00:00Are you surprised that the market has been so sanguine to any kind of response or any kind of geopolitical
00:05disruption?
00:06Hi, Lisa. Hi, Bloomberg.
00:09Not really.
00:10So one of our brilliant folks wrote a report years ago, Mike Semblis, that you look at all these wars
00:15around the world since World War II.
00:17The market reacts, but it never had a real long-term effect other than the Israeli conflict where the oil
00:24crisis tripled and went on for an extended period of time in 1973.
00:28So the world kind of takes its stride, but geopolitics is a major issue.
00:33It's much more complex today than it has been since World War II.
00:37I'm talking about Ukraine, Russia, Iran, North Korea are related with China, and that could have an effect, but it
00:43may not.
00:43So these things may diminish over time.
00:46You know, this war with Iran, you know, if it's short and oil goes to 80 or 90 or 100,
00:52but it's a short time, not prolonged, it probably won't have a major effect.
00:55If it becomes prolonged, then all bets are off the table.
Comments