Sarah and Logan Unplugged: Christmas edition

HousingWire

On today’s episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami about both economic and personal topics.   Related to this episode:   Logan Mohtashami  https://www.housingwire.com/author/logan-mohtashami/  HousingWire Youtube  https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCXDD_3y3LvU60vac7eki-6Q  More info about HousingWire  https://lnk.bio/housingwire   To learn more about Trust & Will visit trustandwill.com   The HousingWire Daily podcast brings the full picture of the most compelling stories in the housing market reported across HousingWire. Each morning, listen to editor in chief Sarah Wheeler talk to leading industry voices and get a deeper look behind the scenes of the top mortgage and real estate.

Transcript

00:00Welcome, everyone. My guest today for this unplugged episode is lead analyst Logan Motoshami,

00:11where we'll cover a few economic topics, but also get into some more personal questions on

00:16this holiday weekend. Before we dive in, I want to thank our sponsor, Trust in Will,

00:20for making this episode possible. Logan, welcome to the podcast. I cannot take you seriously right

00:26now. What? The chart daddies really chart zaddy, so there's all these technology things that get

00:34you to make your face look better as you age. I don't know, this has red lights. It reminds me of

00:40Battlestar Galactica. I'm just like, okay. See, this is what we need. This is why this is an

00:48unplugged episode. There will be some economic talk. There will also be just random facts about

00:54you and me, and that's what we're doing, because this is a holiday week. This is going to be

01:00published on the 26th, so I hope everybody had a wonderful Christmas, and let's jump into it. Okay,

01:06so first, let's talk about a little bit of economic things. I think one of the things people want to

01:11know right now is like 2026. Your forecast isn't out yet, but what do you see? So, I mean, to me,

01:17it's my job is always to make sure to hold everyone's hand every single day and go with it

01:25because variables can change, and what I like about 2026 more than the other years is that we finally

01:33have active inventory to a level to where price growth is slowing down, and the buyers can get

01:38back into the game without feeling like, okay, if I'm going to go in, I'm going against five people.

01:44People don't understand how much healthier it is that the multiple bids are away, right? The unhealthy

01:51housing market of 2020 to the very unhealthy housing market of 2021 to the savagely unhealthy,

01:57that's gone, right? There's choices, and we try to, with our slope of the curve and how we look at

02:05active inventory, new listings, price cut percentages, historical data, demographics, credit data,

02:11there's all these things we go into it, but we always want to be there every single day, so

02:14if something does change negative or positive, we go with it, right? We don't hide anything, and

02:20the framework of the 2026 forecast is still with a much better backdrop, and then we'll give everyone

02:28details and things to look for because you don't want to be the person that just stays constantly wrong

02:34the entire year just for attention. You want to see if there's anything that shifts both positive

02:40and negative, or maybe we just have another flat year all the way around, but it's more of a guiding

02:48principle and things to do because that's why we created the weekend tracker, just to give everyone,

02:53hey, heads up, this is it. This is what it's going to be like in two or three months, so we go with it.

02:58Now, that weekly data, I think, is so important, and it helped you to identify. I mean, you look at

03:03stuff all the time. It helped you to identify and also let the readers know when the market shifted

03:09in mid-June. It was remarkable. Yeah, in 2024 as well. 2024. 2024, I think, was confusing because

03:17purchase application data was still showing negative year over year, so people thought

03:20sales were still falling, but our pending contract data was showing that it's growing, but the week to

03:26week, that's why whenever we take our demand data, we show our pending sales weekly total purchase

03:33application data, and we just go with it, right? And that's how it works. You can't massage the data.

03:40If home sales are rising, 300,000, 400,000, it'll show if it's falling, 300,000, 400,000, but we work

03:46off the principle like we talked about for a few years now. It's just really rare to get existing home

03:52sales below 4 million, and most of the prints in 2026 were 4 million and above, and then now we just

04:00go on, and again, a lot of this reminds me of the 1980s, and now that we have three years of the books

04:05after the big sales crash, it does look like the 1980s, but the 1980s had two recessions, and rates

04:11fell noticeably. If rates were at 4.5% today, sales are rising. If they're 5.5%, sales are rising,

04:18so we just work off of that and figure out what needs to happen for sales to rise, or what needs

04:24to happen for sales to fall. I love it. Okay, more personal question. What are you watching right now?

