- 4 months ago
This episode of India First delves into escalating trade tensions between the United States and India following the US decision to impose an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports, raising the total tariff to 50%.
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00:00Big story coming in on India first. The United States has imposed additional sanctions on India, additional tariff. 25% additional tariffs have been put on India. Big, big story here on India first.
00:16The big question remains, what will India's response be? The United States had already spoken of 25% tariffs. Now, U.S. President Donald Trump has slapped an additional 25% tariff on India in response to India's continued oil purchase from Russia.
00:33Donald Trump has just signed an executive order imposing the additional 25% tariff, and this effectively would take tariffs imposed on India to 50%.
00:42The statement that the U.S. President Donald Trump has just put out says by the authority vested in me as president by the Constitution and the law of the United States of America,
00:54including the Emergency Economic Powers Act, to deal with the national emergency described in the Executive Order 14066.
01:04Donald Trump writes, I determine that it is necessary to appropriate to impose an additional duty on imports of articles of India, which is directly or indirectly importing Russian Federation oil.
01:18In my judgment, imposing tariffs as described below in addition to maintaining the other measures taken to address national emergency described in the Executive Order.
01:30The big question remains, how is this a national emergency in the United States of America?
01:37Is Donald Trump misusing the emergency powers of the president of the United States to impose tariffs?
01:42Because several analysts in the United States have also argued that imposition of tariffs is the work of the U.S. Congress and not the president.
01:50And is he using tariffs as a weapon to target sovereign democracies and force them into submission?
01:59The other big question on India, how will this 50% tariff impact Indian exports to the United States of America?
02:06What impact will this have on the comprehensive strategic partnership between India and the United States?
02:13Both India and the United States had actually put a lot in this relationship.
02:19They had invested very heavily in this relationship post the Pokhran nuclear test of 1998.
02:26Then in 1999, when the Kargil War happened, then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and U.S. President Bill Clinton in 2000, when they met.
02:36And subsequently, what was very popular in those times was something that was called as NSSP.
02:43Next step in strategic partnership between Dr. Manmohan Singh and George W. Bush.
02:47Now, I have the finest panel of experts who join me on India first to analyze these developments.
02:53I have Catherine Hada, former diplomat and senior associate chair of on India and emerging Asia economies joining us on the show.
03:01I have Craig Kafura, director of public opinion and foreign policy at the Chicago Council of Global Affairs joining me.
03:07Puneet Aluwalia was a candidate to be left-in governor of Virginia.
03:10He's a Republican.
03:12He joins me on the show.
03:13Ambassador Vivek Karju, in just a moment, will join me.
03:16Siddharth Zarabi, group editor, business.
03:19He joins me on this broadcast.
03:20And Siddharth, first to you, 25% additional tariff.
03:26Was it expected?
03:27Was India bracing for 50%?
03:30And what does this mean for India?
03:32Siddharth.
03:32Gaurav, very clearly, this is the Russia penalty that he had threatened to Levi.
03:38It's the same number as 25%.
03:4025% takes the total impact to 50%.
03:43The first part of 25% comes into effect as we speak because that deadline was 7th August U.S. time.
03:52And this additional 25% happens 21 days from this deadline.
03:57So 27th, 28th of August.
03:59In effect, in the first week of August, therefore, by the beginning of September, all Indian exports to the United States will be 50% more expensive.
04:12Is this the end of it?
04:14Can 50% go up or down?
04:16We don't know.
04:17But it's going to have a clear-cut impact in the near and short term on Indian exports and the U.S. consumer for a variety of goods categories.
04:27So let's take this step by step.
04:29I also have Karishma joining us on this show.
04:32Karishma, India was bracing for this.
04:35India has effectively been able to grow at 6.5%, 7% the RBI predictions.
04:44But with this, with 50%, how are markets likely to react?
04:49You've been speaking to analysts.
04:50What impact will this have short term and medium term?
04:53Gaurab, we'll have to go by the year when it comes to watching how markets will react to this.
04:59Because the 25% tariff that had just been announced two days back, well, you know, strangely, the markets did not react much to it.
05:09There was a slight dip.
05:10They were flat on its opening.
05:12And they also pulled back again quickly, which also speaks of the fact that investors were prepared of this to happen.
05:21Definitely when the whole announcement kicked off in April, it was the first time when President Donald Trump had introduced his idea of this tariff war across the countries,
05:31is when markets across APAC region reacted, be it Japan, be it China, be it India.
05:36In terms of resilience in economy, if we talk about how RBI is looking at it or how the government is looking at it,
05:43or even IMF, which released its recent global economic paper,
05:47they've all spoken of the fact that our economy is pretty resilient to take in these factors.
