00:00The U.S. used to be the undisputed center of world trade, not anymore.
00:04And for global trade as a whole, that might be a good thing.
00:07Let's talk about Trump real quick.
00:09America's trade decline started long before he took office.
00:13But his protectionist policies, especially in his second term, have only accelerated the U.S. fall.
00:19U.S. trade with the rest of the world fell more in the third quarter of 2025 than it did
00:24from 2014 to 2024.
00:26And U.S. container imports are down since Trump took office the second time.
00:31But the rest of the world didn't follow Trump's protectionist lead.
00:35Nations reacted by trading more with each other.
00:38Trump's tariffs against Beijing in 2018 pushed Chinese exporters to target other markets in Southeast Asia, Africa, Europe, and Latin
00:48America.
00:48As a result, China's trade surplus only continues to grow, even with Trump's new round of tariffs.
00:55What's even more interesting is how many other countries are now trading record amounts beyond the U.S.
01:01Like Brazil, Chile, and Argentina.
01:04And countries are trading more with their regional neighbors, as they slowly diversify away from an unreliable U.S.
01:12You can see here that since 2000, regional trade agreements between countries around the world have more than quadruple.
01:20But only a few involve the U.S.
01:22The U.S. is still a massive economy, and some countries, like Mexico and Canada, remain highly integrated.
01:31But the shift is a big deal, and growth in global trade now relies heavily on economies in East Asia
01:38and Africa, not the U.S.
01:41When countries diversify their supply chains away from the U.S., they're less susceptible to shocks, and commercial ties historically
01:48reduce the risk of armed conflict.
01:51But for the U.S., the shift means less global influence, lower defenses against local economic shocks, and a poorer
01:59nation in the long term.
02:01Trump and current U.S. trade policy might be good for the rest of the world in the long run,
02:06just not the U.S. itself.
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