- 5 hours ago
Laporan Moody’s Analytics memberi amaran bahawa ekonomi berpendapatan tinggi Asia paling terdedah kepada krisis tenaga berikutan penutupan Selat Hormuz, menjejaskan aliran minyak global dan meningkatkan risiko inflasi, tekanan mata wang serta kejutan rantaian bekalan.
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00:00And we're going to start with this topic as Asia's high-income economies, which heavily rely on commodity imports, are
00:06particularly vulnerable to the direct economy fallout from the conflict in the Middle East, according to Moody's Analytics.
00:13It said in a statement on Monday that the conflict has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz,
00:18a major oil shipping route which raises the risk of further disruptions in the Red Sea and across the wider
00:24Middle East for Asia.
00:25As it buys, the lion's share of oil and gas produced in the region.
00:30And we have ready on the line to help us understand if this is David Stepard, Country Director, Singapore.
00:36I want to say thank you very much, David, for joining us.
00:40Firstly, with roughly a third of global C-bomb crude passing through the Strait of Hormuz, how quickly does a
00:46closure shift from being a market shock to becoming a real economic crisis for Asia?
00:53Thanks for having me, Nina.
00:55This already has moved from a price shock to a logistics shock.
01:00The crisis point is when ships cannot sail and refineries cannot plan.
01:04In normal scenarios, you would say days for prices to be impacted, weeks for supply and months for growth.
01:12But the latest reporting suggests we are already crossing from paper to physical.
01:17Iran has threatened ships in Hormuz, tankers have been hit, and a large number of vessels are anchored and stranded
01:24and not crossing the strait.
01:26So once insurers pull war risk cover and freight becomes uneconomic, importers do not just pay more, they struggle to
01:33even secure delivery windows and compatible grades of oil.
01:37That is why the timeline compresses.
01:39A few days of disruption is volatility, but two to three weeks becomes operational stress and one to two months
01:46becomes macro pain.
01:48And you will see this through inflation, trade balances and confidence in the market.
01:53The single best real-time indicator is not the Brent chart.
01:56It is whether shipping and insurance markets normalize.
02:00And we can also take a look at the Brent crude oil jump from around $72 to $80 almost immediately.
02:09Is the market reacting emotionally or is this a rational repricing of deeper structural risk?
02:18This is not panic.
02:20It's the market pricing war risk insurance into every barrel.
02:23It's a rational move because the market is repricing the probability of an extreme but plausible tail event, a prolonged
02:31disruption in the world's most important energy choke point.
02:35Brent has spiked up to about 13%, as you mentioned, and shipping disruptions is now part of the story.
02:41This is not just rhetoric, so you can actually see this in shipping costs.
02:45A key data point, war risk insurance premiums reportedly jumped from 0.2% to 1% of vessel value
02:54in the last 48 hours.
02:55And insurers are cancelling cover effective 5th of March.
02:59So that flows straight into delivered energy costs for Asia through freight, insurance, delays, even before you talk about actual
03:08shortages.
03:10Let's take a look at the other countries like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and even Hong Kong, which import
03:17more than 80% of their energy.
03:19Which of these economies is most exposed and why, David?
03:26Great question.
03:27So exposure is a triangle.
03:29It depends on import dependence, inventory costs, and how quickly cost passes through to households and the industry.
03:37On the latest reporting, India is being flagged as among the most vulnerable major importers because it relies heavily on
03:46Middle East crude and has only about 20 to 25 days of inventories, while China, for example, has built far
03:54larger buffers.
03:55Within your list, Japan is also structurally exposed because it imports about 95% of its oil from the Middle
04:02East.
04:02Although it has very large reserves, around 250 days.
04:08South Korea, on the other hand, sources about 70% of its oil and 20% of its liquid natural
04:15gas from the Middle East, with reported reserves of around 200 days.
04:20Taiwan and Hong Kong are less about strategic reserves and more about fragility and continuity and pass-through.
04:27Taiwan is particularly sensitive on gas for power if liquid natural gas flows tighten.
04:33And Hong Kong can see faster consumer pass-through through imported energy and logistics.
04:40And when we look at Singapore, Singapore is a market that imports almost everything and all of its energy.
04:46It has no meaningful domestic resources.
04:49Singapore is also the world's largest bunkering port, supplying around 54 million tons of marine fuel.
04:58Singapore may not be the first place to run out of energy, but it is where war risk, insurance, freight
05:04and delivery dislocation get priced into the cost of bunker, diesel, jet fuel and very fast.
05:13As you mentioned that China has a longer buffer period, which China also has a sizable reserves and buys discounted
05:19Iranian crude,
05:21which India is also reducing Russian oil purchases under its U.S. trade commitments.
05:26Does this crisis widen the strategic gap between Beijing and New Delhi?
05:32Good question.
05:34China has options and India has constraints.
05:38And this crisis makes that asymmetry even more visible.
05:43Reuters reported that China has a cushion, substantial reserves, as you mentioned, plus large Middle East sourcing.
