- 7 minutes ago
Seth and Sean are joined by Kelly in Vegas and the Prop Queen Ariel to talk about ways to make some money on the big game coming up this Sunday.
Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00And we are pleased to be joined right now by someone, I think a lot of folks that follow the gambling world, definitely on social media know, Kelly in Vegas, sitting to my right here on Radio Row.
00:11And then we've also got, you just told Ariel, no I know, Ariel or Ariel, Ariel.
00:17I know, everyone gets so confused by how to pronounce the ah.
00:20And you just told me 15 seconds ago and I forgot.
00:23It's early.
00:24She's better known as the prop queen.
00:25Yeah.
00:25So we got Kelly in Vegas and the prop queen.
00:27I called you Aria because I've been rewatching Game of Thrones.
00:31Yeah.
00:31So I apologize.
00:33That would be a cool name.
00:34It's happened to me at Starbucks before where they wrote like Aria.
00:37Oh, you get an Aria?
00:38Yeah.
00:38I felt like a fighter.
00:40Yeah.
00:40It's great.
00:41It is great.
00:43So we got the big game coming up on Sunday.
00:45I mean, this is like, I fancy myself a wager every now and again.
00:50This is like Christmas Day coming up on Sunday, right?
00:53For the wagering community.
00:55It's huge.
00:56Especially for the props market.
00:57I love props and everyone's like, oh my gosh, this is like the biggest prop event.
01:01Is this the busiest time of year?
01:03I said, yeah.
01:04But the best part is we've been doing this now for two weeks, handicapping the same game.
01:08So now you're just, okay.
01:10Yes, that's the bet I like.
01:11Yep.
01:11But you, see, I get nervous about props because I know that a lot of them are for the suckers.
01:17And I'm a known sucker.
01:20Especially when you parlay the props.
01:22Oh, yeah.
01:24That's a big sucker for it.
01:25Yeah.
01:25Yeah.
01:26You're looking at him to buy more lottery tickets than I know I should.
01:29So what are the actual, what are the props where I've actually got the best chance of not being a sucker?
01:36Defensive tackle, oh, defensive player props.
01:38Oh, really?
01:38So total tackle prop market is my favorite for primetime games.
01:42It just seems to be the market that 90% of the time you can handicap and nail as opposed to betting on quarterbacks and wide receivers.
01:50Okay.
01:51Is it partly just because there's not as many people?
01:53Is it a more inefficient market?
01:55Yeah.
01:55With a lot of the less glamorous stuff?
01:57I don't think that they really care about it.
01:58No, you're absolutely right.
01:59It is an inefficient market because you have to look at it from a bookmaker's perspective.
02:03They know exactly who's walking in the door or opening the app and saying, here's what they're going to bet on.
02:07They're not, they don't care about defensive player markets.
02:12They're going to spend 45 seconds handicapping those.
02:15Some wise guy's going to come in, make a bet.
02:17They're going to say, oh, we had that price wrong.
02:18Better move it.
02:19Yeah.
02:20Versus quarterbacks, wide receivers, running backs.
02:22Of course, those kind of guys are going to get so much more handle, so they have to make sure that they got those markets correct, right?
02:29And we know that the prop market is one of the only beatable markets long-term in the NFL anymore.
02:33It is such a tight market.
02:36The whole percentage is significantly higher because the power rating perspective from teams 1 through 32 is, the parody in the NFL is truly any given Sunday.
02:47Being the big game, they've spent some more time on this.
02:49But when you're given a phone book of props, it's almost impossible for them to have any more knowledge than somebody who does this for a living every single week.
02:59Or to get all of it right.
02:59So this is a huge opportunity for you guys.
03:02You genuinely get excited about this.
03:03Yeah, yeah, yeah.
03:04Kelly in Vegas and the Prop Queen joining us on Radio Row on Sports Radio 610.
03:09Just sticking with that and specific to this game, a lot of the prop bets, too, are tied to what kind of game we think it's going to be, right?
03:15The flow of the game, the pace of the game, all of those things.
03:18What are you two ladies seeing with that?
03:20That's funny you say that because I'm going to kick it back to Ariel.
03:23This is a discussion that I have with people all the time.
03:25When you have many bets on one game, right?
03:28On a random Thursday night, I may bet a side.
03:31I may bet a total.
03:33But because it's the big game, because it's the Super Bowl, everybody wants to have all this action.
03:38And this is actually how you can get buried.
03:40Because, oh, I see this low-scoring game.
03:42I see lots of field goals.
03:44Or I see, you know, the quarterbacks not really airing it out against these two defenses, so they're going to run the football.
03:51Then you're betting overs on these running backs.
