- 5 weeks ago
The big talking point of this episode of Democratic Newsroom is India's foreign policy approach to the West Asia war.
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00:21Good evening and welcome to yet another edition of the Democratic Newsroom.
00:25We come to you once again where the West Asia war is raging.
00:29Lots has been spoken, debated on India's foreign policy at this juncture.
00:36Is it working? Is it failing? Is it neutral? Where do we stand?
00:39Well, we've got a band of editors to debate it.
00:42Geeta Mohan, Sandeep Unithan, Gaurav Savant, Rajdeep Sardasai.
00:45Let's open the Democratic Newsroom with Rajdeep Sardasai.
00:48What are your views, Rajdeep?
00:49On what?
00:51Is India's foreign policy working at this juncture?
00:53Multi-alignment is what we are calling it.
00:55Yes, I think it is. I mean, let's be clear.
00:57I was on the Democratic Newsroom three weeks ago and I made the point at that time,
01:03which is interesting that you sort of reframed it now, because three weeks ago I said,
01:07I thought the fact that the prime minister went to Israel even as war clouds were gathering,
01:12the fact that we did not condole Ali Khamenei's death, the supreme leader for about four days,
01:19the fact that when a U.S. torpedo hit an Iranian ship, there was an element of near silence in
01:26the
01:26Indian establishment, the fact that when 160 plus children were killed in Iran, we didn't seem to
01:32react immediately. I thought in the first week there was a sense that we were closely being
01:36identified with the Israel-U.S. axis. From there, I think we have pivoted because we've realized that
01:43this is a long-drawn-out war at the moment and it is in India's best national interest not to
01:48be seen
01:49to be overtly taking a side. And to that extent, I think the pivot has taken place and that pivot
01:56has, in my view, given us some rewards in terms of the fact that at least we can have dialogue
02:02now
02:02with all the principal stakeholders without that sense of mistrust that appeared to exist when this
02:09war started. And the sheer fact that we've been able to get in ships through at a time where many
02:13countries haven't been able to get their ships through. Gaurav? So, I don't think India ever took
02:18a side. It may have been an impression in some people's minds that India took a side. India was
02:22always multi-aligned as far as the situation is concerned. Even when you talk of the Iranian ship,
02:29Iran sought India's assistance and India gave assistance. Media may not have known it or some in
02:34media may not have known it. But the fact remains, India gave access to the ships, the sailors were in
02:39India and the sailors were flown back from India. So, those were subsequent.
02:43It was subsequent in the chronology. There was no statement initially when the Iranian ship was
02:50topied on. Permit me to complete my piece. Because there was no information in public domain does not
02:55mean India was aligned to one side and then pivoted to the other side. India was always in touch with
03:00everybody. So, external affairs minister may not tweet everything in public domain. I've just spoken
03:06to this and I've just done that. But that does not mean it's not happening, Rajdeep. Point one.
03:10Point two, India and Iran remain very strong as friends. Iran called India our friend India,
03:18right? Iran wanted medicines. India quickly provided medicines. They thanked India for it.
03:23Did India say that, no, no, we are aligned to Israel? That may have been a perception in some
03:28people's mind that we are aligned to Israel. We are multi-aligned. We will see India's best
03:33interest is what the government says and India's... You should clear what Gaurav Savan said three
03:37weeks ago on this very democratic newsroom. Yes. He was very clear that there was an element
03:42that the Iranians in a way... That's it. We need to decide this. Yeah. Gaurav Savan said before
03:46change of these demands that we stand up with Israel, America, you have turned, you have
03:52also pivoted along the... No, I have not. I have always said India will look after India's
03:56national interests. But I'm glad you can... India's national interests have shifted. No, India's
03:59national interests are always multi-aligned. I have said that multi-aligned... Okay, one second,
04:04one second. Rajdeep, you have pivoted in your views of what it was the last time around.
