Recency bias on the 49ers

KGMZ-FM / 95.7 THE GAME

Watch Recency bias on the 49ers - KGMZ-FM / 95.7 THE GAME on Dailymotion

Transcript

00:00Here was the phrase that pops into my head as I'm listening.

00:04One of the beautiful things about us doing 2-6 is I think we get an opportunity

00:09to listen to a lot of you throughout the morning and the early afternoon.

00:15I think it helps us dip a toe in the water to where you're at.

00:20And it's not just our listeners.

00:22It's also the guests and the people just calling in,

00:26listening to everyone talk about this game.

00:28And I have decided that one phrase over everything else

00:32has completely overtaken the analysis of this matchup.

00:37And the phrase is recency bias.

00:42And it has me actually feeling maybe a little bit more optimistic today.

00:47And tell the people what that means.

00:49Okay, so I think that the Niners do have a very difficult assignment this weekend.

00:55There's no escaping that.

00:57But what recency bias in this particular case means is you're taking what happened

01:03last Saturday and last Saturday alone as the overwhelming only thing with which you

01:12are using to analyze this matchup.

01:14The Eagles played last weekend, but not really because they sat a bunch of their people.

01:19Right.

01:19And so that's a wipe away.

01:21The 49ers played the one seed in the NFC.

01:25They had a very hard time scoring the football against a team I think is actually a really bad

01:31matchup for them, but whatever.

01:33And all the people they were missing and whatever.

01:36We're not going to do that today.

01:37But you're taking last Saturday as overwhelming gospel in terms of who the 49ers are and what

01:48they will look like on Sunday.

01:49And I think that's a mistake.

01:51It can be.

01:51It also could be very telling for who they've been all year.

01:55And if you want to look at all the defenses they faced and the best defenses, Seattle number

01:59one in points allowed, and you had a really hard time scoring against them both times,

02:04you got one win.

02:05Houston's number two, and you went and played Houston on the road, and you scored 15 points.

02:11And I think that was a Mac Jones special.

02:13It was.

02:13But still, I mean, I don't think that you had Kittle back yet either.

02:17You did not.

02:17Your offense, you had Trent, and you may not have Trent this weekend.

02:21You should.

02:22Questionable.

02:22I'm sure he's going to fly, but you never know.

02:24And then you look at the other games you've played, and the teams you've played that are good

02:28defenses, Jacksonville number eight in points allowed.

02:31You struggled.

02:32You lost.

02:33So it's more for me than just recency bias.

02:35Yeah.

02:36Seattle, three points.

02:37That's not good.

02:38And it has everyone thinking, oh boy, the offense needs to put up 30 to win, and they

02:43couldn't even get a touchdown at home against Seattle.

02:46So yeah, the recency bias part of that, I get.

02:49But for me, the overarching issue is that when you played good defenses, you really struggled,

02:54as everyone does.

02:55Well, even that feels like small, sample-sized Steve.

02:59I mean, like, sure, you had a hard time scoring.

03:0120 points against Seattle in two games.

03:03But one of them feels like it was a lifetime ago.

03:06So, like, opening week was like, wow, these teams were all different then.

03:11Seattle was different then.

03:12We know the Niners were different.

03:13They had Nick Bosa and Fred Warner in that football game.

03:16And George Kittle.

03:17Right.

03:18For a half.

03:19But he was awesome early.

03:20Even the Houston game.

03:21Yes, it was a Mac Jones game.

03:23That was before Halloween.

03:25And then how many of the other quote-unquote top defenses have they faced?

03:31I don't even know.

03:33Like, Jacksonville is a pretty good defense.

03:35In scoring, they're number eight.

03:36Yeah, the Rams are at times and in ways a pretty good defense.

03:41Right?

03:42Where are they ranking?

03:42Number 10.

03:43Okay.

03:43Points allowed.

03:44Right?

03:44But you actually scored the ball pretty well against the Rams.

03:48I think you moved the ball well against the Jags.

03:50You had the unfortunate fumble there in the fourth quarter by Brock Purdy.

03:55You played Cleveland.

03:56Cleveland is a good defense.

03:58Yep.

03:58And where are they ranking?

