- 11 months ago
Howard Simon picks the Bills and playoffs in his weekly HPTB segment.
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00:00Good morning, it's Jeremy and Joe. Snowy out, cold out. Nate's in for Jeremy. Howard's here to pick the Bills.
00:05I had no idea that, I mean, I don't know if I could even do the segment today. I've listened to this man my entire life. I'm a big fan.
00:14I gotta be honest with you, meeting Nate in person, this was on the bucket list.
00:17Yeah.
00:18This is big.
00:19This is really cool.
00:19Bringing two people together.
00:21I actually modeled my haircut after yours.
00:23You got hair?
00:24Yeah.
00:25Then you're not modeling your haircut after me.
00:27From back in the day.
00:28Oh, back in the day.
00:29You know, you could do what he's doing right now.
00:31Pre-Empire days.
00:32Because you never see Nate without, it's always flow coming out of the hat.
00:35Yeah.
00:35You never see it without the hat, so you could do that.
00:37I could have, we could have the same top of the head right now.
00:39You'd have no idea.
00:40So you just have, or he has a hat with just some hair attached to the back of it.
00:44Right, it's actually, it's a one-piece.
00:46There you go.
00:47It's a one-piece hat.
00:48I think you should test it out as a look.
00:50It's nice to see you.
00:51You too.
00:52Is Nate doing a good job?
00:53Yeah, he's doing a great job.
00:54He's alright?
00:54He tried to punch Nick Sirianni in the face earlier today, but other than that, yeah,
00:58it's going pretty well.
00:59I started yelling at 7.30, but it's fine.
01:00Yeah.
01:00Yeah, 7.15 in the morning.
01:02Whatever.
01:02Sometimes you gotta bring the juice, the passion.
01:04They didn't seem to win with much class when they were in town, did they?
01:07That's, that's him.
01:09That's his personality?
01:09I guess we don't experience that as much.
01:11I think if I were a fan of a team in that division, he would be my most hated person
01:17in sports ever.
01:18Because I, after the game, some of the things I heard, saw, read, I'm like, I don't like
01:23them anymore.
01:23And like, even his own players are just like, alright, dude.
01:26Yeah.
01:26AJ Brown was giving him a look.
01:28It's like, what are we doing here?
01:29Come on, man.
01:30See, he's a Western New Yorker, but he's lived in Philly too long.
01:33Now he's turned into one of them.
01:34He's turned into, right.
01:35And we've all got friends from Philly.
01:36Oh, they're all.
01:37And they're all the same.
01:38So you're saying Buffalo plus Philly influences equal?
01:41Philly overtook Buffalo.
01:43Goon that's yelling at everybody.
01:44It's like it got into his blood.
01:46And it overtook his Western New York personnel and he became a Philadelphian.
01:50Before we get to picking the Bills, you only got one regular season game left to pick.
01:53It's a ton of work here.
01:54A lot about the playoffs.
01:55Big research into this game.
01:57A lot about the playoffs.
01:58Sunday's game, what was it for you?
02:01I mean, the stakes really weren't crazy high if you thought New England was on their way
02:05to winning the division.
02:06But still.
02:07They still care.
02:08Both teams cared about that game.
02:09Oh, yeah.
02:09It's the way it happened.
02:10And to not get the win at the end when the guy's open is not going to happen often with
02:15this quarterback, but it did.
02:16It's the offense.
02:17The offense left points on the field all day long.
02:19I mean, I just, you know, I know we have gotten to a point where you can't point out
02:25anything that Josh doesn't do right.
02:27But he did not play well.
02:29Now, there were mitigating factors.
02:30I'm sure his foot is in bad shape because you could see his, he's limping every now and
02:36then.
02:36It was windy.
02:37It was cold.
02:38It was rainy.
02:39It was not a day conducive to throwing of the football.
02:42Their quarterback didn't complete a pass in the entire second half.
02:45But, yeah, Josh missed on plays.
02:47Not just the Shakir throw, the two-point try.
02:50You know, the bomb to Cooks was, I mean, now Josh is hit when he throws it.
02:56But if he's in stride, it's a touchdown.
02:58Oh, the one over his left shoulder?
03:00No, the 50-yard completion.
03:01Oh, yeah, sorry.
03:02He had his guy beat by steps.
03:04Right.
