00:00Let's come back to France now, where far-right leader Marine Le Pen begins a crucial appeal in Paris this Tuesday
00:05that should determine whether she can run in next year's presidential election
00:10after she was barred from public office over a conviction of misusing EU funds.
00:15The National Rally's number two, Jordan Bardella, said a court ruling against Le Pen would be deeply worrying for democracy.
00:21But Le Pen's protege also stands to gain from that happening as he would run in her place.
00:27Emerald Maxwell takes a closer look.
00:30These pictures from last March show Marine Le Pen leaving the courtroom
00:34after she found out she was barred from running for office for five years, effective immediately.
00:40A major setback for the French far-right leader's presidential ambitions, but perhaps not a fatal one.
00:47Her appeal trial against her conviction for misusing EU funds begins Tuesday.
00:51And for ruling expected before the summer, Le Pen could still run in 2027 if her ban is revoked.
00:57On the eve of the appeal's opening, her protégé and president of her National Rally Party emphasized his full support for her.
01:07It would be deeply worrying for democracy if the justice system were to deprive the French people of a candidate in the presidential election
01:13who has already qualified twice for the second round and is now considered the undisputed favorite in the polls.
01:19But that's not quite true.
01:21Recent polls show Le Pen's legal woes appear to have benefited her second-in-command
01:26and that voters prefer Jordaine Bardella to her.
01:30Polls also indicate that most French people supported the ruling against her
01:34after she was found guilty of misappropriating more than 4 million euros of EU funds.
01:38The case could spell the end of the Le Pen family saga in the national rally, according to this analyst.
01:45Marine Le Pen appeals to the lower classes.
01:51Bardella seems to appeal more to the higher segment of French society.
01:58Well, this guy is young, is smart, he does not stand against free market economy
02:05and is more acceptable than Marine Le Pen for the only reason that his name is not Le Pen.
02:12Meanwhile, the national rally is stronger than ever.
02:15Around 42% of French people agree with the ideas of the far-right party, up 13 points since 2022.
02:24We're going to get a bit more analysis now with French politics expert Paul Smith from Nottingham University.
02:30Hello, Paul. Always great to have you on the show.
02:32Just explain to our viewers, if you will, why has the far-right seen such a surge in recent years?
02:39Well, I think it's the politics of frustration, that they stand for those who feel left behind
02:45and that discourse of the left behind has been very strongly fed not only by the far-right,
02:50but of course by the traditional right and other parties actually kind of buying into that.
02:55So the surge in support for the far-right in France is much the same as you see in other countries,
03:01reform in the UK, the success of Giorgio Meloni in Italy and Trump in the US.
03:08So it's kind of a cultural, political, social phenomenon that we've seen,
03:13not just in France, but in other countries.
03:15Marine Le Pen herself has slammed that initial verdict as a political decision.
03:20Do you think there could be any truth to that?
03:21No, I don't think so. I think that the legal system does what the legal system has to do.
03:27She's bound to say that, isn't she? I mean, that's what you would say.
03:31That's what Sarkozy says about all the decisions that are taken against him,
03:35and yet he keeps on being found guilty.
03:37And she's been found to be at the centre of this system that was
03:41channelling funds away from the EU and into her party, was strictly illegally.
03:45And it seems very unlikely that the Court of Appeal will say,
03:51actually, no, the first trial was completely wrong and they're going to overturn the verdict.
03:57At least that would be my take on it at this point in time,
04:01unless there's something fundamentally wrong with the evidence the first time round.
04:06Indeed.
04:06Indeed. So, in your opinion, the Court probably will not overturn her conviction for embezzlement.
04:12So, if she then can't run for president next year, and what would be her fourth bid,
04:16how much is she going to back her protege, Jordan Bardella?
04:19Well, I think the first thing to say, Jeannie, is that I think she might hope for a reduction in the penalty.
04:25It might be that the tribunal says, yes, you did these things,
04:29but the punishment is a little bit exaggerated in relation to the crime.
04:33They might reduce that ineligibility to two years, and then that could be backdated to March last year,
04:40and it would come to an end in March of next year.
04:42There might be – so, something along those lines might happen.
04:45Then, of course, there's also the possibility in French law of going to a thing called cassation,
04:50which is another Court of Appeal which actually could overturn the decision on the basis of process.
04:55That would be another way of going.
04:58But she's already used the talk.
05:00She's already adopted Bardella, and one of the reasons, of course, that he's emerging as the favourite,
05:06and Jean-Yves Camus' views there were very interesting as well,
05:10is that actually she's kind of had to push him forward.
05:13And the consequence of that is that he's become very popular.
05:16And we've seen, I think your commentator mentioned, opinion polls over the weekend
05:20that suggest that he is now more popular with Rassemblement National voters than she is.
05:27And so, if something dramatic doesn't happen in June when the court delivers its verdict,
05:33then it's almost – it's pretty much her career is over.
05:38Let's say, though, that they do not maintain her innocence,
05:41but she does have the possibility to run in the election.
05:44As you said, she'll probably get the result from this hearing in June.
05:47The election is late April, early May.
05:49I mean, compared to other countries around the world,
05:51that doesn't seem like a lot of time to get a new campaign up and running.
05:54No, that, of course, is what she said as well.
05:58But let's remember that the Court of Appeal has actually brought this forward.
06:01Normally, we wouldn't expect appeal this soon after the original judgment.
06:06And this Court of Cassation has also said that we would also look at this,
06:10we would accelerate the process.
06:11So there's been a little bit of, you know, movement around that.
06:14But you're absolutely right.
06:15In the very last date, really, that she would –
06:18I mean, she'd like to be able to start straight away.
06:20But really, the anti-politique sort of September, late August, September time would be ideal
06:25for her to be able to say – and June would be even better –
06:30for her to be able to have the summer running into it.
06:33And so there is that argument that you can't really run a campaign.
06:36That said, other quite, you know, well-placed candidates or candidates who've done surprisingly well
06:42have run late.
06:43But she would like a longer campaign rather than a shorter one.
06:47But she might, you know, might turn the tables completely, run a lightning campaign
06:52and get elected on that basis.
06:53Who knows?
06:54Paul, just a quick word before you go, whether it's Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella,
06:58a candidate from the far right seems pretty set to have a good following in the presidential
07:02election next year, given that current President Emmanuel Macron can't run again.
07:06Who are going to be the other main opponents?
07:09OK, well, there's the possibility of Édouard Philippe as the kind of centre-right candidate.
07:15There are one or two other potential candidates.
07:19Xavier Bertrand would see himself as a potential candidate.
07:23And there are some other names.
07:24We might even get a surprise candidate from the right, maybe a Rachida Dati,
07:28although she's really focused on becoming mayor of Paris.
07:31But I think that those are the candidates who would try to take advantage of her weakening
07:37and try to reposition, maybe drag the right-wing vote back towards the centre.
07:42But I think that's going to be a very, very difficult task indeed.
07:46All right, Paul.
07:47Thanks so much for your expertise.
07:48As always, I'm sure we'll be checking back in with you as we get closer and closer
07:51to that eventual presidential election next year.
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