00:00I thought I'd put together another quick update on what is happening with the situation with
00:04fertilizer due to this current Iranian situation and frankly it's not good. We've looked at the
00:12numbers over the weekend and I think we are potentially in for a bit of a world of pain
00:17in the coming months. First of all price, we analysed the updated pricing for our fair value
00:23model and it places urea in Australia above $1200 a tonne. One thing to be careful about when talking
00:31about that price is does that price actually exist? We're hearing a lot of farmers are getting told
00:35yep we'll give you a price but we can't honestly guarantee you the supply of that urea. So that is
00:43one thing. I do expect that when we update the prices throughout this week we will see higher
00:48prices being quoted. Second of all is the supply situation and I got a really good question on
00:54Twitter or X whichever you want to call it nowadays about the supplies and how much do we have in
01:00stocks. So we ran a couple of you know analysis on the stock numbers. There is no stock reporting so
01:06we've got to do a bit of guesstimation and based on you know the urea that comes into Australia by
01:12the
01:13end of March it's usually about you know between 15 or between 13 and 16 percent of our entire imports
01:19would arrive in the first three months of the year. So assuming that that is the case that we've had
01:25sort of average or normal imports we are expecting that that in combined combination with the stocks
01:31led over from last year which is probably relatively low we might and very optimistically we might have
01:3820 to 25 percent of our requirements. And this is a real key issue because we do have the import
01:45program really does take off from April onwards and if things don't get sorted quickly we are going to
01:52be in a supply situation which we haven't really experienced properly for a long time. And bearing in
01:59mind that you know 69 percent of our imports of urea in the last you know five years have come
02:07from
02:07Asia and whilst yes we can get it from Asia at a price everyone else is going to be competing
02:12for
02:12the same limited volume. So a bit of a bit of a world of pain at the moment we'll keep
02:17you apprised
02:18of it on the ACM newspapers but also episode3.net and this Instagram account. Again if you've got any
02:24questions let us know and we can we can delve into the numbers but also as well as that you
02:30know do
02:30as a do as a solid and share this around.
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