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00:00The reason I'm bringing this up here is Cleveland and Shador Sanders will be on the road to take on the Chicago Bears in the Windy City.
00:05Not going to be a lot of wind there, but Joe, the kickoff temperature, seven degrees in Chicago for this game and a touchdown favorite of seven and a half for Chicago and a total of 39 and a half.
00:17Bone-chilling temperatures, Shador's on the road.
00:20What's that spread line here?
00:21Well, yeah, and wind, because they're talking about the wind chill of maybe zero minus one degree.
00:30So we are going to get some wind here as well.
00:33But to me, this becomes a situation where, listen, we all know Shador Sanders doesn't have exactly the strongest arm.
00:40Great win. I mean, great game last week.
00:43But, you know, going at home against that Tennessee defense is one thing.
00:47And going on the road to Soldier Field here in these conditions is another animal.
00:52The team that can run the ball, Donnie, is going to win this game and is going to win it, I think, rather easily.
00:58And I do believe that the Bears will have no problem bouncing back here against this Browns team who will likely go back to their seven to ten points a game from this point moving forward.
01:11And by the way, who the heck wants to tackle Kyle Monungay in zero degree temperatures?
01:15That guy's a bulldozer out there.
01:16We'll find out more this weekend.
01:18But they did it.
01:19They did it, people.
01:20It's Indianapolis Colts.
01:22We thought coming into this season, that's a wait and see.
01:24And maybe Anthony Richardson is going to be your quarterback.
01:26And we talked about it so much.
01:27Like, hey, the betting markets are saying who's going to be the starter opening day.
01:30And for a while in the summer, it was Anthony Richardson.
01:33Only to find Daniel Jones beat him out.
01:35And rightfully so, Daniel Jones was very good over the first, what, seven or eight games.
01:39Injuries step in.
01:40Story goes back to Daniel Jones of the New York Giants.
01:42Now he's out with a broken leg slash Achilles injury and not coming back.
01:46Riley Leonard stepped into the fold last week.
01:48And he looked pretty good against the Jacksonville Jaguars show.
01:51So much where I wanted to go back and watch every snap he took against the Jaguars to try
01:55to see if there's any value this week.
01:56Only to find out he has a knee injury and is possibly not going to play.
02:00Which means the Colts would be without a quarterback.
02:03Because I guess they banished Anthony Richardson to the back of the building.
02:07Signed 44-year-old Phillip Rivers after a Monday night workout.
02:11The question's going to be, how quickly can he assimilate and start on this football team?
02:16And can it be this weekend?
02:18He's 44.
02:19He hasn't played in a couple, it feels like a decade in the NFL.
02:23And he's coming back.
02:24Good on you, Phil.
02:26Donnie, I'm telling you, it is the story none of us knew we needed at this season here in the NFL.
02:32And I am all for it.
02:34You want to take on father time?
02:36I am all for it.
02:37Let's go, Phillip Rivers.
02:39Let's see what you got.
02:41But I think it does speak to just how, I mean, think about where this Colts team started this year.
02:48And think about where they are right now, right?
02:50What an unbelievable situation here.
02:53Because a lot of us doubted that Daniel Jones was going to be any sort of placeholder
02:58until you could figure out what was going on with Richardson.
03:01But I think we all agreed, Richardson, that probably wasn't going to be the answer here.
03:07And then we were unbelievably pleasantly surprised with Daniel Jones and the start they had.
03:12But then he got hurt.
03:14Richardson, we all knew, was probably not going to be playing football this year.
03:19And now they're left with Riley Leonard, who's hurt.
03:21And now you've got to go to a 44-year-old Phillip Rivers.
03:24It has gone from bad.
03:26It's gone from great to absolutely what choice do we have with the Indianapolis Colts.
03:32That is not great as you head into Week 15 in a playoff race, Donnie, if you are the Colts.
03:38It's unbelievable the up-and-down rollercoaster season this team has had.
03:43And by the way, we have to change the timelines here.
03:45Because Schefter pointed out, and everybody's asking the same question.
03:47What happens?
03:48He's going to probably be in the Hall of Fame.
03:49Does he get the pushback?
03:50The minute he signs on the Colts' active roster, his name comes off that list.
03:54And the clock restarts for another five years.
03:56Now, we have to make some exceptions on these rules.
03:58You're telling me if Phillip Rivers comes back and plays one game, he's like, you know what?
04:02Just don't have it.
04:03Or one game, my arm hurts.
04:04Or, you know, who knows?
04:05He scrambles out of the pocket, and there goes his hamstring, and he has to retire again.
04:09We need special dispensation.
04:11Now, granted, if he plays at 44 years old and plays well down the stretch, and the Colts is like, hey, how about one more year?
04:16Yeah, your name's going to come off that list.
04:17But I do find it interesting where he's just about to be on the ballot, and it would reset.
04:21But I've got to tell you this.
04:22I don't think Phillip Rivers cares about that at all.
04:24You're telling me, dude, if I get back and have one more pass in the NFL, take my name off the list, man.
04:29I'm living the dream.
04:32He's getting into the NFL.
04:34So here's what they should do.
04:36If he somehow manages to get this team, he plays, Donnie, and he somehow manages to get this team to finish and make it to the postseason.
