00:00So the attack on Iran, it's all over the news, but what does it mean for agriculture?
00:04First and foremost, crude oil prices are liable to increase, with some analysts expecting over
00:10$100 a barrel. That will flow through to energy prices. With energy prices increasing,
00:16expect our fair lives of prices to increase. Conversely, if we look back historically,
00:22you've got a correlation between crude oil prices and grain prices. If crude oil prices rise high,
00:28grain prices tend to. We spoke about that a lot on episode three and various different podcasts,
00:34but trust us on that. But there is the potential of that disconnect where we're paying for our
00:40inputs just now and a lot of farmers have got nothing left to sell for the previous year,
00:45so they might not get the full advantage of any rise because it could all be over by the time
00:50we
00:50harvest in November, December. So just a key one to watch is that disconnect between paying for our
00:56input prices versus selling our outputs. The key thing with this whole situation is how long does
01:01it last? The Strait of Hamas is currently closed. That's about 20 odd percent of the world's crude oil
01:07flows through that region. So it really depends on how far this escalates. Does it turn into a wider
01:14conflict that Iran has been trying to pull people in by the looks of it? And with the Ayatollah being
01:20dead, does that mean that we see, you know, peace come to that area or do we see anger and
01:27resentment
01:27grow? So keep an eye on it. It's all down to now. How long does the conflict last and what
01:33that,
01:34how that will drive the market?
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