00:00Well, how off-sides would this market be if there were truly a stagflationary shock,
00:03given the fact that there seems to be comfort with the idea of disinflation right now?
00:07Well, I think that's true, but I think that was true before this war.
00:10So if you look at, you know, my view is that the price, the asset price is kind of high,
00:13credit prices are kind of low.
00:15There's kind of a lot of complacency in the market.
00:17I'm not sure, you know, we look at risk.
00:18We look at the broad range of outcomes, and there are negative outcomes,
00:22but one of them would be, you know, inflation.
00:25I call it, that's the skunk of the party.
00:26So it's been coming down, but it seems to maybe have leveled off around 3%.
00:30If things make it go up, and this is only one thing, you know,
00:33you can look at medical prices, construction prices, insurance prices, wages for certain things,
00:39other things, you know, inflation is a big thing.
00:41It's not just oil.
00:43So, you know, we'll see.
00:44Right now this will add a little bit, literally a teeny bit to inflation, not a lot.
Comments