Clayton Collins on the biggest stories of 2025

HousingWire

On today’s episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with HousingWire CEO Clayton Collins about the biggest stories of 2025 and what he expects for 2026.   Related to this episode:   Latest News - HousingWire  https://develop.housingwire.com/latest-news/  HousingWire | YouTube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠  https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXDD_3y3LvU60vac7eki-6Q  More info about HousingWire  https://lnk.bio/housingwire   To learn more about Trust & Will visit trustandwill.com   The HousingWire Daily podcast brings the full picture of the most compelling stories in the housing market reported across HousingWire. Each morning, listen to editor in chief Sarah Wheeler talk to leading industry voices and get a deeper look behind the scenes of the top mortgage and real estate.

Transcript

00:00Welcome, everyone. My guest today is HousingWire CEO, Clayton Collins, to talk about the biggest

00:11stories of 2025 and how those topics are setting us up for 2026. Before we begin, I want to thank

00:18our sponsor, Trust in Will, for making this episode possible. Clayton, welcome back to the

00:23podcast. Sarah Wheeler, I'm happy to be here. Clayton Collins, if you're going to call me

00:27Sarah, Will. I'm happy to have you here. I love our topic today, which is really looking back over

00:32some of the biggest stories of the year, the things that happened over 2025 that really have impacted

00:39our industry the most. And wow, what a year. Can we just say 2025 from a news perspective?

00:47Unbelievable. The new normal is all unbelievable, Sarah. We are in a multi-year cycle where

00:54people say, wow, this year was insane. But I am confident that we will make sure

01:01next year likely is just as much movement in the market.

01:06I love it. Yeah, I do. Okay. So when I look back over some of our top stories, there's lots of ways

01:11we can look at like, what are the biggest stories? If we just look at like what stories got the most

01:16traffic on our site, I would say they're dominated by mortgage rate stories because that continues to

01:23be such a huge and will always be our bread and butter and also what the industry looks to us to

01:29find. And then we also, we had a lot of things happen this year. I'd zoom out and say it wasn't

01:33just rates. It was everything that impacts the cost of borrowing and the cost of a home ownership. So

01:38really like the top single story. Now, if you add up all the rates stories, yeah, rates dominate.

01:44So the top single story was Fannie Mae's credit score update and changes to FICO, the minimum FICO

01:53score being included in DU. Yep. And I think this is, I'm just going to toot our own horn here for a

01:58minute. I think this is where we really shine, right? This is the level of detail you're going to

02:01get from HousingWire. And we understand why this is important to our industry in a way that like the

02:06big, you know, say a Wall Street Journal is not, is not going to dig down into. Yeah. So,

02:11and I guess this change is now officially in effect now as of November 16th. Is that right?

02:17That's right. Sarah, why do you think the industry turned so much attention to this announcement

02:23on Fannie Mae credit score requirements? Yeah, I think this is, it just goes to the heart of

02:29something that is a pain point for our industry, right? Which is it costs a lot of money, relatively

02:35speaking, to get credit scores, to pull credit scores. And credit scores are at the heart of how they

02:41determine who is, you know, who's worthy to get a loan and what their risk is. And so for years,

02:48we know there have been lots of alternative credit scores out there available, even from FICO itself,

02:54right? And so it's always like, which one are they going to pick? What, how many can they choose from?

03:00What do they have to have? Because, you know, Fannie and Freddie set the standard. They're the ones

03:05buying all the loans. And so I feel like this story really revved people up because they're like,

03:08this is top of mind for everyone. Yeah. And Pulte, who's, you know, serving as the chair of

03:15both Fannie and Freddie seems very motivated during competition into credit scoring. But the, you know,

03:21I would call it, I was gonna call it backchannel, but it's not. The mortgage industry, like leaders,

03:25trade associations have been pretty vocal that some of these changes are not impacting the cost of

03:33origination and that the mortgage banks are still carrying a expanding cost related to credit

03:41scores, which they, you know, point at and say stands in the way of consumer access.

03:47I think that's why this story got so many people reading it is because they want to know how this

03:52impacts, you know, of course they, they care about the competition. They care about the quality.

