00:00Do you feel that we're uniquely placed to be affected by this shock?
00:04I think we're in a weak position. The public finances are under very significant strain.
00:09The so-called fiscal headroom that the government has at the moment could be wiped away easily
00:15by increased inflation and increased servicing costs on our national debt that will follow
00:19as a consequence of that. So I'm afraid the government's really been taking the wrong
00:23choices. They shouldn't be taxing as much as they are, they shouldn't be borrowing as
00:26much as they are. They should be getting control of public spending, particularly the welfare
00:31bill, getting people off benefits and into work.
00:34And there's been some speculation that if oil stays at a sustained high or perhaps even
00:39goes higher to around 150, we could see a global recession. How proud do you think this is
00:44going to get?
00:44Well, I think it's difficult to speculate. Let's see where this war goes. I mean, if it
00:50is sorted out in the shorter term, then some of those scenarios won't play out. But clearly
00:55if you get up to $150 or even higher for a prolonged period of time, that it's going
01:00to be deeply difficult globally and also here in the UK. But you do need a resilient, strong,
01:06growing economy in order to effectively lean into those challenges. And I'm afraid the economy
01:11that this government has created is far from it.
01:13you
01:14you
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