03:04The other one is probably another touchdown where he's looking inside.
03:07The ball goes outside.
03:08Yep.
03:09The series that ends with Josh at the goal line, Shakir is open for a touchdown.
03:15But he's got to turn and go behind himself to catch the ball.
03:19That slows the play down.
03:20He gets tackled.
03:22So, yeah, I thought there were, you know, look, I love Josh when he scrambles.
03:27He's Superman.
03:27Man, don't take a 19-yard sack.
03:30Yeah.
03:30You know, you've got either you try a field goal of the 40-ish yard range or it's fourth
03:35and maybe manageable if you dump it off short.
03:38So, I just thought he did not have a good game.
03:41And the problem is, this just in, fellas, when he doesn't have a good game, this team's
03:47in trouble.
03:47Yeah.
03:48And, thankfully, the silver lining is the defense played great.
03:54So, we've all been worried about the defense all season long.
03:57If they play like that, Josh doesn't necessarily have to be Superman, but the offense has to
04:04do, obviously, better than they did.
04:05They're not a very good offense, but that's the best offensive line they've played all
04:09year in a really good running back.
04:12When they're healthy.
04:13Nolene Johnson, probably not the best, but still.
04:15I mean, Fiderian Mathless, I thought, played.
04:18I was like, okay.
04:19Him and Andre Jones were playing meaningful snaps.
04:21I was joking to the guy next to me in the stands.
04:22I go, like, who are these guys?
04:23I was like, 72 and 75, your best two defensive linemen.
04:26I bet you guys had that on your bingo cards.
04:28Well, no Daquan Jones.
04:29No Jordan Poyer.
04:30Bernard, not that he's played great this year.
04:32Bernard goes down.
04:33Oliver's still out.
04:33And they shut down Philly.
04:35Yeah.
04:35So, that's great.
04:36I mean, you know, you hope that the defense plays like that in the playoffs.
04:40And Josh plays like Josh, and Cook is able to run the ball effectively, and all that
04:45stuff comes together.
04:46Kincaid needs to stay healthy.
04:48Yeah.
04:48Because when he doesn't play, it's a different passing game.
04:51That's my worry, though, right now, is from Sunday's game, that if you're a physical defense
04:57that can stop the run and stop James Cook, you force the Bills to beat you as a passing
05:01offense, and they're not capable of doing it.
05:03And in the AFC playoffs, as we pointed out earlier, you've got three of the top four rush
05:07defenses in the league going to the postseason in Denver, Houston, and Jacksonville.
05:13And those will probably all be really tough matchups for this offense.
05:16Yeah.
05:16And I was looking at some of the stats yesterday.
05:19Jacksonville's pass rush, not so much.
05:21But Denver and Houston also have terrific pass rushes.
05:24See, I know we're going to get to all this and pick the Bills.
05:27The whole thing about who do you want to play, who do you not want to play, all that stuff,
05:30I think we all would like to see Pittsburgh and the Bills.
05:33Yeah.
05:34But it might not happen.
05:36Like, I'm worried about a Denver, a Houston, who, look what the Eagles did to the Bills
05:44offensive line.
05:45I'm worried about what Denver and Houston could do to the Bills offensive line.
05:49And if you disrupt the line, and you get to Josh, and there are no guys in the passing
05:54game to bail him out when he's in trouble, you know, you're kind of screwed.
05:58Before we get to pick the Bills, Pittsburgh and Baltimore are a lot less likely now.
06:03The five seed's tough, because you need some big upsets.
06:06Well, the Chargers could lose.
06:07If they're not playing Herbert, right?
06:08Right.
06:09So the Chargers could lose.
06:10Denver still hasn't clinched the one, have they?
06:13They have not.
06:14So they are going to play.
06:15So the Chargers could lose.
06:16Then you need either Houston or Jacksonville.
06:18That's going to be...
06:19You need Tennessee or Indy.
06:21Tennessee.
06:21Tennessee or Indy's got to win for that.
06:23I don't think Jacksonville's losing to the Titans.
06:26Yeah.
06:26But, you know, maybe Houston to Indy.
06:29If you don't get the five and it's the six or the seven, do you have a preference between
06:33Denver, New England, Jacksonville?
06:34Out of that?
06:36Or are they all the same to you?
06:37Or close enough?
06:38No, no.