04:29What do you like to, when you turn on the TV, what's your go-to series, or what do you like to watch?

04:35Football. I love football. I mean, I hate it when football is over. I love college football. I love NFL.

04:43Most of the people can see and even hear my 49ers talking points. Just a huge fan.

04:54Bang, bang, Niner gang. Yeah, that's what we love to do. So I'm a sports guy, man. I just-

04:59You are a sports guy. Okay, how many fantasy teams do you have?

05:02Two. I only like to do one, but because of Housing Wire has their own, I thought, you know,

05:10I'll do two, but I just, I like, I always like doing just one, so you got to own it, right? You

05:15got to put everything into that. I never kind of thought, like, people, there's some people that

05:18have, like, 20, and I was like, what's the point of that, right? You know, so you put your value into

05:23that, but fantasy football has been great, you know, it's just because it makes more people watch

05:28a lot of the games. But what about Sarah Wheeler? Outside of bossing Logan, you know,

05:34all year round. What does Sarah Wheeler watch? What do I watch? Let's see, right now I'm watching

05:41The Diplomat, so love that. It's with the lady who used to be, oh, Carrie, can't remember her last

05:48name, used to be on The Americans. I love anything that's, like, political intrigue, mystery kind of

05:54stuff. I watch a lot of true crime. I'm up to date on all of the true crime. You go to, like,

06:00the true crime Comic-Con thing, don't you? I do. It's called, it's called Crime-Con. It's not like,

06:05it's not like Crime-Con, I mean, Comic-Con where people don't dress up, stuff like that. But yes,

06:10I am up to date on every probably big, big case, high-profile case out there right now. So, you

06:17know. Speaking of which, before Housing Wire, what job did you do that just made you cringe?

06:25Wait, a job I didn't like? Or, yeah, something that, something he did before Housing Wire that

06:32made you, like, cringe. You think, oh, man. Okay, well, way, way back in the day, I was a cook at a,

06:40like, a place like Chili's. It wasn't Chili's. And Logan, I am not, I'm not a great cook. I'm an okay

06:46cook. I'm a good family cook. But at the time, I was, like, 18, 19. I not cooked hardly anything in

06:53my life. And I told the person this. And they made me the line cook anyway. And then the guy

06:57who was training me quit. And so it was literally, lunch rush was totally on me. It pretty much,

07:03I mean, I could do that today, no problem. But at the time, it was so bad. And so after two weeks of

07:09me trying and failing, we came to a mutual understanding that I should probably find

07:13another line of work. And I was so glad because it was so stressful. I'm like, and when my family,

07:18when I told them that, because I was in DC, and they were like, they hired you as a cook? And

07:24they're like, do they know you don't know how to cook? And I was like, yes, I told them that.

07:28So it was awful. So that was my worst job ever. Wow. Okay. Okay. What about you? Worst job?

07:34You know, I was a high school basketball coach, actually, for five years in the previous century. But

07:41I got to tell you that one of the most embarrassing things that I cringe about,

07:45which I know some people are still trying to find the video of.

07:48I know what you're going to say. I know.

07:51It's like, you know, I did some commercial print acting and modeling work in the last decade. I

07:58used to have blonde hair. I used to have blonde hair. In the last decade or the last century?

08:02Excuse me, last century. Yeah. And, you know, I, because of my blonde, because of my hair,

08:07my hair was blonde and it was just like the roots were, so it was, it was funky. I looked like

08:11Lion King, Simba, you know, so I had, and I remember what one day they just, they just,

08:18a director saw me. He's like, I just, I need you to come to the studio right now and film something.

08:24And I was like, what? Me? You're talking to me? Yes. Yes. You got the hair. Just come on. So

08:27I go there and I'm thinking they're, they're making a commercial. I, this is the first like

08:34official commercial I've ever done, but they have me dancing, you know, and you know, uh,

08:41they were selling their product and they have me dancing. And, and I was thinking to myself,

08:45there was wind blowing and everything, but I was still a high school basketball coach.

08:50And what occurred was I was thinking, nobody's ever going to see this. And I don't have, cause I

08:56have, I think I'm like a, you know, uh, an 18 year old girl, like dancing in front of me. We're

09:00supposed to be in a club and everything. And I was like, I, I, that's this, that's not me.