03:56They also care about the bottom line. And what we, what we found in this and follow-up stories is it

04:00doesn't seem like credit scores have gone down. Why is that? Why, you know, how do we solve that?

04:06Credit score costs have not gone down. Credit score costs. Yes. Thank you.

04:11If you listen to Logan, the FICO's are at all time highs. That's, that's going to be on his

04:16tombstone, right? Yeah. Yeah. That's right. Credit score costs have not gone down. And I think we also

04:22know that people are putting in a lot more applications. They're shopping more. And so that

04:26means more costs every time that, every time they go to a lender that, you know, I mean that the

04:30lender is running a credit score on somebody who's not going to close a loan. Yeah. So credit score

04:35is very important topic on cost to access financing. Then we jump forward to the third biggest story

04:41before we get into rates, Sarah. And, um, that's about one of the biggest costs of, of owning. And,

04:48uh, we all know that owning a home is not just, um, principal and interest. It's also taxes and

04:52insurance and, uh, property taxes as, as home prices have risen in most parts of the country,

04:59um, this year. And in the last five years, especially property taxes become an increasingly

05:04meaningful expense for, for homeowners coast to coast, particularly in some of the high growth

05:10markets like, like Florida. Um, so we had a big story that drew a ton of attention on governor

05:15DeSantis wanting to ban property taxes in Florida. Um, uh, he put that message out there. Um, now,

05:23clearly there's a lot of steps between here and there. Um, and he is using the, you know, the,

05:28using the, the airwaves to, to test, um, consumer and, and voter reaction to this, to this idea.

05:37But, um, the idea of eliminating property taxes in Florida, a state that does not have income tax is a

05:42pretty significant, um, proposal. It is. And people, I mean, like you said, this is one of the

05:49top stories for the year because it's also like, Hey, if they can do it, could Texas do it? Could

05:54other States, you know, set up in the same way, do that. Um, the devil's in the details. It's very

05:59unclear exactly how they would recoup the, the money that they get from property taxes because they

06:04don't have that state income tax and whether there's a viable path there. Uh, but huge interest in

06:10that. And, you know, obviously taxes, um, I feel like this whole year affordability, right? We talk

06:15about affordability in the past that might've been, um, just around mortgage rates. Like you said,

06:21now it's insurance. Now it's property taxes, that monthly payment gets hit on all of these things.

06:26And so, and I feel like actually, as we're doing, um, affordability, I'm sorry, as we're doing, uh,

06:31calls with people for our housing economic summit, it doesn't matter what we've slotted them in to

06:36talk about affordability keeps coming up. Everybody we talked to, like, this is what we're all trying

06:41to solve for. Yeah. It's a tough issue because it, you know, we talk about homeownership as, uh,

06:46not just, uh, a tool to help improve financial outcomes and build net worth, but also homeownership.

06:51We see the benefits of, um, uh, stronger families and health and education access. And as, um, you know,

06:58somebody who grew up in born and raised in Florida, have a lot of deep ties to the state. Um, you know,

07:03I grew up hearing the hearing about that. The tax base was already, um, you know, not what it is in

07:10other States because a lot of the retirees that moved to Florida don't want to pay for education

07:14twice. Uh, we paid for this when we lived in Illinois or New Jersey or Connecticut. We don't

07:19want to come pay for it again in Florida. And that's a, um, that's a real consideration. If you,

07:25uh, if eliminate property taxes and a no income tax state, does that impact some of the community

07:31benefits of, of, of homeownership, particularly educational access? Um, now today I don't

07:38have kids in Florida and the only people, well, everybody I know there now is retired. So, um,

07:42it's a, uh, I can understand the push and pull from both sides of the, the voter base, um, depending

07:48on, on, on life, uh, stage of, of how you may feel about, um, this type of proposal.