05:53And headwinds of geopolitical issues is something that India has been taking on for a while.
05:59And it's been maintaining its stance of growing at 6.5%.
06:02But the big question is an additional 25% tariff.
06:06Were we expecting that?
06:08We are currently at par with Brazil.
06:10We are one of the top, in the top two category of being imposed with these heavy tariffs,
06:16despite the fact that we had a first-mover advantage.
06:18And it's going to majorly impact a lot of our sectors.
06:21We are talking about engineering goods.
06:23We are talking about electronic goods.
06:24We are talking about textile, about gems and jewellery.
06:26We export all of this to the U.S.
06:29Currently, pharma looks something that needs to be discussed on,
06:34because we do not have clarity if these tariffs will be applicable on pharma or not,
06:39or will they be exempted under Section 232.
06:41So, stay with me.
06:42Let's take the initial responses as this development is just taking place.
06:46And we'll go sector by sector.
06:48There are some analysts in the United States who have argued that Donald Trump is shooting himself in the foot.
06:52Is he actually doing that?
06:54Is he throwing this relationship away?
06:56Both India and the United States had invested so heavily in this relationship.
07:00But Ambassador Karju, your first response to this news coming in,
07:04Donald Trump has signed an executive order,
07:06additional 25% tariff on India for buying Russian oil.
07:10Look, I think what we said two days ago,
07:16when he threatened to impose these tariffs,
07:19that all this was unreasonable and unjustified was entirely correct.
07:25Countries look after their national interests,
07:29and we've been doing the same thing with regard to purchase of Russian oil.
07:33The problem that I foresee, Gaurav,
07:36and I'm going to be candid with you,
07:38is that our diplomacy over the last decade
07:45has been conducted in a very personalized way.
07:50It has been projected as the pursuit of personal chemistry.
07:57This particular case shows us the limitations of personal chemistry
08:05when it comes to the pursuit of national interests.
08:10Why do I say it?
08:11And give me one second for this,
08:13because I think it's important.
08:15You see,
08:15leaders are responsible ultimately to their electorates.
08:21I think Trump in his own strange,
08:26what I consider to be totally quote-unquote mad way,
08:31thinks he is responsible to those who have supported him,
08:36his MAGA group, right?
08:39And he is not bothered about personal friendships,
08:42even if he may say so-and-so is my friend.
08:46We have to be equally cold-blooded.
08:50The problem I see is that over the last 10 years,
08:55we've hemmed ourselves in.
08:57And now we'll have to be very nimble,
09:00very adroit in breaking these,
09:05in going over these geopolitical hurdles that we created.
09:10Because let us not forget
09:12that the statement that we issued
09:15clubbed Europe and the United States together.
09:19Yes.
09:20When, if I may say,
09:22the casus vele,
09:23if I may use that word,
09:25was really the Americans.
09:26The Europeans are being hypocritical,
09:28yes,
09:29but they've not imposed tariffs.
09:31So if I were there,
09:32I would have focused narrowly
09:34two days ago-
09:35On the United States.
09:36On the United States,
09:37not on the Europeans,
09:39because today I may need the Europeans
09:41more than any time,
09:42any other time.
09:43Now,
09:44as far as China is concerned,
09:45today it's been announced
09:46that Prime Minister is going to China.
09:48Yes,
09:49we have in the past
09:51always followed this policy of multi-alignment.
09:54But we know our difficulties with China,
09:57whatever we may say,
09:58after 2020.
09:59So with Russia,
10:02we cannot abandon them.
10:05Whatever Trump may say,
10:07we've got to now bite the bullet.
10:10We've got to get the political class together.
10:13We've got to get the nation together.
10:15And that will require great statesmanship
10:20on both the part of the government
10:24and the opposition.
10:26Because don't-
10:26That India speaks in one voice.
10:29Yes.
10:29And my last point,
10:31here Siddharth and Siddharth
10:33will be able to correct me,
10:35but it is not only a question
10:37of these tariffs having an impact
10:40on our commercial and economic ties
10:42with the United States.
10:44They might have a bearing
10:46on our commercial and economic ties
10:48elsewhere too.
10:50And that is my concern.
10:52But if I'm wrong,
10:53I'll be delighted.
10:55But let's-
10:55I'll come to Siddharth.
10:57I'll come to Siddharth.
10:58And Siddharth,
10:58you must respond to
10:59what Ambassador Karju argues
11:01or is putting forward that point.
11:04Will this also have a wider impact?
11:06But I also quickly want to bring in
11:08Craig Kafura into this conversation.
11:11And Purit Alwali also joins me
11:12from the United States.
11:14Craig Kafura,
11:15the impression in the developing world
11:17is that Donald Trump wants submission.