04:11No, no. You thought it didn't... No, no. I have said India's foreign policy in the first
04:18week was the sense that one got was had created an element of mistrust with Tehran. India has
04:24worked over time. No, no. To say that's your view, India has worked over time to ensure
04:30that that trust deficit is reduced. That's all I'm saying. You know, I'm going to give Geeta
04:33foreign affairs editor the final word and this. But let that Sandeep come in and Geeta, I'm
04:37going to come right back to you. So, Sandeep... But, you know, Preeti, the fact is that India's
04:42policy has been pretty... You know, it's been consistent. And it's not just this government,
04:47it's been through for decades. If you look at it, we've always held multi-alignment in high
04:53stead. And I'm going back to that moment of 2003, which I think is one of the greatest
04:58achievements of Indian foreign policy when India, despite being under so much of pressure,
05:02did not send troops to Iraq. I mean, that is one of India's biggest successes diplomatically
05:08in the 21st century. And now, here we are talking to both sides. We're talking to Trump, we're
05:14talking to the Iranians, we're talking to the Israelis. So, that's our policy of multi-alignment
05:19and it's held us in good stead.
05:20Geeta?
05:21Well, I think that, you know, the room for... The elbow room that India has because of the
05:28multi-alignment is the reason why it took a side in a way, but had the room to go back
05:36and rearrange, realign itself or its policy in how it is engaging. I say this is because
05:43we were in Tehran when Prime Minister Modi was in Israel. And I put the question to Foreign
05:49Minister Raak Chippriti and he said we are disappointed. That at a time when, you know,
05:55when America and Israel are threatening us with war, why is the Indian Premier there?
06:01So, they were disappointed. I'm just saying what... This is on the record. And then you
06:07come back to what happened through the war. And then I spoke with the spokesperson on the
06:14day that Prime Minister had spoken with Trump. And I asked him for a reaction and he said,
06:20well... Which was yesterday. Which was yesterday. The first time since the war.
06:23Two days ago. Yeah. And he said, well, any world leader who is speaking to Trump should
06:29first, instead of talking about, you know, we want this and we want that, tell the man
06:34to stop the war. So, they are not absolutely okay with maybe the positions that were taken.
06:41It was a difficult time. Look, all the initial statements that came from Iran, maybe they
06:46were dialing in. Maybe there were conversations that were happening. But they were not happy
06:50with the situation where an Iranian ship was sunk by Americans in India's backyard, in the
06:57Indian Ocean. Not Indian waters. Not Indian territories.
07:00International waters, but coming back from an Indian exercise.
07:02But in our backyard. And it was a friendly visit to India. So, they weren't happy about it.
07:07And yes, Prime Minister Modi and Dr. Jaishankar both spoke with their counterparts, but not
07:14counterparts, like with the president and technically counterparts, and with the foreign minister. But
07:21that was a few days later. So, yes, there was some pivoting, some realignment, but the fact...
07:27But that's the nature of diplomacy. But really, the fact that India is multi-aligned is the reason why we
07:32have
07:32the elbow room to move as we want to. Many countries don't have that option. India has it,
07:39because like Sandy said, historically, we have proven to take decisions that serve our interest. And
07:45maybe over here, we were looking at our interest. It was not in our interest to rile Iran when we
07:51have
07:51ships on the other side of the Strait of Hong Kong.
07:54You know, and Rajdeep, let me come back to you, because there is an element of what Geeta says to
07:58rile up
07:59any of these countries. It happened. Iran wasn't happy with us in the beginning. But America also
08:05wasn't very happy, because there was a certain element where they possibly would have wanted us
08:09to join the mission of, you know, to open the Strait of Hormuz. Yet, we have held ground.
08:15I don't think America...
08:17Where we've asked for diplomacy and dialogue.
08:18You know, I don't think... Look, the American foreign policy under Donald Trump has been marked by
08:24unilateralism. I mean, decisions are taken by Donald Trump, not by any process of consultation,
08:29even this war, has not even consulted his European allies. Why are the European allies...
08:34Unilateralism...
08:34Why are his NATO allies...
08:37I don't think we are... You know, we can be the ones who are going to try and help
08:41reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The... His first dialing in was to his European NATO allies,
08:46all of whom put their hands up and said we're not part of this.
08:48And then call China for help. You know, so let's be very clear. You're dealing with a...
08:53I can't even use the word maverick, because he's not that. He's just a unilateralist.