04:44Win or lose, as soon as it's over, they ought to just drive him right to Canton and drive him right into the Hall of Fame and put him in there.
04:52Because this will be one of the most unbelievable stories.
04:56He doesn't even have to win a playoff game, Donnie.
04:58He's just got to be able to get them there.
05:00If he can do that, and this works great, it's one of two things, Donnie.
05:04This is either going to be the greatest story ever, or it's going to be the biggest train wreck that we have seen in a very, very long time.
05:11It is, and also, you take a look, too.
05:14J.J. Watt put out a post yesterday.
05:16Phillip Rivers is running the same offense as the Colts for his son's Gunners high school team this season.
05:21And he even said him and Shane Steichen actually spoke weekly about it, discussing plays and film.
05:26That's when we opened up the show talking about this isn't a guy coming in like, hey, well, this is new terminology, and this is going to be crazy.
05:31He steps in on a Wednesday and is like, I got mastery of the playbook already.
05:35That's huge, because you can bring in anybody off the street, but you have to assimilate and learn exactly what that playbook is.
05:41Hundreds of plays deep.
05:42He's already got it.
05:44Frank Reich, his last coach, right?
05:46He was the coach of the Colts in his last season.
05:49Frank Reich apparently texted him and was like, listen, if this is true, I'm all for it.
05:54You got this.
05:55So Frank Reich thinks he can actually, he's got enough left in the tank to go out and do it.
05:59But the choice is Phillip Rivers right now or Brett Rippon.
06:04And that's it.
06:05And Riley Leonard doesn't look like he's going to be able to play Sunday against Seattle.
06:09So Brett Rippon or Phillip Rivers?
06:12My goodness.
06:14I'm telling you, man, you got to be kidding me.
06:16He starts this weekend up on the 12s, and I don't care what happens.
06:19Like, sign me up for 30 carries out of Jonathan Taylor, but just give me that play action pass, flip it over the side,
06:25and have him yelling at a defender there, telling him how he's back and how he's going to be king of everything here.
06:31That'll be a lot of fun to watch it play out.
06:32But it's Phillip Rivers.
06:33He's 44.
06:35He's back in the NFL.
06:36Can he start this weekend?
06:37We'll talk about it for the rest of the week.
06:39We'll be right back here on the Early Line.
06:41News and notes around the NFL here.
06:43Never too early.
06:43Yes, it's a hump day.
06:44No, there's no live action on the NFL field.
06:46It starts up again tomorrow for an exciting week 15.
06:49And we don't have too much left to go until that first week of January and off to the playoffs we are.
06:54But Mike Tomlin, feeling good about a victory over the Baltimore Ravens.
06:57He had some time to speak on, hey, what the heck is going on with Phillip Rivers?
07:00Mike, you have a 42-year-old quarterback.
07:04Can a 44-year-old who hasn't played in five years come back and play Phillip Rivers?
07:09I have no idea what you're talking about.
07:11Colton's supposed to work him out.
07:12That's none of my business, man.
07:16I'm trying to get ready for the Dolphins.
07:20By the way, you know what I always find intriguing about it, too, Joe?
07:24Because we're so much in the sports landscape and in media here.
07:27All we do is watch feeds of social media all day long.
07:30The minute information comes down, we see it.
07:33NFL football coaches, the thing I get a kick out of is they're so straight line in their approach.
07:38Like, they're not on social media.
07:40They don't care what's going on around the league.
07:42They're in a dark film room trying to prepare their team and come out of a cubbyhole to grab, like, some lunch and some dinner and head right back in there.
07:48Head home at 1 a.m. in the morning, get right back to the Dolphins at 5 a.m.
07:51Because you ask that question, it's like, hey, he's going to get a funny response about what he thinks of Phillip Rivers.
07:55His response was, I don't even know what's going on here.
07:57That's kind of interesting.
07:58I love that singular approach from football coaches where they don't have any idea what's going on outside of their own building, it seems.
08:06And I love the ridiculous question, though.
08:08Like, what do you think Mike Tomlin cares?
08:11Is he playing the Colts this week?
08:13No.
08:13I mean, if you've been in that room at all for the last 18 years, like, you know Tomlin's like, listen, we're on to the Dolphins.
08:24Like, I don't even know what.
08:25Not my problem.
08:26I thought his reaction was perfect.
08:28Like, are you serious?
08:29Like, I care what the Colts are doing unless we're playing them.
08:32Very funny.
08:33It is funny.
08:34But he says, hey, the correlation with your old quarterback in mind, there's no correlation.
08:38Like, Aaron Rodgers has been playing all along.
08:40Some guy coming off the couch midweek and not even playing against, like, hey, you know what?
08:44We're going to give you a breather game, the easiest game.
08:46We're going to play the Atlanta Falcons.
08:47Like, no, you're going into Seattle in one of the toughest environments against an unbelievable defense and the best team possibly, at least record-wise, in the NFC.
08:54A fun one to watch this weekend.
08:56But Mike Tomlin's like, dude, I don't need those problems here.
08:58I'm not going to answer any questions.
08:59Back to the next one here that we have.
09:01Other news around.
09:03Adam Schefter sent out a tweet yesterday.
09:04Police have arrested a 20-year-old Bronx man and charged him with attempted murder, assault, and criminal possession of a weapon in connection with the shooting of Jets player Chris Boyd.