07:55I think you and I are both in Texas and affordability is so interesting when you look just

07:59at Texas, I've been here for decades. And so affordability, Texas was always the affordability

08:04state, right? It's very pro pro business. And then, you know, taxes are low. Well, property

08:09taxes aren't low, but, um, but you know, no income tax, all this other stuff, but yet we had the run

08:14up after COVID in, in home prices. So now that part of the equation, it's not like it used to be in

08:20Texas. Yeah. Not like it used to be still, um, still an affordable state on, uh, when you,

08:26when you look at cost of living compared to, to wages, especially when you get outside of some of

08:32the, the, the core metropolitan areas. Um, but it's not what it used to be. It's not, um, cheap

08:37housing. Like many people used to think, you know, at the beginning of the year we had, of course,

08:40the California wildfires. And so those dominated the early stories and then, you know, informed the,

08:47the insurance conversation throughout the year that this is, you know, because it doesn't just

08:51impact people in their state and impacts people, you know, all over Florida, um, actually had some

08:57good news. We, we just did a story about how their, uh, property insurance, they are having more people

09:01come back into Florida. So, um, competition helps lower prices a little bit. And, um, it's actually,

09:07you know, people I've talked to from Florida feel like there is some, uh, optimism there. What,

09:12what do you think as someone who's a native Floridian? Yeah. I mean, the last few years,

09:15there's been 18 new, uh, insurers enter the state last year, there was, I think there's four or five

09:20or, or, or six new insurers who started writing policies in the state of Florida. Um, I'm confident

09:25that we have some Floridian audience members listening. And if we say the insurance crisis

09:29in Florida is solved, we will get some angry emails. I believe that the issues still persist.

09:35And I'd love to hear from, hear from the audience, uh, and particularly our originators who were,

09:40um, you know, uh, seeing how insurance impacts PITI every, every single day. Um, are they seeing

09:47some, some relief in insurance because the, the surveys, the trade group information, the new

09:53market entrance would all, would all point toward positive movement. But when I talk to originators

09:59in the state of Florida, insurance is still a major issue. So, um, I, this is one where,

10:06you know, you listen to the trade groups and listen to the researchers, listen to the insurance

10:11companies. Um, and I don't know if I believe what I'm, I'm hearing, uh, until I hear it from

10:16the practitioners who are actually out there in, in market, Sarah. I think that's a great

10:21perspective. I also think that, uh, we know that migration into Florida and Texas have slowed down.

10:27And I think that that's part of it, right? People are looking at like, where do I want to move? Do I

10:32want to move to a place that's going to have a wildfire or hurricane or 10 or whatever? And

10:36so like, those are the, you know, you never even talk to those buyers cause they've decided not to

10:41move to Florida. So, I mean, that, that also has a, has an effect. I mean, I'll speak for myself,

10:46but I only want to live places that have, uh, hurricanes, wildfire, wild, uh, fires, um,

10:52tornadoes or hailstorms. Uh, I'm pretty staunch in my view of what parts of the country are

10:58exciting to live in. And unfortunately, um, there's some, uh, some natural disasters to contend with.

11:04Listen, I think Vermont, Vermont doesn't have any of those things that I know of. So there we go.

11:10But maple syrup floods, you can, you can have your maple syrup floods and I'll keep my tornadoes and

11:14hurricanes. You know what? The rest of the country agrees with you. This is why, you know,

11:19tech, we talk about Texas and Florida so much, you know, 40% of the inventories, their home sales

11:23are there. Um, we know it's, it's growing. So, you know, switching gears a little bit, a lot of the

11:28stories that dominated, um, were coming out of DC. We have a really, um, we have a really active

11:34White House and Trump administration on housing. What on the first day of, uh, Trump's new term,

11:41he put out an emergency bill on housing and it has not stopped. And so, um, in our space,

11:47that's pretty unusual, um, for us to have so much news coming out of that. And so many policy proposals

11:52that could impact things. Um, I would say the, the two biggest stories there were probably the

11:57tariffs, uh, when, uh, and the effect then on, uh, mortgage rates. And then recently the 50 year

12:04mortgage, which, um, again was, you know, it wasn't necessarily, it could have been just something

12:08they're throwing up to be like, do people like this idea? Is this a good idea? Um, our, our industry,

12:14uh, the resounding voice was no, I know not everyone feels that way, but, um, so that's been

12:19really interesting. And, you know, as a news person, um, great to have so much things happening

12:25around housing. I, I used to listen to debates and read policy things and, uh, you know, whole

12:30platforms, nothing about housing. So it's great to have, you know, a conversation going on all the

12:36time. You may not like it, you may like it, but there's a, there's a lot happening in housing.

