Can India balance Russia and America? Experts weigh in

India Today

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday left New Delhi after concluding his two-day state visit. During the 23rd India–Russia Annual Summit, the two sides signed a total of 11 agreements.

Transcript

00:00I'm joined by two very special guests at this moment. When I ask the big questions,

00:04can India play any role at all in the Ukraine-Russia war? Can India balance Russia and

00:10America? The Modi-Putin-Bonomi, what is the message? Joining me now, Naftesh Sarna. He's

00:17been a senior diplomat, served in the United States as ambassador. Daniel Freed, former

00:23diplomat, also joins me. I want to look at the tangled U.S. and Russia with India in the middle.

00:29And Naftesh Sarna, give us a sense. We've had the Bonhomi that we've seen between President

00:35Putin and Prime Minister Modi, but there's also Mr. Trump somewhere in the background,

00:40the trade talk still in a limbo. How does India balance its long-term all-weather friendship

00:47with Russia and strategic relationship with the fact that the United States is also looking

00:53at Russia in a very, very different light? How does India balance this, particularly at

01:02a time when the Ukraine war continues to rage? Thank you, Rajdeep. I think, you know, balancing

01:11big power relations is bread and butter for Indian foreign policy. And I think that we have done

01:20for many years. At this particular moment, I think it is made somewhat easier by the fact

01:26that President Trump himself is in conversations to end the Ukraine-Russia conflict. And any efforts

01:35that we make through our conversations towards an eventual peace should be fine for everybody

01:43concerned. Of course, there are differences. You know, India has been sanctioned by 25% extra

01:51tariffs for buying Russian oil, very oddly, because, you know, there are others, including China,

01:58who have bought more oil than India has. And in the past, we have been criticized for buying depending

02:06too much on Russian weaponry. But I think Mr. Trump fundamentally has changed the ground between

02:15where all this is happening. He has not given India the strategically, you know, positive treatment

02:25that we had worked on for the relationship for the last 25 years. And I think today India is well

02:32justified in seeking its own interests through a practical implementation of strategic autonomy.

02:40And this is frankly what is happening. If there is a message in this for President Trump, I think

02:46it has been very loudly conveyed and it will be heard.

02:54So India's strategic autonomy is a message that it will be sent to Russia, to the United States strongly.

03:00Daniel Fried, do you believe that that's a message that the United States will get when these pictures

03:06play out across the world, the pictures of the Bonhomie between the Russians and the Indians?

03:11How will Washington see it? Well, the first problem India has is that Washington or the Trump

03:19administration is not one thing. The Trump administration, even more than most American

03:25administrations, is an uneasy coalition of groups with very different views. But I think the ambassador

03:34made a good point. Americans have to recognize India's strategic autonomy as a fact. That's just where we are.

03:42Secondly, I think that India can play a constructive role. Trump deserves credit for pushing a

03:49negotiated end to the war. But Putin so far has absolutely no interest in taking these negotiations

03:56seriously. He has stonewalled. The Ukrainians have cooperated, the Europeans have cooperated,

04:03the Russians have given nothing. And this is where India can actually put its weight.

04:09I think if the prime minister is as smart as I hear he is, then he may well find a way to impress

04:17upon Putin the need to work to negotiate an end of the war, because that will serve everybody's interests.

04:24But do you actually believe India, Mr. Fried, if I may push you before I come back to that,

04:33do you believe India has that kind of leverage to push Russia to end the war?

04:37I think Putin needs India to a significant degree. Putin does not want to be isolated.

04:46India's message would be taken seriously in the Kremlin. Now, not India alone. I'm not trying to

04:54put the burden on India. I think the United States has to use our own leverage against Russia, and Trump

05:02has it. He has not yet used it. But I think India can play a role, and that would be appreciated.

05:08Look, the Americans have learned that we need to work with India, that we will not agree on everything,

05:13but we can agree on a great many things. Russia is involved in an imperial war, a war against civilians,

05:23a war against the Ukrainian nation. And that violates what I understand are India's longstanding

05:30principles. I'm not asking India to break with Russia. It won't do so. It won't do so. But India

05:38could play a constructive role, and I hope it does. Let me take that to you, Naftesh Sarna. When the

05:47Prime Minister today spoke, he said that India doesn't have a neutral position. India stands for

05:52peace. We've heard the Prime Minister say this in the past also at various summits where President

05:57Putin had on occasion has been there. This is not an era of war. The truth of the matter is,

06:03there is no sign of the war ending. And even in that interview to India Today TV, President Putin

06:09did not sound like someone who has peace in mind. So given what we are seeing on the ground,

06:16do you really believe that India has any leverage? And could India, as a result, by getting too close

06:22at any stage to Russia or being seen to get too close to Russia, antagonize allies both in Europe

06:28and in the United States? Well, on both your questions, Vaislipanding, on the first one,

06:34we have to be realistic. Ukraine and global situation would have been one aspect of the

06:41conversations between Prime Minister Modi and President Putin. We must remember the real purpose

06:47of this visit is to re-energize the India-Russia relationship, which is a very old time-tested

06:54relationship. And this is the 23rd summit. He's not actually come here to resolve the Ukraine issue.

07:02That is one aspect of the visit, because everything around the globe is discussed when leaders like

07:10this meet. And India is in a particularly good position of being able to talk to Russia as we talk

07:18to Ukraine, we talk to Europe, and we talk to the United States. So I'm sure the Prime Minister,

07:24when he chose those words, that India is in favor of peace, was in his way conveying a message. But

07:31the entire burden of the visit is re-energizing India-Russia relations. You know, whether it's nuclear

07:39energy, whether it's energy, whether it is connectivity, whether it is trade and so on, and giving more meat to

07:47that relationship. So we must remember that. And the second...

07:53But if I look at the... Sure, but Mr. Sanna, just for a moment, if I look at the numbers,

08:00the fact is, we have a huge ballooning trade deficit with Russia. Now, do you believe that,

08:06therefore, our relationship with Russia, which for the longest time was very defense-centric,

08:11we need Russia to also start buying Indian goods. It's all very well to have these handshakes and

08:17say that we are all weather friends. But the truth is, Russia as a friend continues to get,

08:24have the benefit of a huge trade imbalance with India. Absolutely. Because, you know, we have,

08:30and that has been the imbalance in the relationship, particularly in the last couple of years,

08:35when we have, by an accident of geopolitics, we have bought so much oil from Russia. But earlier on,

08:42our overall trade has been low. So now we have to make it a sustainable trade and economic relationship,

08:50which actually, you know, puts more, more sort of, you know, actual stuff on the table,

08:57beyond the conversations and beyond the good feeling, and even beyond security, defense, and nuclear energy.

09:04So we have to open pathways. And I see, I think they seem to be keen to start this conversation. He has

09:10come with a huge business delegation, and they have had conversations. We must remember that they also

09:17need this economic and trade relationship. They need people. That is why you see the labor migration

09:25agreement. They need people that they didn't need cooperation to work, say, in shipbuilding in the

09:30Arctic and so on. So I think if both sides realize that the relationship at the moment is imbalanced,

09:38it is too much towards security and defense and nuclear reactors. So we have to diversify it. So

09:46you're absolutely right. It has to become a sustainable relationship. Okay.

09:52Good to get two fine voices. Navtej Sarna, Daniel Freed for joining me on the India today on the news

10:02today. I appreciate you joining me and giving us a sense of the road ahead for India, Russia,

10:07particularly with the Washington factor also looming large.

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