09:14An arrest has been made here.
09:16And I believe Boyd is getting better as well, which is good news.
09:19Yeah, that was never going to go unsolved because the NFL was never going to allow a player, even though he wasn't a starter, Don.
09:29He wasn't like a well-known – the guy was – he was marketed as a NFL – NFL jet player shot, and that was never going to go unsolved.
09:40They were going to find who did that, and they did.
09:43And so hopefully justice will prevail here.
09:46Ian Rappaport yesterday, he had a tweet out there about the Steelers and DK Metcalf having to stay overnight in a Baltimore hotel after going to a local hospital following the game, a team spokesman confirmed.
09:56Metcalf was experiencing stumming pains on a flight, and out of abundance of caution, they kept him there, and he's flying back to Pittsburgh today, which obviously was a couple days ago.
10:06But having said that, hey, man, we've all been there, right?
10:08And by the way, I think the Steelers gave him pep, though, during the game, which had his best game of the season here, but they didn't want to put him on the plane there.
10:15A key ingredient here, Joe, maybe a little more fiber in the diet.
10:18Like, what happened here?
10:19What happened on the stock issues?
10:21Good.
10:21Listen, it's that time of year, right?
10:23Could have been a little bug, a little something, and they were like, good to go.
10:27You'll know all you need to know about it, though, on whether or not he's on that injury report and questionable coming this Sunday against the Dolphins.
10:35I doubt he will be.
10:36I think he'll be good to go.
10:37By the way, you know, football players, we're human beings.
10:41Like, sometimes you have to go to the bathroom and say, hey, Lamar Jackson's running back into the locker room.
10:45Like, oh, I hope he's okay.
10:46No, he probably had to go to the bathroom like so many people.
10:48I can't imagine trying to play at the highest level, Joe.
10:51And like, hey, man, stomach's bubbling out here, guys.
10:54I ain't feeling too good.
10:55And then put on that performance.
10:58Unbelievable.
10:59Absolutely.
10:59It was.
11:00And listen, they're going to need more of that from him.
11:02Let's be honest, right?
11:03So, whatever this is, you got to keep giving them the charcoal.
11:07Whatever it is, keep giving it to them because they're going to need more of that moving forward.
11:13Absolutely.
11:13By the way, a couple of tight ends banged up this week is also they're going to play Miami on Monday night football, Joe.
11:18Another frigid, cold temperature, which, you know, the Miami Dolphins don't like.
11:23And there's one guy quarterback on the other side, Aaron Rodgers, like, hey, man, what's a two degrees?
11:27Used to this.
11:27Been playing in this all my life.
11:29So, some good stuff there.
11:30And DK Metcalf, by the way, explaining from the Steelers themselves, they don't expect him to miss any time.
11:35Whether he practices early in the week, Joe, that'll be a different result.
11:38But, yeah, stomach issues.
11:40Let it rest out there.
11:41A little Metamucil.
11:42You're back on the field.
11:43Everything's good.
11:44I love it.
11:45Listen, I'm looking forward to seeing this game on Monday because great win for Pittsburgh.
11:53They are going to need him.
11:54You know, that defense of the Dolphins, you can say a lot about that team, whether they're for real or not.
12:00But they're believing they're for real, Donnie.
12:02And they are going to have to beat them over the top because they're pretty good against the run.
12:07Yeah, they've been playing much better, too, the Miami Dolphins.
12:09I think it's either four straight games or five of six.
12:11One of those two there may be included in both.
12:13But the Dolphins certainly come into town with some vengeance.
12:16And Devon Achan, how he's been playing, hey, maybe it could be some kryptonite there for that Pittsburgh defense.
12:21I'll tell you what is kryptonite.
12:22If your players are playing football and they're getting drunk before most games, and then we go back to the tapes and be like, what the heck was this guy doing?
12:29Quentin Jammer, how about this story?
12:31Admits he played drunk during eight games in 2011.
12:35I know if I'm playing drunk, usually it's like, hey, I'm going to shoot hoops at the local park with my buddies and we'll laugh, but we're not going to do a ton of cardio.
12:43How the heck do you play football games drunk?
12:45Wouldn't you be just tossing up all over the place?
12:47Or maybe he was.
12:48Stop, dude.
12:51Listen, Lawrence Taylor would roll out of a hotel room, Donnie, at an hour before kickoff, still drunk, and show up at the stadium there and still get three and a half sacks in a game and disrupt.
13:04So you ain't got nothing there, Jammer.
13:06Nice story, though.
13:07But, yeah, I'd like to see some of that tape with him when he was a little inebriated.
13:13I'd like to see some of the plays that he might not have made there while in that condition.
13:19Yeah, because we've got, like, Marshawn Lynch has told the fact, like, hey, man, I'll take a shot of Henny before the game to get me going, which sort of makes sense how wild he is.
13:26Like, I just need to calm down.
13:28This helps me get through the game itself.
13:29But the fact that you're back there taking multiple shots or a case of Bud Light before the game and then go out and play an NFL game, which, you know, is a quick – you can't say it's easier for alignment.
13:39Or let's just say you're a special teamer.
13:41But if you're a cornerback, Joe, let's just say that's 80 plays of chasing wide receivers 50 yards downfield.
13:47That's tough to do if you're inebriated.