12:40Yeah. As leaders in the housing industry, I think we stand in a, in an interesting spot. So we've

12:45talked about this before in the podcast, Sarah, housing wire exists to help housing leaders make

12:49better decisions faster. And one of the things that we are seeing out of, out of Washington,

12:53DC is from administration director of polity is utilizing, um, uh, the sharing of information

13:00as a public whiteboard. And there's ideas that are shared very, very early, um, that just due to

13:07process and diligence, um, there's a lot of steps between the idea of a policy and the enactment of

13:14policy. So when I think about like the role of leaders in the housing industry, we, we should,

13:18and do have a voice in how our political leaders, um, and leaders in Washington, DC, uh, view the

13:28industry that we operate in, uh, accept and listen to feedback from, from leaders. But at the same

13:34time, um, I think there's, uh, folks in the industry who, who, who need to like be really clear that like

13:40the 50 year mortgage is not a product they can sell right now. And, um, so like, I think it's a,

13:45it's, uh, interesting delineation that has to be made that housing wire exists to help housing

13:49leaders make better decisions faster. Um, a lot of the ideas that have been discussed on the, um,

13:55out of our, our, our, our, from our political leaders and the pages of every newspaper media

14:00outlet in the, in the world, including housing wire, a lot of that is, um, still in, in process or,

14:06or, or, or idea phase that not only requires, um, diligent, uh, structuring, but also multiple layers

14:15of congressional and presidential approval before it's actually policy or product. Um, but, uh,

14:21nonetheless, important things to talk about because, uh, when an industry reacts and talks about the pros

14:28and cons of a, of an idea, let's use a 50 year mortgage, for example, um, uh, I, I, our, our

14:35political leaders listen. And, um, if the product comes to fruition or not, we'll see, but the feedback

14:40loops from the industry certainly will influence the structure and implementation of product releases.

14:47Um, so it's a, it's a tough one for me because I, I like, I'm an action oriented person. I want to

14:51talk about the things that we can control, not the things we can't. Uh, however, um, we can control some

14:56of these things if we have the right voice, um, through our trade organizations, like the

15:00mortgage bankers association, national association of realtors, the CHLA, the national, uh, the home

15:06builders, uh, association. So it's a, um, important to understand what's happening in DC. It's important

15:11to have a voice, but, um, a lot of, uh, what we've covered from, covered from political perspective as

15:15far from enacted. Yeah, no, I agree. I was one of the challenges, like, uh, is this something that is

15:21just a, an idea today or is there, is there some source behind it, but agree with you that one of

15:26our most important things that we do, you know, we, we are, we help people make decisions faster,

15:32uh, industry leaders. We also amplify our industry's concerns, right? We have a platform. We,

15:38that's what we do. We want to make sure that those trade organizations get their, you know,

15:43that they're representing, you know, all of the people, all the various factions. And so, yeah,

15:48I think that's been really interesting. Um, another huge story out of DC has been the demolition of the

15:54CFPB. Um, so, you know, when I started at HousingWire in 2013, we were writing stories about

16:00CFPB and their, you know, shenanigans and really just, um, just some really, uh, difficult things

16:07they were doing for the industry on a regular basis. We've, we've had waves since then. Uh,

16:11but now we're really focused on like, what does this mean? So what is that, you know, how does the

16:16industry run their business knowing that like this part of the enforcement might be gone,

16:21but that might just seed the state enforcement that's coming? What does that look like? How do

16:26people get ready? And so a lot of our stories have been follow-ups on like, what does this mean?

