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00:00But we begin on the gridiron where Geno Smith, at 35 years old, is looking for a new home.
00:06The Las Vegas Raiders cutting them loose after, of course, remember, the trade from Seattle to Vegas,
00:13signing a two-year, $75 million extension to play for his old pal Pete Carroll, who he was with in
00:20Seattle.
00:20Both of them are on the outs now.
00:22So, Smith released the Raiders opening up $8 million in salary cap space while taking on $18.5 million in
00:30dead money,
00:31as you can see in that tweet from Adam Schefter.
00:33There are more and more reports looming and surrounding this story among them.
00:40The Raiders, pardon me, still may be in the quarterback market beyond the obvious of,
00:45hey, they've got the number one overall pick off a 2-13 campaign for Geno Smith personally,
00:50where he led the NFL in interceptions.
00:53It was really just a dumpster fire of a season, unfortunately, in year one and the only year with the
00:58Raiders for Geno.
00:59So, everyone has assumed with that number one overall pick, the Raiders will go out,
01:03draft the reigning champion, reigning Heisman winner, Fernando Mendoza, out of Indiana.
01:09And I'd say that's a pretty safe assumption as things go right now.
01:13But the interesting report out of Diana Rossini from The Athletic earlier today
01:17is that the Raiders, again, could still be in the QB market as they may not want to start Mendoza,
01:23the, again, perceived number one overall pick, right away, even if they take him.
01:27So, they would still be looking for a quarterback in free agency to be something of a bridge QB,
01:32as you don't see oftentimes these days with number ones.
01:36For instance, Cam Ward started out of the gate last year as a member of the Tennessee Titans.
01:41But Drake May, who was the third overall pick in the draft the year prior by the Patriots,
01:46he didn't start until a decent chunk of the way into the year.
01:49It was Jacoby Brissett, the current Cardinal, who was the week one starter.
01:53So, not unprecedented, obviously, among top three, top five picks, let alone number one.
01:59Let's go over to the world surrounding Kalshi.
02:02We have been talking of late about the death of Hemeni, Ali Hemeni, of course, the supreme leader of Iran.
02:13Kalshi is facing backlash after refusing to pay out $54 million in bets tied to his fate.
02:21Kalshi says the rules do not allow markets that directly profit from someone's death.
02:25Kalshi, they closed the market, of course, at the last trading price instead of paying full winnings
02:30and refunded some fees. Kalshi treated the market like an invalid market,
02:35which has really rubbed many the right way, particularly those who stood to profit.
02:40When reports emerged that he had died, many trading holders holding, yes,
02:45shares believed that they had won a large payout.
02:47Kalshi froze the market, however, and voided the payout.
02:50So, having to deal with some of the backlash as it relates to that right now,
02:54I will remind people how sick and twisted all of this is,
02:56because, again, we are talking about the death of somebody and people wagering on it in the prediction market.
03:02But, again, that's where we are in the space right now.
03:05Going over to the NCAA and back to football,
03:09the NCAA is heeding the Supreme Court's ruling over Trinidad Chambliss,
03:15the preliminary injunction that is being appealed by the NCAA
03:21because it granted him eligibility for the upcoming 2026 season.
03:24In a nearly 700-page filing to the Mississippi State Supreme Court today,
03:30the NCAA is asking the court to overrule the injunction and expedite the ruling.
03:35Going over to the diamond, of course, baseball spring training is underway,
03:38but so is the World Baseball Classic.
03:39And Shohei Ohtani, who is just an absolute force of nature,
03:43the greatest baseball player these eyes have ever seen
03:47and probably in the history of the sport,
03:49went off for Team Japan against Chinese Taipei this morning early on.
03:5513-1 in only seven innings.
03:57Ohtani, three for four, a grand slam, seven total bases, five RBI,
04:02only missed the cycle by the triple.
04:06Japan 10 runs in the first and third, runs in the first and third, pardon me,
04:12and just, again, you have to consider Japan.
04:15As stacked as that United States roster is and some of the other teams,
04:19Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, some of the obvious ones to think about,
04:22Japan, do not count out this squad when you have Shohei Ohtani doing what he is doing
04:28on what feels like a daily basis.
04:30Now, basketball, huge news in the NBA as Jason Tatum,
04:35the superstar of the Boston Celtics, the return is looming.
04:38He is officially questionable to play tonight.
04:41First time he has had the Q tag all season long after rupturing his Achilles
04:46in a playoff series loss to the New York Knicks last May.
04:50Of course, has not played since.
04:51It's been 10 months.