13:50Yeah, that's very tough to do here, Donnie.
13:54Not to mention it's like, yeah, I don't want to play this game.
13:56Like, what are we – what is doing here?
13:59I'll be good to go.
14:00But some guys, listen, you know, some guys are very functional with that.
14:04And he apparently was because he kept getting a paycheck, didn't he?
14:07And nobody knew it?
14:09Nobody knew it.
14:10Hid that for what, 2011?
14:11Almost close to 15 years at this point saying, you know what?
14:14Give me a couple shots here before the game.
14:15We'll get down to business.
14:16By the way, Joe, it is a big week 15 in the NFL.
14:19We start tomorrow night.
14:20We're not going to have a preview of that game.
14:22Decent weather conditions.
14:23That's what we want to talk about in Tampa Bay.
14:24The rest of the league, Joe, it's a full slate on Sunday.
14:27A lot of Dome games, which is fun, but a lot of games now, Joe,
14:30that we are seeing temperatures of 20 – excuse me, below 20 degrees, 15 degrees,
14:3610 degrees.
14:37How does that change your optimism?
14:39Because sometimes we just talk about, like, PSAs where September is so easy, Joe.
14:42You're showing up at 85 degrees everywhere, good weather,
14:44and away you go with it.
14:45Now guys are beat up, banged up, and it hurts to tackle.
14:49And now you're playing in zero-degree wind temperatures there,
14:52like we're seeing in Chicago.
14:53Does that change your mindset here on some of these road teams coming to town
14:56and who actually has the advantages?
14:58Well, it's, you know, it's always going to be advantage,
15:01the northeastern teams, right, teams that play outdoors in this type of weather
15:07versus those that, like Miami, that play south.
15:10It's always going to be a disadvantage for them.
15:12But understand it's always baked into the line.
15:15So don't think that you're getting some sort of great price here on a game
15:19because the wind is blowing.
15:20The wind blowing is really the only thing that's going to affect the line significantly.
15:27Cold is cold.
15:28Not to mention, Donnie, look at what they got going on.
15:31A lot of these stadiums now have heated fields.
15:33So when they're hitting the ground, it's not nearly like,
15:36oh, the ground is front.
15:38No, it's not like that anymore.
15:39They got all the stuff on the sidelines here.
15:42Sure, it's cold, it's going to hurt.
15:44But it's advantage those who are used to it, Donnie,
15:47versus those that might be out west or down south.
15:51I got to tell you, look at something like New England's going to be cold,
15:53Cincinnati cold, Kansas City cold.
15:55Green Bay's playing Denver.
15:5760 degrees at kickoff.
15:58That doesn't make any sense to me at this point.
16:00Let's make some sense to that Thursday night game tomorrow.
16:04Right back out on a hump day Wednesday.
16:06Early line Sports Grid Network, DRS, and Joe Raniera.
16:09The NFL Workweek does get back into business tomorrow.
16:12On a Thursday, Atlanta and Tampa Bay.
16:14Atlanta free-falling out of the playoff picture.
16:16They've already been eliminated, which is interesting.
16:18Now, they continue to feed, you know, Bijan in the backfield and Algier.
16:23And what are you getting out of Kirk Cousins?
16:24And are you going to rush to bring back Drake London at this point?
16:27We'll find out.
16:28And maybe Raheem Morris is selfish.
16:29He goes, hey, guys, I need you all out there.
16:31Because if maybe one or two more wins saves my job this year, I could use that.
16:35Nonsense.
16:35Once you're out of the playoffs, tank, get a better draft pick,
16:37and move on with your life.
16:39Now, Kirk Cousins will get the start against Baker Mayfield.
16:42Last week, an embarrassing effort at home for Tampa Bay, Joe.
16:45Coming up on the lame end of a bad football team against New Orleans in the rain.
16:49Good weather conditions are expected, but also,
16:51Wurfs did not play in that game.
16:53Star left tackle, expected to possibly be back.
16:56Mike Evans, who's been down for multiple weeks with the collarbone injury,
16:59expected to possibly be back.
17:01Jalen McMillan, who got hurt in the preseason, Joe, with a neck injury,
17:05possibly playing on Thursday night.
17:06The reinforcements are coming back on a line that sits at 4 1⁄2
17:10and a total of 44 1⁄2 tomorrow, Joe, between Atlanta and Tampa.
17:16It's interesting because the total, I think, is fascinating here, Donnie,
17:20because you've got two teams with two very defensive-minded head coaches, right?
17:25I mean, Raheem Morris, all about the defense,
17:28just allowed a whole lot of points last week.
17:31So you've got to think there is going to be some urgency
17:34on the defensive side there where they're going to look to limit this Bucs team
17:39that you mentioned is finally looks like they're going to get a little bit healthier here.
17:44But Todd Bowles and Tampa has not been great, certainly, in the market
17:48when it comes to the spread, Donnie,
17:51in covering games against division opponents.
17:54The Bucs are 1-8 against the number
17:55when they are actually hosting division opponents.
17:58So they haven't been great in this spot.
18:02They win the games, but they're not covering.
18:04I think this is an interesting number
18:06because it feels like it's kind of no man's land.
18:09So is it a field goal game?
18:10Is it more than a field goal game?
18:12What are we going to get here?
18:13Two teams that absolutely need a win.