11:20He does not want a win-win deal.
11:23He wants a Trump wins,
11:25everyone submits kind of a deal.
11:29I don't think that's an incorrect reading
11:31of how the administration is going about this.
11:33The administration seems very clear
11:35that it's willing to impose
11:36substantial economic pain
11:37on other countries
11:38in exchange for imposing
11:40slightly less economic pain on itself.
11:41But I have to say,
11:43this approach really isn't a popular one
11:45if you look at polls
11:46done among the American public.
11:48Most Americans now disapprove
11:49of Trump's handling of tariffs
11:51and foreign trade.
11:52Our own polls at the Chicago Council
11:54find that most Americans
11:55now support pursuing a policy
11:56of free trade
11:57instead of trying to do
11:59these tariff carve-outs
12:00and trade wars.
12:01So, although Trump's certainly
12:03pursuing his agenda,
12:04it's really not resonating much
12:05with the public at home.
12:07Okay.
12:08Punita Alwalia,
12:09sanctions on India
12:10and not on China,
12:12which is actually the largest,
12:14you know,
12:16country buying largest amount
12:18of oil from Russia.
12:19Clearly,
12:20as Henry Kissinger warned
12:22to be America's friend
12:23is fatal.
12:24Well, God,
12:26the first thing is
12:27it's a pivotal moment
12:28for India to do,
12:30to do,
12:31it's important for India
12:32to show that
12:32they want to be
12:33a strong partner
12:34to the United States.
12:36As a proud Indian American,
12:37I feel that we should not
12:39be at this moment
12:39or India should not be
12:40at this moment
12:41where it is.
12:42I think
12:43President Trump was,
12:45he's fulfilling
12:46his campaign promise.
12:47He's,
12:48whatever you're seeing
12:48is basically
12:49he had said it many times
12:51and he's doing that.
12:52And secondly,
12:53President Trump
12:54was expecting a deal
12:56out of India
12:57long before.
12:58I think India
12:59should have been
12:59the first
13:00or the second one
13:00to come out
13:01and strike a deal
13:02with India.
13:02But I guess
13:03there's a miscalculation
13:04of the part
13:04of the negotiators
13:06because they negotiated
13:07themselves out of the deal.
13:08At the same time,
13:09I agree with the ambassador
13:10earlier that this is going
13:12to have a ripple effect
13:13just not on Indian,
13:14the relationship
13:15between U.S. and India,
13:16but on Indians
13:17and the diaspora
13:18and Indian interests
13:19all around
13:20because you know
13:21how President Trump gets.
13:23It's not submission.
13:24I disagree with the word.
13:25President Trump
13:26is looking for
13:26fair and balanced trade.
13:27He's a unifier.
13:29He wants to unify.
13:30How is this
13:31fair and balanced?
13:32Well,
13:33you see,
13:34you want to have
13:36reciprocal trade.
13:38Okay?
13:38And that's what
13:39folks have to focus on.
13:41Again,
13:42Gaurav,
13:42you're looking
13:43from the Indian perspective
13:44and that's the reason
13:45why they missed opportunity
13:46that the five times
13:47they met
13:48and they were not able
13:49to chalk a deal.
13:50That's what you need
13:51to do is
13:51what you really think
13:52is look and think
13:53from the American perspective,
13:56the President's perspective
13:57to come and find a way
13:58to chalk a deal
13:59which is a win for both
14:00He wanted a big headline.
14:02He wanted...
14:02May I respond to that,
14:04Gaurav?
14:06Absolutely,
14:07Ambassador.
14:07Puri Talwali,
14:08I'm just bringing
14:09Ambassador Karju
14:09to respond to you
14:10before I bring in
14:11Siddharth and Karishma
14:12into this conversation
14:12but go ahead,
14:13Yes, sir.
14:14Look,
14:16all through
14:17after the Second World War
14:20it was understood
14:21that developing countries
14:23had special needs.
14:25Our situation,
14:27we are the world's
14:28largest
14:28country by population.
14:32Yes, sir.
14:3250% of our people
14:34are involved
14:35in agriculture
14:36which contributes
14:38only 15%
14:39of our GDP.
14:41We cannot,
14:42no government
14:43in India
14:44can give up
14:45their interests.
14:48There are certain
14:49sectors in agriculture
14:50we simply cannot
14:51open up immediately.
14:54That is what
14:54Trump wanted.
14:56We can't open up
14:57corn,
14:58we can't open up
15:00soya beans,
15:01we can't open up
15:02dairy,
15:03we can't.
15:05No government can
15:06and till now
15:08the Western world
15:09understood this.
15:11This was the basis
15:13of the WTO.
