00:00This is a, once again, a historically strong division, and the ALEs, people make big moves,
00:07and there are big swings and impact players being added to the division every winter,
00:13and it's just life in this division. So I think we made several ourselves. I think we're right
00:18in the thick of things. I think this division up and down is going to be really tough,
00:22as it always is, but we enjoy it. So that was Mike Goliath talking about the ALEs
00:28and their expectations, and if you care about these things, the Orioles are playing
00:31the Atlanta Braves, spring training baseball, trail 2-0 in the fourth inning.
00:35Keegan Aitken gave up a couple runs. Kate Povich, two shutout innings.
00:38Alas, expectations, and what do we expect from this Orioles team, and how much pressure
00:47are they under, and what would we constitute a successful season?
00:54Well, Jason Stark, who covers MLB for the Athletic, he did everybody's favorite, the unnamed executives
01:02and former execs and all of these. So it was 36 guys, and the Orioles came in in fourth
01:10under the teams, front offices, managers, under the most pressure. And make no mistake about it,
01:17the O's absolutely have a lot of pressure on them coming off an extremely disappointing year.
01:23And you can go back to 2022, where they had all these come-from-behind wins, they were ahead
01:31of schedule, didn't make the playoffs, but finished with a winning record, and that was
01:36when Mike Goliath gave the liftoff quote. And 2023, it was the magic carpet ride, you're
01:43vastly exceeding expectations, winning 101 games, but you flame out in the ALDS against the Rangers.
01:51Then you come back, you start off 2024, awesome, and then the second half was a nightmare.
01:57So each of the past three years, we've seen the Orioles' win total decline. And that necessitated
02:04Mike Goliath to operate much differently than he had been. And he did. The Orioles spent a ton
02:13of money this offseason, $213.5 million. Only in the Phillies, Blue Jays, Mets, and Dodgers
02:19spent more. You gave out the big deal to Pete Alonzo. This rotation is much, much better.
02:26And this is also an interesting point in where this roster is, where Adley Rutschman, he only
02:33has one more year arbitration eligibility after this season. Gunnar Henderson, only two more years.
02:38So this, to me, Ken, is going to be such a telling season, not just for Mike Elias, but
02:46for this whole young core. Because things are going to look a heck of a lot different next
02:51year, when the lockout happens, and that's going to be a janky season. And then you have
02:56some of these guys that are going to be up for free agency soon after that. So their win
03:01total, 84.5 wins. My expectation is this. If they don't make the playoffs, and if they
03:08don't win the wild card round, that's a big disappointment for me.
03:14Yeah, I think bare minimum is postseason. And then beyond that, remember, as you just alluded
03:21to, they have not yet, not even a series. They haven't won a playoff game. They've hardly
03:26had leads in the playoffs with this group. And they're going to show us this season whether
03:34last year was a bump in the road or a trend. And does it start going again that way early?
03:44I don't think it will. But sure, it could happen. And obviously, the injury concerns are
03:49early this season. We'll see. Sorry, they got a little frog in my throat.
03:53And choked up talking about the birds. Yeah, you know, the Orioles are very special
03:57to me. So they get me a little bit in my feels. But do they prove that last year was
04:06the outlier
04:07or is that who they are? Well, I think that's a great point because when we were having on
04:12various beat guys and we were asking them that, like, is this just who these players are?
04:19Like a Colton Couser, where last year was was a nightmare for him. And obviously,
04:23injuries played a big role. Adley Rutschman, it's been a year and a half where he just hasn't
04:28been the same guy. Like, is that who those guys are? Or are they going to buck the trend
04:35this year? And that's going to go an extremely long way in determining where this team finishes.
04:41Yeah, I think, you know what? It's funny. And I'm just going to talk out loud here.
04:45We do bounce back, fall back. And I don't mean to do it in the way we usually do it.
04:50But
04:51at some point, I think in the next couple of weeks, we should talk about these guys like
04:56Adley Rutschman. Does he bounce back? Or is this who he is? Jordan Westberg. Do we bounce
05:02with Jackson? Like because that is going to be a lot or a big part of whether this story
05:11goes to the postseason or it ends premature? Maybe it's not premature. Maybe it's who they
05:16are. But I think this young core who is not as young as they used to be, if they don't
05:22show again
05:23what we thought they were, then maybe they don't get to where we think where we thought they'd be
05:29in the first place. Well, and does that cause for even more drastic measures from Mike Elias and
05:36maybe somewhat blowing up this core that we thought that they had? And you saw a tiny bit
05:43with that this offseason trading away Grayson Rodriguez. Like that was different for Mike.
05:48He hasn't traded a guy that had that level of, you know, where he was as a prospect where Grayson
05:55Rodriguez was at one point the highest rated starting pitching prospect in all of baseball.
06:01And you traded that guy and that could burn them. But do you see more of those moves if
06:07these guys proved to not be who we thought they were? Yeah, I thought he made, well, he did three
06:12things this offseason that he hasn't done before. One was the Grayson Rodriguez trade where they traded
06:18a guy that they usually hang on to these guys. And he, and, and that signaled to me that they
06:23think
06:24his arm is shot and he could prove them wrong. Sure. Which, and they have not had a good read
06:28on
06:28injuries sometimes. Number two was the Shane Boz trade because I think they traded guys they
06:34actually coveted in that deal. And he doesn't, he's not want to do that. Even the Corbin Burns
06:41trade, he could talk himself into the fact there was no way for Joey Ortiz to play and DL Hall
06:46was
06:46a belief pitcher. So that those guys didn't hurt him to trade. I think the, I think the Shane Boz
06:52trade
06:52stunk. And then Pete Alonso giving him five years, $150 million plus. He had not done that before.
06:58So was a lot of what he did similar ish maybe, but he did three things that I don't think
07:06we've
07:06seen him do before. No. And, and really I'll even add to it. He operated with a heck of a
07:12lot more
07:12urgency. It's not like he was waiting until February, like in the past or late January,
07:17like those moves that they were making were December. And it was one thing after another
07:22where the birds come the winter meetings. They were the most active team in free agency at that
07:27point. Now he, he, he didn't close on Ranger Suarez. He didn't close on Frambois Valdez.
07:32And then he pivoted to Chris Bassett who is consistent, but he isn't the upside that those
07:38guys are. No, that was the one area that was disappointing for the off season because when,
07:45when he was bringing them up frontline starter, bringing up ownership, willing to spend into
07:50the red considerably like that's and Frambois going for just a three year contract, like
07:57I get it. I get P I was bummed. We all were bummed. The fact that they didn't get that
08:02frontline
08:02guy, but all in all, this was a pretty good off season by Michael eyes, but now we got to
08:08see a playoff.
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