18:16And it's going to be, I think, a dogfight
18:18and an under all day long when it's all said and done.
18:22Yeah, I don't think Atlanta needs a win.
18:24I think Atlanta needs a loss, Joe, in this game coming up.
18:26Just get that better pick.
18:28But as I started to say, people are out for themselves.
18:31Do you think Raheem Morris is going to ownership
18:32and like, you know what, let's shut it down the rest of the year?
18:34They go, good, I agree.
18:35And you're going to be fired anyway,
18:36as opposed to let's be competitive.
18:37It is a division game.
18:38They'll be up for it.
18:39They're professionals.
18:40But I look at it like this, too.
18:41Remember what hurt last week, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
18:44The ground game.
18:45Not particularly just from a running back itself,
18:46but a running quarterback.
18:47Chuck was able to make plays with his feet
18:49and score a couple touchdowns.
18:50Kirk Cousins isn't doing that.
18:52And as you pointed out, defensive-minded head coach
18:54like Todd Bowles,
18:54do you think they're going to give Kirk Cousins time
18:56to hang out in the pocket?
18:57He doesn't run.
18:58It is going to be blitzkrieg in the pocket
19:00to see if it does work.
19:01But I'm interested to see what we get
19:03out of Tampa Bay's offense.
19:04You throw a couple wide receivers into that motion
19:06where they're as healthy as they've been all season,
19:08that could be some fun to watch for Baker Mayfield
19:10on his passing statistics
19:12and also maybe touchdown props.
19:13As you take a look at Mayfield currently sits
19:15at a lot of outlets, Joe,
19:16219.5 in totals for a touchdown,
19:19over 2.5, or excuse me,
19:20over 1.5 touchdown passes,
19:22which means he has to throw 2.
19:23It's a minus 136 price.
19:25I'll tell you right now,
19:26I don't want anything to do with Kirk Cousins
19:27and those stats.
19:28If I'm playing Atlanta's side of it, Joe,
19:30just as a correlation,
19:31like if Bichon doesn't have a really good night,
19:34they're not going to win and or cover that game.
19:36I don't care about Kirk Cousins.
19:37I can't stand the wideouts.
19:38Even Pitts has been on the injury report this week
19:40on a short work week.
19:41It's looking for me like it's Tampa Bay angles
19:44to me, Joe, or nothing in this game.
19:45Well, you know, keep in mind,
19:48they had some interesting games last year
19:50with Kirk Cousins that quarterbacked these two teams.
19:53And Kirk Cousins, this might be the only team
19:56and against Todd Bowles and that defense
19:58that he's actually dominated here in a long time.
20:01509 yards, 4 touchdowns,
20:03and an overtime win last October.
20:06And then he followed that up a couple of weeks later
20:08with 4 touchdowns and 276 yards.
20:11So for whatever reason,
20:14Kirk Cousins does pretty well
20:15against Todd Bowles' defenses.
20:17But even Bichon Robinson,
20:19it's not like he's had a couple of bad games, Donnie.
20:22I mean, the guy was dominating against the Jets.
20:25He was great again last week.
20:27And they still can't win.
20:28So they need to figure something else out
20:31in order to get this win.
20:33It's kind of hard to trust either team.
20:35I'd much rather trust the offenses
20:37not to be as good as the defenses here.
20:39Yeah, Bichon listed at 74 and a half rushing yards
20:42in this game.
20:43Bucky Irving, 62 and a half.
20:44The one I always find fascinating
20:45is you never think of Baker Mayfield
20:46as like a runner.
20:47But if you watch like Red Zone on Sundays,
20:49third and seven, they go to the Buccaneers.
20:51Half the time, it's Mayfield juking like six guys
20:53to pick up eight yards.
20:54He's a pretty good runner.
20:55Once he gets in the scramble mode,
20:56he's 16 and a half.
20:57But if you look, Joe,
20:58with the touchdown props for this game,
21:00it's no surprise.
21:00Again, Bichon minus 155,
21:02the favorite in the clubhouse.
21:03Bucky Irving plus 120,
21:05Ibuka plus 135.
21:06Mike Evans listed there plus 135.
21:08And Chris Godwin, look at that.
21:10The boys are back in town.
21:12You're not going to get fired up for Tampa, Joe.
21:14Ibuka, Evans, Godwin.
21:16Come on now.
21:17Yeah, well, you know, don't forget,
21:19they played, was it week one, Donnie?
21:21We saw this game and it took one of those,
21:23you know, Baker Mayfield miracles there
21:26in the fourth quarter to come back
21:27and win this one.
21:29Listen, division rivalry,
21:31tough spot for both these teams.
21:33What are we going to get
21:34from all of these guys coming back here?
21:36Is there going to be any rust?
21:37It's a short week.
21:39This is a tough spot for both these teams.
21:41It really is.
21:43Yeah, it is.
21:43This late in the season,
21:45like it's really amped up.
21:46Like, hey, they got to go on the road
21:47Thursday night in September.
21:48They're fresh bodies at that point.
21:49You're at the end of the road here in December.
21:51And also, again,
21:52a team in Atlanta
21:53that's been officially eliminated
21:55from the playoffs.
21:55So if they're as smart as an organization
21:57and their guys are banged up,
21:59they're not putting them in harm's way
22:00on a short week.