15:15Siddharth will correct me again.
15:16I'm no expert in this
15:18but I understand so much.
15:20I've remained a different
15:21all my life.
15:22This much I understand
15:23that this was the very
15:24basis of the WTO
15:25and the basis
15:26of international trade.
15:29Today Trump says
15:30that a developing,
15:32developed country
15:33and a developing country
15:35are on par,
15:36there is nothing
15:38like history.
15:40Trump refuses
15:40to accept
15:41the existential
15:42crises of our time.
15:45He refuses
15:45to look at climate change.
15:47He is absolutely,
15:49if I'm sorry to say
15:50that we have
15:51a bizarre person
15:52as president
15:53of the world's
15:55most powerful country
15:56who doesn't understand
15:58the reality
15:58of the planet
16:00that we are
16:00yes
16:01and that is
16:01the tragedy
16:02that there is
16:04a vast
16:04So you will see
16:06the positivity
16:07in
16:07Honorable Ambassador,
16:10I respect your
16:11Puneet Alwalia
16:11with due respect
16:12when America
16:13and India
16:14two of the world's
16:16most powerful democracies
16:17the oldest
16:18and the largest democracies
16:19and President Trump
16:21cannot
16:21appreciate
16:22what is
16:23India's
16:23basic red line.
16:24Let's get past that.
16:27India has now become
16:28a large economy
16:30and it's a growing economy
16:31and if you
16:31define yourself
16:33either you're a
16:33developing economy
16:34or you have achieved
16:35where you need to go
16:36but we're not here
16:37to do that.
16:37What's important is
16:38let's sharpen our pencil
16:40and find a way
16:41to make this deal
16:41as I say
16:42that this is going to
16:43have a pivotal
16:44moment for India
16:45and it's going to have
16:46a ripple effect
16:46on multiple fronts.
16:48So you can bash up Trump
16:49you can have
16:49all the polls
16:50you want to do it
16:51but he's the president
16:52he's the one
16:53and then he has
16:54a set of advisors
16:55who really want to see
16:57this relationship
16:58blossom
16:59but at the same time
17:00there are other forces
17:01at work
17:01that want to see
17:02that relationship
17:03really go on
17:04a downward spiral.
17:05That's my biggest concern
17:06and I've been watching
17:07this very closely
17:07and unfortunately
17:08not part of the
17:09negotiation
17:10to help India
17:11find a path
17:12to mitigate
17:13this relationship
17:13but the fact is
17:15that all that
17:16has been done
17:16so far
17:17has to be wiped
17:18clean by Prime Minister Modi
17:20find a new way
17:21to get and reach
17:22out to President Trump
17:23and let's have a deal
17:24this is the time
17:26to make a deal
17:26so let's have a deal
17:27which is a win-win
17:28it cannot be
17:29President Trump wins
17:31and India loses
17:32I agree with that
17:33it's got to be
17:34as a
17:34look I was born in India
17:37I'm proud of my heritage
17:38but I believe
17:39I think the deal
17:40has to be done
17:40Ambassador said
17:42very correctly
17:43yes it's about personalities
17:44I think both Modi
17:45and Trump
17:46has personalities
17:47but don't be
17:48a tough negotiator
17:49and negotiate yourself
17:50out of the deal
17:50I think there's still
17:51a possibility
17:52and I believe
17:53that the folks
17:54should really get
17:54and sharpen their pencil
17:55and find a way
17:56to make this thing work
17:56and Puneet I want you
17:57to stay on
17:57stay on with me
17:58Puneet Aluwalia
17:59you know Siddharth
18:00you want to quickly
18:01respond
18:01is no deal
18:03better than a bad deal
18:05if you look at it
18:05from the Indian perspective
18:06I want you to respond
18:07to that
18:08but there's breaking news
18:09that's just coming in
18:09there's breaking news
18:10coming in
18:11we've just got a reaction
18:12from Shashi Tharoor
18:14on US President Trump
18:16imposing an additional
18:1625% tariff on India
18:18Congress MP Shashi Tharoor
18:20says and I quote
