'Critical Crossroads' for US Economy: Stephanie Roth

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Transcript

00:00Let's talk about the data right now, Stephanie. A rate cut next Wednesday is basically all but baked in.

00:06For policymakers, what is the takeaway from this week's offering of data, whether it's ADP and Jabba's claims

00:11or this morning's consumer inflation expectations that would influence or most influence their forecast in the SEP?

00:20Yeah, it seems so far like the SEP will probably be largely unchanged.

00:24The data this week is just another indication of that in the sense that it's been incredibly mixed.

00:28We've gotten claims that were quite low, in fact, overly low.

00:33Our sense is that was probably driven by seasonality.

00:36Today's consumer spending data was disappointing with negative revisions historically.

00:40When you zoom out, it looks like we're an economy that has certainly slowed down quite a bit this year.

00:45The labor market is in this low-hire, low-fire backdrop that doesn't appear to have changed.

00:49So the question is where we go from here because we're kind of at this critical crossroads for the economy

00:53where things either have to stabilize and pick up, which is our view,

00:57or this deceleration just continues.

00:59We're not at an equilibrium where we can kind of stay in this slow-growth environment.

01:03It kind of has to go in one of two directions.

01:05Our very much base case is that things will start to pick up as we get a lot of tailwinds heading into 2026.

01:11List of tips is what we want to do now because we're not going to be.

01:16We want to stay in this way while we're going to allow this tomorrow.

01:19So we're going to be heading to the next top of the section and we're heading to the汁 Feeling

01:32to look inside by the next 10th section.