09:00Dare I say, obsessed with himself.
09:04Ego centrist.
09:04Yeah. So, I mean, in... When you're dealing with someone like that in the White House,
09:08you have to be very careful. And I'm therefore not going to hold India response. You can't rile
09:13up a Donald Trump because you don't know how he will react next. We've already seen with the trade
09:16talks. One day, you know, you appear... The trade talks appear on track. Next day, you have new demands
09:23being put in by the United States. So, I don't... I don't think we can... That's not for New Delhi
09:27to address.
09:27That's Washington's problem. Yeah.
09:29I mean, this is a war which has been created and conducted by Washington. We are only getting the...
09:35the sort of blowback of what the US and Israel have done. That's why I thought,
09:41to just take what Geeta said, we should have been very careful about the timing of that visit. I
09:46interviewed Shiv Shankar Menon, former NSA, and he had a good point. He said, even if you wanted to go
09:51to Israel at that time for a defense deal, send a secretary or send some other minister. When the
09:56Prime Minister goes at that moment, I think it sends and Geeta is saying it, on record,
10:00the Iranian said, that's not what we expected. Sandeep, you want to come in?
10:02No, but why should we work... Our life is not to make Iran happy. Our life is to make Indians
10:07happy
10:08and Indian interests supreme. Why can't we appreciate the fact that we are working as a nation
10:13to serve Indian interests first? So, who's...
10:16Indian interests... So, did it serve India's interest to have those optics of the Prime Minister
10:21go to... Well, so let us see... Did it serve India's interest?
10:24You know, taste of putting lies in its eating and what is happening? Our ships are coming from Iran
10:28and we are getting defense technology or whatever... That would have come even if...
10:31Even if a secretary would have gone. But would it be the same if a secretary had gone?
10:35Are you saying a secretary is the same as the Prime Minister of the country? No, she'd not have...
10:46When he went to the Iranian embassy and it was held as... It's not somebody small.
10:53That the Foreign Secretary did go and sign the condolence book and it was looked as
10:56Indian government signing the condolence book. Similar with what Geeta is saying.
11:00Sure. The similar it could have happened.
11:01It's just a deal. Again, my point is... It's just a deal.
11:04Look, you sent Rajnath Singh to sign the book when Begum Zia passed away.
11:10And you sent the Foreign Secretary. And you sent the Foreign Secretary.
11:12These are optics. I'm not... Look, we have to...
11:14Geeta ships are coming.
11:17Geeta ships are coming as if...
11:20Pakistan's ships are also coming.
11:21Chinese ships are coming.
11:22Chinese ships are coming.
11:23Okay, one by one.
11:24And that just shows the importance of...
11:27It's a very small circle of friends that Iran has.
11:31It's a very small circle of friends.
11:32It's a very small circle of friends that Iran has.
11:35That's a good point.
11:35And we are part of them.
11:37It's Russia. It's China.
11:39But China and Russia are allies.
11:40We are friends. There's a difference.
11:42We're friends. Yeah.
11:42And our ships are being let through.
11:47And that's a very big thing.
11:48And that's the strength of our foreign policy.
11:50We are aligned with Russia and with Ukraine.
11:53We can talk to both of them.
11:54Our foreign policy is...
11:55You know, one of the biggest things to have come out of India in the last couple of decades
11:59is the IMEC.
12:00India, Middle East, Europe Economic Corridor.
12:03That was pushed out here in 2023.
12:06What happened in Gaza, what happened in Israel, sabotaged the IMEC.
12:10But we were, at the same time, we were pursuing the INSTC.
12:13The India, Iran, Russia, Europe Corridor.
12:16North-South Corridor.
12:17That tells you about Indian diplomacy in a nutshell.
12:20We are not taking sides.
12:22We're looking at both these corridors as serving India's interests.
12:25The one through Iran, if that happens.
12:27And the one through Saudi Arabia, UAE and, of course, Israel.
12:31And that's the reason that the Prime Minister went there.
12:33He believes that this is the one corridor that is going to revive India's economy.
12:39Take it to new heights.
12:40No, of course, Sandeep.
