping in Delhi is a different pattern.
15:42There are states where secular parties fight each other.
15:45In left, with the communist parties, we fight in Kerala, neighboring Kerala.
15:49In Bengal, we fight with Thirnambul.
15:51In Amadmi, in Delhi.
15:53In Punjab, we fight with Amadmi.
15:54There are many combinations in here.
15:56It is an opposition unity, opposition arrangement in Delhi, where on issue-based we work together
16:02against BJP.
16:04Let us be very clear that here Congress party's alliance with the TVK will in parliament also.
16:10We have sealed it.
16:11And we have announced it in our...
16:12Mr. Manekam Tagore, last question, sir.
16:17How far-fetched do you think are talks of the AI DMK and the DMK coming together?
16:23Some would suggest that's the reason why, till now, the VCK and the left parties haven't
16:27left the DMK, because they still hope that it could actually happen.
16:30The most unbelievable combination could come together.
16:33There are talks still on.
16:34The TVK chief just said that there are talks still on.
16:37We need to understand that all of them are trying to stop Mr. Vijay.
16:43All of them, all those forces who want to stop Mr. Vijay to become the chief minister,
16:51that won't happen.
16:52Anything, those people, those rumors which are being floated in Chennai is being designed
17:00that they are all, there are forces who are behind it, BJP is also behind it, to stop
17:05Mr. Vijay from being the chief minister.
17:07People has given the mandate for Vijay, and we stand by with the mandate, and we support
17:13Mr. Vijay in this effort.
17:15Okay.
17:18Good luck, sir.
17:18Thank you for taking the time out and joining us.
17:20Appreciate it, Mr. Manikam Tagore, in making the point of your party clear.
17:24I want to immediately cut across to Mr. PDT Achari, constitutional expert, sir.
17:28Thank you and appreciate your patience.
17:30Sometimes you get breaking news and you need to, you know, cut across to a guest.
17:34Mr. PDT Achari, would you make clear on what we are witnessing right now in Tamil Nadu?
17:39Because some would think that it's an established constitution position or an accepted constitutional
17:47position that the governor always invites the single largest party to come out and at least
17:53on the floor of the assembly test whether it has the numbers or not.
18:01Well, you see, I must say that as a general proposition, the strength of a government,
18:14the majority of the government should be tested on the floor of the house.
18:19There cannot be any difference of opinion on that.
18:22But here is a situation where no party has got a majority.
18:27Therefore, here, the governor has to exercise his discretion.
18:32Governor is a constitutional authority and he can exercise his discretion
18:40in accordance with the constitutional norms.
18:43And his primary duty is to ensure that a stable government is installed in the state of Tamil Nadu.
18:52So, that is his primary constitutional duty.
18:57Now, how will you do that?
18:59Here, no party has majority.
19:02Therefore, he has to exercise his discretion in favor of a party,
19:07the largest party, single largest party, or a combination of parties.
19:12Now, there are, in this context, I must say that there are certain guidelines issued by the Supreme Court.
19:19And earlier, the Surkaria Commission had suggested these guidelines.
19:24According to which, in such a situation, the governor has to look for a pre-poll alliance.
19:30And if there is no pre-poll alliance, then he has to look at a post-poll alliance.
19:37And if that, too, is not there, then, of course, he has to see the single largest party,
19:44I mean, whether they can form a government.
19:49Here, this TVK, I think, has formed an alliance.
19:53It's not…
19:53Of course, it is single largest party, but it has formed an alliance.
19:56Of course, it has got the support of the Congress party,
19:58and perhaps it is trying to get the support of other parties.
20:01A post-poll alliance, sir, with the Congress.
20:04Well, you know, the point is that the governor…
20:07Yes.
20:08So, they have approached the governor a second time, I am told that,
20:14and the governor has rejected it,
20:15and the governor is insisting on having the majority number.
20:22Now, it is true that the majority of a government has to be proved on the floor of the House,
20:28but here is a question of appointing the chief minister first.
