00:00Gulliver Craig, our correspondent in Kyiv. Let's move from Kyiv, let's go to London, let's bring in John Loft, the geopolitical analyst.
00:05This is commentator, head of foreign policy at the new Eurasian Strategy Centre, Nes.
00:10John, welcome to France 24, always great to have you with us.
00:13And we were talking about who's in the room.
00:15Today, who should we know about, notably that the head of Russia's Intelligence Union.
00:20The GRU is amongst them, a significant factor.
00:24Do you...
00:25Hold the same kind of despairing thought in terms of where this could go as Gulliver, or do you...
00:30Do you see room for manoeuvre here?
00:33Well, I'd say it's not a...
00:35It's a statistically high-ranking Russian delegation.
00:37The two names that I've heard of are the...
00:40The head of the Russian military intelligence service, and also the...
00:45The person, Kirill Dmitriev, who has been involved in earlier negotiations, and who is a businessman.
00:50And who is the direct counterpart of Steve Witkoff.
00:53So, this looks like...
00:55An effort on the Russian side to keep the negotiating process...
01:00...going, but not with, I think, any serious commitment to seeing it through...
01:05...to a successful end.
01:07We have to be clear here that Putin sees icing...
01:10...mainly the opportunity in this process through the fact that he thinks that Trump can exercise...
01:15...influence both over Zelensky, President Zelensky, and over Ukraine...
01:20...these European allies to persuade them that there really is no point continuing the fight because...
01:25...Russia is eventually going to win.
01:26And this, in other words, would be a way, as Putin sees it, to...
01:30...accelerate a victorious outcome.
01:32So, I'm afraid I share the...
01:35...emotion or, indeed, pessimism of your correspondent in Kiev.
01:38I think the Ukrainian...
01:40...expectations of these talks are very low.
01:43They know exactly what the Russian strategy...
01:45...they can see it being implemented now with extreme brutality in terms of the just targeting...
01:50...of the energy infrastructure during this cold snap.
01:53And this is an effort on the part...
01:55...of Moscow to try to break the will of the Ukrainian people to continue the...
02:00...war.
02:01But we see no sign that Ukrainians are giving up, even though they're numerically...
02:05...numbered.
02:06The Russians are advancing places on the battlefield.
02:08But it's actually a relatively still...
02:10...static picture.
02:11And that's how it has been over what the last...
02:15...three years or so now.
02:16And the thought that this is entering...
02:18...this war is entering its fifth year.
02:20And Russia controls what around, you know, 20% of...
02:25...the Ukrainian territory.
02:27It really...
02:28...this war has gone, I think, so far.
02:30...very, very badly for the Russians.
02:32And their economy is starting to hurt.
02:34And I think they have to be...
02:35...questions raised just about how credible this strategy is of Putin...
02:39...because he's been...
02:40...talking for months and probably over a year now...
02:43...about the possibility of the Ukrainians...
02:45...collapsing any moment.
02:46Two thoughts there.
02:47First of all, I guess, what the Donbass gives in its vast...
02:50...territory is the industrial heartland, the coal mining area.
02:55...Lohansk and Donetsk, because we know most of, if not all...
02:58...bar bits of no man's land in Lohansk.
03:00...are occupied.
03:02Are there still, I think, maybe about 20% of...
03:05...of Donetsk, depending on different analysis...
03:08...that is still...
03:10...in Ukrainian hands.
03:11We're talking about Pokrovsk as well, in and amongst that.
03:14I just...
03:15...wonder your thoughts because you...
03:16...you talk about, you know, this is a...
03:18...you know, for Russia...
03:20...it's not what they wanted, but this allows Putin, doesn't it...
03:23...to present something that, you know...
03:25...kind of a golden gem of Ukraine, the Donetsk.
03:28As you say, there's a kind of...
03:30...going and marching slowly towards it as well.
03:33And I do wonder whether actually we're going to see...
03:35...that issue go away because the study of war, the Institute of Study of War...
03:38...estimates it will take Russian troops...
03:40...up until, quote, August next year to conquer the rest of the Donbass.
03:43It goes back to your other point that the...
03:45...the leverage is slowly diminishing, isn't it?
03:49Well, I...
03:50...I think it is to...
03:51...to some extent.
03:52We have to see on the Russian side, Putin has set expectations.
03:55...of a rapid victory.
03:57And that's not going to come about.
03:59And I think that you...
04:00...the Ukrainians are going to continue fighting.
04:03The Russians may advance a little bit faster...
04:05...when the spring comes and the foliage returns.
04:08And they're not as...
04:10...exposed.
04:11But Ukraine, I suspect, will somehow keep going with the assistance of it.
04:15In the main, it's European allies.
04:18So, the question is how...
04:20...how long can the Russians carry on?
04:22Putin wants to show something absolutely tangible.
04:25And, of course, you know, territorial acquisitions are a very useful way of showing, in principle...
04:30...that, you know, the war has achieved a result.
04:33But there's a nice phrase in Russian to describe...
04:35...I think territories such as Donbass.
04:37And that is a suitcase without a handle.
04:40This is going to be a burden for Russia because the industrial assets there have been...
04:45...in many cases devastated the attraction of, you know, coal mining...
04:50...these days is not as great as it used to be for obvious reasons.
04:54And those territories...
04:55...have been largely depopulated.
04:57So, what value Russia really sees in those...
05:00...I think...
05:00...is limited beyond the fact that they want to get hold of the...
05:05...the towns that are known as the Fortress Belt that are really the mainstay...
05:10...of Ukraine's defences in that region at the moment.
05:13Because if they can control those...
05:15...then I think the path to acquiring greater influence in Ukraine or in...
05:20...in invading further is much, much easier.
05:25So, that's why it's such a threat for Ukraine and why they don't want to give up that territory...
05:29...particularly since they can...
05:30...to control it.
05:31And added to that is the visceral factor, isn't it, that this territory...
05:34...many of the families have...
05:35...that the soldiers say is marked in the blood of their loved ones, people who've fallen...
05:38...to defend it and what's...
05:40...left of it.
05:41Do you see though another outcome here?
05:42Of course.
05:43Other than the continuation at this point, I mean...
05:45...Garlava talked about, you know, how the government wants to continue...
05:50...not give up this territory and it would have to go to a referendum.
05:52Do you see any looking and analysing...
05:55...in the political situation, any outcome which could involve a referendum in Ukraine...
05:59...on this territory?
06:00...in the Donbass?
06:01I think it would require the military situation to deteriorate...
06:05...significantly for that to happen.
06:08And then you might be talking about...
06:10...let's say some division of that contested territory at the moment.
06:15This would be, of course, extremely unpopular in Ukraine and President...
06:20...Sovansky has referred to this repeatedly.
06:23But right now, I think there is a...
06:25...from what we can tell from the opinion polling, there is a consensus among Ukrainians...
06:28...that they must keep fighting.
06:30...because if they don't, they risk losing their independence entirely.
06:33And this is what this war is...
06:35...about Russia wants to deprive Ukraine of the possibility of being...
06:40...a viable independent state.
06:42As always, really good to talk to you, John.
06:45...of our geopolitical analyst, commentator and head of foreign policy...
06:48...at New Eurasian Strategy Centre...
06:50...Ness, John, as always, we'll see you soon.
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