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00:00And right now, we are two minutes away from the end of the trading day.
00:03Romain Bostic here with Katie Greifeld, taking you through to that closing bell.
00:07It's a global cybercast. It started. Carol Masser and Tim Senevich join us now.
00:11Welcome to our audiences across all of our Bloomberg platforms, television, radio,
00:15and our partnership with YouTube as we continue to track the market movements on the tensions
00:20in the Middle East. What tensions? Look at the equity trade. It's like meh.
00:24I'm kind of shocked by it. I know the Treasury trade's a little bit of a different story,
00:28but kind of fascinating to actually see some slight gains, as little as they may be,
00:33on both the S&P and the NASDAQ, considering we have, you know, a war in the Middle East.
00:39Okay, well, I got something for you. How about WTI up 7 percent? Brent up 8 percent.
00:44We've got gold up 1 percent to $5,300 an ounce. So there's some movement in other parts of the
00:52market.
00:52Absolutely. I mean, take a look at the Treasury market.
00:5510-year Treasury yields higher by about 10 basis points. We were just having the conversation with
01:00Ed Yardeni, though. While that is a very sizable move when it comes to the benchmark Treasury rate
01:05here, I mean, we're more or less in the range that we've been in for several months here. So it's
01:10hard
01:11to get too excited. Yeah. Some of the moves here aren't extreme. You are seeing an extreme move in
01:15the dollar, euro dollar, having, at least for the dollar's perspective, having it's a best day going
01:21back to July of last year. And, of course, we have to pay attention to not just, of course, what's
01:26going on in
01:26oil. We had that huge pop that we saw in natural gas futures over in Europe, as well as actually
01:32a big pop in aluminum prices as well, also a commodity dependent on the Straits and Hormuz
01:38remaining open. We get the closing bells in New York. And after a big drop down, a 1 percent gap
01:44lower for the S&P 500, it looks like we're going to get in the day in the green ever
01:48so slightly.
01:49We're just going to call it unchanged. It takes a while for these numbers to settle.
01:52But the S&P will be up roughly about one or two points on the day. The Nasdaq composite is
01:57going
01:57to add about 80 points or about four tenths of one percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average,
02:01that's going to finish in the red, but only down about a tenth of a percent or so. And the
02:05Russell
02:062000, Katie, you pointed this out earlier, outperforming up about 23 points or about nine tenths of one
02:12percent. All right. So some outperformance there. As Romaine just mentioned, the S&P just a tad
02:18higher. Call it pretty much unchanged here. Dig inside, though, the index, Katie. And by the way,
02:22good to have you back. 240 names to the upside, 261 to the downside, 2 unchanged.
02:28I am thrilled to be back and tell you all about what the circle is doing today. It's very interesting.
02:32You have about four sectors finishing in the green, seven in the red, as you might expect. On a percent
02:39basis, energy, your big gainer on the day. As a sector higher by about two percent, though,
02:43from a points basis, it was tech. That sector rallying about nine tenths of a percent. In terms
02:48of what didn't perform, consumer staples, a big slide there, down about 1.4 percent,
02:53really speaking to the idea that it wasn't too much of a risk-off move today. The fact that staples
02:59were your big loser on the day. Consumer discretionary, though, also falling by about
03:03one percent. So, too, did health care, Carol. All right. So that's a look at some of the
03:09major industry groups. Let's go to some of the individual gainers, if I may, in terms of the
03:13S&P, not the S&P, the overall trade. Palantir, number three gainer in the S&P 500, number two
03:19gainer in the NASDAQ 100. As we know, a big government contractor. So riding that rally
03:25higher today because of Middle East tensions also being upgraded to buy from neutral over
03:30at UBS. It's the latest firm to turn more positive on the software company in the wake
03:34of its results. Again, Palantir up about 5.8 percent. Along those lines, let's take a look
03:39at the defense sector because we definitely did see a rally, really rallying, to be fair,
03:44over the past year as global tensions ratcheted higher. This new conflict in the Middle East
03:48giving traders another reason to invest in the sector. So we saw investors moving into Lockheed
03:53Martin up 2.8 percent. Also Northrop Grumman, a gain of 6 percent. And then you've also got
03:58RTX, the ticker there, that went up about 4.7 percent. Energy names also higher in today's
04:05session. We saw strong gains really around the world when it comes to energy names because
04:10of the Middle East tensions and, of course, continuing attacks from U.S. and Israel against
04:17Iran. So ExxonMobil up more than 1 percent. You had Chevron up about 1.5 percent. And APA
04:23Corp, that went up about 4.3 percent. And then I just want to mention one other name because
04:28we had three names moving as a result of NVIDIA agreeing to invest $4 billion in two companies
04:33that develop data center optics that are essential for artificial intelligence systems. So NVIDIA,
04:39that was up about 3 percent, those two companies. NVIDIA investing $2 billion apiece in Lumentum
04:43Holdings and Coherent Corp multi-year deals. And so you had Lumentum up about almost 12 percent
04:51there, Tim. And then Coherent, a gain of more than 15 percent in today's session. So yeah,
04:55some outperformance there. 10 gainers? I thought I did it rather quickly and efficiently.
05:01You did. You did. But I'm very impressed. I'm very impressed. I got three decliners for
05:06you guys. Well, we can call them all the airlines. How's that? Down 2.5 percent today.