20:32Now, how will he appoint?
20:34On what basis?
20:35Governor has to certainly facilitate the formation of a government,
20:40and then it is the job of the political parties to create a majority.
20:46Now, the government cannot exist without a majority,
20:50although many people say that minority governments have existed in this country,
20:55there is nothing unusual about it and all that,
20:57but when a constitutional authority sits down to decide this issue one way or the other,
21:03then he has to take into account the question whether they have the majority.
21:12Now, there were, of course, different situations,
21:15and in different situations, the governors have taken different decisions.
21:19In fact, even at the center also, on certain occasions, different decisions were taken.
21:26I can just quote the example of 1996 Vajpayee government.
21:31Vajpayee, Aral Bihari Vajpayee, did not have the majority in 1996,
21:38and then Shankaradhyar Sharma appointed him as a prime minister and asked him to form the,
21:43prove the majority in the Lok Sabha,
21:47which, of course, he formed the government,
21:50it lasted for 13 days, and after that, it went out of office.
21:53Failed.
21:53So, but in 1998, again,
21:56Mr. Adal Bihari Vajpayee approached the governor,
22:00the president, Mr. K. R. Narayanan,
22:02but K. R. Narayanan insisted on seeing the support letters given by the allies,
22:09and he sent him back and asked him to bring the letters of support given by other political parties,
22:17and only after Mr. Narayanan satisfied himself about the number,
22:23he allowed Vajpayee to form the government,
22:25and, you know, that is how it has happened.
22:28So, there are different actions taken by the heads of the state on different occasions.
22:36There are precedents both ways that justify what the governor did,
22:41and some that seem to suggest that there is constitutional morality.
22:45So, that's what you're saying, sir.
22:50Yeah, of course, as I said...
22:52Mr. Achari, so that is what you're saying, right?
22:54Correct, that there are instances both ways.
22:57Government is installed and facilitate the formation of a government.
23:03That is what I'm saying.
23:05Governors should facilitate the formation of a government.
23:07Of course, governor cannot have a situation where there is no government possible.
23:11That will be a very unfortunate kind of situation,
23:15but, therefore, it is the duty of the governor to facilitate the formation of a government,
23:22and then, if you consider that,
23:27then, of course, there is a case where the single largest party or a combination of parties,
23:33although they don't have the requisite number at the moment...
23:35Should be invited.
23:36If they are closer to the majority mark...
23:39But they should be invited.
23:39They can be invited, and there won't be...
23:44The governor will not be committing any unconstitutional act if he does that.
23:53Right, sir.
23:54Thank you, Mr. Achari, and for giving us your perspective.
23:57Very important, very knowledgeable.
23:58For a lot of us, you know, it's a conundrum that was there,
24:03that there is so much precedent, and is this constitutionally unethical?
24:08You've solved that for us.
24:10I want to quickly cut across to Lata Srinivas before we get into a break,
24:13and we'll go back to her as well then.
24:14But, Lata, how are you looking at the developments that have taken place in the last 24 hours?
24:20In the last one hour, one such dramatic development as well,
24:22you have the VCK chief, who, after meeting M.K. Stalin and the DMK,
24:29has come out and actually said that, yeah, AIDMK and DMK are speaking.
24:35You know, Preeti, thanks for having me.
24:38This entire election, I keep comparing it to a movie.
24:42There are so many changes and, you know, twists and turns.
24:46We don't know what's happening.
24:47Every hour, there's a new update.
24:50And it's unbelievable, you know, when the news of the DMK and the AIDMK
24:54actually forming an alliance, you know, came out yesterday.
24:57And there was a lot of talk of journalists, you know, having made up this story.
25:02And today, it's actually been proved that this is, in fact, true,
25:06that the AIDMK and the DMK are in talks, and anything can happen tomorrow.
25:10But honestly, I think constitutionally, Vijay and TBK have won, you know,
25:16they are the largest party, and he deserves the right to form the government.
25:21If the government falls, then I think you can look at any other option.
