00:00What I would say in the circles, you know, four words can describe the oil markets we have seen.
00:06We have seen the sticky 60s. We have seen the slippery 70s.
00:11Now we are seeing the elusive 80s and the missing 100.
00:15And what I've been talking, and there are strong reasons to believe,
00:20and that's why the market has not reacted like a lot of people talked about,
00:25there is no reason for market to go to 100.
00:28I believe there is a lot of Hormuz myopia happening in the market,
00:33where there are so many other important factors, and I can go into 10 factors,
00:38but probably I'll limit to one or two or three a little later.
00:42So I guess the market has reacted in the right and the measured way, and this was expected,
00:47and that's what in the previous programs I was calling that U.S. will take action when Hormuz is Iran
00:55-proof.
00:55Iran is not blocking the Hormuz because they can, because they can't.
01:00That's my view, and that's why the oil prices are now at 76.
01:07Can you explain a little bit more on the no Hormuz blockage scenario?
01:12We have seen that oil tankers, I think, have voluntarily decided to divert their routes away from this waterway right
01:20now,
01:20just for now.
01:21It seems like this is more kind of self-imposed than something that you're hearing from Iran.
01:27One, I believe that this is self-imposed, certainly.
01:32Plus also a very important factor to note is that U.S. gave enough time to a lot of those
01:38countries in the Gulf to evacuate.
01:40We have seen even Iran sending, instead of 1.2 million barrels per day, 2 million barrels oil out before
01:48this happened.
01:49If you look at the gasoline, which has touched maybe 14 million barrels out, which was probably around 8,
01:55same story for diesel, same story for all the products, is the product markets which feels the brunt the most.
02:01So I guess a lot of oil was already evacuated.
02:05Now it's a precautionary, and also no insurance, probably companies ready to do it.
02:11And it is a good thing because this might lead to some, you know, environmental sort of disasters.
02:17So this is not blockage because, in my view, Iran, if they had the ability to do it, they would
02:24have done it.
02:25So I don't think it's just a temporary thing.
02:30Mukesh, I'm not sure if you heard.
02:31We were just speaking with our colleague and our co-anchor in Dubai, Jomana, just now.
02:38The new element here seems to be the reaction, the strong reaction coming through,
02:42not just out of the Saudis, but also out of the Emirates, the UAE.
02:47That is the new element here.
02:48How does that dovetail into your oil price forecast?
02:52Well, it perfectly dovetails because let's look at it.
02:57Saudis have not been attacked, I believe, and Russia or China, there is no entanglement.
03:04So I believe the war in some ways over.
03:07It is now a war within Iran that's happening.
03:10And Iran is probably finding a way out to stop the hammering which is going from U.S. and Israel.
03:17So what is the best place to strike in the Gulf?
03:20It is Dubai.
03:21It is UAE, which is the financial capital in the Middle East.
03:24And that might put pressure on the U.S. and other players to put pressure on Iran to stop it.
03:31So I think this is a bit of a fight by Iran in desperation.
03:35The main objective of the U.S.-Israel is done with the neutralization of the leadership in Iran.
03:42So in my view, the war is kind of over with the big news.
03:46And now I was hearing the news that Trump has probably three names of the future succession.
03:51So let's just wait when this news comes out and things would probably will be a little bit more calmer
03:57from here.
03:59OK, so you mentioned sticky 60s, missing $100 oil.
04:05Mukesh, just just give us a forecast that the next three to six weeks or months even where you see
04:11these oil prices going here.
04:13Because, you know, most people are thinking maybe I need to still attach about a $20 premium on the price
04:19of crude right now.
04:22So it's hard to predict wars, but it's not hard to build a strong conviction and a bias.
04:27And my bias is that one, we are in February and March.
04:31We are not in July and August, which is the peaks, you know, summer demand months.
04:35So in that sense, if this would have happened in July and August in the northern hemisphere summer, yes, oil
04:42prices could have gone above.
04:43So my call, which I've been consistent is, you know, 80s is the top end, hundreds, maybe one or two
04:49days.
04:49It might go for some strange, miscalculated, fake news that might come out.
04:54And also, I believe now the market is not reacting because there is so much of AI generated news that's
05:00taking place.
05:00So I'm not calling for a big oil price spike because we are in February.
05:05There is enough. China, which is the biggest buyer of oil, is already bought a lot.
05:11And they are busy actually transferring oil from the water to the sea.
05:15The floating storage near China is quite high.
05:17And I will also say to some extent that the closure of Hormuz is probably not happening any time.
05:29And this precautionary would be over quite soon.
05:32So in that sense, the moment we hear, let's say, the transition government in Iran,
05:37and this is a series of things which is very important to note.
05:41After Venezuela, Iran, and now Russia, Russian oil continues to flow to India and to other parts of the world.
05:48So there are enough reasons. The market is well supplied.
05:51And OPEC, if it was so worried, they would have brought 400, they brought 200.
05:56I think that gave a calm to the market that there is no need for panic.
06:01And that's why I believe that we will stay very soon, come back to the 70s and the elusive 80s,
06:07and the 100 would still be missing.
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