00:00Let's move on to bring you some news of France politically around one of the municipal elections here.
00:05It's seen a surprise rise of the far left, an entrenchment of the far right rather than the landslide its
00:11supporters in the French media have been talking up since the start of the year.
00:15And the jewel in the crown, the Paris mayor position, currently looks like remaining in the hands of the centre
00:20-left Socialist Party.
00:21As for the candidates of the ruling Renaissance group of Emmanuel Macron, modest success, 100 mayoral victories outright.
00:27So between now and next Sunday's second round, intense negotiations between the parties and factions are expected.
00:34Here's Emerald Maxwell.
00:37Negotiations across party lines are in full swing in cities across France, including in the capital,
00:42with stronger-than-expected showings from the far left and far right, complicating the traditional left and right's path to
00:49power.
00:50Right-wing candidate Rashida Dati has reached out to centre-right hopeful Pierre-Yves Bournazel,
00:55who has said he will only accept a run-off alliance if she rules out making any with the far
01:00right's Sarah Knafo.
01:03On the left, Socialist front-runner Emmanuel Grégoire has so far ignored overtures from the hard left's Sofia Chiquirou.
01:11Voters are divided about the way forward.
01:15I hope the socialist candidate will agree to an alliance with France and Baud,
01:19because I'm worried that Rashida Dati might get through.
01:22We don't know if Dati will accept an alliance with Sarah Knafo.
01:27Personally speaking, I'd like to see an agreement between Bournazel, Dati and Knafo,
01:32but I'm not sure that's going to happen.
01:36Alliances could mean that some voters won't vote because they don't agree with the alliances.
01:41In France's second city, the centre-left incumbent mayor has ruled out an alliance with the far-left France unbowed.
01:49I don't negotiate with party machines. I don't engage in backroom deals.
01:53There can't be any shady agreements.
01:55Instead, Benoît Payon called on the far-left to withdraw,
01:59thereby improving his chances against the national rally's Franck Aliziot with Humi's neck-and-neck.
02:05Determined not to lose a once-unthinkable shot at power for the far-right party in Marseille,
02:11Aliziot has reached out to the right-wing candidate Martine Vassal, who came third.
02:16I ask that she listen to her heart, to her conscience.
02:21The traditional right's choice is whether to maintain a cordon sanitaire around the far-right
02:26at the risk of defeat or seek partnership with it.
02:29Although alliances on the left have begun to take shape, like in Lille,
02:33the centre-left faces a similar dilemma in partnering with France unbowed,
02:37given its alleged ties to the killing of far-right activist Quentin de Ranque
02:41and allegations of anti-Semitism.
02:45Interesting week in store. Let's get some analysis.
02:47Joining us live from Lancaster in northwest England,
02:49Renaud Foucault, Senior Lecturer in Economics at Lancaster University.
02:53Renaud, as always, pleasure to have you with us.
02:55What kind of a week are you expecting here in France?
03:00A very busy local week, because I think the main surprise for the outside world of this election
03:06is that, unlike in England, for instance, this is not at all something that has any meaningful national interpretation.
03:13And I think the main reason is that Emmanuel Macron is alone in his tower as president,
03:18but there is basically no one who is really defending his government or his presidential mandate here.
03:24So there is no meaningful way to vote against the power or against the establishment.
03:29So when you listen to what happens in the big cities, there are very local issues,
03:34and the national trends are not mirrored here.
03:37So, for instance, Rassemblement National, they've basically disappeared from most of the big cities.
03:42They are, of course, in the south, in Marseille, in Nice.
03:45They've been doing very strong where they used to be in power,
03:49but you don't have any kind of mirror of the national landscape.
03:53And even more, like the largest party at the local level are the Socialist Party and Les RĂ©publicains,
03:59who are the traditional left and right.
04:01So local politicians tend to be more popular,
04:05and now they are going to try to build alliances at the local level.
04:09National politicians all have their discussions on TV,
04:12but at the local level, there will be alliances and they will depend on local parameters.
04:19Renaud, in some way, is this election a kind of bellwether,
04:23a kind of litmus test, to coin a phrase,
04:26for what might happen in the presidential election in 2027?
04:30People who are jockeying for position in the presidential election,
04:33they need to perform very well in local elections.
04:36So, for instance, Edouard Philippe,
04:39who is at the moment still the frontrunner for the centre-right,
04:43he was running in Le Havre,
04:45and Le Havre is not a very rich city,
04:49it's a place where you need to show you can engage with real people,
04:52and he was not in a very good position in the polls,
04:56and actually he performed very well yesterday.
04:58So this is the kind of thing for national politics that matter.
05:01In terms of the other national candidates,
05:04they need to have some kind of local stronghold.
05:07That's one of the reasons, for instance,
05:09why Sarah Maffo was trying to be positioned in Paris,
05:12because showing that you matter at least to a part of the country
05:16is much better if you want to tell your story
05:18as someone who represents the real people.
05:22The far-right narrative here in France, Renaud,
05:24has been highly amplified by certain parts of the French media
05:28with which it sympathises.
05:30The far-left, however,
05:31was perhaps the surprise package of this round one
05:35doing very well indeed.
05:38They do very well,
05:39but they do very well on a levelled way,
05:42meaning that there is only in Toulouse
05:44that they are in position to be in power.
05:46Everywhere else, there will be kingmakers.
05:49And this is actually a pretty dangerous position for the centre-left
05:53because they need to make local choices amid a national mood
05:57where people are really, really having a polarised view
06:01of MĂ©lenchon's party,
06:02following, of course, the anti-Semitism accusation,
06:05but in general,
06:0610, 15 years of outlandish MĂ©lenchon behaviour
06:10that makes it very hard to,
06:12at least at the national level,
06:14have an alliance with them.
06:15So, for instance, in Paris,
06:16Emmanuel Grégoire will have to run in the second round
06:19without Shikiru
06:21because she's way too close to MĂ©lenchon
06:22and allying with her would gain some voters on the left
06:25but would lose any chance of winning the centrists.
06:30Renaud Foucault, as always,
06:31thank you very much indeed.
06:32Hope to speak to you next week after the second round.
06:35Renaud Foucault there, joining us from Lancaster.
06:36Great to see you, sir.
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