16:30And moving forward, Sarah, the topic, um, that, that keeps on giving and the one that has all of

16:36our audience members across mortgage and real estate, hang on every word are, uh, remarks from

16:41our federal federal reserve chair, Mr. Jerome Powell. Um, man, he has, uh, his words have mattered this

16:48year. They really have. They've moved markets. A 10 year yield has moved, uh, sometimes contrary to

16:53what he says, but oftentimes it's like the actions of the fed, uh, are one thing. And then in the

16:57press conference that he holds afterwards, he says something that, you know, sends markets the other

17:02way. And it is crazy. It's, it's crazy. I don't remember another time like this, as we said, the new

17:07normal and our audience really cares about this because this impacts them every day. Yeah. It impacts them

17:12every day. And I'll, and I'll admit that, um, if you're not a, a fed watcher, the, the nuance and

17:19the language can be, can be hard to pick up. I've learned a lot from, from Logan. So Logan's clearly

17:23on this show, uh, talking about what, um, the fed chair, Mr. Jerome Powell has to say, uh, in his,

17:31in his monthly remarks, but he's also doing, Logan's doing daily videos on what's happening in the

17:36rate environment, not just talking about fed action, but also talking about jobs, numbers, employment,

17:41uh, trade, all the economic drivers that, that do impact interest rates every single day. If you

17:48haven't checked out those, um, weekly up or I'm sorry, daily updates, we published on housing wire

17:53for, for our members. And, um, I think we're publishing, uh, a weekly one now on, on our social

17:58accounts. Um, those are worth checking out. We'll drop a link in the, in the show notes, but, um, I, I

18:03will, you know, the following, uh, fed announcements and messaging for a while. And Logan still has a,

18:11a nuanced pickup on what the words actually mean that, uh, has been very helpful for me in

18:16interpreting the market. You know, we benefit from the fact that Logan, uh, he will, he'll be the

18:20first to say he has no life outside of that. He loves that he eats and breathes that. And so I

18:25think our audience really benefits because like no one's nothing's going to happen that he's not

18:30thinking about is what I would say in this, in the economic area. All right, Sarah, I got one big

18:35topic when I hit before we, we close this one out and give people their, um, uh, uh, a happy

18:41and celebratory, uh, new years. So the other big trend this year, um, you know, it's been the

18:46culmination of a lot of different news stories has been some of the consolidation plays and in

18:52mortgage and real estate, uh, specifically rockets acquisition of Mr. Cooper and red fin, which I've

18:59talked about on this show several times, talked about it, uh, from our event stages, um, with the

19:04leaders of, of these companies and, uh, truly a, a phenomenal case study on a, a business operator,

19:12um, making a big bet on going end to end from being a, uh, a consumer direct and retail and

19:20wholesale originator at rocket to really stepping up, um, with the acquisition of Mr. Cooper to become

19:26the largest servicer and, um, and, and red fin going into the, the portal game and accessing the

19:31consumer early in their home search journey. Huge, huge. We knew that this was going to be a

19:36consolidation year. I don't know that we knew how much consolidation we were going to see.

19:39And then, you know, I, I just interviewed, uh, David Spector, uh, CEO of Penny Mac, and he talked

19:44about this year being the consolidation of the consolidation. And you can really just see it like

19:49in that. And also it, it highlights just the incredible role of servicing right now, uh, for the,

19:56you know, for originators who also, uh, control the servicing or have, uh, MSRs. I mean, that's,

20:02that's huge for their bottom line. It's also huge for their, the way that they can recapture,

20:06um, those clients. So huge news there. We know we saw, uh, UWM this month, right. Uh, bought two

20:13harbors or it announced they're going to acquire two harbors, which owns a round point mortgage

20:18servicing. So another, you know, a big move there, I think. Yeah. Massive move. I mean,

20:23that's UWM bringing in, I believe the number was about 180 billion and, and, and servicing

20:28volume and NMSRs. Uh, that is a, a lot of, um, homeowners that are now in the United wholesale

20:35mortgage ecosystem, you know, helping, uh, Matt Ishbia and his team further their, um, further

20:42their ambition of, of serving more homeowners and having a more in-house end to end experience

20:48with, with servicing under the UWM roof. Um, I, I, I'm, I'm confident there'll be a lot of

20:54messaging coming out of that announced deal on what it means for, for the brokers that UWM serves.