04:52Sham Sharania, ESPN, tweeted yesterday that the return could happen tonight
04:58against the Dallas Mavericks as Cooper Flagg makes something of a homecoming.
05:02Of course, the Maine native has never played at the TD Garden in Boston,
05:05will have loads of family and friends in attendance, but Tatum right there
05:09to steal the spotlight with the expectation that he is going to play tonight.
05:13And Shams describing Tatum as, quote, ready to go.
05:18Now, props for this one for Tatum.
05:20At last look, only 12 and a half points.
05:23We don't have any details, but you have to assume that he will be on a minutes
05:27restriction in that first game in, again, roughly 10 months.
05:30So, 20, 25 minutes, probably at most something to consider.
05:35Sticking with basketball, last night, Victor Wemenyama, a future MVP in this league,
05:40albeit not this year, it's going to happen.
05:4238 points the Spurs handled the Pistons in what may have been an NBA Finals preview.
05:47121-106, the Spurs won.
05:49They covered his narrow two and a half point favorites.
05:51This is a game that we talked about liking the San Antonio side on the show
05:54just yesterday, about 24 hours ago.
05:57Wemby, again, monster performance, added 16 rebounds.
06:01De'Aaron Fox, almost 30 in the win as well.
06:03Cade Cunningham, who might be the MVP if SGA and Jokic don't meet the necessary games played.
06:1065 threshold, 26 points, 8 assists.
06:14As far as the Jazz go, they snapped a seven-game skid in Trey Young's debut for the Wizards.
06:21122-112, the loss for the Wiz.
06:24Young, though, 19 minutes, might be sort of a similar situation, obviously, to the Tatum news
06:32that we talked about in terms of minutes restrictions coming off of injuries,
06:34although Young, of course, had played at some point earlier this year.
06:38But 19 minutes, 12 points, couple rebounds, six assists.
06:41The Jazz won as four and a half point dogs on the road in that one.
06:45Ace Bailey, the rookie, 32 points.
06:47Let's hear from Trey Young.
06:51Oh, never mind.
06:53We keep going here.
06:53LeBron James breaking the NBA's career field goal record in a loss to the Nuggets.
06:59120-113.
07:00The Nuggets, with that victory, cover his three-and-a-half point home favorites.
07:05LeBron broke Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's record for career field goals in the loss.
07:0915,338 for LeBron now, finishing the game with 16 points,
07:14which is generally in the neighborhood of what he gives you night-to-night
07:17at this stage of his career, north of 40.
07:19Jokic, triple-double for, again, the maybe MVP.
07:2328 points, 12 rebounds, 13 assists.
07:26Jamal Murray also factored in with 28 points.
07:29The T-Wolves topped the Raptors at home.
07:31Anthony Edwards, many wondered would he play.
07:34He did, 22 points in that one.
07:36The Wolves won and covered.
07:37They were four-and-a-half point favorites in this game.
07:40Five straight victories for Minnesota.
07:42The Pelicans, in something of a tank fest at night, did crush Sacramento.
07:47133-123, a nice double-digit win there.
07:50The Pels covered as six-and-a-half point road favorites.
07:52Zion, Sadiq Bey, Trey Murphy, all at least 20 points in that victory.
07:57The Kings, worst in the NBA.
07:59Granted, they are decimated, that roster, by season-ending injuries.
08:03But still, 14-and-50 right now.
08:07And Russell Westbrook, we don't have time to play it for you, but went off on the media after the
08:12game.
08:12Obviously, he is not really enjoying what is going on in Sacramento.
08:15And those among the talking heads who are weighing in on all of that.
08:19Today, as mentioned, the NHL trade deadline moves being made throughout the day.
08:23Some of the bigger names to already change homes ahead of the 4 o'clock Eastern deadline this afternoon.
08:29The Ducks traded for veteran John Carlson from the Capitals.
08:3336-year-old D-Man, who was traded early this morning.
08:37And the Caps receiving a conditional first-round draft pick in 2026.
08:41Or 27, along with a 27 third-round pick.
08:45And he's getting up there in age, but the guy is still producing.
08:48Also, the Avalanche, who are the Stanley Cup favorites on the odds board.
08:51Acquiring Nicholas Waugh for a conditional first-round pick.
08:55As much more on the way here on Newswire for no one.
09:02We are halfway home here on Newswire on Sports Grid.
09:05Thanks for hanging with us.
09:06I am Adam Coffin, joined now by Sam McQuillan.
09:09Our friend from Legal Sports Report, a regular here on the program.
09:12Sam, good to see you.
09:13Good to be with you, Adam.
09:16So, let's get into some of the news.