25:25But I don't think it's right to take this away from him,
25:27considering that this is a people's mandate.
25:29People have voted for him, and he has 108 seats.
25:33Why is there so much of confusion?
25:35I mean, it's very, very unfortunate.
25:37I think he himself is startled because he thought it would be a cakewalk,
25:42I presume, you know, given that he's got 108 seats.
25:46But I think now he's beginning to see what politics is all about,
25:50and this is reality.
25:51And I think there are a lot of challenges ahead for him.
25:58A lot of challenges ahead for him.
26:01Some would suggest there is constitutional discretion and immunity,
26:06which is allotted and given to the constitutional post of governor.
26:12Then some would suggest there's also constitutional morality and past precedent.
26:15We leave it at that where the debate, whether this was constitutionally ethical
26:20to not allow Vijay a floor test in the Assembly
26:25or an opportunity to prove his majority on the floor of the House,
26:29the governor has decided he wants to see the numbers on paper
26:33before he even allows Vijay to take oath.
26:38Welcome back.
26:39You're watching To The Point.
26:40Let's cut across to the other big conspiracy theory in all of this, viewers.
26:45Some would say not a conspiracy theory.
26:47Political watchers are interpreting the optics of the last couple of days,
26:53the high-pressure stalling of Vijay to not allow him to take oath
26:58is what most, some political watchers, political parties interpreting
27:03that it is not just about 2026 elections in Tamil Nadu.
27:08It's the larger picture.
27:09It's about 2029 general elections on how the alliances will form in that election,
27:15could very well be decided on how they form in this election.
27:36Two years after its launch, TVK has pulled off a political coup in Tamil Nadu.
27:42Vijay's party is now the single largest force in the state.
27:45But with 108 seats, it still falls short of majority.
27:51And that's where the 2029 game begins.
27:54Vijay's rise is no longer just about forming a government in 2026.
27:59It is already reshaping alliance politics for 2029.
28:03The Congress has extended support to TVK, not just for government formation,
28:08but even for the future Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha elections.
28:12A huge signal from a party that has stood with the DMK for decades.
28:19The calculation is simple.
28:21Vijay brings massive popularity, youth connect,
28:24and a loyal fan army that could reshape the opposition space in 2029.
28:29And Congress isn't alone.
28:32VCK and CPI are also considering support to TVK,
28:36with parties keen to be on Vijay's side ahead of the next national polls.
28:41Then comes the AIA-DMK twist.
28:43As TVK tries to prove majority,
28:46over 25 AIA-DMK rebels have reportedly gone wrong,
28:50pushing the party to support Vijay or risk a split.
28:53Because the numbers tell the story.
28:56With Congress support alone,
28:58TVK still remains short of a comfortable majority,
29:01making the government vulnerable,
29:03the concern flagged by the governor.
29:05But if AIA-DMK joins hands with TVK,
29:09the number becomes stable overnight.
29:11Which raises the big political question.
29:14Is the governor's tough stand also aimed at preventing
29:17a Congress-TVK axis ahead of 2029?
29:21Vijay has already positioned BJP as his ideological rival,
29:25and DMK as his direct political opponent in Tamil Nadu.
29:29And with the governor face-off,
29:30helping build an image of a leader refusing to bow under pressure,
29:34the first political narrative of the Talapati era
29:37may already be taking shape.
29:39What began as a government formation battle
29:42is quickly turning into a high-stakes fight
29:45over who will lead Tamil Nadu's opposition politics in 2029.
29:50Bureau Report, India Today.
29:59Let's cut across to the latest news break coming in.
30:02The BJP's Vice President, Khushbu Sundar,
30:04has now come out and suggested in midst of this high drama
30:08that as a citizen of Tamil Nadu state,
30:10when people have chosen their CM, he should lead.
30:13Governor asked Vijay to prove majority first.
30:16Governor has practically said no numbers, no oath.
30:19But strangely, and what at least TVK voters would welcome,
30:25the BJP, Tamil Nadu, Vice Chief, has come out and practically stated
30:28if the people have chosen, allow him to lead.