06:38I don't think they're all the same to me.
06:40I would like to avoid Denver's defense, quite honestly.
06:43Yeah.
06:43And out of that, I would...
06:45I will tell you, I have not seen enough of Jacksonville.
06:49Yeah.
06:49So I don't...
06:50I would say I have no problem going to Foxborough and playing New England.
06:53That's where I'm at.
06:54I have seen a lot of Jacksonville, and they're the number one team I don't want to play right
06:58now.
06:58I think...
06:59I think I'd want to play New England.
06:59The only thing I think about Jacksonville is their low could be the lowest of anybody
07:04in the AFC.
07:05Their high is maybe better than anyone, but their lowest bet.
07:08What makes you say that?
07:09Is it just Lawrence having a bad game in the big moment?
07:12Yeah.
07:12Because they do everything pretty...
07:15Like, they don't really have a flaw to me.
07:16I mean, they got lit up by the Rams.
07:20They lost 35 to nothing.
07:22But they went into Denver and put a whooping on the Broncos' defense.
07:26So that game kind of scared me a little bit about Jacksonville.
07:29And it's about how you're playing now, not how you played in the middle of the season.
07:32They also lost to the Rams a long time ago, and that was before the Jacoby Myers trade,
07:36and they've been a very different team since that happened.
07:38He's been great for that.
07:40All right, let's get to Howard Picks the Bills.
07:42A tradition unlike any other.
07:45You hope that the NFL replay process blows up.
07:48It blows up in their face.
07:49You want to watch it self-destruct.
07:51Yes, I do.
07:51Which is the same thing as them wanting to hear you pick the Bills.
07:54No, it's completely different.
07:55I'm right.
07:56They're wrong.
07:56It's time for Howard to pick the Bills.
08:00I don't think people are probably thinking Barkley's going to run for like 250 in this game.
08:07He won't.
08:08He'll get his yards, but I do think the Bills will find a way to pull this one out.
08:13I'm going to go Bills winning in a one-score game with the score probably in the mid-to-upper 20s.
08:19All right.
08:19On WGR Sports Radio 550.
08:23This is why this segment is a waste of time.
08:25You just got to rub the top of the head.
08:26Then you're going to find out exactly what happens.
08:28You really weren't that far off.
08:29No, I mean, you were pretty close.
08:30I'll get skin burn if I do this.
08:32Well, yes, it should dry outside.
08:33Allen makes a throw, and it was pretty accurate.
08:35Hey, he didn't run for 250.
08:37And he didn't run for 250.
08:38They held him in check.
08:39All right.
08:39Let's get to Howard Picks the Bills.
08:40So we'll start with the Bills-Jets game, which I think is a pretty easy one.
08:44Nate's going to pick the field, and then we'll have Howard, who picked the Super Bowl last week.
08:49Bills will win the Super Bowl last week.
08:50We'll see what he does in the playoffs.
08:52But we'll start with the final game at Highmark Stadium, Bills and Jets.
08:55You're going to the final game, right?
08:57You got it, right?
08:58No.
08:58So you've seen the last of the stadium?
09:00I've been to plenty.
09:01All right.
09:02Yeah, I'm good.
09:04So the Jets, by Jets standards, they are bad even by their standards.
09:10But you're like Brady Cook?
09:12This is historically bad football these guys are playing.
09:15Even if the Bills play their backups, they should still beat the Jets.
09:18So I will take it.
09:19And Josh is going to do one snap, handoff, and trot off the field, right?
09:24Yep.
09:25Right.
09:25Amen.
09:26Take the Bills anyway.
09:27Do you know...
09:30I have to look up Mitch Trubisky's career record against the Jets.
09:33He's going to play a lot.
09:36The Jets on the season.
09:37Hey, Keon Coleman might actually suit up.
09:40Right.
09:42They are about to finish the year.
09:45There's something historic that could happen.
09:48The Jets don't have an interception this season.
09:49That's right.
09:50None.
09:50Zero.
09:50So if the Bills don't throw a pick on Sunday, I'll look up.
09:54I have to imagine that's the first time it's ever happened.
09:56No team had ever gone 15 games without a pick.
09:58Okay, so they would be the first time.
10:00This would be the first time ever.
10:01All right.
10:01So Bills over Jets.
10:03That would finish the season at 12-5.
10:05Which is a good record.