18:21I don't think
18:22it's particularly
18:23good news for us
18:25that takes our
18:26total tariffs
18:26to 50%
18:27and that's going
18:28to make our
18:29goods unaffordable
18:30to a lot of people
18:31in America
18:32and in particular
18:33when you're looking
18:34at these percentages
18:35you have to
18:36compare them
18:37with the tariff
18:37being levied
18:38on some of our
18:39competitors
18:40I'm afraid
18:41that if you look
18:42at people like
18:44countries like
18:45Vietnam or Indonesia
18:46or Philippines
18:46even Bangladesh
18:47and Pakistan
18:48have lower tariffs
18:50than us
18:50then ultimately
18:51people will not
18:53be buying goods
18:54from us
18:55in America
18:55if they can buy
18:56them cheaper
18:57elsewhere
18:58so that's not
18:59very good for
19:00our exports
19:00to America
19:01this means
19:02we need to
19:04seriously
19:04diversify
19:06to other countries
19:07and other markets
19:08that may be
19:08interested in what
19:10we have to offer
19:11we now have an
19:12FTA with the UK
19:13we are now talking
19:14to the EU
19:15there are many
19:16countries in which
19:18hopefully
19:19we will be able
19:20to
19:21but in the short
19:22term
19:22it's definitely
19:23a blow
19:24but there's a reaction
19:26that's coming in
19:26let's listen in
19:27let's listen in
19:27I don't think
19:29that's particularly
19:29good news for us
19:30but you know
19:31obviously if that
19:32takes our total
19:32tariffs to 50%
19:34then that's going
19:36to make our goods
19:36unaffordable
19:37to a lot of people
19:38in America
19:39and in particularly
19:40when you're looking
19:41at these percentages
19:42you have to compare
19:44them with the tariffs
19:45being levied on
19:46some of our competitors
19:47and I'm afraid
19:48if you look at
19:49people like Vietnam
19:50Indonesia
19:51Philippines
19:51even Bangladesh
19:53and Pakistan
19:54have lower tariffs
19:55than us
19:55then ultimately
19:56people will not
19:58be buying goods
19:59from us in America
20:00if they can buy them
20:01cheaper elsewhere
20:02so that's not
20:03very good for our
20:04exports to America
20:05this means we need
20:06to very seriously
20:07diversify to other
20:09countries and other
20:10markets which may be
20:11interested in what
20:11we have to offer
20:13Siddharth we need
20:15to diversify
20:16no two ways
20:17about it
20:18but you know
20:19Ambassador Kaju
20:19asked whether
20:20Trump tariffs
20:22will have an impact
20:24overall
20:25not just on
20:26India-US relationship
20:27but will this have
20:28a cascading effect
20:29Gaurav it's your show
20:31but a question to
20:32Puneet
20:32which can be
20:34answered later
20:34why are there
20:35no sanctions
20:36on China
20:37despite being
20:39the largest buyer
20:40of Russian crude oil
20:41the answer really
20:42Gaurav
20:43to combine
20:44both those questions
20:45is the fact
20:46is that
20:46as far as
20:47India is concerned
20:48it's the only
20:50country in the
20:51present
20:51time
20:53that
20:54President Trump
20:55has chosen
20:55to penalize
20:56for importing
20:57Russian crude oil
20:58the only one
20:59there are threats
21:00for China
21:01nothing about
21:02the European Union
21:03so clearly
21:04it is not
21:05a rational
21:06piece of
21:07economic decision
21:08making
21:08and while
21:09Puneet Aluwalya
21:10seems to suggest
21:11that
21:11you know
21:12we negotiated
21:14ourselves out of it
21:16sorry
21:16that's not going
21:17to happen
21:17we are not going
21:18to sacrifice
21:18the economic
21:19security
21:20well-being
21:21and livelihood
21:21of 500 million
21:23Indians
21:24for Americans
21:26that's not going
21:27to happen
21:27simply not
21:28you can sell
21:28us blueberries
21:29that's fine
21:30but you are not
21:30going to send
21:31us wheat
21:31rice
21:32or soya
21:32and so many
21:33other products
21:33out of the
21:34question
21:35now in
21:35response to
21:37what Mr.