03:53If you are wrong about your idea of how the game goes, guess what?
03:56You're going to get buried, and you are going to get absolutely ruined on one game that really shouldn't be bet any differently, my opinion, than an average Sunday afternoon game.
04:07If you are not going to put $1,000 on Sunday at 1 p.m., why on earth are you doing it because it's the Super Bowl?
04:13So I'm curious to hear how Ariel says, because we've been doing media stuff all week long.
04:17And I don't think anybody's talked about that, because, of course, this is how I see the game playing out.
04:22But when you start to correlate, whether you parlay them or not, and it doesn't go your way, like last year in the fourth quarter, all of those prop bets went over in garbage time.
04:31I mean, we saw Kenny Pickett, remember?
04:34Like, then over two and a half, two and a half, you know, players to attempt to pass.
04:39And the bookmakers just got crushed late.
04:42And those are the types of things you want to avoid having.
04:44So I was just curious, because nobody's asked that.
04:47And I'm like, you've got to be careful how you frame that narrative on how you think the game's going to go.
04:51Which is why I don't always base my props off of how I think the game will go.
04:55And I know that sounds silly, but you actually can.
04:58The way that you would middle a game is the same way you kind of can with props.
05:02Instead of putting all your eggs in one basket, it doesn't mean that it's going to necessarily win or lose if you do it that way.
05:08I just, I try not to base all my props off the game flow.
05:13But I will say that there are props I won't bet because of game flow.
05:16Kenneth Walker's prop, his rushing yards prop, dropped from 79 and a half to 70 and a half since last Sunday.
05:22I don't want to bet the under anymore.
05:24One, it's a bad number.
05:25But two, what if we do hit garbage time at the end of the fourth quarter and they're running the clock out because the Seahawks are up by a touchdown?
05:31Then what?
05:32So those are the props that you have to remember, like Patrick Mahomes a few years ago when he was over his rushing yard prop and then took three knees and went under.
05:39You have to be careful of certain markets because of what could happen in the last two minutes of a fourth quarter.
05:44Getting killed by victory formation, that's as bad as it gets.
05:48I sit next to him on game day and I don't gamble all that much.
05:52He's a fiend.
05:54And sometimes I'm like, why are you so angry about that?
05:56I stopped paying attention ten minutes ago.
05:58He is dialed in right then.
05:59I'll give you a moment because Seth and I do work for the Texans.
06:02And the Tommy Togiai touchdown at the end of the Colts game in week 18.
06:07I turn to Seth, I'm like, there's thousands of people in this stadium right now that just had their financial Sunday impacted by that play right there.
06:15You guys both know the play I'm talking about.
06:17Yeah.
06:18Here's the problem with the NFL because I'm a big college football better, but the NFL, teams will blow three touchdown leads.
06:26We see it all.
06:27Crazy things do happen.
06:28And you have to almost expect that witching hour, that's what they call it, in the fourth quarter.
06:33And that's when props and other bets just go to die.
06:37Yeah.
06:38Right?
06:38And so you do have to be careful in terms of looking at some of these things.
06:43Like Ariel said, with Patrick Mahomes, she has a quarterback, I believe it's a quarterback rushing prop.
06:48Is it Sam Darnold?
06:49Yeah, it was the over longest rush for Sam Darnold on Sunday because if you're going to take Sam Darnold over rushing yards, again, it's so low, it's six and a half.
06:58Why would you risk him having a seven-yard rush, taking a knee at the end of the game and losing that bet for you?
07:04You could just go over his five and a half longest rush, have one nice long rush, which typically is what happens.
07:10He'll run the ball once, maybe twice throughout the game.
07:13So don't go over on that one yard.
07:16Just go with the longest rush prop so you don't have to worry about it.
07:19Once it hits, it's a winner.
07:21That is a great suggestion.
07:22Could you guys come back for three more segments between now and tomorrow?
07:25Hey, I want to make sure we get splash sports in here.
07:29I feel like, Ariel, you just gave one play right there on Sam Darnold, longest rush, over five and a half yards.
07:36Kelly, do you have one for the audience that you're looking at?
07:37So I'm not as big of a prop better, but one of the things that I have been very blessed with is to have a community around me.
07:43You have people that are really smart, and I get some really good, sharp information.
07:47And one of the biggest bets that one of my best friends saw in Vegas on opening night was the Seahawks not to attempt a fourth down conversion, plus 170.
07:57Now, that market has significantly come down.
07:59I think it's about plus 140 last I looked last night.
08:02I did bet it, which is kind of a no-no.
08:05You shouldn't be tagging along late in the game.
08:07But the plus money, I couldn't resist.
08:09And as I was talking to Ariel about it, I said, hey, John saw this come through, like, immediately it got bet.
