00:00Jonathan Alexander had an interesting article in the Chronicle yesterday, Seth, and the premise was, with Sam Darnold in the Super Bowl now, we know that Sam Darnold has had a very jagged route to get to where he is.
00:11From seeing, I'm reading the headline, from seeing ghosts to Super Bowl, why Sam Darnold's rise should provide hope for C.J. Stroud.
00:20I'm just going to ask you the 30,000-foot question about this. Does Sam Darnold's run to the Super Bowl enter your mind at all when it comes to C.J. Stroud getting his mojo back?
00:33It does. I mean, if only because of the cautionary tale of, hey, man, look at all these various quarterbacks, not just recently, but in the past as well,
00:44that don't get off to a storybook start in their first three or four seasons, then that, man, sometimes it just takes a while for everything to click.
00:53And whether it's Baker Mayfield or Sam Darnold or Geno Smith or whomever else, you can always look to those guys as a reminder to be patient.
01:02Go back to Eli Manning. Eli Manning's first three years in the league were bad.
01:06Like, C.J.'s is way more promising than Eli Manning's first few years.
01:10It just took a while for everything to come together.
01:12But there's also a hazard in, you know, succumbing to survivor bias and things like, oh, look, that's what happens.
01:20No, no, the vast majority of quarterbacks that aren't awesome in their first three or four years never end up being awesome.
01:26And most of them fizzle out.
01:28So you can't just say, well, look, it happened with Sam Darnold, so clearly this is what's going to happen with C.J. Stroud.
01:33And C.J.'s had a much more promising beginning than Sam Darnold's first few years.
01:38Yeah. Well, that's the thing that where the Sam Darnold thing falls apart for me is that it took Sam Darnold several stops to get to where we are right now.
01:47You know, it took Baker Mayfield several stops to get there.
01:52I mean, if Geno Smith is the one you're looking at now, and Geno's terrible now, but he did have a nice little run there in Seattle for a few years.
01:59It took Geno Smith a few stops to get there.
02:01That's the thing for me.
02:03That's why I like you bringing up Eli.
02:05You know, you bringing up Eli Manning or, you know, even Trevor Lawrence looks like he's going to fall into that category here.
02:11Looks more like he's going to fall into the category of a guy who, at the very least, figured a few things out or at least got partnered with the right coach to unlock the best version of Trevor Lawrence.
02:22You know, I'm not – I still don't think Trevor Lawrence – I still think it's silly that he's a top MVP guy this year.
02:28I understand why because he's a quarterback of a 13-win team.
02:32But the whole thing with Darnold and a few of these other guys is they had to go off to – Darnold had to go off to Shanahan Football Academy for a year in San Francisco.
02:41Yeah, and like as far as – and then Baker Mayfield's always an interesting one because Baker Mayfield threw 26 touchdowns and eight interceptions in his third year in a very run-heavy offense.
02:53He passed for 3,500 yards.
02:55But it was – there was a lot of discussion about whether or not they should give him that extension after three years.
02:59I mean, he might be the best comparison in that he had shown a lot of promise.
03:04There was still a lot of stuff he didn't know about, and they didn't give him that extension after the third season.
03:08Yeah.
03:09I guess the other part of it, too, is every time we bring up one of these guys like Sam Darnold or Geno Smith or let's say Baker Mayfield, it includes going to a different place.
03:21Yes.
03:21And like it's – so there's one is, okay, maybe the guy needed a change of scenery for whatever reason.
03:27But two, and I really always wonder about this, maybe the reduced expectations help those guys.
03:34Yeah.
03:34That getting them out from the pressure of having to live up to this or live up to that and kind of just getting a restart on their career, that can be a good thing for people, too.
03:44Yeah.
03:44So it's not as, oh, well, if Sam Darnold had just stayed with the Jets all these years, he'd be having the same experience right now.
03:53That's a good point.
03:54Okay, so I'm going to use Baker and Sam Darnold in this argument because those are the two – I think those are the two most prominent names of highly drafted guys, the first and a third overall pick, who have now gone on to – look, Sam Darnold's in the Super Bowl.
04:07Well, Baker Mayfield has put together a few really good statistical years, kind of bubbled up to the top of the MVP conversation at times over the last couple years and then fell back.
04:17But still, I think, above the line of good quarterback in the NFL, that's true.
04:21You know, if I'm worried about – if I'm worried about the C.J. Stroud story unfolding the same way or having to unfold the same way as Darnold and Baker Mayfield, that he's got to go somewhere else, then I'm equating the Texans to the Jets and the Browns.
04:36And I think the Texans – okay, good, you're talking me back into this.
04:41I think the Texans are – I mean, undoubtedly, I think they're a better organization than both of those with better coaching, better infrastructure, better ownership than both of those teams.
04:51Yeah, yeah, how much of this is simply those guys maturing as quarterbacks but also just being in better situations?
04:58They're in non-toxic or non-dumpster fire situations.
05:02I don't know which guys of the Jets over the last – I mean, at some point we might see Zach Wilson making an incredible reemergence or something.
05:09I doubt it.
05:11No, I doubt it too, but this is the type of – like, he's on that same track as those guys right now.
05:18So, you know, he's on his third team, he was a failed second overall pick.
05:22I don't think so either just because I've never been a fan of Zach Wilson's game, but I know you're just throwing names out there.
05:27You don't like his whole shtick.