21:00Absolutely. You know, we follow those giant companies because you know, what they do impacts

21:04everybody, but that doesn't mean we also don't look at like, you know, the next level down or,

21:09or, or smaller lenders and say, you know, what are they doing? That's making them successful.

21:13I think, especially at our events, we're always putting people on stage that represent the whole

21:18industry, not just like, Oh, here's what the top two are doing because, um, people want to know what

21:23they're doing, but they also want to hear really practical things from successful lenders and

21:28services who are, who are not the top two. Yeah. So, um, and then we'd be a miss if we didn't,

21:34uh, talk about, uh, one of the biggest deals on the real estate side, Sarah, and that's the,

21:39the, the, the planned and proposed acquisition by compass, um, of anywhere, the former,

21:45former realogy business. And, uh, I don't think that deal is scheduled to close until later in,

21:50in 2026. So still, still a little bit out, but that is such a massive acquisition from a, um,

21:58agent count perspective, from a brand perspective as a, as a deal maker, the, the complexity of that

22:04one, um, going from, from compass's model to acquiring these, these franchise businesses with

22:09legacy, strong legacy brands. Um, I'm fascinated to see how this one plays out operationally and how

22:17Robert Raffigan and the team at compass choose to integrate, um, the, the, the anywhere business

22:24businesses and all the brands and franchisees associated with it. You have a lot of, uh, business

22:31practice differences right there, right? Just a model difference of, of how they approach things.

22:36And I love compasses, huge, brave, you know, uh, bet there. And also that they're, they're standing

22:43their ground on some really important things. Um, as far as like, yes, they, they get to control,

22:47like, um, their listings and, and when they put those on the MLS and when those private listings,

22:53um, count towards that. Um, so I feel like they've made some bold moves this year, uh, and that whole,

22:59the portal wars, the, the MLS situation, just stay tuned. I mean, we have, I, at one point we,

23:05at one point Zillow had seven different lawsuits against it and from, from like government, from

23:11homeowners, from MLS, from, I mean, it's, it's a very contentious space right now, a very litigious

23:17space over on the real estate side. And, and we're watching closely. So if you're anything like me and

23:23the clock is counting down toward midnight and other folks are, are, are grabbing their champagne and,

23:29and getting ready to watch the ball drop. I'll be in a corner with somebody else talking about

23:34the housing market. So hopefully this conversation, um, you know, gave you a reminder of some of the

23:40things that you have experienced, learned, read, listened to, and in 2025, so you can, um, uh,

23:46impress your colleagues and bore your family to tears with your housing market intelligence. Uh,

23:51it's been quite the year. I'm confident 2026, um, will be quite the year as well, but, but hopefully

23:57one where we get to continue to experience some of the benefits of seeing mortgage rates and a,

24:03and a moderately palatable band in the low sixes and, uh, you know, seeing inventory ride in a range

24:10that, that gives buyers some, some, some confidence that they can, uh, submit offers that will get

24:17accepted and some sellers, the confidence to, to come off the sidelines. And, and we can put up a year

24:22with some, um, you know, what's, what's likely to be some, some moderate growth. If I, uh, if I lean

24:28back on some of the, the forecasts that Sarah and her team have published from economists so far,

24:33and, um, I know there'll be more forecasts published in the, in the next few weeks as we get

24:38ready for the housing economic summit on, on February 10th. Uh, but, um, from what I'm seeing so

24:43far, um, I'm going into 2026 with, um, with, with confidence, but not exuberance. And, uh,

24:52but I am like gap foot on the gas, like go, going forward, ready to win, ready to serve you,

24:58our, our, our users and audience members, um, ready to pursue a few growth opportunities. Uh,

25:04but, uh, most importantly, ready to, to help housing professionals make better decisions faster and

25:09build a better housing economy. I love it. Clayton, thanks so much for being on as always. And,

25:14uh, you know, uh, cheers, uh, to a new year. Can't wait to, to be in it with you.

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