09:04This hair might make you think it is, but it isn't. So what, what happened, which was still

09:09cringy to me is that this was for a studio. And then when the, when the product was finally done

09:17and they sent it out, I said, I'm not, I'm, I wasn't going to tell anybody about it. Cause I was

09:20so embarrassed, but the kids that I coached, you know, they all saw this video and then they told

09:29everybody. So I'm going in, I got the whistle ready to go for basketball practice. And then

09:33all the kids are doing the dance. And I sat there and I was just like, you know, uh, and I just,

09:42I just, I, I sat there and I was like, if anybody says anything, you guys are doing 10 suicides each,

09:48you know, and all that. So they all became quiet, but yeah, that, that was cringe. That was as cringe

09:54again. And I, and I mean, I've done some crazy auditions over the years, but, uh, uh, auditioning

10:01for a Snickers commercial, you know, for, uh, for, uh, for a Superbowl, you know, where I was a

10:07NBA basketball rookie and I was talking all this trash and we're in the, uh, we're in the shower and,

10:14you know, all the, all the older players hate me. And I drop a bar of soap and tell everybody,

10:20hey, you guys pick it up and no, you pick it up. And this is stickers, right? You open the

10:24Snickers bar going to be here for a while. So that would have been very cringe back then.

10:29Oh my gosh. Thankfully.

10:31But I would pay to get a hold of that too.

10:33It was, let me tell you something. We were the final two and they thought it was way too racy

10:38for the 1990s. So I was like, thank you, you know, but, but that's, that's the cringiest story I have.

10:45Cause I really loved coaching basketball, but, um, but, but kids can be brutal, man. I mean,

10:50kids are the, Oh, they were, they were just, they were doing the dance. They, they had,

10:54they had their hair, like, you know, my hair and they're like, Oh, what was that about? You know,

10:58what's this, you know, it was, it was terrible. I sat there, I'm like, Oh, you know, I have to do

11:04this, but I don't want it. It's crazy.

11:05I've heard from, you know, other people who did, uh, modeling work and, and you're, you have no idea how

11:10they're going to use those images. And then it comes up with this super embarrassing, like

11:14pharmaceutical product. And there's your picture. And like, Oh yeah. Oh, you're just,

11:19you're just a, like, I knew I was done when they were trying to teach me how to do the catwalk.

11:27And I was like, and then I had some like 10 year old girls screaming at me that I had no idea what

11:33I'm doing. And I was just like, you know, man, I'm a ball player. I'm not doing this. So I quit,

11:39I quit on that. Like that was a, that was the thing. And, and, and I got into it because one

11:43of your friends was like, Hey, you should come do this. I mean, it wasn't like your lifelong dream.

11:47No. Yeah. And it was just like, I remember getting a Tilly's commercial, like a Tilly's

11:51contract. I was going to be a Tilly's model Tilly's. Oh my God. I can't believe I'm saying

11:54this. Oh, I was a Tilly's model for a year. So I had four seasons to do this, but I broke my nose

12:01two days before the photo shoot, you know? So I was just like, the Lord is telling me not this move.

12:06You're going to be the chart daddy in about 20, 30, 30 years. So you need to start doing

12:10that. So get, get, get out of here. You know,

12:13That is so funny. Oh my gosh. You come in with a broken nose. They're like, this is not model

12:18behavior, sir. This is not what we expect, you know?

12:21Now, now did you always want to, uh, uh, write and edit? Was that, was that always the game plan?

12:26Yep. From the time I was young, I wanted to either write books or especially work on newspapers,

12:31love of my life, uh, newspapers. Very sad to me that, um, so many of them have gone under,

12:37but I feel so lucky because I work for an independent news company within housing wire,

12:43like at, well, housing wire is a media company. We have an independent newsroom

12:47and they're able to do incredible work and I love it. I absolutely love it. I feel so lucky.

12:52It's hard to have an, uh, uh, journalism job in this day and age and I have a great one.