10:07It is.
10:08Kind of amazing one with the division.
10:09Except you didn't think New England was going to go possibly 14-3.
10:11All right, Nate.
10:12Week 18.
10:13What are we going to get?
10:14How about Colts at Texans?
10:18Texans.
10:19Jags over Titans?
10:21Yes.
10:21It's going to be a close game, though.
10:23Really?
10:24I think the Tigers have been playing everybody close.
10:25Chargers with Trey Lance at Denver.
10:28Trey Lance.
10:29It's going to be Denver.
10:30Denver's going to try to win that game for the one seed.
10:32Give me Denver.
10:32And finally, for the AFC.
10:36Oh, right.
10:36New England over Miami.
10:37Let's get that one.
10:38Let's just get that over with.
10:39Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Sunday night for the division.
10:43I'm asking you before.
10:44We really know if Lamar's playing.
10:45But who do you got winning that game?
10:47Steelers.
10:48That would be so Steelers, wouldn't it?
10:49Lose to Cleveland and beat Baltimore.
10:51All right.
10:51So Pittsburgh wins the division.
10:53And now we, real quick, who do you got in the NFC South?
10:56You want to go Carolina just because they're more likely?
10:58Let's go Carolina.
10:59Because if Atlanta beats New Orleans, Carolina's the division winner.
11:01It doesn't matter what to.
11:03Yeah, give me Carolina.
11:03All right.
11:04So we go to the postseason.
11:05The Bills are at the Jaguars, which is their most likely opponent right now.
11:09So Howard is where the McDermott era began in the postseason.
11:12It's a revenge game.
11:13Yeah.
11:14It's a revenge game for 9-6.
11:1710-6?
11:18Was it a regular season game?
11:19Ben Klayoff.
11:20Well, no.
11:20Wasn't there a 9-6 game against Urban Meyer?
11:23Yeah, yeah, yeah.
11:24That's the game I have will for.
11:26That's the Urban Meyer game.
11:26I've forgotten it.
11:27Pretty sure.
11:27And then, of course, the playoff loss.
11:29What was that?
11:3010-7?
11:30It was like 10-7.
11:31I will take the Bills to get a revenge victory in Jacksonville.
11:35That would be an impressive win.
11:36I think the Jags are good.
11:38Bills over Jaguars.
11:39Nate.
11:40Chargers at Patriots in round one.
11:43Give me the Patriots.
11:45Texans at Steelers.
11:46Texans.
11:47Yeah.
11:47That would set up in the second round of the AFC playoffs.
11:52Actually, I should have you pick the NFC in case Howard has them going all the way.
11:55Green Bay at Chicago?
11:57Chicago.
11:58L.A.
11:58at Philly?
11:59L.A.
12:01Niners at Panthers?
12:03Niners.
12:04Okay.
12:05AFC second round.
12:07Howard, you got Broncos hosting the Bills.
12:10Juicy.
12:10Sorry, that's the team I don't want them to face.
12:14That or Houston.
12:15That's the one I'm most excited to face.
12:17Their offense stinks.
12:18Defense is good, though.
12:19I get it.
12:19Defense is good.
12:20But the Bills could lose a 13-12 game again.
12:22Yes, they could.
12:23Yes, they could.
12:24So, I will take Denver.
12:26Denver to beat the Bills.
12:28In the divisional round.
12:29Yep.
12:29Excuse me.
12:30I just want to turn my phone off.
12:31Yeah, good idea.
12:31And stay off social media.
12:32Denver over Buffalo.
12:33Well, I guess we stop right there, then.
12:37That's it.
12:38You'll get out on time.
12:39We can get out on time.
12:40He just ended the season.
12:41In Denver.
12:42Do we want to maybe spend a couple minutes talking about the Knicks?
12:4523-9, huh?
12:47And I thought the coaching change was a bad idea.
12:49Me, too.
12:50He's been excellent.
12:50But he's playing.
12:51They're going deep in the bench and everything.
12:53Can we get the third NBA coach?
12:55I mean, how many other people have won it twice?
12:57Oh, with three different teams?
12:58Yes.
12:58You know, before you get rolling on the Knicks, maybe I do want to find something out from
13:01this exercise very quickly.
13:02I want to see how far you've got New England going, interestingly.
13:05So New England beating the Chargers.
