00:00Well those are the headlines here on France 24 at this hour. Another intense day then in French
00:17politics this Thursday. The French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has survived two no-confidence
00:24votes after winning crucial backing from the Socialist Party. This after Lecornu offered
00:30to suspend the government's controversial pension reform until after the 2027 election,
00:37a move demanded by the Socialists. Well France 24's Antonia Kerrigan is covering this story
00:42for us. We spoke to her just a short time ago. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has said that
00:49he is satisfied and that it's time to get to work after a vote of confidence failed to oust him
00:55and his government, coming 18 votes short of a majority. Now the national rally who brought
01:01an additional vote of no confidence against him said this was a bought majority who are saving
01:06its seats around the table at the expense of the national interest. Meanwhile the radical left
01:12France unbowed lambasted the left-wing Socialist Party for lending their votes to this government
01:18in today's no confidence vote. Now this government did indeed survive thanks to borrowed support from
01:25the right-wing Republicans and the left-wing Socialist Party. The Socialists afforded their
01:30support earlier this week after the Prime Minister announced that he would suspend the 2023 pension
01:37reform. However the Socialists have said that if Sébastien Lecornu would like to see their votes
01:43further down the line when he tries to push through a budget they will be expecting more concessions
01:48on issues such as fiscal justice and measures to improve the purchasing power of the French
01:54people. The Republicans also lent their support today but also reiterated that their support is
02:00conditional that they would be expecting him to take a stand against high taxation and against
02:07high welfare handouts in the upcoming budget. In other words their demands are diametrically opposed
02:13for those of the Socialists putting the Prime Minister through a rock between a rock and a hard place.
02:20Antonia Kerrigan there. Well for more on this latest development in France's political dramas I am joined
02:26now on set by Damien Lecomte who is a political scientist at Paris Panthéon Sorbonne University.
02:34First of all welcome to France 24, welcome to the programme Monsieur Lecomte. First of all I want to start by asking you know what happens now? Is Sébastien Lecornu out of the words? Is he out of danger?
02:47And what about the budget which I think has to be passed by the end of December?
02:52Yeah, Sébastien Lecornu today has won at least some time, that is for sure. And it was not a done deal just a week ago or even a few days ago actually. But he is not out of trouble because now the debate will begin shortly on the budget, on the finance bill and the social security financing bill.
03:11And he has made two major concessions to the left, to the socialists, that is the suspension of the pension reform. And he has pledged to not use the infamous article 49.3 of the Constitution that allows the government to stop the deliberation and to force a bill through Parliament without the votes.
03:31But now he will have to make compromises with, especially on his right, the Conservative Republican Party, who is no more part of the government, they have decided to not participate in the government anymore, and with the socialists who are still in the opposition.
03:47And they have contradictory views on pretty much everything, and particularly on the budgetary policies. So it would be very difficult for him to mount some compromises in this parliamentary deliberation, but he has clearly won some time and make it possible to reach compromises.
04:10You know, what do you make of this? You know, it looks like they did a deal that the socialists said beforehand, if you offer to suspend the pension reforms, we will agree not to topple you that that deal was, many people suggesting, organised quite a few days back.
04:28What do you make of it? People are saying, you know, he's effectively hostage now to the Socialist Party and their programme.
04:34I think that Sébastien Le Corneux has shown a greater will to make compromises inside Parliament than his two predecessors, because Michel Barnier and François Bayrou never really tried to make concessions to the left wing.
04:49François Bayrou discussed with the socialists, but he never really made any major concessions with them.
04:53And it was a problem because you cannot, when you have such a small minority government with such a small parliamentary base, you have to discuss, you have to make, to negotiate, to find compromises for it to work.
05:05So now, Sébastien Le Corneux has made what Emmanuel Macron consistently refused to do in the last year.
05:12He has made this concession on the pension reform, and he seems to be more open to some concessions on the fiscal policies, especially to find some new taxes on the wealthiest, that is, what the socialists want to vote.
05:27So he is more willing to find compromises with the left wing.
05:31But, of course, his problem is that now he also has to keep the vote of the Conservative Party, the Republican Party.
05:39And now his government is based on a very small parliamentary coalition.
05:44It is just barely more than a fourth of the National Assembly.
05:50And he is completely dependent on both the central left, the Socialist Party, and the right wing, the Republican Party.
05:56And he has to find compromises that both of them will agree to not be, for his budget to be adopted by the National Assembly,
06:03and, of course, to not be overturned at the end of the year.
06:07So let's look at those parties.
06:10The Socialist Party then made, it looks like, this deal with Le Corneux.
06:14In doing so, they broke away from that alliance on the left with the far left,
06:20Le France Insoumise, the Greens, and the Communist Party.
06:25The Socialists broke away from that.
06:27Are we likely to see that alliance being hastily reformed if there are parliamentary elections called?
06:33I think it is not the end of the left wing alliance because the Socialists already decided at the beginning of the year
06:40to not vote the first motion of no confidence against François Bayrou,
06:44because they had achieved some minor concessions from François Bayrou,
06:47even if afterwards they still voted against his government.
06:53But it is not the first time that they are trying to obtain concessions from the government.
06:59And this time it is a greater concession than all those that they have obtained until then.