30:32But nonetheless, let's go back to our original story
30:34that we've been tracking,
30:36that is this a lot to do with 2029,
30:39then the optics that you see right now playing out
30:43where Tamil Nadu is concerned,
30:46where certain political watchers,
30:48especially the Congress, believes
30:50that this is to halt and stop
30:54the TVK Congress access before 2029 elections.
30:58Rajdeep Sardisai, our consulting editor, joins us.
31:01Suman C. Raman also continues to be with me,
31:03as well as Lata Srinivasan.
31:05Rajdeep, what are you making
31:07of all the talk of this desperation,
31:11you know, of stalling Vijay from taking oath
31:13has more to do with 2029,
31:15less to do with 2026,
31:17and who the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu will be?
31:19Look, I think it's got to do with both.
31:23Let me say at the very outset,
31:24remember, this is a Congress party, for example,
31:28which has not been in power in Tamil Nadu
31:30going back to 1971.
31:31That's a long time ago.
31:32They've supported various Dravidian parties
31:36at different times,
31:37but not actually been in a Tamil Nadu cabinet
31:40for more than 50 years.
31:41So there's that yearning to share power.
31:44One of their concerns with,
31:46aligning with the DMK,
31:47even before the election,
31:48was that the DMK was so much the big brother
31:51that they gave absolutely no space to the Congress.
31:54So there is a section of the Congress
31:56which believes that unless we are in power,
31:58how do we galvanize
32:00or keep motivating our cadres
32:02by at least ensuring
32:03some of the loaves and fishes of office?
32:05Then you come to 2029,
32:08because the belief now is
32:10that if Vijay has become this powerful force,
32:13then it's best to ally with a powerful force
32:16in a state that has 39 Lok Sabha seats on offer.
32:19And many opposition leaders today believe,
32:22particularly after what's happened in West Bengal,
32:24that 2029 is make or break.
32:26If the BJB gets two-thirds majority in 2029,
32:29then it's game, set and match for the entire opposition.
32:32So yes, there is that aspect as well,
32:35which is being factored into
32:36by the Congress party in particular.
32:39But the initial aim is to try and at least get a toehold
32:43in government formation in Tamil Nadu,
32:47because the fear they have
32:48is that if they don't do it,
32:50the BJP will use the AI-DMK
32:52to then set the terms of Tamil Nadu politics.
32:57And that's the fear
32:58that a section of the Congress have,
33:00which is why they went so quickly
33:02to the governor yesterday
33:04or went to Vijay yesterday
33:05to offer him the letter of support.
33:08Very unusual for the Congress
33:09to actually start taking decisions
33:11in such haste.
33:16Rajdeep, this also comes with a wager then,
33:19that the Congress has decided
33:20to put their eggs in the TVK basket,
33:22not just where 26 is concerned.
33:25Let's just go back an hour ago
33:26where the DMK has passed a resolution
33:29practically calling the Congress backstabbers
33:32who didn't stand by them in their hour of need
33:34while the DMK has always stood by the Congress
33:38and didn't even accord them a courtesy call.
33:40So, does that mean that the DMK
33:43is now out of the India alliance
33:44where national politics is concerned?
33:47Look, the way the India alliance
33:50has been structured,
33:51people seem to walk in and out very freely.
33:53Just think about it.
33:55Nitish Kumar was the one who
33:56was the original driver of the India alliance.
34:00He walked out and went and joined hands
34:02with the BJP before the general elections.
34:05You now have a scenario, therefore,
34:07where the DMK, yes, as of today,
34:09perhaps you could argue
34:10is not going to be part
34:12of a national India alliance.
34:13But until the DMK has some other options,
34:17who knows what happens in 2029?
34:19And I think that's what the Congress is gambling on.
34:22This is a gamble they've taken.
34:23Now that the BJP has hitched its bandwagon
34:25to AI-DMK,
34:27does the BJP dump the AI-DMK
34:29and go with the DMK?