13:07New England, Houston, around two.
13:08I got Houston.
13:09Houston?
13:10So you would have Denver, Houston, and the AFC Championship.
13:12Yep.
13:13And that is?
13:14The two best defenses in football.
13:15Low scoring.
13:16Oh, yes.
13:18Bad offenses, great defenses.
13:19Who wins it?
13:21I would take Houston.
13:22Houston?
13:23Yeah.
13:23If Houston goes to the Super Bowl with that offense.
13:26I know.
13:27Denver, though, you know, the funny thing is with them, I'm not a huge Bo Nix guy.
13:31Either am I.
13:31But I like him, but he makes, because their defense is so good and because all their games
13:37are so close, all he does is make a handful of plays in the fourth quarter and they end
13:41up winning football games.
13:42His average depth of target is like 30th in football.
13:46Do they almost remind you, like the way you said that made me think, aren't they kind of
13:50then like, not to this extreme?
13:54Are they almost like the Tebow Broncos?
13:57Ooh.
13:58Great defense.
13:59Their quarterbacks making plays in the fourth quarter.
14:00Not to the extreme.
14:00It's not that extreme.
14:02No, but that was the same concept.
14:04Right.
14:04But Tebow couldn't play quarterback.
14:04He didn't have to make a bunch of plays.
14:07Right.
14:08Because he didn't.
14:09No.
14:10No, yeah.
14:11But if he ever did, it was usually like end of game.
14:13I'm not as down on Bo Nix as a lot of people.
14:16Like, I think he's fine.
14:17But I just think that they don't push the ball down the field.
14:21And I don't think their run game's particularly good.
14:25Yeah.
14:25You know, I guess if I was going to say I'm afraid of Bo Nix in one thing, it's his feet.
14:29I think he can move.
14:31I don't think he uses it enough.
14:32Yeah, that wouldn't be why.
14:34I mean, I wouldn't be worried about facing Bo Nix.
14:36I don't think anybody would.
14:37I think the legs.
14:38I just don't.
14:38I'm worried about the Bills offense matching up against a defense that can just dominate.
14:43If that happens, and maybe that would happen against Houston, too, or maybe even Jacksonville,
14:47that would set up a different type of offseason.
14:51Because a lot of these offseasons have been following, oh, McDermott's defense got torched
14:55by Mahomes or whoever.
14:57This would be, all right, we're going to the offseason, and the offense got shut down at
15:00that end of the season.
15:01Well, look, and the offense, we'll see how they do.
15:04Forget the Jets game.
15:05The stats, whatever happens Sunday, meaningless.
15:07Yep.
15:07So, in theory, they would win a wild card game, right?
15:11We have them winning a wild card game.
15:12Yeah, beating Jacksonville.
15:14The offense did not look good against Cleveland.
15:18It was even worse against Philly.
15:20If the offense tanks in the postseason, look, they're going to, they have to redo the wide
15:24receiver group in the offseason anyway.
15:26Shakir's back.
15:27After that, do whatever you want to do.
15:30Right.
15:31Because they have to find threats to help this passing game.
15:35They have to make this offense scary again.
15:37All right.
15:38Howard's got them losing in the divisional round to Denver.
15:40Final game at Highmark.
15:42I'm just going to keep saying it.
15:43I might say next segment, too.
15:45Did you know we're on video now?
15:47Yeah, I saw there's a little camera.
15:48That's why the lights are on.
15:49It's harder to run from your takes nowadays.
15:52You're retired at the right time.
15:53They're on TikTok now.
15:54I can't run from takes.
15:55I'd pull a hamstring anyway.
15:58Nice to see you, boys.
15:59Thank you, Howard.
15:59Happy New Year.
16:00Yes, happy New Year.
16:00Happy New Year.
16:02Howard picks the bills.
16:03We will have Paul coming up in the 9 o'clock hour.
16:05Sabres on a nine-game win streak.
16:06From Howard to Paul.
16:07Howard to Paul.
16:09I don't know, boys.
16:10Go ahead.
16:11You might as well just retire today.
16:12It won't get any better.
16:13No.
16:14He thought we were going to make an old joke.
16:15I was going to say a handsome joke.
16:18Well, you go from old to older.
16:19That's Howard to Paul.
16:20That's all right.
16:21We're getting older with Paul.
16:23Coming up.
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