00:00We're going to talk more about the French municipal elections now with French politics expert Paul Smith, who joins me
00:05now live.
00:06Paul, before we get into the details of this first round, just explain to us a bit more about how
00:10the voting process in this election was different for the first time.
00:14OK, well, there are a number of differences, one of them, particularly in the big cities.
00:19There's a different process for deciding the local arrondissement councils, the districts, but also right across the piece,
00:28even in the smallest communes in France, they've been using a list system of PR.
00:33So whether you're voting in Paris or whether you're voting in La Chapelle-aux-Saint in the middle of the
00:37Corrèze, middle of nowhere, you've been using a PR system.
00:42All right. So coming off the back of that, now we're looking at this two system of voting.
00:46We're also looking at a second round of voting that's coming up on Sunday.
00:49Politicians are already looking to make cross-party alliances.
00:52That's the case, for example, in Paris with the right wing candidate Rashida Dati.
00:56How do you see these alliances shaping up over the next day?
01:00Well, it's going to be very tricky indeed.
01:02I mean, as you say, they've got until tomorrow evening, six o'clock tomorrow evening, to declare whether they're going
01:07to join lists.
01:08You can do this. You have the right to strike an agreement, bring candidates in from one list to join
01:14another.
01:15But that doesn't look like it's going to happen very much.
01:18In certain places it is happening.
01:19Toulouse, there's been talk of the far left and the centre-left joining lists.
01:24But in other places, Marseille and Paris not happening, just standing, leaving your list as they are and seeing what
01:30happens next Sunday and just hoping that there's not too much electoral defection, as it were, from one list to
01:38another.
01:38So, for example, someone like Sarah Knafo deciding that Roy Conquette needs seats on Paris municipal council, so they'll stand.
01:47But that would undermine Dati, Rashida Dati, undermine her efforts and Bournazel's position as well, her efforts to overtake the
01:54socialist left.
01:55But, of course, as you say, on the left, there's also the question of whether la France insoumise and its
02:00candidate would stand out or what they would say about supporting Grégoire.
02:05And at the moment, of course, that's all very, very much up in the air and looks very unlikely, specifically
02:09in Paris.
02:10But the socialists have said very clearly, Olivier Faure, the head of the socialists, the general secretary of the Socialist
02:15Party yesterday, said no national agreements will go on a case-by-case basis.
02:21Indeed. And what about the far-right party in all of this, the national rally?
02:24It could possibly take the huge French city of Marseille.
02:29How significant do you see that and do you think that will happen?
02:33It would be significant.
02:35And as you say, you know, it's a big risk.
02:38And at the moment, the socialist candidate is saying that there'll be no deal with the far left, with la
02:43France insoumise, the France unbowed.
02:45And so it is a possibility that Marseille would fall to the far right.
02:49Generally speaking, however, these elections have not been as successful as the national rally would have hoped.
02:55They're looking good in Marseille.
02:57They look reasonably strong in Toulon, though that could still escape them.
03:00So the surge that they were hoping for hasn't really materialised, not so much in the southeast.
03:06They've got pretty much what they expected there.
03:08But they were looking forward to some decent results in the northeast of France.
03:12And those haven't really materialised.
03:14So it's a little bit of a glass half full, half empty scenario for the national rally.
03:22But Marseille will be where they'll really be pinning their hopes.
03:26So if these municipal elections are a litmus test ahead of next year's presidential election,
03:32where I remind everyone the current president, Emmanuel Macron, cannot run again,
03:36what do you read from this litmus test?
03:39Well, the general view is that, again, what's happening is we're going back to a left-right standoff.
03:44That, you know, the centre, Macron situated himself in the centre, said, you know, France wants to be governed from
03:49the centre.
03:50I'll stand in the centre and I'll be elected president of France.
03:53But what we're really seeing is a repolarisation and a reorganisation of those two polls.
03:59And the right is a very interesting statement.
04:02Pretty much the first political leader, national leader, to make a statement last night was Jordan Bardella,
04:07breaking with an old tradition of saying we won't ally with the left or the right and saying that he
04:12was ready to extend the hand,
04:14la main tendue, to the traditional right-wing parties.
04:20That's also making noises about a national majority.
04:23And, of course, in the context of France, when you talk about a national majority, you're talking about a coalition
04:28on the right.
04:29And then, of course, you've got the left having to think very carefully now, again, about the relationship between the
04:36more moderate,
04:37the centre-left, la France insoumise, France unbounded, and the Greens hoping to act as the kind of passerelle, the
04:45bridge between those two.
04:47The centre has more or less disappeared down the middle.
04:49And it's going to be very difficult to see how a potential Macron successor, as it were, someone like Edouard
04:55Philippe, can emerge within that.
04:58And just a quick word, Paul, before you go on turnout.
05:00Turnout was down in this round, at least.
05:04What does that say about the current state of politics here in France?
05:08Yeah, I think it was pretty much where we expected.
05:10It was nice to see it was up from 2020, but COVID explains a lot about that.
05:13But I think the French are a bit worn out with the political process.
05:16If we look at 2022, 2024, there was kind of a dip has happened here.
05:21I would expect the French to be participating pretty heavily next year.
05:25But there is a slight sort of sense of frustration with politics at the moment.
05:28And I think that's very clearly reflected in a turnout, which by French standards is low.
05:34So if you go somewhere else like Great Britain and look at local turnouts for local politics, wow, we'd love
05:39to have that in Britain.
05:40So all things are relative, but you're absolutely right.
05:42It is it is nevertheless, relatively speaking, a low turnout, not quite 60 percent.
05:48All right, Paul, thank you for that.
05:49I'm sure we'll be checking back in with you as we move through these municipal elections with the second round
05:53coming up next Sunday.
05:55That's Paul Smith speaking to me live.
05:57Thanks so much.
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