12:42Of course, you know, the importance of India-Israel relations is not amiss.
12:48It's just the timing.
12:50Yeah, exactly.
12:50When Trump is threatening war and Israel is threatening war, the timing, the optics of it.
12:57We are not saying, of course, Israel is an important defense partner.
13:00Absolutely.
13:01But right then, that moment, and which is why sitting in Tehran, we understood the gravity of that visit.
13:07I think, you know, Gita, we're looking at it with the wisdom of hindsight.
13:10The fact that there were two days later that no operations began, less than 24 hours, from that operations beginning.
13:18How were we to know at that point?
13:20And this, as the Israeli ambassador clarified, was that the Prime Minister didn't know that.
13:25Prime Minister Modi did not know that they were going to go to war.
13:27No, but they were calling for it.
13:29He has to officially say that.
13:29He can't say anything else.
13:31Let's be very clear.
13:32Every indication from the American news that is coming out was that this was in the making.
13:38This was in the making.
13:39There was, there was every, it may not happen, happened two days.
13:42It could have happened a week later.
13:43Look, I think Gita is right.
13:44No one is saying that India's relationship with Israel should be in any way hostage to India's equation with Iran.
13:53But you continue to look at it through the prism of Iran.
13:55No, no, because at the moment, you're in a conflict situation.
13:58You're in a conflict situation.
14:01You have to naturally balance various interests.
14:04For a while, I think we perhaps were seen to have veered to the other side,
14:07created a trust deficit.
14:09I said at the outset, I think we've pivoted very nimbly and ensured that our relationship with Iran are back
14:15on track.
14:15Look at it through the prism of India, right?
14:15Let's look at it through the prism of India.
14:17You have the Prime Minister.
14:18These are unprecedented times as well.
14:20You have your Prime Minister saying we could be looking at a Covid-like situation.
14:23We would need, you know, to follow our interests, yet keep all the diplomatic channels open.
14:28Because we need the gas, we need the oil in days to come.
14:31And that's exactly what India is doing, you know.
14:34And look at the statistics the government has put out today in the view of rumour-mongering that's been happening.
14:40That there is a shortage of LPG according to the government.
14:44They are saying we have enough stocks when it comes to crude for the next two months.
14:48And there's already lined up and payments made and deals being secured for the next two months.
14:53So there is no shortage of crude.
14:55India, the government is officially saying we are the fourth largest refiner, the fifth largest exporter of petroleum products.
15:04So look at the way India has moved. Can we stop looking at India through that Cold War mindset of
15:09non-alignment and equal distance from everybody?
15:12We are equally close to everybody because that holds India in good stead. That's exactly what is happening.
15:18But Sandeep, you yourself said that, you know, it's not the foreign policy of the making of the incumbent government.
15:24It has been the foreign policy of India through the years.
15:27Yes, India's policy has been multi-alignment. Non-alignment was discarded.
15:32As the Indian economy grew post 1991, you saw India, the Cold War ended, you saw a more confident, more
15:39resurgent India.
15:40And you're now looking at a country that could be the world's third largest economy by the end of this
15:45decade.
15:46So then that comes with all kinds of responsibilities.
15:49And let's not forget, you have 1.4 billion people. You have the largest mass of humanity on the planet.
15:55And your number one responsibility is to them.
15:57And it's not for doing some item number that I was chosen by President Trump to mediate a, you know,
16:03a conflict between the US and Iran.
16:05Our priority is our people. It's always been our people.
16:08Whether it's the Green Revolution, whether it's the Grey Revolution, which is nuclear weapons, food security, national security, all of
16:15these have been taken.
16:16These big decisions have been taken, keeping the people of India in mind. We, the people of India, the first
16:22lines of our constitution.
16:23You know, with what Sandeep said, Geetan, let me bring you in and let's address the elephant in the room.
16:27There was so much discussion in the last 48 hours on whether India should have been the mediator.
16:32How can Pakistan, you know, be the go-between?
16:35And many would also think that maybe it was in India's best interest to sit this one out.
16:40Well, whether if India wanted to sit this one out or not, it certainly would not have been a very
16:45comfortable place.