07:05So I think that they are hoping that the other left wing parties,
07:09left wing groups in the National Assembly will still fight with them in the parliamentary deliberation
07:14because even if the government has pledged to make this concession,
07:18this suspension of the pension reform,
07:20it remains to see what will come from the parliamentary deliberation on the finance bills,
07:31because the Socialists will need to have the help of the other left wing groups in the National Assembly
07:36and to reach some votes maybe from the centrists or even from the far right on some issues.
07:43So they will need to discuss with their left wing partners,
07:48even if these partners do not agree with them to support,
07:54to not vote against the government and not vote in a non-confident submission.
07:58Yeah. If you look at the mainstream right, the moderate right,
08:03Les Républicains, they were in a very difficult position.
08:06Their choice was to be responsible and not topple yet another government,
08:11and in doing so they would then be allowing the much cherished pension reform to go out the window.
08:21How do you think their voters are reacting to the position they took,
08:25which was to keep the government in power?
08:28I think that the Conservative voters are very divided as much as the party and the parliamentary group.
08:34That is, last year when the Conservatives decided to participate in the Michel Barnier government with the centrists,
08:40with the Macronist coalition, it was the first time that they were in an alliance.
08:44There was a post electoral government coalition between the centrists and the Conservatives.
08:49And it was a very, very precarious coalition.
08:53And for a year, we have seen that there was no political agreement in this coalition.
08:59Unlike what you can see in any government coalition in parliamentary systems in Europe,
09:04there was no real true political agreement within this coalition.
09:08And so it was very precarious.
09:10And so they decided to leave the government because Bruno Rotaillot has probably seen that...
09:19Bruno Rotaillot, who was the Interior Minister...
09:21He was the Interior Minister and always the President of the Republican Party.
09:26He probably saw that his electorate is more and more against President Macron
09:33and to participate in the government.
09:36But they know also that if there is a snap election, they probably will lose some seats.
09:44So they are really in a difficult position right now.
09:48Because they are not in the government anymore, they can vote more freely probably,
09:53but they are also losing influence in the government policy.
09:57So I think that there have been some rebellious members of the Republican group
10:03who voted the non-confidence motions tabled by the far right or by the left.
10:08And I think that the group will still be very divided as their electorate is very divided in the attitude that they should have towards Emmanuel Macron.
10:16And there's one party, of course, the far right, the National Rally, Marine Le Pen's party, who have been calling.
10:23They have said, we will topple every single government because this is simply a charade.
10:28It is time to go back to the French people. It is time to have parliamentary elections.
10:32That is, of course, because they are predicted to do extremely well in those elections.
10:36She is saying, don't be afraid of facing the people.
10:40How likely do you think it is that there will end up being early parliamentary elections?
10:46Well, a lot depends on if the far right is the National Rally vote every non-confident motion against the government.
10:54That means that the government is even more dependent on the Socialist Party,
10:59because last year when Marine Le Pen decided to not vote against Michel Barnier at first,
11:04the government was very dependent on the far right.
11:07And that is why he did not discuss very much with the Socialist Group.
11:11But now that the National Rally has pledged to vote against the government every time,
11:16pretty much everything depends now on the ability of the government to reach compromises with the Socialist Party
11:22without losing the support of the Republican Party.
11:25So right now the fact that the National Rally is completely and fully in opposition to the government
11:30means that the government really is forced to reach compromises with the former governing parties,
11:39the Conservative and the Socialists.
11:41And it is clear that if there is a snap election right now,
11:44the National Rally is probably the favourite to win maybe not an absolute majority,
11:48but at least a greater plurality of the votes and the seats in the National Assembly.
11:54If you look at the impact of all of this on the economy, first of all,
12:01how likely do you think that those pension reforms, which are only suspended,
12:05will eventually be put back as law?
12:10There's talk of this wealth tax.
12:13It is likely that France will be downgraded or it is probable, possible,
12:18that France might be downgraded again by ratings agencies.
12:21There's a lot of talk always, again, about France being ungovernable.
12:25You know, what happens to the economy?
12:28That is why the parliamentary deliberation on the Finance Bill and the Social Security Bill
12:33will be very difficult because there are some tough fiscal policies choice to be made.
12:38And if the pension reform is actually suspended,
12:42that means that the government and the right wing will want to compensate for this,
12:47for the costs of the suspension.
12:49And the right wing and the Conservative want to cut social spending.
12:54They want to raise medical costs and so on.
12:57And they want no more taxes on the wealthiest.
13:01That is the exact opposite of what the socialists want.
13:04They want more taxes on the wealthiest.
13:06And they want to protect the social spending for our soldiers.
13:10So it's going to be very tough to find the right balance to reach compromises between these two parties.
13:18And obviously the final budget will have to be voted by the National Assembly if the government does not use the Article 49.3 of the Constitution.
13:30So it remains to be seen what is going to come from this parliamentary deliberation.
13:35Probably there will be some trade-offs between the right wing and the left wing parties.
13:41But that will mean that we will see probably some austerity budget that will tax more the wealthiest,
13:51but also probably cut on social spending.
13:55Well, there really was a lot to unpack there.
13:58Thanks very much.
13:59Really, really useful context there.
14:01Thanks very much, Damien Lecomte of Paris Pantheon Sorbonne University.
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