00:00Mike Tyson used to always say that everyone's got a plan until they get punched in the mouth.
00:04And I reckon that expression might be applicable to farmers this year.
00:08We've had high fertilizer prices, high diesel prices, in fact we've got lack of supply of fertilizer,
00:15and now we've got forecasts for El Nino.
00:18So at episode 3 we've gone back in time, we look back at the last 126 seasons of data
00:24and the years with El Nino in them to look at what impact does El Nino have on yields.
00:30On average, it roughly represents about a 15% on drop in yields from the expected yields for the area
00:40around it.
00:41So we look back at particular years, say 1903, what does yields compare to with the years around it?
00:48So we can take into account things like yield trends, technology, all that type of stuff.
00:51But it's what actually happens on a state-by-state basis is where we have the issues.
00:58So Western Australia doesn't have quite as bad of an issue.
01:02It has about a 29% chance of being below 20% expected yields,
01:09whereas New South Wales has about a 50% chance of being below expected yields.
01:15So it's another kick in the teeth for farmers that we've got this forecast, El Nino on the way,
01:21and that could be negative for our farming.
01:24So we wrote about this on episode3.net and they also got all of the ACM newspapers,
01:29stock and land, land, all those type of ones, where it goes into it in a state-by-state basis,
01:35everywhere from Queensland through to Western Australia.
01:38But again, another kick in the face, so to speak, and unfortunately not good news.
01:44Hopefully it doesn't form, but bear in mind that just because it's an El Nino
01:49doesn't mean it necessarily equates to yields dropping.
01:54We have had years where actually yields have gone up during El Nino,
01:57but the odds are stacked against you when an El Nino forms.
02:02So thanks for listening.
02:04Remember to share this around, like it, do all that kind of stuff.
02:08Thanks very much. Bye-bye.
02:09Bye-bye.
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