16:46It is not. And even for Pakistan, it's going to be a very difficult one.
16:50Asim Munir right now is walking a very, very thin line in ensuring that his Shia population does not get
16:59riled should America ask Pakistan for its basis.
17:04Mm-hmm.
17:05On the one hand, if the peace deal does not go through. So, more than brokering peace, I think America
17:11did not look at New Delhi and looked at Pakistan is because should there be no brokering of peace, they'd
17:16be then asking for the basis.
17:18So, this is not a, this is not a happy situation for Pakistan. They can gloat over it, but they're
17:23going to have a very difficult time.
17:23Rajdeep, of the opinion, better to sit it out?
17:25No, it's not a question of us sitting it out. It's a question of Pakistan not having an independent foreign
17:29policy. This is a country which, because of the…
17:31But there's also Egypt and Turkey.
17:32Pakistan is the consequence of geography. Pakistan's location has made it a frontline state for the U.S. in the
17:39war against, against, in Afghanistan…
17:42All wars. For all wars. For all wars over the years, particularly in the post-1980 period, during the Cold
17:50War period, post-Cold War period and now in this new world order, Pakistan's location, geographical location makes it almost
17:57a necessity to use Pakistan as some kind of…
18:02So, I don't think Pakistan is… Pakistan can gloat that they are, you know, they're being asked to negotiate. I
18:10don't think that's the case at all. I think… I don't think Pakistan has an independent foreign policy at all
18:14in this regard.
18:15Having said that, please also understand, as part of this multi-alignment, you know, Pakistan has a defence pact with
18:21Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is another important stakeholder in what happens now in this region.
18:27Pakistan will be… Pakistan will be… have to be conscious of that as well. Saudi interests. Every report coming in
18:32from Saudis, Saudi would also like a much weakened Iran.
18:35Right. So, this is a very, very complex situation. It's not about us sitting it out. I think we do
18:41not have…
18:42Yeah. Exactly. Yeah. It's better to sit it out. Yeah. So, it's not about sitting it out. We are… When
18:47you're dealing with Donald Trump, why should we…
18:50Exactly. Why should we want to get into the… into a deal which might just fall on…
18:54But your question on Turkey… Egypt… Egypt…
18:58Egypt… Oman… They are countries that are strong. I don't think Trump wants to deal with a country that would
19:03have a say.
19:04So, these are the satellites. But if you're saying, you know, Pakistan is Gaurav's favourite catcher…
19:09It's a client state. Pakistan is a client state. Gaurav has to have a world in where Pakistan comes into
19:13question.
19:14No, I am very happy because we will… You know, there was an ecosystem in our country, in our country,
19:19that was celebrating more than Pakistan when DGISI was sipping a cup of coffee at the Serena Hotel…
19:24In Kabul, August 2021, saying, wow, Pakistan's foreign policy…
19:30Pakistan is back in Afghanistan… Who said that?
19:32I'll tell you names on the other side… Come on…
19:35But be that as if… You know, that's not very critical. I will play that out to you.
19:39But, you know, they were celebrating that Pakistan's foreign policy has worked. What is the situation today?
19:45Pakistan is losing 5,000 people on that AFPAC border…
19:49Yeah, we knew that. We knew it was coming.
19:50And we knew it was coming. So, India is very gladly sitting this out.
19:53It's no… There is no point sitting in…
19:56That's what I am saying.
19:57But there are some who are still criticising the government's foreign policy that Pakistan is on centre stage.
20:03Aray, Pakistan is a terrorist.
20:06No, no, no, no.
20:08Also, post-operation Sindur, we created also this perception that Pakistan has been isolated globally. That is not true.
20:15That's true.
20:15The reality is that geography of Pakistan is such, I repeat…
20:19That's not true.
20:21You do programme after programme saying that and that's not true.
20:25And you must accept that.
20:26Sandeep.
20:26Whitehall papers. Look at the Whitehall papers of 1946, the declassified papers.
20:31They are available online where the British general staff assesses Pakistan and India and they say,
20:36we must push for Pakistan because Pakistan will give us bases. India will not.
20:41Right?
