00:00Joining us here on set, Jason Lui, head of APAC Equity and Derivative Strategy at BNP Paraba.
00:04Good morning. Very nice to see you, sir.
00:06What do you make of the price action so far?
00:08I think to both of your point, what is interesting to note is that it's relatively well-contained in terms
00:13of that transmission mechanism.
00:15Obviously, we've seen energy price reacted the most because that's the most immediate asset that has been impacted as well
00:21as the precious metal.
00:22What is also encouraging, at least at early science, is that it seems that the currency market and the equity
00:27market are relatively well-contained.
00:29So I think ultimately, at the moment, the market is trying to watch the duration of that conflict because it
00:35seems that there's still a lot of unknowns happening in the market right now.
00:38And so we're taking cues from the commodity market trying to see how long this conflict will drag on.
00:43And we also saw that from oil, for example, it came back a little bit from that intraday high as
00:47well.
00:47So it seems that the market is still trying to digest the severity and the duration of this conflict.
00:53And geopolitics usually, you know, the moves that we've seen across markets tend to fade quite fast.
00:58Do you get a sense that this is a bit different this time, given that not just the impact on
01:02oil markets, there's also this kind of impact on inflationary,
01:06whether this could lead to some sort of inflationary shock that, you know, the Fed can't really do anything, just
01:11given what we've been seeing with this conflict, if it continues to persist longer?
01:15Does it feel different a little bit more than previous conflicts that we've dealt with?
01:18I think the timing of it certainly complicates the matter, because if you look at the U.S. market before
01:23the latest development, we've already seen some softness, especially in the credit space.
01:28And I think the interest rate market also reacted like you saw the long-end interest rate actually gone down
01:32for the past week or two in anticipation for some of the softness.
01:36Whereas in Asia, what is unique this time is that we are not necessarily taking all the U.S. input.
01:40If you look across Asia, you have Japan having a strong story when it comes to how Prime Minister Takeishi
01:45can run the government.
01:47You have seen very strong demand in Korea and Taiwan.
01:49And also, even within the China, Hong Kong space, you have also pockets of opportunity, which is quite different than
01:56some of the previous episodes.
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