21:37Kadju said
21:38I do not
21:39see an
21:40immediate
21:40impact
21:41beyond what
21:42will be a
21:43disruption
21:43in terms of
21:44supplies to
21:45the United
21:45States
21:45because as
21:46far as
21:47exports to
21:48America
21:48are concerned
21:49as part of
21:51India's GDP
21:52it's a very
21:53small number
21:54so let's
21:55not blow
21:55out the
21:56American
21:56threat
21:57out of
21:57you know
21:58context
21:59yes it
22:00will hurt
22:01certain
22:01sectors
22:02but it
22:02will hurt
22:03American
22:03consumers
22:04more
22:04and is it
22:05already hurting
22:06some of the
22:07American
22:07consumers
22:08Nike
22:08Adidas
22:09if I
22:10might just
22:11say that
22:11I am very
22:12reassured by
22:12what
22:13Siddharth has
22:14said
22:14absolutely
22:15sir
22:16and you
22:16know
22:17President
22:18Trump
22:18responded
22:19to the
22:19real data
22:20by firing
22:20the head
22:21of the
22:22agency
22:22that was
22:23supposed to
22:23come up
22:23with real
22:24data
22:24so nothing
22:25more to be
22:25said
22:26frankly
22:26and you
22:27know
22:28is this
22:29then
22:29as they
22:30say in
22:30the
22:31American
22:31parlance
22:32to the
22:32mattresses
22:34is it
22:34down to
22:35trench
22:35warfare
22:36when it
22:37comes to
22:37a very
22:38strong
22:38strategic
22:39partnership
22:40that both
22:40countries
22:41have put
22:42so much
22:42into
22:42Catherine
22:43Harda
22:43also joins
22:44me on
22:44the
22:44broadcast
22:45Catherine
22:46Harda
22:46in your
22:46appreciation
22:47what do
22:48you make
22:48of this
22:48additional
22:4925%
22:49tariff
22:50that's been
22:51imposed
22:51through this
22:51executive
22:52order
22:52how resilient
22:53is the
22:54India-US
22:55strategic
22:56partnership
22:57in the
22:57face of
22:58this
22:58tariff
22:59dispute
23:00I think
23:01actually
23:02you're
23:02asking
23:02exactly
23:03the right
23:03question
23:04I believe
23:05you know
23:06I've been
23:06involved in
23:06trade
23:07negotiations
23:07in the
23:08past
23:08this one's
23:08obviously
23:09a tough
23:09one
23:10the
23:10United
23:11States
23:11has its
23:11own
23:12red lines
23:12traditionally
23:13we have
23:13something
23:13called
23:13the
23:14Jones
23:14Act
23:14that
23:14prevents
23:15shipping
23:16for example
23:17within the
23:18continental
23:18United States
23:19by foreigners
23:20that's been
23:21a stick
23:21a bone
23:22of contention
23:23with partners
23:24over the
23:24years
23:25I kind
23:25of think
23:26it would
23:26be possible
23:27to get
23:27a deal
23:28I'm
23:28sensing
23:28what the
23:29White House
23:30wants
23:30I'm not
23:31a White
23:31House
23:31insider
23:32but some
23:32sort of
23:33headline
23:33that shows
23:34some new
23:35kind of
23:35deal
23:35you know
23:36I hear
23:36now that
23:37India is
23:37looking for
23:38example on
23:39dairy products
23:39I know
23:40that's a
23:40red line
23:41but having
23:41lived in
23:42India
23:42you know
23:42aged
23:43cheeses
23:43for example
23:44if you
23:45were to
23:45import
23:45United States
23:46aged
23:46cheeses
23:47I don't
23:47think that's
23:47really going
23:48to harm
23:48the Indian
23:49market
23:49so I think
23:50it's really
23:51a matter
23:51for
23:52negotiators
23:53to find
23:54the flexibility
23:55quite frankly
23:56I'm just
23:56more worried
23:57about what
23:57this says
23:58about how
23:58brittle
23:59the relationship
24:00is becoming
24:00and how
24:01personalized
24:02I'm a
24:03diplomat
24:04of 32
24:04years
24:05you know
24:05I do
24:05believe
24:06it's
24:06important
24:06to have
24:07a variety
24:09of issues
24:10on the
24:10table
24:11we just
24:12launched
24:12did a
24:13joint
24:13space
24:13initiative
24:14which is
24:14very
24:15exciting
24:15you know
24:16I think
24:17that this
24:17White House
24:18has
24:18narrowed
24:19the scope
24:20of what
24:20we're
24:21talking
24:21about
24:21to get
24:22deals
24:23you know
24:24to get
24:24trade
24:24to get
24:25but
24:25everyone
24:26knows
24:26we have
24:27a vibrant
24:27NRI
24:28community
24:28in the
24:28United States
24:29our people
24:29to people
24:30ties
24:30everyone
24:31knows
24:31one of
24:31the
24:32strengths
24:32of this
24:32relationship
24:33has been
24:33its broadness