22:01But then again, as I said,
22:02some guys, including the general manager,
22:04are going to be in that self-preservation mode
22:06at this point where they want to see everybody play
22:08because every win might be able
22:10to save their job at this point.
22:12That's the way I look at this game overall.
22:13But from a touchdown perspective,
22:14I do think it's great.
22:16Like, we're seeing the big names back for Tampa.
22:17Now, granted,
22:18they haven't played in a while,
22:19some of these guys,
22:20and how quickly they assimilate back in the offense.
22:22We won't know that.
22:22But the one thing we do know is
22:24if there are red zone packages
22:25from Mike Evans,
22:26who's on a pitch count,
22:28they're going to come in the red zone at that point.
22:29So I look at that plus 135 for Ibuka,
22:31plus 135 for Evans,
22:33and find those numbers fascinating at that point.
22:35Oh, of course,
22:35the touchdown vulture Tyler Algier
22:37at a plus 190 price,
22:39always interesting as well.
22:40But I do like,
22:41as I said, Joe,
22:42Thursday night football,
22:43decent weather.
22:44I like a Tampa perspective
22:45for my side in this game.
22:48And one thing we know
22:49with Baker Mayfield
22:50against this Falcons team
22:51with the Bucs,
22:52he's played them five times.
22:54And the final margins,
22:56three, five, six, four, three.
23:00These two teams play each other very tight here.
23:03So who do you give the edge to?
23:04Baker and company at home?
23:06Or does Atlanta do what they've done now,
23:08last two times in Tampa?
23:09And that's won the game straight up.
23:12Yep.
23:12For me, again,
23:13I'm just looking,
23:13if you're betting the Atlanta side,
23:15it's going to be B. John Robinson for me.
23:16I mean, come on.
23:17Are they picking David Sills
23:18at wideout over 20 and a half, Joe?
23:20Good old David Sills.
23:21Back in West Virginia, Dave.
23:24NFC championship winner.
23:26We just did it with the AFC here,
23:27Joe Ranieri.
23:28And if we take a look at some of the guys
23:29at the top of the leaderboard,
23:30of course,
23:30it's going to be the Los Angeles Rams
23:32at a 30% chance
23:33and the favorites here.
23:34Followed by Seattle,
23:35also right in the race with the Rams
23:37to win the NFC West at 19%.
23:39The Green Bay Packers at 17%,
23:42taking control of the NFC North.
23:44The Philadelphia Eagles,
23:45leaking oil right now
23:46in the NFC East at 13%,
23:48followed by San Francisco,
23:49Detroit, Chicago, and Tampa Bay.
23:51The one thing I look at at the bottom,
23:52like I said, you know what?
23:53Might be able to get some options here
23:55if we look at the Pittsburgh Steelers
23:56to win a playoff game.
23:57I got to tell you,
23:58I don't want anything to do with
24:00anything less, I should say,
24:02than the Rams,
24:03Seattle, Green Bay, and Philadelphia.
24:04I think there's a huge line
24:06and a huge division after that
24:07of who can actually win.
24:08San Francisco is absolutely fool's gold.
24:10The team plays the easiest schedule out there,
24:13getting by, playing clowns
24:14week after week after week.
24:15I don't think I have much for them.
24:16Detroit looks like they're just
24:18not going to be able to rebound
24:19and they're going to be playing on the road.
24:20Take that dome team out of the road.
24:22Doesn't look as good.
24:23Chicago, decent football team.
24:24Tampa, decent, yes.
24:25And the way we go.
24:26For me, it seems like it's the top four
24:28or nothing for me, Joe.
24:30Yeah, and you just got to hope, Mike,
24:32they don't, you know,
24:34they don't devour themselves there
24:35because the NFC West,
24:38certainly the most competitive division here.
24:41But the NFC, Donnie,
24:43we talked about it yesterday.
24:44Those teams you just mentioned
24:46all seem to be,
24:48they will be the favorite
24:49no matter which one of it is
24:50against any of these AFC teams.
24:52Donnie, I think all of those NFC teams
24:54would be considered a favorite
24:56to win it over those AFC teams,
24:58whoever it may be.
24:59So I'm kind of with you right now.
25:01It's, it feels like
25:02the better teams are in the NFC,
25:04but it's much more top heavy
25:06than what we're talking about in the AFC.
25:08Yeah, if I'm looking to take some shots, right?
25:10Like I do like Seattle,
25:11but I just don't,
25:12I still don't think the pedigree is there
25:13for them to win the NFC.
25:14Of course, we like the Rams
25:15who are the favorite,
25:16but I would look at the Green Bay Packers
25:17and the Philadelphia Eagles,
25:1917% and 13%.
25:20Still a little ways to go in the season.
25:22Green Bay's playing
25:23really good football right now.
25:24Home field advantage
25:25could be in their sights.
25:26And for the Eagles,
25:26getting back Lane Johnson,
25:27working through some of those kinks
25:28where they're bad,
25:29there's still enough time for them
25:30to win a playoff game or two,
25:32which again,
25:33will increase your chances
25:34of profiting here
25:35without actually winning
25:36the NFC itself
25:37on the initial bet,
25:39just the way it goes down.
25:40NFL, other hot topics, Joe.
25:41Of course, Adam Schefter reports
25:43this morning.