20:41That is a…
20:43It's 80 years.
20:44It's 80 years.
20:45As Rajiv was saying, it's the geography of Pakistan.
20:47They will be used.
20:48They will be used.
20:49They will be used and thrown.
20:50It's happened so many times.
20:52That's the reason for Pakistan's existence.
20:53Now, coming back to the present…
20:55Talking about riled up, nothing riles up Gaurav more than Pakistan.
20:58No, no, no.
20:59They have bled us for decades.
21:02They have bled us for decades.
21:04I am appalled that there are people who want good ties with a state sponsor of radical Islamist terror.
21:10Till the time Pakistan does not take action.
21:12I want good ties with Pakistan, but let them take action against…
21:15Okay, okay.
21:15It's not about our ties with Pakistan.
21:17It's about Pakistan's ties with America and Iran.
21:19If you offer to mediate between Iran, the US and Israel…
21:23Right.
21:23Prepare to have the US mediate between India and Pakistan over Kashmir.
21:27Okay.
21:28Geetha, I'm going to give you the last two minutes, our foreign affairs editor.
21:31I think we're all okay with that.
21:33Closing comments, Geetha.
21:34What are we looking at?
21:35India's foreign policy in days to come.
21:37I think for now, we are comfortably positioned when it comes to…
21:40how Iran is looking at India as a friend, as an ally.
21:44And some of our tankers are coming through.
21:47But the days ahead, like Sandy was saying just before the show began,
21:51could look very tough if there's going to be an escalation in the Strait of Hormuz.
21:56Because that would not allow any of the tankers to come out.
21:59And it's not just about the tankers, Geetha.
22:01Because when the Prime Minister in Parliament says that we need to unite
22:05and be prepared for a COVID-like situation.
22:07I agree.
22:07What does a COVID-like situation mean?
22:09It's not just…
22:10We're not looking at just oil.
22:12It just means…
22:12We're not looking at LPG.
22:13We're looking at everything.
22:14Everything.
22:15But it just means that we should not be caught off guard as…
22:18The whole world wars with the Russia-Ukraine war.
22:21You need to prepare in advance.
22:23There are alternate measures that have already been taken.
22:25You need to have measures.
22:26For example, you're getting both oil and gas through the Russia route,
22:30through the US route, from Australia.
22:32So even if this route stops, there will be…
22:36No, no, no, no.
22:37You see, this is where…
22:38My friend…
22:39No, no, no.
23:01Please get PNG.
23:02No, please get PNG.
23:03Millions of people in India don't have PNG.
23:07Millions of people in India don't have PNG.
23:09Millions of Indians have a reality that they have to deal with.
23:11Please.
23:12Please.
23:12Just to tell you what lies ahead.
23:14Very quickly.
23:15What lies ahead is that Iran has warned the United States that if they try an island-hopping campaign,
23:21if they try to capture Iranian islands, they will shut the Straits of Hormuz.
23:25And the Babal Mandab.
23:27And everything.
23:27Everything will stop.
23:28So it's a bad situation.
23:29That's why we're looking at a lockdown kind of a situation.
23:32These rules.
23:32The Straits of Hormuz will be locked down.
23:34Okay, the three of you.
23:35The three of you.
23:36The four of you.
23:37Show of hands.
23:38Will there be boots on ground soon?
23:40Show of hands.
23:41Only one?
23:41Well, there will be boots on ground whether now or later.
23:45There will be boots on ground.
23:45We are going to do one thing.
23:46The aim is to control Iran.
23:52I refuse to answer such a question.
23:54I don't think any of us know what is in Donald Trump's mind.
23:57What do you think?
23:57How do I know?
23:59Three seconds.
23:59Yesterday there was a congressional hearing and most of them who came out, the lawmakers,
24:05said that I do not support boots on ground.
24:08But after this hearing, I certainly do not support boots on ground.
24:12On that note, I'm going to close the show.
24:13Donald Trump's ratings are at their lowest level.
24:14Okay, I'm going to close the Democratic newsroom.
24:17It was quite a robust conversation.
24:18We're going to take the conversation further where we're going to look at the domestic implication of this.
24:23Thanks.
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