34:31History suggests that the Dravidian parties,
34:34particularly in Lok Sabha elections,
34:35need the support of one of the national parties.
34:38So the Congress is gambling on the fact,
34:41much like the left, for example,
34:43in Kerala, whom they fought in that election,
34:46but is still part of the national alliance.
34:48Will that same practice continue
34:50when it comes to 2029 and the general elections?
34:55The DMK is obviously at the moment angry
34:58and perhaps you could argue legitimately so
35:01that because they went into the elections together.
35:03But we don't know in this rapidly fluid situation
35:08what tomorrow brings.
35:09We don't even know how long a Vijay Congress
35:12and possibly the smaller parties,
35:14if at all they come together,
35:15what kind of a stable government
35:17will they be able to put together?
35:19Will the AI-DMK break?
35:20There are lots of questions in Tamil Nadu
35:23which remain unanswered.
35:24And I think for now,
35:26everyone is looking at the short term
35:27of just seeing how do you form a government
35:30after such a hotly contested election
35:33because the last thing any of these parties want
35:36is to go in for another election
35:38six to 12 months from now.
35:43Well, thank you, Rajdeep, for joining us
35:46and giving us your two bits there.
35:48Well, all of this, of course, viewers,
35:50rides on the fact that the TVK and the Congress
35:53can actually cobble up the numbers.
35:55To remind you, there are still six short
35:58and the governor's having it no other way.
36:00They need to put 118 signatures down pat on that letter
36:03that next time Vijay walks inside the Raj Bhavan
36:07or the Lok Bhavan here.
36:07I want to cut across to Sumansi Raman.
36:09Sumansi Raman, with a view on 2029,
36:13how do you see things pan out right now?
36:15A lot of what is happening right now,
36:18some would suggest, can be explained
36:20if you factor in 2029.
36:24Okay.
36:24So, Preeti, I think there are two, three points here.
36:28One is the BJP was not at all happy
36:31with Vijay seeking the support of the Congress.
36:33Now, if Vijay had sought the support of the AI-DMK,
36:37who is part of the NDA,
36:40he would probably already have been sworn in this morning
36:42as Chief Minister.
36:44Now, the second point,
36:45which I think is a bigger story that is being missed,
36:48is the back-channel talks happening
36:50between the DMK and the AI-DMK,
36:53which I don't know,
36:55which seems not to have caught your attention
36:57to the extent it would have.
36:59The DMK an hour ago has passed a resolution
37:02and that resolution says
37:04that all efforts must be made
37:06to prevent non-Dravidian parties from coming to power.
37:09They have authorized the party chief, Mr. Stalin,
37:12to take any decision that may be deemed necessary.
37:17The party spokesperson was then asked,
37:19is there an alliance going on between...
37:21So, with what you are saying is
37:24that AI-DMK and DMK is coming together,
37:27what we thought was improbable and unthinkable
37:29and a plant till yesterday,
37:31today could be a reality.
37:32Preeti, I am not saying it.
37:35This is...
37:35Talks are happening.
37:37Period.
37:38Nobody is denying it.
37:39The DMK is not denying it.
37:41AI-DMK is not denying it.
37:42The media has put it out
37:43and they suddenly, all of a sudden,
37:46Mr. TK Zilangovan is asked the question,
37:50is there an alliance going on?
37:52And what is the reply?
37:53We will accept whatever our leader decides.
37:56Is that the reply to deny
37:58that any such talks are going on?
38:00Is that the way they would answer the question
38:02if nothing was happening?
38:04So, let's be very clear.
38:06There are talks going on as we speak.
38:10There have been talks going on
38:12for more than a day now, right?
38:15And the talk is that
38:17the AI-DMK would...
38:19Mr. Yadapadi Padani Swami
38:20would take the oath as Chief Minister
38:23with Mr. Udayaniti Stalin as a Deputy CM
38:26and the DMK and the AI-DMK doing it together.
38:31Now, this sounds insane.