05:29No, there's – well, I think as we're learning, there's not a lot of guys whose shtick I like.
05:33You know?
05:33That's true.
05:34If you have a shtick, especially as a quarterback, that's –
05:38You're on my bad side.
05:39If you've got a shtick as a quarterback, you're climbing uphill to get into Sean Pendergast's wheelhouse.
05:46That's exactly right.
05:47That's exactly right.
05:48So, okay, so I feel better now.
05:51I'm glad we had this conversation.
05:52It's the Jets and the Browns' fault.
05:55It's – you know, CJ is in a better ecosystem, Gladstone word, to realize his full potential.
06:01You know, Geno Smith, likewise.
06:02It was just a matter of, okay, getting him into some non-constant situations.
06:07Yeah, he was – yeah, Jets also.
06:09That's right.
06:09That's right.
06:11Yeah, that might be.
06:11That might – you know what?
06:12The Jets could become, like, the new feeder system, the feeder league for NFL quarterbacks.
06:18Like, you just hope – if you're a team that needs a quarterback, just hope the Jets draft one with their latest high first-round pick
06:26and then just wait a few years.
06:28Yeah.
06:29And buy them at a discount.
06:30Dude, it's going to get harder for the Jets now, too, with this NIL.
06:34The belief is that's what Dante – that's what Dante – that's the belief is that's what Dante Moore, the Oregon quarterback, did.
06:40Dante Moore went back to – he chose to go back to school.
06:43I'm sure he's getting a massive NIL deal.
06:46He got Oregon to the playoff this year, and he's a Heisman Trophy candidate.
06:50He's a really good player.
06:51Could have come out, could have been a top-five pick, said, no, I'm going to stay at Oregon.
06:55And the belief is, like, he didn't want to go to the Jets.
06:57Stephen A. Smith was screaming about that, about stay in school, don't go to the Jets.
07:02And that's when Garrett Wilson was going at Stephen A. Smith, the wide receiver from the Jets.
07:06It's like, hey, man, we're not so bad.
07:09It's always so dicey, though, because when you start playing that game as a quarterback, it's –
07:13well, if you think you're going to be a high first-round pick, then you're trading one bad situation for another.
07:21Most of the teams that are – most of the teams that are picking a quarterback in the top three picks tend to not be good teams.
07:29No, and this just in, the Jets will probably be right there again next year.
07:33I think the sweet spot is probably – you should go back to school, maybe tank it a little bit.
07:39Yeah, yeah, yeah.
07:39Either have a character issue or something, just fabricate a character issue.
07:44Have a birthday party and tell anybody about it so that nobody comes to your birthday party.
07:49And then you end up getting drafted by a good team at 15 or 16 overall.
07:54Oh, my God, that's a great idea.
07:56And nowadays, you've got an agent who can actually, like, through the back channels, get word to NFL teams what's going on.
08:05Well, like, hey, listen, listen, just between you and me, be sure you don't tell Peter Schrager or anybody.
08:10Right.
08:11But he's got, like, 17 kids.
08:13Yeah.
08:16He had a – I convinced him to get a vasectomy two years ago.
08:22Oh, my God.
08:22He got it reversed.
08:23Oh, my God.
08:24The guy's dead set on impregnating as many women as possible.
08:28If Dante Moore has these weird bad games next year, I'm going to be like, he was listening that day.
08:32Yeah.
08:32He was listening to Payne and Pendergast that day.
08:35Okay, now the CJ texts are rolling in on the heels of that.
08:39If you're just waking up, we were talking about Jonathan Alexander's article about how Sam Darnold's ascent should give you hope for CJ Stroud.
08:47You want to know why CJ apologists don't bring up the Steelers game?
08:50Because this organization says if you win, nothing else matters.
08:54QB wins.
08:55QB wins.
08:56Baby.
08:57Yeah, it is weird.
08:58I don't think it's fair to have a conversation about CJ Stroud without also bringing up the Steelers game.
09:05Yeah.
09:06It was two games in a row where CJ was bad.
09:09He was really bad for two games in a row.
09:12It wasn't – if you start off with, hey, we're only going to talk about the Patriots game and it was just one game.
09:19No, it was CJ in the playoffs this year.
09:21Yeah.
09:22And that's – you just can't – you can't ignore that.
09:26To which a CJ apologist can say, well, he's had good games in the playoffs before.
09:32And I would say, yes, good point.
09:33Yeah.
09:33Good point.
09:34He's had two good games in the playoffs.
09:36He's had four mediocre to bad games in the playoffs.
09:39He has had – because right now –
09:40All on the road.
09:41I'm still feeling – I'm still really concerned about CJ and his head space and everything else where he is right now.
09:47Me too.
09:49Plus, coming off the fact that he had a very unimpressive regular season as well.
09:54Did the things that you needed to do to win, but it wasn't impressive at all.
09:57Nope.
09:57But that – you got to do – also remember, man, he's had really bad luck with his wide receivers in the playoffs.
10:06I mean, just every year in these elimination games, he's out there with a hodgepodge of various guys or without his number one guy.
10:13Go back two years ago, he had Nico Collins, but really nobody else viable out there.
10:17So it's not a complete and total excuse for all of the other things.
10:21Certainly not an excuse for the Steelers game.
10:23No.
10:23But it's something to keep in mind if you're trying to be even-handed about it.
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