24:34and this
24:34is where
24:35you get
24:35in trouble
24:36when you're
24:36narrowing
24:37it down
24:37just to
24:38trade
24:38just to
24:39defense
24:39which is
24:40important
24:40I think
24:42we can
24:42reach the
24:43trade
24:43agreement
24:43I'm a
24:44little more
24:44worried
24:45about
24:45suddenly
24:45Pakistan
24:46being an
24:47issue
24:47between
24:47our
24:47countries
24:48and it's
24:48going to
24:49take some
24:49work
24:49to get
24:50us on
24:50track
24:50and some
24:51commitment
24:51to do
24:53that
24:53It would
24:53be very
24:54sad
24:55if that
24:55suspicion
24:56of the
24:561970s
24:58was to
24:58creep back
24:59in a
24:59relationship
25:00that
25:00all sides
25:01have invested
25:02so much
25:03into
25:03you know
25:04when we
25:04were covering
25:04the
25:04Kargil
25:05war
25:05and then
25:06when the
25:07relationship
25:07was being
25:07built
25:08from
25:08NSSP
25:09to the
25:10civil
25:10nuclear
25:11deal
25:11to the
25:11comprehensive
25:12strategic
25:12partnership
25:13both sides
25:14have invested
25:14so much
25:15in it
25:15and is
25:15Donald Trump
25:16just throwing
25:16it all out
25:17of the
25:17window
25:17on a
25:19whim
25:19okay
25:19I have
25:20more
25:20breaking
25:20news
25:20coming
25:21and I
25:21have
25:21more
25:21breaking
25:21news
25:22coming
25:22and
25:22Donald
25:22Trump
25:23has
25:23just
25:24said
25:24that
25:25the
25:26order
25:26may
25:26be
25:27modified
25:27if
25:28India
25:29retaliates
25:31against
25:32US
25:32condition
25:34for
25:34modification
25:35including
25:36in light
25:37of
25:38additional
25:38information
25:39recommendation
25:39from
25:40senior
25:40officials
25:41or
25:41changed
25:42circumstances
25:43so is
25:44this then
25:45a hint
25:45that it
25:46could even
25:46go beyond
25:47the 50%
25:49is this
25:49hinting
25:50that there
25:50could be
25:51further
25:52escalation
25:52modification
25:54then what's
25:55the second
25:56ground
25:56he says
25:57should a
25:57foreign
25:57country
25:58retaliate
25:59against
25:59the
26:00United
26:00States
26:00in
26:01response
26:01to
26:02this
26:02action
26:03does
26:03that
26:04mean
26:04if
26:04Russia
26:05does
26:05something
26:06there'll
26:06be
26:06more
26:06sanctions
26:07on
26:07India
26:08where
26:09is
26:09Donald
26:09Trump
26:09actually
26:10taking
26:10this
26:10relationship
26:11now
26:12the
26:12third
26:13condition
26:13that he's
26:14putting
26:14forward
26:14is
26:15should
26:16the
26:16government
26:16of the
26:17Russian
26:17Federation
26:18or a
26:19foreign
26:19country
26:20align
26:21sufficiently
26:21with the
26:22United
26:22States
26:23or
26:24on
26:25national
26:25security
26:26so
26:26is
26:27that
26:27the
26:28hint
26:28Ambassador
26:29Kaju
26:29if
26:30Russia
26:32meets
26:32the
26:32deadline
26:33or if
26:33Russia
26:34walks
26:34the
26:34talk
26:35on
26:35either
26:36ceasefire
26:36or engages
26:37with the
26:37US
26:38the way
26:38Trump
26:38wants
26:39then
26:39these
26:39sanctions
26:40could
26:40come
26:40down
26:40but what
26:41does this
26:41really
26:42mean
26:42he's
26:43making
26:43India
26:44US
26:44relationship
26:45dependent
26:46on the
26:46outcome
26:46of
26:47Russia's
26:48relationship
26:48with the
26:48US
26:49you are
26:50entirely
26:51correct
26:51I think
26:52we are
26:52dealing
26:53with a
26:53very
26:53frustrated
26:54American
26:55president
26:55who had
26:57thought
26:58that once
26:59he got
26:59you
27:00if I'm
27:01sorry to
27:01use the
27:02word
27:02once he
27:02whipped
27:03Zelensky
27:05into line
27:06because that
27:06is what
27:07they virtually
27:07did during
27:08that White
27:09House
27:09meeting
27:09with
27:10Zelensky
27:11Putin
27:12will be
27:12very
27:13happy
27:13and
27:14Putin
27:14will
27:14agree
27:15Putin
27:15on the
27:16other
27:16hand
27:16has
27:17gone
27:17maximalist
27:18he
27:18is
27:19saying
27:19please
27:20give me
27:20in
27:20writing
27:21that
27:21Ukraine
27:22will never
27:22join
27:23NATO
27:23Ukraine
27:24will never
27:24be a
27:25part
27:25of
27:25EU
27:25it
27:26will
27:26be
27:27within
27:27the
27:27Russian
27:27sphere
27:28of
27:28influence
27:28and
27:29the
27:29four
27:30areas
27:31we
27:32have
27:32origins
27:33we
27:33have
27:33amalgamated