09:17I know, you know, the two of us, we'd love to just keep talking about the Knicks-Nuggets game tonight.
09:21As we were backstage, but you wrote about two U.S. senators have introduced the End Prediction Markets Corruption Act.
09:29That happened just yesterday, which would bar top government officials from buying or selling contracts tied to the outcome of
09:36real-world events.
09:37We know, obviously, the prediction markets and real-world events with what happened in Iran.
09:41It's been a whole fiasco in terms of Kalshi and people chasing money, again, surrounding the, you know, death of
09:48an individual, let alone, you know, this isn't us wagering on the, you know, the trading on the side of
09:55who wins a game or who wins an Oscar or something like that.
09:58Again, real-world events.
09:59So, what do you make of this act and what's to come?
10:04Yeah, legislation is kind of just a product of where we are with prediction markets right now.
10:10I mean, it's a good question.
10:11It's, you know, prediction markets really started to take off about a year ago.
10:16They've been around for a long time, to be clear.
10:18They were very popular with the election and everything.
10:20But when they really started to take off was when Trump got into office.
10:23All of a sudden, Kalshi started offering sports bets.
10:27And that is now about, like, 85%, 87% of their business.
10:31So, to be clear, most of the activity that happens on these prediction markets, this is why you have all
10:37these lawsuits.
10:38You're talking about people being really concerned, senators mainly, about insider information being traded.
10:43You mentioned a couple of cases.
10:44There's about $500 million placed just before the Iran strikes over the past weekend on those strikes happening, which I've
10:54raised questions.
10:55Is there insider trading information being leaked?
10:57You know, anytime you're betting on the outcome of something to happen, when it's a government, you know, decision specifically,
11:05there's a concern about, you know, did someone in the White House talk to somebody?
11:08Did somebody's brother place something on it?
11:10When you talk about the state regulations that we have with sportsbooks, it's easier to monitor that stuff.
11:16They have a lot of robust regulations in place.
11:18The issue with prediction markets right now seems to be the CFTC is the one that's supposed to regulate this.
11:24But there's really nobody working at the CFTC.
11:26It's very understaffed.
11:28They really have not flagged any of these cases.
11:30So, what you have happen are these instances where you have these sketchy bets being placed.
11:35You know, you mentioned that the Kalshi had to refund bets placed on the Supreme Leader in Iran to be
11:42out by a certain date, clarifying that that's not a war market or an assassination market, which is technically prohibited
11:48under the law.
11:49But it's just the Wild West right now with the regulation, with all these kind of things.
11:52And I think senators are starting to use it as a political standpoint of, you know, we can maybe score
11:58some points by saying everyone's banned from doing this.
12:01And we'll see what happens with this bill.
12:03You know, I'd liken it to the criticism that happens a lot about senators betting on the stock market, which
12:10we know has not been able – they've not been able to pass that, in part because, you know, the
12:15people that that's affecting, they're the ones making those decisions.
12:18I don't think they want to do that.
12:19So, I wonder what kind of opposition we'll see here, given the fact that it's only really Democrats proposing this
12:25right now.
12:26The G and the Trump administration has been really embracive or embracing prediction markets and, you know, them as, you
12:33know, sources to find information faster than the news.
12:37Like, to these points, when you have insider information, we know kind of the news before it happens.
12:42But there's the sketchy part of that is why are people making millions of dollars off of the death of
12:47someone?
12:48So, I think lawmakers want to use this as an opportunity to kind of score some political points, rein everything
12:53in.
12:54But we'll certainly see how it develops.
12:56You know, you often have issues in politics that start one way and then they get completely thrown another way.
13:02On the prediction markets, things have been, that's not even with the sports factor in.
13:08So, it's definitely a really interesting story right now to keep watching how Washington's appetite for this stuff kind of
13:13develops.
13:14And, you know, just where their attention is right now with this stuff, because it's pretty crazy.
13:17Well, the Wild West, as you said, but I'm also just curious, not that you've got the crystal ball to
13:22be able to tell us,
13:23but I'm wondering what the future of all of this is inside the next year or two.
13:28You know, it's being looked at, being handled very differently than, say, gambling legalization,
13:32which, as we know, continues to spread from state to state to the point where eventually we'll get,
13:39I mean, we're basically, you know, roughly 80% of the way there as it is right now.
13:43But with prediction markets, you're seeing companies jump quickly to react to the popularity of this.
13:49Sportsbooks creating super apps.
13:52You know, Underdog this week laying off a quarter of the company.
13:55So, it can basically change a lot of the content direction into that of prediction markets.
14:01I mean, where are we heading here?