12:57So, you know, this was all a tragic accident for me. Literally that I, there was no intention

13:04to do any of this. Jason Resnick, who runs Benzinga financial, he saw me talking on social

13:10media receive. I didn't have such a loud mouth and talk, you know, talking a lot. None of this

13:15would have happened. That's what got you where you are, man. Yeah. So, uh, he saw me, I remember

13:19I was, I was talking to Michelle Cabrera, who was a CNBC anchor back then. And he said, do you want

13:24to write about political economics or no puke? No, I don't like politics, but I can talk about

13:29real estate. So that kind of spawned anything. And oddly enough, oddly enough, I'm, I'm a by-product

13:36of the doomers. Like I'm only here today because by 2014, it was so funny. It was QE3 was quantitative

13:43easing three was ending. And these people were like, Oh my God, that's like planet earth. People

13:48couldn't human life would cease to exist if we didn't have QE3. And I was like, that's really

13:53not how it works. And I was like, these people are just doomers. Right there. So I was like,

13:57after that, like QE3 ended and nothing terrible happened and bond yields were falling. I was like,

14:02okay, all right, we're going to have to do this as an analyst because clearly nobody wants to like

14:08talk the truth. They just, everyone wants to do important. So oddly enough, action reaction,

14:14you know, as the devil flows through the cities of, you know, the God sends these angels and tries

14:19to fight them. And it was really that, I mean, it wasn't, it was just a by-product that I have,

14:24somebody has to fight these people. And here we are today, 10 years, 11. Yeah. 11 years

14:29later after that. And we're still, we're still fighting the same battles, right? There's just this

14:34constant conflict. I was like, I joke, it's like Batman versus a Joker, right? You know, for, for 80,

14:4290 years, we're going to have this constant battle because they, they have to have each other,

14:46you know, that's how the relationship works. There has to be doomers 24 seven. There has to

14:50be like a pro America person and the conflict is there. And you love it. You're made for this. So

14:55you, you wrote your own blog, uh, financial truth. Is that what it was called? Yes. Logan

15:00I'm such an arrogant, you know, loganmodeshami.com. That's what it was. The headline was financial

15:05truth. You know, it was just like, you know, it was great. And then in 2020, you started becoming a

15:11regular columnist for us and you and I, you were, it was so great to be able to edit you because you

15:17were very open, very flexible. Lots of writers are, you know, they do not like it when you suggest

15:22changes and you were so open, which is good because you would turn in like 5,000 word stories. And I was

15:28like, there is no universe in which our readers are going to read five and you do like three times a

15:35week. And I was like, your output, my God, it was so, it was so incredible. And I loved that part of

15:40it, but I was like, you have got to, you've got to cut it down so much. And then you'd cut it down

15:45and I'd be like, no, you actually have to cut it down even more. Yeah. Yeah. I, I, uh, I tend to

15:50go overboard because I want to make sure to get everything in there and that's just not how the

15:54word works. And, you know, it's, it's one thing learning that, you know, uh, through this day and

15:58age about social media. I mean, you just, you know, how to connect with more. I mean, look,

16:04look what the stranger things real did. This story is crazy. I literally, I literally, I have

16:11actors tell me, I didn't know you worked on the, uh, stranger things set, you know? I mean, I have

16:17people that, that look at me. So explain this if people don't know what we're talking about, that

16:21you used, uh, AI to put yourself, it looks like you were like one of the extras or like a stump devil

16:27or on the set or something. So the stranger things, AI, they, um, I took one right away and

16:34it's just basically kind of me on set for all the seasons. So it looks like I was part of there.

16:39The thing is the initial photo is me with the main villain, uh, in his costume. But what happened

16:46is that that went viral worldwide. So when you look at Instagram marketing for Netflix, it's all the

16:54actors and their, you know, choreographic marketing. And then there's me sitting there smiling and doing

17:01my thing. And it's, it's big in Brazil. It's big in India, the U S Argentina, Japan. So it's all

17:09these things where that couldn't happen, you know, 20, 30 years ago, but connecting with people in

17:17video. So I'd like you give me 24 seven. I could talk all day, but you have to make it in a way that

17:24people could understand. And early on when I was writing and you, you, you saw it, I was

17:30writing way too much, right? That's just not going to work. Right. So we try to condense things as much

17:35as possible. Cause I want, like, to me, it's like, I want to get every single thing in, like,

17:39I got to get this point. And that's just not going to work. Right. You're just like people are normal

17:43teacher in you. I think it's a teacher in you where you're like, but they may not understand this.