25:44The NFL announced
25:45it will return to Munich,
25:46Germany in 2026 and 2028
25:48to play regular season games.
25:50There you go.
25:51Let's get more international.
25:52Pretty soon, Joe.
25:52It's going to be like,
25:53hey, you want to catch the Eagles?
25:55Only got two home games
25:56at Lincoln Financial Field.
25:57The rest are around the world.
25:59Yeah.
26:00Well, you know,
26:00I think there has to be a caveat.
26:02Like, who are you sending over there?
26:04You know what I mean?
26:04There has to be a,
26:06you know,
26:06if you want to send
26:07the Browns over there,
26:08great.
26:08You know,
26:08I don't think anybody's
26:09going to argue.
26:10Okay.
26:11You know,
26:11yeah.
26:12Send, you know,
26:12send some of these
26:13absolutely awful team,
26:15Tennessee.
26:15Good.
26:16Send them over.
26:16Have a great time.
26:17Enjoy yourselves.
26:18Nobody is really going to want
26:19to come and watch
26:20a two-win football team
26:21anyway at home,
26:21but you can't be sending
26:23Buffalo over there
26:25or, you know,
26:26or Philadelphia.
26:27Like, you know,
26:28like, please don't do that.
26:29But any of these bottom dwellers,
26:31by all means,
26:32you can have them.
26:33Like, especially
26:34the competitive advantage.
26:35Like, we have the
26:36lopsided schedule now
26:37with the 17-game schedule.
26:38So, you know,
26:39one year you get
26:39the nine home games.
26:40Like, awesome.
26:41And then they go,
26:41well, you're going to
26:42play one on the road.
26:42Like, the Eagles won
26:43the Super Bowl last year,
26:44but their home game
26:45against the Packers
26:46was moved to Brazil
26:46in that ice skating rink.
26:48They were still able to win,
26:49but don't you think
26:49from an organizational standpoint
26:51or competitive,
26:51like, you know,
26:52like, we want Green Bay
26:53at home.
26:54We don't want to play
26:54Green Bay on a neutral site.
26:56But the NFL looks at it
26:57and goes,
26:57you're going to get more
26:58money in your pocket,
26:59Mr. O.
26:59You're going to go,
26:59okay, no problem.
27:00We'll sell out
27:01and we'll go there.
27:02You know what I need
27:02to see, too?
27:03Here's where you know
27:04the NFL's going to turn.
27:05The Thanksgiving Day game
27:06wherever the Cowboys play,
27:08put that in Mexico.
27:09Put that out in France
27:11at that point.
27:12That's what I want to see.
27:12You want competitive
27:13disadvantage and craziness?
27:15Put Dallas'
27:16Thanksgiving game
27:16on the road.
27:17Put them in Toronto
27:18where the Argonauts
27:19used to play.
27:20Is Argonauts still in,
27:21by the way,
27:21the CFL, Joe,
27:22do you know?
27:23Yes.
27:23Did I get that wrong?
27:24Are they still there?
27:25They might still be playing, though.
27:26They might still be playing, though,
27:28Dottie, because that might be
27:29a 12-month-a-year sport
27:31because every time I turn around,
27:33they're playing there.
27:34But you're right.
27:34The Argonauts in there.
27:35Cowboys versus the Elks
27:36or something like that.
27:37Make it happen.
27:38Arizona and Houston.
27:39They'll play this weekend, Joe.
27:40We don't have to make
27:40that one happen.
27:41We know it's happening.
27:421 o'clock start.
27:43Jacoby Brissett.
27:44Maybe the bottom
27:45has finally fallen out
27:46on Arizona,
27:46but, boy,
27:47they're going to throw it a lot
27:4840-plus times every game.
27:49I don't know if you want to do that
27:50against Houston's defense,
27:52but Houston, Joe,
27:52that look-ahead line,
27:536 1⁄2.
27:54You know where it sits now?
27:58We're just saying, like,
27:59Arizona, it's over, man.
28:00It's over.
28:02It's so hard to trust
28:04this Houston team
28:05offensively to do anything.
28:07I mean, sure, they'll win,
28:09but they're not going to win
28:10because they're dropping
28:1140 points on you.
28:12That's not what this team does.
28:15And certainly, the Rams
28:16were able to take advantage
28:18of the mismatches
28:20that they had on the field
28:21against Arizona last week,
28:23but do we really think
28:24that's what Houston is going to be?
28:26Houston's not capable
28:28of matching that.
28:29I don't see that happening there.
28:31So, yeah, Texans right now,
28:34Donnie, 10-3 to the under
28:35this season,
28:36the most profitable team
28:37to the under in the NFL.
28:39I don't see that changing
28:40here in this game.
28:42Oh, don't think it either.
28:43How about this next game, though, Joe?
28:44The Raiders and the Eagles,
28:45and I find this fascinating
28:47because, again,
28:47we talk so much about
28:48the predictive markets here
28:50and when to buy the dip.
28:51The Eagles certainly are on a dip,
28:53and this isn't like,
28:54because you lose,
28:55the Bears are a quality team
28:56they lost to.
28:56The Dallas Cowboys have some weaponry,
28:58and the Dallas Cowboys
28:58are particularly at home.
28:59They blew both of those games.
29:00Yes, they did.
