00:00We can now bring in Andrew Smith, historian of modern France and senior lecturer at Queen Mary University, who was listening to, by whose statement there with me, what did you make of what the prime minister had to say, where he essentially called out the left for attempting to take the battle and the problems France has out on the streets?
00:21Well, you know, a really big surprise announcement there. Of course, you know, I was joking earlier on about 49.3 and forcing things through Parliament.
00:32Of course, what François Barreau has sought permission to do is enact 49.1. That means they will hold this sort of vote of confidence, a sort of back me or sack me process on the 8th of September, preempting that big movement, that big blockage campaign on the 10th of September.
00:51So this is an attempt to bring things back into Parliament, to make people kind of realise their responsibilities and try to kind of sort things out within the Parliament.
01:01Now, in terms of his message, look, I mean, he said all this before for the last, you know, 20 odd years.
01:06Well, you might say the last 40 odd years he's been in politics.
01:10But certainly it sounds a lot like he said on the 15th of July in his speech.
01:14We've heard these. If you're one of those few, those happy few that sat and watched his Facebook Live or his YouTube videos he made,
01:20he said much of these same things, debt as a chronic illness, France trying to keep its head up amid a turbulent sea of global struggles.
01:29And the message really was here that people have to, the country has to spend more, spend less, excuse me,
01:35and that France has to work more as a result to spend less and produce more.
01:41Now, that's his solution. That's what we've looked at.
01:43But as he said, to try and counteract this idea of taking things to the streets, he said, let's take it back to Parliament.
01:51And so, back me or sack me on the 8th of September, it's a big old day down in the National Assembly.
01:57But won't it be a risky move, the fact that he's doing this to take it back to Parliament,
02:01because the government could end up shooting itself in the foot?
02:03I mean, this is something that Emmanuel Macron did exactly last year.
02:09Absolutely. Yes, it's not dissolving Parliament.
02:13So we will still have the same kind of process.
02:16We don't have any more elections.
02:18But I will probably guess, for me, unless something radically changes, unless there is some big movement,
02:25it looks to me like everything already has ranged against Beirut's government and its budget plan.
02:32Look, he's trying to win rounds kind of social actors like the unions,
02:43We looked at this, he said, for the last 20 years, debts being added.
02:46Well, you know, people will say to him, rightly enough, I think, well, who's been in charge for the last eight years?
02:51There is really not much to pull on to win people round.
02:54So this does look a very, very risky bet.
02:58And I would, you know, if I were a betting man, it's what I say, he might well lose.
03:03We'll see what happens come September 8th.
03:05But I want to ask about the current climate, because he did talk about divisions within Europe failing to speak with a unified voice.
03:12This, of course, comes weeks after we had Ursula von der Leyen, who struck a trade deal with the United States,
03:20by who was actually quite outspoken about how Europe essentially bent the knee to Washington.
03:27At the same time, we're going to have the French president who wants to continue sending funds to Ukraine,
03:34continue to arm Ukraine if there is ever a ceasefire deal reached with Russia.
03:40At one point, how will the government justify making these cuts, these savings, while at the same time continue to arm a country that is not in Europe, that is not in NATO?
03:51I think it will be a recourse to languages of sovereignty.
03:58It will continue to be.
03:59We know that Emmanuel Macron used this language in his last presidential run.
04:04He spoke of the need for strategic autonomy.
04:06We've seen him question, you know, even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine,
04:10this idea of where NATO leadership was going, and I need to reinvest in securing a Europe which can protect its people.
04:19And I think it will be pushed really at this idea of saying this is not about simply supporting a country which is not in Europe.
04:26This is about the sort of territorial integrity of Europe.
04:30This is about recognising that Russia does not stop Ukraine in terms of territorial demands.
04:34It's about recognising that attacks against Europe's borders and war in mainland Europe is a reality that we're facing today.
04:42But Andrew, if I can just jump in on your point, Andrew, if I can jump in on your point which you're making there,
04:47in terms of, for example, defence purchases for Ukraine,
04:51today Kiev said it wants to ask allies for $1 billion per month of defence purchases from the United States.
04:59So we've had the French president who's spoken about Europe standing on its own,
05:03but at the end of the day, it's the US who wants to sell its weapons but get Europe to pay.
05:12It's a discussion about debt, it's a discussion about trade, it's a difficult one in terms of realising these things.
05:17But I think at the same time, France is talking about, France is no slouch in terms of selling weapons and selling all the rest of it.
05:23One of the largest arms dealers in the world.
05:25And so I'm certain that French weapons producers will look to wet their beak as well.
05:29This is not something, I think, to be sold away in terms of basic trade.
05:33I think that language will be about sovereignty and production and investment in France.
05:37We heard already in that speech today about reshoring production,
05:40about looking to see that France can produce all that it needs in terms of industry.
05:44So for me, that's a language of sovereignty, which I think is consistent with the politics of Macronism
05:49since certainly the last presidential election.
05:53So I think France will be kind of resolute in its support for Ukraine,
05:56trying to push and lead a European response to this.
05:59Again, underlining the fact that they can't rely on shifting American whims in terms of this quite vital,
06:07I think existential security policy.
06:10How do you think the far right is going to react based on what they've heard from the prime minister today?
06:17It's going to be a challenge, I think,
06:18because we know that the far right will be frequently pushing for likely a vote of censure.
06:25It's not really in their interest to keep François Bayrou in place.
06:30This is almost something that they would welcome because they can bring down the government
06:33and cause all the kind of problems that they might want without ever having to contribute anything positive.
06:39And we've seen already they're going to be putting a counterproposal budget to Bayrou.
06:45It would be surprising if this is something the government's able to accept.
06:49I think it's going to be about leveraging the idea of chaos to their maximum electoral advantage.
06:55That is what I think the reaction will be.
06:58If the far right sells it to their electorate that these these 44 billion euros is essentially an austerity budget,
07:07won't that make them more popular when they look to the presidency down the line?
07:13I think absolutely it will.
07:15This is the difficulty of the kind of the politics of that type of demagoguery,
07:22that when you look at these rather fantasy budgets, as we've seen in previous years,
07:27they often don't stack up.
07:29They're not always intended to make fiscal sense.
07:32But more than ever, the far right is looking at targeting the presidency,
07:36looking at really making a run at election.
07:40And I think this will be the big problem when suddenly fantasy numbers and theories about debt
07:45really come crunching home.
07:48So I think this will be a moment where they will sell this as an austerity budget.
07:51They will promise untold millions of investments.
07:53But in reality, those will be fantasy numbers and design for short term political gain.
07:59Andrew Smith, thank you so much for joining us on the programme today with your analysis.
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