00:00Well, to get more insight, we can speak now to Andrew Smith, lecturer at Queen Mary, University of London.
00:06Thanks so much for your time. We're seeing overall a bit of a mixed picture this morning.
00:10And we had quite a low voter turnout, the lowest since that Covid pandemic.
00:14How do you read into that? Do you think it's a reaction to anything in particular or somewhat normal when
00:20we have, you know, elections every so years and we like to change who's in power?
00:25Well, I think, you know, one of the things you've got to see is this is really a dress rehearsal
00:29for 12 months of really important democratic decision making for the French.
00:34And like you say, like any dress rehearsal, it was very poorly attended.
00:40You know, we had almost 44 percent of voters who stayed away.
00:45And I think that's really got to be the lesson out of all of this.
00:49And for years, we've heard that the local mayor is the French people's favorite politician.
00:54But this really is a precipitous drop in turnout.
00:58Sure, it might be a little bit more than 2020, but we know the Covid impact on that and all
01:03the rest of it.
01:03You know, in 2014, turnout was up at 63.5 percent.
01:07Back in the 1980s, it was eight in 10 people that were voting.
01:10So the story of this election, if there's any kind of real lessons to be drawn from it, is really
01:16that, you know, the election is there to be won.
01:19French people who didn't vote in the first round can look at this and say, actually, my vote will count.
01:25I can do something. This is an election in which I will have a say.
01:29And so the real lesson for this for the French people has to be to engage, to vote and to
01:34shape France's future.
01:36Now, looking at those towns and cities that have a second round runoff, you know, a lot of the parties
01:44are calling for alliances.
01:46Here in Paris, we have the socialist candidate in the lead.
01:49You have the former culture minister, Rashida Dati, of the right-wing party, who wants an alliance of right-wing
01:53parties.
01:53We're hearing similar things from the far left.
01:56They want to form an allegiance with the left.
01:58How do you see that?
01:59I mean, is that reducing choice for the voter or simply adding clarity?
02:06Yeah, I think, well, you know, there's no lessons from this first round result in terms of particular parties and
02:12a national picture.
02:14In reality, as you say, what we're going to learn about what the elections to come, the second round, the
02:18presidential coming up at the start of next year,
02:21what we're going to learn is about this idea of alliances.
02:24And I think there's a lot to be seen here.
02:26You know, what is the porosity of the right-wing?
02:28We've seen, you know, many of those centre-right candidates much more willing to look to the extreme right.
02:34And you mentioned, of course, Rashida Dati and the former culture minister.
02:38We thought Sarah Knafo was kaput in Paris, but she's crept into the second round with, you know, just over
02:4410 percent.
02:45And very quickly, she'll be making kind of appeals to Rashida Dati.
02:49We saw her speaking in Paris last night, very quick to court Dati's affections.
02:54Indeed, we'll see a lot more from Pierre-Yves Bournazel, of course, and the centrist.
02:58Will he shift towards looking to support Emmanuel Grégoire on the kind of on the left?
03:04And actually, that's one of the big things, because Emmanuel Grégoire in Paris, we've seen he said no to any
03:10formal alliance with la France insoumise on the far left.
03:14That's been echoed really from the Parti Socialiste headquarters.
03:18Olivier Faure has been very clear that he wants no national alliance, no systematic alliance.
03:25We've seen people like Raphael Glucksmann, of course, the MEP, saying to resist the siren calls of the far left.
03:32But there are other places where that will be much more useful.
03:36Places like Marseille, for example.
03:38You mentioned Benoit Payon, of course, is kind of neck and neck with the far right.
03:42And even there, we've seen, of course, the LFI is suddenly much more keen to create an anti-fascist front,
03:51as they call it, and actually cleave towards the centre left.
03:55So there are going to be deals city by city.
03:57There are going to be a lot of kind of things hay made in this moment.
04:01And the lessons I think we'll gain for the future is, well, first of all, the porosity of the right.
04:07And second of all, the centre left clarifying its relationship and how much it's willing to deal with the far
04:14left.
04:14Those, I think, are going to be the big lessons from this first round.
04:17And then how much of an impact do you think all that could have on, you know, most eyes here
04:21already looking at the presidential elections next year?
04:23And a lot of people saying, well, if the National Rally takes France's second biggest city in Marseille, that's a
04:29sure sign that they could take the presidential election as well.
04:33Well, I think the big story here as well is that there was no great success for the National Rally.
04:39There was no great surge.
04:41It was much less promising than they hope, sure.
04:44They've done well in Nice, of course, with, you know, the far right's favourite friend, Eric Chiotty, in Marseille, in
04:51Toulon.
04:51And, of course, you mentioned in Perpignan, where they held it.
04:54But look at that turnout.
04:56You know, we're talking about something like a, you know, 44% abstention rate.
05:00Someone like Louis Alliot in Perpignan, he's taken, you know, about 25% of the electorate has voted for him
05:07in terms of the available electorate.
05:09This is no great endorsement of the far right's programme.
05:13In fact, you know, they failed in places like Calais.
05:16They failed in places like Lens.
05:18These were big ticket places that they wanted to succeed.
05:21So they might have done better than 2020.
05:23But I think they've done worse than 2014 in terms of the presence in the second round.
05:28So I think it's really important to state this is no great success for the far right.
05:33And in fact, there'll be a lot of disappointment.
05:35Leaders have already been out early to try and define those narratives.
05:39But actually, they will be using this to try and put pressure on the centre right,
05:44to try and turn the head of people like Bruno Retaio as they move forward.
05:48He, of course, is saying he doesn't want any formal alliances.
05:52But I think it remains to be seen as he tests his mettle.
05:55He's already said he hates the kind of, you know, the far left.
05:58And he might have closed the door to a formal alliance with the far right.
06:02But I think he's certainly left a window open.
06:04And that's really going to be the big thing we'll learn in terms of what happens for the presidential to
06:09come.
06:09Andrew Smith of Queen Mary, University of London.
06:12Thanks so much for joining us and bringing us your insight.
06:14Very much appreciated.
06:15Thanks for having me.
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