00:00What are the wise guys saying about the money?
00:02And where's the money going here in this one here?
00:05Because for whatever reason, the line has changed.
00:09I mean, it's actually dropped.
00:11I would have thought with a substitute teacher quarterback going into this game
00:14that that number may have risen, but it didn't.
00:17It's actually dropped.
00:18Why do you think that is?
00:20Well, the look ahead line had the Broncos minus one and a half with Bo Nix,
00:23which I thought that was the wrong line to begin with.
00:26And then it reopened at four and a half, shot up to as high as five and a half.
00:29I saw six in a couple of offshore spots.
00:32And then it's come down to three and a half.
00:33I'm seeing as low as three and a half even money.
00:35So there's a lot of sharp money on Denver at plus five and a half.
00:38A lot of recreational money has been coming in on the Broncos as well.
00:42They're betting on the defense.
00:43They're not betting on the backup quarterback.
00:45They think their defense is good enough to keep this within the Vegas number,
00:48within the Vegas point spread.
00:50And that's what the sharp money is betting on.
00:52But, you know, people say, well, a seven-point move isn't warranted.
00:55It was too much of a move.
00:56But when you look at, you know, the line, when you're laying one and a half
01:01or you're getting one and a half, they're not really worth that much.
01:04Those points ain't worth that much.
01:05So now at three and a half, it's probably settling in at the right spot.
01:09If it gets to minus three, I might look to play the Patriots.
01:12They have won the most games in the NFL this season,
01:14no matter how good that Broncos defense is.
01:16I mean, the Patriots got pretty good defense as well.
01:18And Drake May, I mean, other than, you know, Matt Stafford and Josh Allen,
01:22who was a better quarterback this season than Drake May, Mike Vrabel on the road
01:26has proven he can win football games, one of the best in second-half adjustments.
01:31If you just look at, you know, points scored by his teams in the second-half
01:34of football games over the years, he's one of the best in second-half adjustments.
01:37So this Patriots team is for real.
01:39I questioned them all season because of their weak schedule,
01:41but they just keep winning games.
01:43And now they're in the AFC Championship game.
01:45You know, Drake May put the ball on the carpet a lot of times in that Texas game,
01:50as you mentioned.
01:50I mean, you know, we're always talking about Jared Stenum going into this game.
01:54A little concerned about him, the way he played in that divisional game?
01:58Yeah, I mean, a little bit.
01:59Listen, you're going up against the best defense now.
02:01You know, the Texans and now the Broncos.
02:03So I think the Patriots learned a lot from last week playing the Texans.
02:07The other thing people ain't talking about is the Patriots are the much healthier team
02:11heading into this football game.
02:12They have a plus-seven overall health score advantage.
02:15Broncos are dealing not just with injuries with the quarterback,
02:17wide receiver, a couple of spots in the field.
02:19They will be at home.
02:20The noise level is going to be crazy.
02:22That home field advantage in Denver is no joke.
02:24You know, every time Drake May gets to the line to call a play,
02:27it's going to be louder than he's probably ever heard in his lifetime.
02:31So it's a big-time game.
02:33But I think Drake May is a big-time football player, a big-time quarterback.
02:36And Mike Vrabel, I think he's got something to prove.
02:38And, you know, I mean, Robert Kraft, he knows how to get his teams to the Super Bowl.
02:42And I think they get back there again this season.
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