08:15And she goes, of course.
08:16She was like, the Seahawks are one of the least aggressive teams.
08:19Yeah.
08:19So you want to –
08:20Yeah, there's like this weird coaching metric that someone's told me about.
08:23There's the aggressive coach scale, most aggressive versus least.
08:27Yeah.
08:27And McDonald's is one of the least aggressive coaches in all of football.
08:31And the plus money is hard to resist.
08:32Yeah, I know.
08:33I have an addiction to that plus sign in front of the underdogs and so forth.
08:37We can go to therapy together for that.
08:38Yes, exactly.
08:39Let's make sure that you guys talk about this.
08:42This sounds like an awesome contest that you guys have coming up with Splash Sports here.
08:46Tell us about it.
08:46Yeah, we have a lot of stuff that we do with Splash.
08:48Obviously, for the big game, we wanted to put something together.
08:51And Splash has this thing called tiers where you're picking players from separate groups, right,
08:55so that you can't just pick all the big-name players.
08:56You've got to actually have a little bit of knowledge of the game.
09:00But, yeah, I even got my grandma involved because she doesn't know a lot about gambling
09:04and betting and things.
09:05And she's going to watch the game.
09:06And now she has four different players she gets to cheer for.
09:09It's $25, $25,000 in prizes.
09:12We were actually just talking to my sister this morning.
09:13She said, Arielle, can you just, like, find a bet that I could put $20 on for the Super Bowl
09:19because I just want to, like, have a little stake in the game.
09:21She knows nothing.
09:22I said, actually, Alexa, you should join our Splash Sports contest
09:25because it's, like Kelly says, it's a plus EV play
09:28because you're giving $25 into this guaranteed money contest.
09:32Top 100 get paid out.
09:34You can make a minimum of $75 off $25.
09:37You can make up to over $3,000 off a $25, essentially, like, putting that into the contest.
09:43All you have to do is pick four players, and it's a fantasy scale.
09:47Like a DFS where you have a primetime game DFS where you're just in one game
09:51and you pick, like, the four or five players, the top guy makes you 2-tech, 2-X, et cetera.
09:56So this is just four players.
09:57Whoever is in the top 100 for the culminated fantasy score of those four players makes money.
10:03Awesome.
10:03Yeah, while you're there, make sure you guys check out Cousin Sal's Super Bowl scores.
10:07It's free.
10:07Yep.
10:08So that's the fun part because who doesn't love Super Bowl scores?
10:10$25,000 in prizes there as well.
10:13So while you're over there, you might as well join the free Super Bowl scores contest.
10:16It's a good chance to win money.
10:18Exactly.
10:18It's stupid not to do it.
10:19It is.
10:20Yes, it is available.
10:21Sean, I did my research before this show.
10:23Yeah, yeah, yeah.
10:23Yeah, 40 states we're available in, so it's great.
10:26I've really enjoyed doing a lot of stuff with Splash.
10:28We'll be back for March Madness, the Masters.
10:30Got a full calendar year, maybe baseball season for Ariel.
10:34Yeah, everyone always happens with it.
10:35Oh, you're a big baseball fan?
10:36A huge baseball fan.
10:37Okay, good.
10:38You need to get 162 games to do this stuff.
10:40I'm sorry about Fromber.
10:42We were expecting it.
10:43Yeah.
10:43Yeah, I can't believe how much money he got.
10:45We were expecting it.
10:46We were not expecting him back.
10:49We're sorry about the August and September version of Fromber.
10:52We were just talking about it before you guys got here.
10:54Yeah, where he was intentionally beaming his catcher in the chest and stuff.
10:57Oh, I'm a Yankees fan, so you still have one up on me all the time.
11:00What's that?
11:00I'm a Yankees fan, so you've always got one up on me.
11:03Oh, the Dodgers are spending too much money.
11:05It's not fair.
11:06I still hate you guys.
11:07Time to end this interview.
11:10You ladies are great.
11:11SplashSports.com.
11:12Download the Splash app.
11:14Grab a spot in these awesome contests, and good luck this Sunday, ladies.
11:18Thanks so much.
11:19You guys, too.
11:19All right.
11:20Thanks.
11:20That is the Prop Queen, and that is Kelly in Vegas dropping by.
11:25They're both tremendous.
11:27SplashSports.com.
11:29And, Seth, thank you for doing the geography research.
11:33Yeah, thank you for doing the geography research, Seth, knowing that I –
11:37I know what the shape of Texas looks like.
11:38Yeah.
11:39They don't label the states on there.
11:40You've got to know what your state looks like.
11:41There it is and all that stuff, yeah.
Comments