04:46I had to check my phone three times to make sure I was reading correctly.
04:49Do you think that this government is going to last beyond Thursday?
04:54Well, I think it's very much up in the air. You asked the question there of Antonia,
05:00and she said safe would be a very strong word for it. I think that it really is on a knife edge.
05:06It really depends very much on what he outlines today in the general political statement that he makes
05:12and what he says his concessions are going to be. We know a little bit about the budget.
05:17We've had a briefing document this morning, and we know that there are elements of it that are meant to please the left
05:23and elements that will please the right. But it really is a question on just how far he's willing to go on the idea of properly debating the budget
05:33and properly debating, for example, suspension or changes to the pensions reform and how far that would bring the left in.
05:42The savings he wants to make are a little less than what François Bayhou wanted to make.
05:47This, I believe, is to make some 31 billion euros in savings versus 44 billion, which Bayhou attempted to do.
05:56So let's talk about the Socialists, because the Socialists wants to see pension reform scrapped.
06:01If he does go ahead and do this, he probably may lose support of the Conservative Labour Party.
06:07So it's a Catch-22 situation, isn't it?
06:12I don't think he's going to go as far as completely suspending.
06:15I think there are elements of it that will be suspended, particularly for certain, what the French call generations,
06:20certain years that are coming towards retirement age.
06:42And of course, for a motion of no confidence to pass, it has to have an absolute majority of votes.
06:47So it looks like the right wing of the potential coalition is there.
06:54It's really a question of just how many concessions will either bring the Socialists on board or at least persuade them not to censure the government on Thursday.
07:03There might be a moment later on that where that might come along.
07:07But it's the idea of at least letting the government get up and running and start the debate in parliament over the budget.
07:14But you're absolutely right. The numbers are much lower than the Bayrou government were proposing.
07:20Do you see any strategy between Emmanuel Macron in what Emmanuel Macron is doing?
07:26I mean, reappointing a prime minister who quit on Monday, whose resignation you accepted a couple of hours later.
07:32Is there any strategy with renaming him again? What is he trying to do? Just delay the inevitable, which would be dissolving parliament?
07:39It's a very odd strategy. I mean, I almost I almost feel like that line in Apocalypse Now where somebody says where the the Kurtz character says, what do you think of my methods?
07:49And the reply is, I don't see any method at all. It's very difficult.
07:54I mean, we've seen two prime ministers come and go. One was very strong within the Republic and Barnier.
08:00Bayou was the leader of a party. Look on you. I think for many people looks too much like Macron.
08:06And of course, you mentioned Friday when we had these negotiations between look on you in the parties, but shared by Macron.
08:13It looks very much like Macron is trying to take back some kind of control of this situation rather than than letting it go.
08:20And I think that that is that's a mistake in strategy, because if look on you is trying to sell the idea to parliament that look, this is this is our starting point.
08:30Let's debate this. You bring your amendments. This is my budget. You bring your amendments. Let's talk about this.
08:35I'm not going to use. Is he going to use 49.3 or not? He hasn't gone back and revisited that idea.
08:41So I think that the Macron strategy is is frankly not working.
08:46It's not convincing the parties that it's not really him that's in the room rather than Le Cornu.
08:52Is the fact that the last time when Le Cornu stepped down, he said it was egos that were essentially getting the better off these politicians.
09:03And this is also what's looming in the background, isn't it? The presidency that's up for grabs in 2027.
09:55has actually announced this morning that he's stepping down from his role within the presidential party Renaissance in order to be, as he puts it, a good servant of the country.
10:05So there there is also this, as you say, this game of egos.
10:09And I think that Retailleux's position was pretty much untenable.
10:12Part of the problem is that all of these political groups think they've got a majority by themselves, which they don't have.
10:19And again, this comes back to the the inability to form coalitions.
10:23I know it's too early to to ask questions about Emmanuel Macron's legacy.
10:28But one needs to think of this, because if he does go ahead and dissolve the National Assembly,
10:33the great risk is that the far right national rally increases their seat share in Parliament.
10:39And this begs the question of Macron, doesn't it?
10:43Because he spent his entire presidency looking over his shoulder at Marine Le Pen.
10:47And then here we are today where they are an emboldened party here in France.
10:53Well, yes, you're right. And of course, he's always presented himself as being the the last bulwark, if you like, the last defense against Le Pen.
11:01If he were to dissolve Parliament and if they were to become the single largest party, which is certainly a possibility, if not a probability, then one would ask some big questions.
11:11But this might also be part of the playbook that let's imagine that he dissolves Parliament by the end of this week or early next week.
11:20We have an election and they actually are the biggest group. Do they really want to govern?
11:25Does the national rally really want to govern and make an absolute, you know, not govern well for a year and then we have a presidential election?
11:36Is that really what they want? I suspect that they do. They would take that. They would, you know, bite your hand off if you offered it.
11:42But it's a very real threat.
11:45Yeah, they say they're ready for an election and they're waiting to go. Let's see how this story pans out.
11:51Thank you very much, Paul Smith, for joining us on the program today.
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