29:01And they had a lead
29:01in the fourth court
29:02against the Chargers.
29:03The Chargers still are a decent team
29:04that will be heading
29:05to the playoffs.
29:06The opposite end of the spectrum
29:08is coming from a place
29:09notorious for the spectrum
29:11back in the day
29:11in Philadelphia.
29:13The Vegas Raiders,
29:14they're out of the playoffs.
29:15They're probably going to fire
29:16their coach.
29:17Horrendous talent-wise,
29:18the worst defense in the NFL
29:20outside of Cincinnati
29:21is coming to town.
29:22So I ask you this question, Joe.
29:23The Eagles are favored
29:24by 11 to 11 and a half,
29:26depending where he's shopping at,
29:27and a total of 38 and a half.
29:28There's two ways this game goes.
29:30The Eagles just catch a deep breath
29:31and say,
29:32all we want to do is win
29:3321-14.
29:37It feels good
29:37to be back in the win column.
29:39Or is this an anger game
29:41for the Philadelphia Eagles,
29:42where it's a must
29:43that they win
29:44by two-plus touchdowns
29:45and have their offense,
29:46no matter the score,
29:48no matter the point in the game,
29:49continue to press
29:50the lever down
29:52and try to score
29:52as much as they can, Joe.
29:54That's what I'm having
29:55an issue with in this game.
29:56How do you see it?
29:58Well, historically, Donnie,
30:00this has been a very good spot
30:02to back the big home favorite.
30:04Why?
30:04Because of that low total,
30:0638 and a half.
30:07When we usually get
30:08to this time of year
30:09and the weather comes into play
30:11and we're getting
30:12these kinds of big favorites
30:14at home
30:15and we're under 40 points,
30:1727-19-2 against the numbers.
30:20So it has been very profitable
30:22to say, yeah,
30:23Philadelphia,
30:24it's a big number.
30:25I get it.
30:25But at this time of year, Donnie,
30:27it's well worth backing here.
30:29I would only look
30:30at the Eagles in this spot
30:32because quite honestly,
30:33I mean,
30:33what are you going to get?
30:34Pick it?
30:35Like, who's going
30:36for the Raiders exactly
30:37and what's the motivation here?
30:40Like, come on.
30:41Again, you're out of it.
30:43You're on the West Coast team.
30:44You're used to playing in a dome.
30:45You live in warmer weather.
30:46You come to Philadelphia,
30:47it's going to be colder temperatures.
30:48It's outdoors.
30:48It's one o'clock.
30:49And again,
30:49I want to look
30:51from an Eagles perspective
30:52without getting so angry
30:54at myself saying,
30:55how could I take their team
30:55total Monday night
30:56when they should have
30:56hit it easily?
30:57But again,
30:58you have to take
30:58the recency bias out.
31:00Each and every week
31:00is different in the NFL
31:01and how you slice it up.
31:02Does anybody want to go out
31:03and bet the Eagles
31:03at minus 11 right now?
31:04No, they don't.
31:05But there are some things
31:06that you want to take
31:06Jalen Hurts in a bounce back.
31:08Do you want to take
31:08Saquon Fresh of 100 game?
31:10Every single week,
31:11you see A.J. Brown
31:12back into the fall
31:12with 100 plus yards.
31:14It's interesting to try
31:15to think about it
31:15early in the week.
31:16Another interesting one, Joe,
31:17that we've been talking
31:18about all morning,
31:19the Indianapolis Colts
31:19was listed as a TBD quarterback
31:21to take on Sam Darnold
31:23and Seattle.
31:24By the way,
31:24did you know Seattle
31:24was struggling really bad
31:26last week
31:26with an Atlanta team
31:27on the road
31:276-6 at the break?
31:29Blew the doors off
31:30on them in the second half
31:31with a 13.5 point spread
31:33and a total 42.5.
31:37If the Colts go with Rivers,
31:38do you like the 13.5?
31:40If they don't,
31:41I don't know how much more
31:41it's going to change
31:42at this point.
31:43How do you even play this?
31:44How do we have a number up
31:47when we have no idea
31:48who the quarterback
31:49is going to be here?
31:50Is it Rivers?
31:52Is it Rive?
31:53Is there any chance
31:55Riley Leonard goes?
31:56I have no idea
31:57how we're even at 13.5
32:00at this point.
32:01And you're right, Donnie.
32:03If Rivers goes,
32:04if they decide he's the guy,
32:06does that number go up?
32:07Does it go down?
32:09Or is it just going to say
32:11that's what we're looking at here?
32:12Very hard game to look at.
32:14I'll tell you,
32:15if it's Rivers,
32:17I think it goes a little bit lower
32:18than the 13.5
32:19because hear me out on this.
32:20Like, I don't think
32:21he's going to come back, Joe,
32:22and say, hey,
32:22he threw 35 times
32:23for 350 yards.
32:24That's not the case.
32:26I actually would look
32:26at the total under
32:27because you'd be crazy
32:28to say,
32:29Phillip, get out there
32:30and throw 30 plus times.
32:31You have one of the best
32:32running backs in football.
32:33They're going to control the game.
32:34So if it's Rivers, Joe,
32:35I actually like the under
32:37in this game
32:37as opposed to anybody else
32:38who starts a quarterback
32:39for the Colts.
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