04:00In points, they are 19th.

04:02Okay.

04:02But if you want to look at yards per play, which I think is more accurate.

04:04More accurate.

04:04Because, you know, when you throw a pick six, that ultimately is points allowed on your defense.

04:10But in yards per play, they're tied for fourth.

04:13Okay, and I'm not saying you cut them up, but you beat them pretty good, and you scored

04:1726 points in the game, and you won by double digits.

04:21So, I think there are a lot of different answers, and I'm a firm, firm believer in that coach's

04:29phrase that they always use.

04:30It's a week-to-week league.

04:32Yeah.

04:32And so, this stuff looks different every week, and styles do make fights, and they spend all

04:39week grinding on matchups, and looking at which players, where can they gain an advantage

04:44on the field.

04:45And so, I'm not sitting here telling you that the Niner offense that we saw against the Bears

04:51is suddenly going to re-show up this weekend.

04:54But I also don't think the offense that we saw against the Seahawks is necessarily going

04:59to re-show up again.

05:01I think that when I listen to analysis of this football game, it sounds to me largely

05:08like people simply think, last Saturday's Niners will show up, and how does that team win?

05:16And I just don't know that that's accurate at all.

05:20They don't win, is the answer.

05:21Like, if you score three points, you don't win.

05:23Well, no, I don't mean just the results.

05:25I mean, that, because that offense also, Christian had the ball at the one, and he kicked it.

05:30Whatever.

05:31Whatever.

05:31If you want to look at the last two games, that to me becomes the more interesting thing

05:34on recency bias.

05:36So, against Chicago, a lesser defense, you were amazing.

05:39Couldn't be stopped.

05:40And, yeah, you punted twice, and you scored six touchdowns, and if it wasn't for a pick

05:44six that your guy threw, then you'd probably win that by double digits.

05:48The offense was humming.

05:49Then you faced Seattle six days later, and your offense is not humming.

05:53So, are you the Chicago offense, the Seattle offense, or somewhere in between?

05:57The answer is somewhere in between.

05:59I would think.

05:59But where in between?

06:01Are you in that 24-27 in between, or are you the 17-20 in between?

06:06And it's not just a matter of, like, the points you score.

06:09No, you're right.

06:10It's about how much you have the ball.

06:11Well, it's, do you have the lead?

06:14Are you coming from behind?

06:16It's about those little matchups, right?

06:18Can, like, I think the middle of the field in this particular matchup is going to be important.

06:24The Eagles have really good, especially Quinion Mitchell.

06:26They've got good corners.

06:28And the Niners always worry about the time that Brock Purdy has.

06:32I don't think this is a, hey, shotgun, look left, look right, go deep.

06:37Oh, wait, you're not even, like, they don't have speed receivers.

06:40I don't think Ricky's going to play.

06:41But the middle of the field, George, Christian, Juwan, I think you can make some money there.

06:49I think you can keep the, like, one of the reasons it was 13-3 is not because all the offenses sucked,

06:54but that game was over two and a half hours.

06:57Seattle runs the ball.

06:58You keep the clock moving.

06:59The Niners only had it for 20 minutes.

07:02That's the stuff, stylistically.

07:03I want to know how this unfolds.

07:06And I feel like we're kind of going to war thinking automatically that it will look exactly like it did last Saturday.

07:12And I'm pretty sure it won't.

07:14It won't.

07:14And I just wonder about the Philly defense.

07:17And we'll ask Greg Cosell that here in about eight minutes about what they do.

07:21Is it similar to Seattle?

07:22Because what Seattle did was rush four, we cover with seven, and even when you complete it,

07:27we're going to be there and we will tackle you.

07:29So is Philly more like that?

07:31Or are they a defense that is more susceptible based on the scheme they play and what the Niners like to do?

07:36So we really want to hear from you today.

07:38Do you think recency bias has overtaken our brains as we get ready for this matchup?

07:43Let's talk it out.

07:44888-957-9570.

07:46Be patient, because Greg Cosell of NFL Films is joining us next.

07:50There is no better in-depth X's and O's breakdown of any matchup than this.

07:55So you're going to want to hear this.

Category

Transcript

Be the first to comment

Recommended