14:03Yeah, I really wish I could pull out my crystal ball and predict accurately the future and, you know,
14:10put money on it and see if I could win.
14:12But I just, I think the answer of where we're heading is more uncertainty.
14:17And in the short term, more companies, like you mentioned, trying to capitalize on that.
14:21When prediction markets first kind of took off this past year, there was a little bit of a hesitancy from
14:26sportsbooks.
14:27You mentioned DraftKings and their super app they're doing now.
14:29FanDuel's doing prediction markets.
14:30There was a little bit of a hesitancy to jump in saying, we don't know if this is exactly legal.
14:35We don't know what will happen with this stuff.
14:37But as the Trump administration has really embraced this,
14:40they are the ones who lifted a ban on Polymarket reentering the U.S.
14:44That's why Polymarket is back.
14:45Donald Trump Jr. is a board advisor to Kalshi and Polymarket.
14:51Trump's Truth Social platform is partnered with Polymarket.
14:56It's going to launch its own prediction market.
14:58So I think what we've seen is, as the White House and the executive branch has really said,
15:02no, this stuff is here to stay.
15:04The sports betting companies, the likes of Underdog, they've said, you know,
15:07this is actually going to save us a ton of money if we do this.
15:09We won't have to pay any state taxes on it.
15:12Underdog, you know, they got rid of, I think, like 300 people, a lot of their workforce.
15:16We can just really go into a much easier business.
15:19That's kind of what always the secret of gambling has been,
15:22is how do we do it for a really, you know, cost-effective way?
15:26If we don't call it sports betting, if we call it prediction markets,
15:29we don't have to pay gambling taxes, and we don't have to hire as many employees.
15:32So I think as long as the current administration is embracing this and supporting this,
15:37we'll see what the lawsuits, how they play out with the Supreme Court eventually.
15:40But as long as the executive branch is really embracing this,
15:43I think you're just going to see more people jump in and try to take advantage.
15:46But then in three years from now, we could have a totally different administration
15:49and the laws could be rewritten and completely changed.
15:52So you just never really know.
15:53I think the only sure thing is that in the short term,
15:56companies will try to make a lot of money out of it.
15:59Sam, you noted at the end of last month that Missouri sports betting handle
16:02fell about 30% in its second month, the revenue dropping about 50%.
16:08Online sports books issuing nearly $600 million in promo credits during the month of December,
16:14deductions that obviously, as you said once again, gutted taxable revenues.
16:18And so some states are always going to do better than others.
16:21Depends on the appetite, obviously, for gambling.
16:23And I'm sure the teams at whatever the sport that are part of those states,
16:28how rabid the fan bases are, these all come into play as well.
16:32But what do you make of the early struggles, failures, even in the state of Missouri
16:37as it relates to sports betting handle?
16:41Yeah, there's actually been a lot of good success for the sports betting companies
16:46in terms of how much people are betting in the state.
16:49It's just the tax system, which is kind of messed up right now.
16:52Missouri launched in December, but they've only made, like you mentioned,
16:55about $660,000 in taxes.
16:58And that's because the state allows these operators to deduct all the promos they're putting out
17:04from their taxable revenue.
17:06So you have a situation where a company like FanDuel, for example,
17:09took $200 million in a handle, paid out $166 million in winnings,
17:14but they also issued about $55 million in promotions,
17:17which means they got to write that all off of their taxable handle.
17:20And FanDuel hasn't paid any taxes in Missouri for the first two months.
17:23So when you're talking about the biggest sports betting company there is not paying taxes,
17:28the lawmakers are going to come back to the drawing board and say,
17:30okay, we need to get rid of these promo deductions,
17:32as we've seen a number of other states do as well.
17:35If this new law passes, which is being proposed in Missouri,
17:38they would have made about 57 times more in taxes
17:42than they've made already in the first two months.
17:43That's quite a difference.
17:45And I'm kind of surprised that they didn't have this to begin with.
17:48We kind of saw this early on in the sports betting,
17:50states realizing, oh, they're deducting a ton of promos.
17:53We're making no tax revenue that we projected.
17:56Let's go out and figure out a way to change it.
17:58I think Missouri, late to the game with sports betting, obviously,
18:00is late to the game as well with this tax change.
18:03But we'll have to see if it passes.
18:05All right, Sam, real fast.
18:06Your Knicks can get this done in Denver tonight?
18:09I think so.
18:10I would take the Knicks.
18:12There you go.
18:13See, he's not just giving you the legal news
18:15as it relates to sports betting and prediction markets.
18:19Sam McQuillan, Legal Sports Report.
18:21Thank you, sir.
18:21Talk to you again soon.
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