05:11This is the composite airlines index for the S&P 1500. So everything was actually in the red
05:17today when it came to airlines in the United States from Alaska, Southwest, Delta, SkyWest,
05:22United to American, Sun Country, Allegiant and JetBlue. You did have airlines take a hit today.
05:29This not just on tensions around the world and some airlines, including United, cutting off
05:35certain routes through the Middle East, like JFK to Tel Aviv and Delta doing that as Delta rather
05:42doing that, but also higher fuel prices and what this means for demand when it comes to actually
05:50people traveling around the world. Our Bloomberg intelligence team writing that a prolonged U.S.
05:54Iran engagement will reduce U.S. airline first quarter profits, especially for the large
05:58international carriers such as Delta, United and American. Airlines as a whole down 2.6 percent.
06:05Also, speaking of travel, Norwegian cruise line holding falling today. The company out and saying that
06:10full year net yields will be little change due to execution missteps in its commercial and deployment
06:15strategy. The company forecast earnings that came in below the average analyst estimate. The company
06:20also facing pressure from activist investor Elliott Investment Management disclosed a stake of more
06:25than 10 percent and criticized management decision and spending. Cruise stocks as a whole fell today,
06:31not just over what happened with Norwegian, but also oil prices surging the most in four years as a
06:38result of those military strikes. And finally, in the S&P 500, the worst performer, AES Corporation,
06:44BlackRock, global infrastructure partners and EQT agreeing to buy AES for about $10.7 billion in cash.
06:50They're going to pay $15 per share for AES. That's below Friday's closing price because this news had come
06:57out last week, but shares today fell, Romaine, by close to 18 percent.
07:02I do want to just check in on yields because when we talk about the big moves that we had
07:07in the cross-asset space and how most of those moves faded, the move in yields actually did stick.
07:12You're looking right now, you have a 30-year yield that on a points basis having the biggest one-day
07:17increase since January. On the two-year, the biggest one-day gain since October. And on the 10-year,
07:24the biggest one-day gain going back to June. And a lot of that has to do less with the
07:28geopolitical
07:29aspect of it specifically. But of course, the ripple effects, the idea of a potential
07:33inflationary effect here and the idea, as some folks have already said publicly, that the Fed
07:38ain't going to do anything anytime soon, no matter what the outcome of this happens to be over the
07:44next couple of weeks. Yes, certainly. An already complicated picture for the Fed gets a little bit
07:48murkier here. Meanwhile, earnings season continues to roll on. Let's quickly talk about what we're seeing
07:54come out of MongoDB reporting that fourth quarter adjusted EPS actually beat estimates coming in at
08:00$1.65. The estimate had been for $1.48. Also beating when it comes to fourth quarter revenue coming
08:08in just above $695 million. The estimate had been for $670 million. So, you know, another reminder that
08:17the world keeps spinning and certainly the engine of corporate America continues here, Carol.
08:22Yeah, and a name down that's already down about 22 percent here in 2026. Hey, let's go to kind of
08:28some of the bigger, broader themes. And I think about the conversation Lisa Obama had with Jamie
08:32Dimon, CEO, of course, of JPMorgan Chase. And he talked about more optimism being out there in the
08:39market than there should be, given all the risks. He talked about kind of warning that there's a lot of
08:43complacency in the market, that inflation is one of the risks. He calls it the skunk at the party.
08:49And he thinks that the probabilities of something going south are more than other people think and
08:53that inflation will cause the economic downturn. I feel like there is momentum. I think of Lloyd
08:58Blankfein, again, making a reference to the great financial crisis. Jamie Dimon has done that. There's
09:03a lot of people and they're not quite sure, not necessarily pointing full heartedly at private
09:08credit, but watching the credit space overall. Yeah, one of those people, Danny Moses, joined our
09:13program in the two o'clock hour. You know him from The Big Short and Moses Ventures, Romain, but he's
09:18been one to talk a little bit about concern when it comes to private credit, the opacity there, and
09:23if there is going to be a shoot or drop from private credit. And we kind of forget, you know,
09:27too, in addition to the big conversation we've been having about private credit last week, we're also
09:30talking about the issues going on in the AI space with high valuations and the borrowing going on in
09:35there. You're throwing geopolitics over it. But we've seen this before, right? I mean, anytime you have,
09:40you do eventually get to that point where you do have that big crash or whatever you want to call
09:44it,
09:45it's never really slow. I mean, most people are going to continue buying, continue to try to make money as
09:49long as they can. And that's probably what you're seeing right now. It's not that people aren't aware of those
09:53cracks, but until they really feel that that that day of reckoning is actually here, why would why would you
10:00pull back meaningfully? Yeah, it's interesting. I mean, I feel like at any point in time, you can make the
10:04case that
10:05markets look a little bit complacent. We do have such an interesting confluence of factors at this
10:10time. What is a little bit different, it feels like, versus past episodes in the past couple of
10:15years is the fact that you are seeing a rush for havens, at least when it comes to what we're
10:21seeing
10:21in gold, for example. So it's not like people are buying risk and that's it. There still is that demand
10:27for some of those safer assets. And speaking of volatility, the VIX hitting 25 today, but finishing
10:32around 21. So we did see a little bit of a move up there.
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