00:00All right, let's start it off here.
00:02Who do you like in Super Bowl 60 this afternoon?
00:05You know, I'm going with the favorites here.
00:07Seattle Seahawks, minus four and a half.
00:09You know, I know it's a big one.
00:10I'm hearing a lot of the trends.
00:12Underdogs have been covering like crazy for, you know, more than a decade at a pretty consistent rate.
00:16But there's a lot of other trends that are out there that don't vote as well for the Patriots.
00:21One is that strength of schedule.
00:22I mean, they have faced a pretty weak strength of schedule.
00:25We've seen in the playoffs they have faced some really good defenses,
00:27and they've had a hard time moving the ball against them.
00:30They've also gotten lucky.
00:31They got to play against Jared Stidham.
00:32They got C.J. Stroud throwing four picks.
00:35If they don't get those bad quarterback performances,
00:38I don't think they're going to be able to keep pace here.
00:40And one of the trends I really like that kind of points things towards the Seahawks
00:43is that teams that don't cover in the conference championship game
00:47play against teams that do cover in the conference championship game
00:51are 2-12 ATS all-time.
00:54So teams that underperform in the conference championship game
00:57against teams that perform up to expectations
00:59tend not to win, tend not to cover.
01:02So that's something where I really like the Seahawks in this spot.
01:05And I just think they're a little bit more balanced.
01:07And I think that defense is just incredible.
01:09It gets both the run and the pass.
01:10And they're going to bring a ton of pressure against Drake May,
01:14who's been getting absolutely clobbered in the playoffs.
01:16Roy, what do you think are some of the most compelling props in this game going into it here?
01:23I mean, you know, like you said, some people think that if you have a low-scoring ball game,
01:28you know, that's going to favor the Patriots.
01:30If it's a high-scoring game, that's probably going to favor the Seahawks here.
01:33But some compelling prop bets that you could make in this game this afternoon.
01:37Yeah, I mean, I think one of the biggest ones, and I've been betting it for, you know,
01:41the entire playoffs, it's been worked out really well,
01:43is kind of looking at whoever, you know, whoever the Patriots are playing against
01:48in terms of the sack leaders, the best pass rushers, and betting on them to get a sack.
01:52You know, Patriots have been, you know, allowed five sacks in every playoff game.
01:56It's usually the top pass rushers in the other team getting to Drake May.
01:59You know, he's a good quarterback.
02:00He's got good mobility.
02:02But he holds on to the ball a long time while his receivers are trying to get open.
02:06They're going to have a hard time getting open against the Seahawks' pass coverage.
02:09And there's a few good pass rushers out there for Seattle.
02:11So Byron Murphy's a big one.
02:14He's probably the biggest Pro Bowl snub in the league, I think.
02:18And you can get him, you know, plus 150, plus 170 to pick up a sack.
02:22So that's either half a sack or a full sack or more.
02:24And that's pretty good plus money for a guy that's one of the best interior pass rushers in the league.
02:29Going up against probably Jared Wilson, who is likely the weak link in that New England offensive line.
02:35So a lot of reasons to kind of like that angle here.
02:38But there's a few other Seahawks players as well.
02:40Demarcus Lawrence, of course, who's been getting a lot of sacks over the last month or so.
02:45And also the team props, Seahawks over sacks, that sort of thing as well.
02:49So lots of angles to like from the defensive side of things, even if you do think this is going to be a lower scoring game.
02:55How about this, too?
02:56I mean, you know, last year, Milton Williams, I believe he had two and a half sacks in that Super Bowl a year ago against Kansas City.
03:04If they are able to get pressure on Sam Darnold, and that defense does step up, could that be a guy also maybe on the other side, Milton Williams, that you might want to drop some ducks on?
03:16Absolutely.
03:16And I think there's a lot of value on those Patriots players as well.
03:19I hit on a Kalevan chase on prop a few weeks ago, too, because those guys can also bring a lot of heat.
03:25And the Super Bowl is one of those games where it's everything's on the line.
03:29You're going to have quarterbacks, you know, when they're down, when they're trying to make big plays, just sitting in the pocket and, you know, trying to make those big plays.
03:35And a lot of those sacks can happen, especially when you're in a deficit or trailing and trying to make big plays happen.
03:41And so, you know, sack props on either side are great in the spot.
03:45Another thing I really like, too, is because both of these teams have been phenomenal against the run.
03:49And, you know, looking at some of the under-rushing props out there, you know, Kenneth Walker, I think his number opened at like 76 and a half, 77 and a half.
03:57It's bet down to about 72 and a half at a lot of books.
04:00So a lot of money coming in on the under there.
04:02And, you know, he's going up against a really strong Patriots run defense.
04:05They haven't allowed a single running back to gain 30 yards against them in their last, you know, five games.
04:10And you're looking at, you know, a Seahawks offense that if they can't get the ball moving on the ground, they will pass it through the air.
04:16So nice reasons to like the under there.
04:19Also, you know, maybe the under on the Patriots running backs because I certainly haven't been impressed with Ramondre Stevenson in the, you know, against the Broncos.
04:27I think he had something like 20-some carries, but he only had like 70 yards, had a hard time finding room.
04:32And I do think they're going to try to get Treveon Henderson the ball a little bit more in this game.
04:36So lots of ways to kind of fade both offenses in this game, even if you're not completely sold on which side to bet.
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