00:00Ellen, let me start with you. Do you share Greg Peters' concern that a potential Fed chair, Kevin Hassett, may struggle to deliver all the rate cuts that Trump is pushing for, that he may not have the credibility with the committee?
00:11We do share that view. When we look at the Fed chair, he's really just one person, and it's a whole committee that makes these choices.
00:19And when we look at the makeup right now, we understand that he's really just replacing Governor Myron, Mirren, who's dovish himself.
00:27So we're losing one dov to gain another dov, and we don't think he necessarily has the pull.
00:33We also don't think the economic data supports the view right now that we're going to get those committee members, potential voters in 2026, that are leaning, I won't say hawkish.
00:43They're not expecting to hike rates or anything like that, but leaning against the need for an aggressive pace of rate cuts like those probabilities you were talking about before.
00:52Our outlook would change a little bit based on the Lisa Cook situation and then based on what Fed chair Powell's plans are.
00:58He's been very tight-lipped about what he plans on doing.
01:01But if we were to get three more Kevin Hassetts or Kevin Hassett-like governors out there, then our outlook would change a little bit, and we would expect to see a sharper pace of rate cuts.
01:10But for right now, we're in the cut next week and then probably one or two in 2026.
01:14We're in the cut next week and then we're in the cut next week.
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