17:47So let's go deep here. And it was just like, it, there's a great format for that. It's just,

17:51you know, it's, it's probably a book. It's probably a lot of things, but it's not a,

17:55you know, an article. Oh, okay. For those of you not watching, you should look on YouTube because

18:02we have a beautiful picture of you and your cat, one of your cats. So Puff, original name was Remy,

18:10two strays. We had this, this whole neighborhood had an orange cat that was running around for 18

18:18months and it was just very loud. And there's tons of coyotes here. And, uh, you live in Orange

18:23County, which is weird that there's coyotes, but they do, they run around. Yeah. Well, I live in

18:27Irvine. It's right next to a few Hills. So this cat was just impossible to catch. So eventually I got

18:36him. Um, he got away, got him again. He got away. But the third time he brought Puff, which is a main

18:43coon, you know, and I didn't know. And then, and then I was like, what are you doing? So I thought

18:49it was a, I thought it was a female. I thought, Oh boy, I gotta, I gotta, you know, just in case,

18:54you know, if he's, if she's pregnant and everything. So I got him, found out he was a male.

19:01Eventually, eventually, uh, Cornelius, the orange cat, we call, I call him the nuclear,

19:07nuclear bomb because everyone makes so much noise and caught, he climbs up walls and rooftops and

19:14people see him in their windows. So he's a, he, he, he's, he's a character, but, uh, he eventually

19:20got caught by the, uh, uh, city, uh, um, animal shelter people. And he was deemed not to be, you

19:27know, uh, um, uh, uh, livable with humans. So, uh, I said, but you were like, if I take him,

19:33will you let him? Yeah. Listen, if, if, if you neuter him, I'll take him. Cause I got his buddy

19:39here. And these two are, these two are like, you know, they're like brothers, you know, they play

19:44invite, they, they, they literally act like brothers. So, uh, of course my tuxedo cat that

19:50I've had for 14 years, he hates it because he's not the, you know, baby. He's like, what are you doing

19:55bringing these cats in? So, yeah. So Remy's, uh, Remy's a part of the family and he like all main coons,

20:02they, they, they latch onto one person and he is loud. So people laugh because when I,

20:08when I do these videos on Instagram, you could just hear them all of a sudden,

20:11you know, and well, and sometimes on the podcast, even if he's in the other room, it, it, I'm like,

20:18uh, we can hear your cat because he's crying and it's so loud. It comes through the door and it sounds

20:22like what's going on there. Yes. He's a big baby. Okay. Logan, what are you excited about for 2026?

20:29Like when you look at 2026, what is going to set it apart as like, this is going to be a good year

20:35for housing. Well, I mean, to me, it's, it's the first balance year because I set metrics for it. I

20:41said, you know, as soon as we get four months plus of supply and get active inventory above 1.52

20:48million. Now, of course it's, it's below that right now because it's a seasonal decline, but as soon as

20:53we hit that, we're in a, in a buyer seller's market again, right? Where the marketplace dictates

21:00what things do. And to me, that's so exciting. Cause I think that's where our data really comes

21:05into play. Uh, uh, when everything is like when inventories at all time, lows and mortgage rates

21:11are 3%, you know, there's just demands. There's nothing there, you know, just, uh, uh, but here it's

21:17the first time where it's just, now it's, it's, it's, it's a fight, right? It's a, it's an authentic,

21:22fair fight now. And that was the whole concept of team higher rates. Team higher rates was to get

21:27people, you know, uh, get in 2021, right? Yeah. February, February of 2021, where I thought, boy,

21:35this is a very, very bad thing right now, because the problem was there was so much talk about

21:40forbearance. Remember the forbearance crash bros? Oh yeah. Oh my God. They were just terrible.

21:44They thought millions of homes were about to come in. Like forbearance ended October 20th,

21:49you know, but most people got their jobs back and they weren't going to, you know, sell their houses

21:53being employed, but we really needed higher rates. And unfortunately all of 2021 rates were still low.

22:00And again, fed policy is not around the existing home sales market, either positive or negative,

22:05but it was one of these things where unemployment rates were still elevated and nobody really believed

22:10in the recovery still in 2021 because of COVID. So it was a, it was a very peculiar situation

22:15on a historical basis, but now, you know, it's now it's like everything I wanted to see.