38:33If you had asked me this question two days back,
38:36I would have said...
38:36Why would DMK with numbers
38:39more than the AI-DMK
38:41take the Deputy CM's chair?
38:43Just hypothetical conversation.
38:46Yeah, it's not so hypothetical.
38:48I think in another 24 hours,
38:50we'll know how hypothetical this is.
38:52But let's look at the point.
38:54Both the parties now fear
38:56that if Vijay is given an opportunity
39:00and he takes the opportunity
39:02and gives a good government,
39:04then it puts both of them at serious risk.
39:07In particular, it puts Mr. Udayaniti Stalin
39:09at very serious risk
39:10because he and Mr. Vijay are contemporaries.
39:12They are both more or less the same age.
39:14So, that is a problem for the DMK.
39:17For the AI-DMK,
39:18they need to stay politically relevant.
39:20So, either they are part of a TVK government
39:23or they are part of some government
39:25supported by DMK,
39:27supported by somebody else
39:28because they have been out of power for five years.
39:30So, there is a compulsion
39:32on both sides to come together,
39:35which is why you have this gyan going on
39:37that the state needs to have stability.
39:40We need to come together
39:41to give a stable government.
39:43When they start talking in those terms,
39:44it means that they're going to make
39:46some kind of a dirty compromise.
39:47I think by tomorrow, by this time,
39:50we will have greater clarity
39:52on what's going on.
39:53But keep your eye on that development
39:56as much tomorrow,
39:57the Communist Party and the VCK.
39:59Look, Preeti, answer this one question for me.
40:02Communist Party and VCK
40:03have been invited by the TVK
40:06to support Vijay.
40:07Right?
40:08And who do they go and meet today?
40:10True.
40:10Why aren't they coming out?
40:12Yeah.
40:13I mean,
40:13would you go and...
40:14You're going to come out...
40:16Fair point.
40:16Fair point.
40:17You're going to meet this year.
40:18Very interesting.
40:21Subhanci Raman,
40:21very interesting.
40:22Fair point.
40:23We're going to come back to you tomorrow on this.
40:24Let's see what...
40:26Let's see what happens by tomorrow.
40:28No, I hear you.
40:29I hear you till yesterday,
40:31what we thought was improbable,
40:32unthinkable,
40:33a plant pressure tactics
40:34could very well,
40:35you know,
40:36be a serious reality,
40:38at least with what is being
40:40speculated as of now.
40:41Lata Srinivasan,
40:41how much do you agree with this?
40:43I absolutely agree with what
40:45Sumanth has been saying.
40:46I have, in fact,
40:47been tweeting about it as well
40:48since yesterday,
40:49saying that talks are on
40:51between the DMK and ADMK.
40:53And I think in politics,
40:55anything can happen.
40:56So we have to wait till tomorrow
40:57to see the latest developments.
41:00True.
41:02All right.
41:03Well, anything can happen.
41:04I thank both of you,
41:05Sumanci Raman.
41:06You know,
41:08I'm sure you'll join me
41:10on my show tomorrow
41:10and let's see how things pan out.
41:12But thank you both for joining us
41:14as well as Rajdeep.
41:15I want to quickly end
41:15with breaking news.
41:16Mamata Banuji is no longer
41:17the Chief Minister of West Bengal.
41:20Her government has been dismissed.
41:21She did not step down
41:23as is protocol and precedence
41:26where the Chief Minister
41:28that is voted out
41:29goes and tenders in
41:31his or her resignation
41:33to the governor.
41:34She didn't do so.
41:35She said that this was an election
41:36which was stolen.
41:37Today was the day,
41:38the 7th of May,
41:39where the term
41:41and the tenure
41:41of her government
41:42was getting over
41:43and she has now
41:44under constitutional provisions
41:47been dismissed
41:48by the governor.
41:50Her cabinet
41:51and Mamata Banuji
41:52have been dismissed.
41:53No longer
41:54the Chief Minister
41:55of West Bengal.
41:57He's.
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