05:51India, on the other hand, is reducing dependence on Russian oil purchases in the context of a U.S. trade
05:58agreement,
05:59with refiners avoiding Russian cargoes from April.
06:03So the gap can widen.
06:05Beijing can lean more on reserves and sanction supply channels,
06:09while New Delhi may need to compete harder for alternatives, often at higher cost, at exactly the wrong moment.
06:17This will create a little bit wider gap, as each of both countries have to maintain their interests.
06:23And if higher oil and gas prices push up inflation again, are Asian central banks now trapped between supporting growth
06:30and defending the price stability?
06:34Yeah, this is a stagflation.
06:37Energy makes inflation worse, while it also makes growth weaker.
06:41Japan is the most undernosed example here right now.
06:45I think the press is explicitly discussing risks of low growth and higher inflation.
06:50The yen weakens and the possibility becomes that the central bank is more cautious on near-term hikes if the
07:00shock persists.
07:01For the rest of Asia, if energy prices stay elevated and currencies come under pressure, central banks face a credibility
07:09choice.
07:10Tolerate a higher inflation and support growth or tighten it into a slowdown to anchor expectations.
07:18This trap is worse, where inflation expectations are fragile or where foreign exchange weakness feeds imported inflation quickly.
07:28So, to take Malaysia as an example, Bank Negara has recently said inflation should stay moderate in 2026,
07:36but it also flags how commodity price dynamics matter to the outlook.
07:40And that becomes harder if the energy shock persists.
07:45And as import bills rise and currencies weaken, could we see a renewed pressure on emerging Asian economies,
07:52which are already struggling with external debt?
07:57Yeah, oil shocks hit emerging markets twice.
08:00First in the trade balance and then in the currency and then the debt service bill.
08:07So, higher import bills widen current account deficits and risk of conditions can tighten financial conditions.
08:14The IMF has warned that a stronger dollar and higher rates would raise the debt servicing burdens in Asia,
08:21where costs as a share of revenue have been high.
08:24Layer on the current shipping disruptions and insurance withdrawal risk,
08:28and you can get a certain stop dynamic in the most fragile credits,
08:33weaker foreign exchange, higher refinancing costs, and more pressure to cut subsidies on public spending.
08:39Definitely more pressure will have a bigger impact.
08:42And if disruptions spread beyond the Strait of Homos into the wider Middle East and Red Sea,
08:47are we looking at another supply chain shock similar to the pandemic years?
08:53Yeah, it's probably not going to be a replay of the pandemic,
08:57but there could be things that rhyme.
09:01So, for example, we will see rerouting of shipments,
09:04we will see delays, cost inflation, and inventory stress.
09:09The pandemic shock was a demand and supply collapsing all at once.
09:14And this is more a choke point and security shock, but it can still cascade down.
09:19So, the Red Sea experience showed that when ships reroute around the Cape,
09:25delivery times can rise by 10 days or more, and supply chains can become less predictable.
09:31Now, at today's element, the war risk cover cancellations and damaged or stranded tankers in the Gulf.
09:38If both corridors are effectively impaired at the same time, you get compounding disruption.
09:44Energy availability, freight capacity, and insurance pricing all tighten together.
09:50Despite this is where the level we're at, but for ordinary households in Asia, including Malaysia,
09:56how does a conflict thousands of kilometers away ultimately show up in their daily lives and cost of living, David?
10:05Households feel it at the gasoline pump, on the power bill, and in food prices,
10:10because energy is the input into everything else, right?
10:14First, transport and logistics.
10:16Even if retail fuel prices are managed, the subsidy bill rises or future subsidy reform accelerates.
10:22Then electricity and gas link costs for businesses, which then pass through into goods and services, and food.
10:30Energy, freight, affects fertilizer, cold chain, distribution.
10:35Malaysia has been experiencing moderate inflation in 2026 so far under normal conditions.
10:41Policy reforms having a modest effect, and a prolonged global energy spike is exactly the kind of upside risk
10:49that can change the inflation conversation.
10:52So the hidden channel is confidence here.
10:54When energy and shipping become uncertain, households defer spending and businesses defer investment.
11:01All right.
11:02Definitely, this is a very good insight for us to understand how is the global geopolitics expanding,
11:08and we can see the impact is also getting riskier.
11:12Definitely, David, the closure of the street of Hormuz is a stark reminder of one reality.
11:17Much of Asia's economy engine runs on imported energy.
11:20And when a critical oil artery is disrupted, the impact doesn't stop at a spike in brand prices.
11:26It filters through, like you mentioned, inflation, currency, import business, and even supply chain disruptions,
11:31and ultimately into the daily cost of living.
11:34And a conflict thousands of kilometers away can quickly become a direct test of Asia's economic resilience, including leashes.
11:40Again, I want to say thank you very much to our guests for helping us understand this,
11:44and we hope to have this more discussion in the future.
11:46Thank you, David Stepat, the Country Director, Singapore, Devan Dzan Shira.
11:51Again, and definitely all of our discussion here will be featured in astroawany.com
11:54across all social media platform.
11:56Thank you, David.
11:56Thank you, David.
11:56David St
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