00:00Mark, you talk about this being largely about oil, right, for Trump. If we get into a situation where
00:04there is a replacement of the regime with one that's a little bit more friendly to the U.S.
00:10and to the West, does that reshape American power over global oil flows?
00:17Heidi, absolutely. And I think this is what it's all about, actually, because if in the future Iran
00:23is an American ally, Americans will be directly and indirectly kind of influencing about a half of
00:31all the world's oil production. And as you know, most of Iran's oil that it exports is going to
00:38China. So there are huge geopolitical implications to this. And I agree completely with what you say.
00:47I think that many countries are probably struggling right now to know how to respond,
00:51like Saudi, Turkey, Egypt, but of course, also Russia and China.
00:58There are so many flow on effects to ride and a lot of it depends on what happens with this
01:02conflict
01:03from now. Are there going to be American boots on the ground? You say that we're very close. Well,
01:07with the closest that we've been right for a long time when it comes to regime change.
01:10Is that a risk that you're looking at as being likely at this point? Because it would from the
01:17outset look like it needs a lot of more U.S. input to get to that point.
01:22Yeah, it's hard to know because, I mean, the estimates are that some 30,000 people were just
01:27killed in those protests in Iran. So you'd have to be a very brave person to go out on the
01:32streets
01:32right now. And I think that the people who would go out on the streets are actually being told to
01:37stay inside by the Americans because the attacks are continuing. So we'll see in a week or two if
01:43people do that. But ultimately, I think it would be in the armed forces if you see those kind of
01:50falling apart. And we know the Americans and the Israelis are reaching out to many people in them
01:56through telegram and various other means offering money and amnesty. Anyway, if the armed forces and
02:03even the Revolutionary Guard individuals there start to basically leave, then I think the whole thing
02:11could fall apart very quickly.
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