22:21I hope it was earlier, but now it's finally here. So it's the buyer versus seller marketplace. And

22:26that's going to be, and, uh, and of course, like the nerd tour is so much fun, you know? And, uh,

22:32that's just the, uh, the, the beauty of this job is being able to present in front of people

22:37and explain to people and get it. The best part is when people start to get it right.

22:41And we've seen it. We've seen people who are like, now I understand they, they let us know

22:46on social. They let us know, um, in different, uh, avenues that they're like, I was able to explain

22:51this to my buyer. I now understand this and I can, you know, I can plan better. It's been really cool.

22:57Yeah. So what are you, what are you looking for, for 2026? Um, I think it's great that we have,

23:02you know, we've had such a hard couple of years in the housing industry. So I am happy for our

23:08industry. There's been, you know, so much change that hopefully this can be a better year for

23:12everybody. And I feel like there's a lot of promise this year when we see what people are doing with

23:18AI, when we see how people are, are really leveraging that at the same time, man, lots of

23:24variable factors as there were all this year. When you think about tariffs, when you think about

23:28regulation changes, when you think about different ideas, sort of thrown up, um, to see what's going

23:34to stick. Um, it makes it really interesting as a news organization. I love it. It's great for me.

23:39Um, and then hopefully, you know, parsing through that and helping our audience understand, I hope

23:44it's great for them too. Yes. And, uh, I know you cringe when I say, Hey, Sarah, I made a couple AI

23:50photos of us did a go with the season here. Like I was like, do not make any photos. And this is the

23:57thing. Like you're, you're really good at, you actually try to get better at it every day with

24:01AI. You're always using, uh, AI videos, which listen, that's what got you your, uh, you know,

24:07how many new followers did you get from this? I got 17,000 new followers just from, and we'll see

24:13how many of those are interested in like, you know, most aren't going to be interested in the

24:18tracker data. I can guarantee you that. Uh, but, but again, it helps, it helps for the algorithm,

24:23but in this case, um, uh, 2026 will be a lot of fun. Yeah. It will be a lot of fun. And I will

24:29tell people sign up for the housing economic summit on February 10th. You're going to be

24:33there in person. We have so many great people going to be there in person. And if you're listening

24:37to this podcast, if you're a regular listener and you don't subscribe to housing, I got to tell

24:43you, you're, you're losing out because Logan does a great job giving you a condensed version,

24:48but he does a deep dive on that tracker. Plus we have a whole newsroom full of people focused

24:53on real estate, mortgage appraisal, title regulation, what's going on in DC. And it's

24:59like the, the news people need to know to run their business. So. Yes. And I always remember

25:04you can get all toast data for your city, zip code, state County, you know, housing is course

25:10there's, you know, the, the general housing market flows with macroeconomic data, of course,

25:14but you know, there are the South is much different than the Northeast, you know? And so there's,

25:21you can have an advantage tracking live data that doesn't have an agenda to doom porn as you know,

25:28I always say, but to work with live data that not a lot of people would have access to, you know,

25:3420, 20 years ago. Well, and on this unplugged episode, we can say thank you to our, you know,

25:39to all the listeners. We love our fans. Look at that cat. He's so cute. And you know, we really

25:45appreciate you guys. It's also, it seems more of a conversation, like it's a conversation between you

25:49and me, but then we meet people all the time and they, and they reach out to us and contact us.

25:54So it feels like we really are having a conversation with our listeners. We love that. Continue to do

26:00that and let us know what you want to see different or the same. What do you want Logan to do more of

26:05in the, in the new year? That's what we need to know. But we, we appreciate you guys so much.

26:10Thank you all. You know, it's, it's, you know, for a small niche podcast like this to be in the top 10,

26:16top 20 business news podcasts. It's not because of us, it's because of all of you keeping this going.

26:22Love it. Okay, Logan, we'll see you again. And I think the next time we talk,

26:26or at least in the next couple of times we talk, we will be talking about your forecast.

26:29Yes. I've been bugging you about forever. So anyway, thank you for all you do for us,

26:35Logan. Really appreciate you. Same thing, boss. Somebody has to boss me around. So

26:39somebody does. Yes. All right. Talk soon.

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