27:34constitutionally
27:36the world
27:37will
27:37recognize
27:38them
27:38America
27:39will
27:39recognize
27:39them
27:40Trump
27:40is
27:41obviously
27:42cannot
27:42agree
27:43to this
27:43the world
27:44will not
27:44agree
27:44to this
27:45so there's
27:45an impasse
27:46there
27:46if there's
27:47an impasse
27:48there
27:48which
27:49what is
27:50the
27:50whom is
27:51he finding
27:52as the
27:52whipping
27:52boy
27:53yes
27:54it's
27:54India
27:54his
27:56anger
27:56is being
27:57directed
27:57against
27:58India
27:58when it
27:58should
27:58be
27:59with
27:59Putin
27:59against
28:00Putin
28:00so what
28:01is
28:01he
28:01with the
28:02Chinese
28:02he's
28:03not
28:03doing
28:03it
28:03he's
28:04he is
28:05on the
28:06verge
28:06at least
28:07that's
28:07what it
28:07appears
28:08on reaching
28:08some kind
28:09of a deal
28:09with the
28:10Chinese
28:10so the
28:11Chinese
28:11he's
28:12very
28:12very
28:12careful
28:13with
28:13but
28:14India
28:14is
28:15I'm
28:15sorry
28:16to say
28:16for him
28:16at the
28:17moment
28:17a soft
28:18target
28:18and he
28:19thinks
28:20we are
28:21a soft
28:21target
28:21until he
28:23sees
28:23the real
28:23and I
28:25sincerely
28:25hope
28:25the real
28:26face
28:27of India
28:28in the
28:28face
28:28of any
28:29situation
28:30like this
28:31you are
28:31absolutely
28:32right
28:32Gaurab
28:33that is
28:33why I
28:34said
28:34this is
28:34a time
28:35for
28:35national
28:36unity
28:36for the
28:37political
28:37class
28:38the
28:38government
28:39and the
28:39opposition
28:40to come
28:40together
28:41and to
28:41say
28:41we do
28:42not
28:43accept
28:44blackmail
28:45from
28:45anyone
28:46absolutely
28:49absolutely
28:50Craig
28:51Kafura
28:51prices in
28:52the US
28:53according to
28:54some reports
28:54that I was
28:55reading
28:55are already
28:56either
28:57increasing
28:58or will
28:59be increasing
28:59soon
29:00the companies
29:01like Nike
29:01and Adidas
29:02they say
29:03input costs
29:04going up
29:04their prices
29:05will go up
29:06coffee prices
29:07since the
29:08taxes on
29:09coffee from
29:10Brazil
29:10is going up
29:11they're saying
29:12coffee prices
29:12will go up
29:13is the
29:14American public
29:15will they be
29:17okay with it
29:17or with the
29:18MAGA crowd
29:19backing Trump
29:20he'll follow
29:21this truth
29:21all the way
29:22I think it depends
29:24on what part of
29:25the public
29:25you're looking at
29:26I mean there are
29:26some really
29:27committed MAGA
29:28ideologues out there
29:29who say they're
29:30willing to bear
29:31a lot of
29:32economic pain
29:32but I'm not
29:33sure how deep
29:34that goes
29:34and you're
29:35right we are
29:35starting to see
29:36prices rise
29:37inflation looks
29:38like it's been
29:39running about
29:393% a month
29:40for the last
29:41several months
29:41and we're
29:42starting to see
29:42an economic
29:43slowdown
29:43so you
29:44mentioned
29:44earlier
29:44things coming
29:45back from
29:45the 70s
29:46we might be
29:47in for another
29:47round of
29:48stagflation
29:48if this keeps
29:49up
29:49right we're
29:50imposing
29:50greater costs
29:51on ourselves
29:51through these
29:52international
29:52tariffs
29:53we're also
29:54imposing costs
29:55on ourselves
29:55through this
29:56these immigration
29:56crackdowns
29:57we're deporting
29:58parts of our
29:58workforce
29:58so we're
30:00hurting ourselves
30:00on both ends
30:01here in the
30:02United States
30:02now if that's
30:04going to have
30:04a real impact
30:05on political
30:06debates in the
30:06White House
30:07I think remains
30:08to be seen
30:08it will definitely
30:09have an impact
30:10on the midterm
30:10elections
30:11you're already
30:12seeing Democrats
30:12running really
30:13strongly in all
30:14of these sort
30:14of off cycle
30:15local state
30:16level races
30:17I would expect
30:18Democrats to be
30:18set up for a
30:19really strong
30:19midterm election
30:20and then maybe
30:21they'll see about
30:22taking back some
30:23of these trade
30:24policies right
30:24these are not
30:25inherent powers
30:27of the president
30:27these are
30:28delegated to
30:28the president
30:29by Congress
30:30Congress can
30:31take them back
30:31if they so
30:32choose
30:32okay you
30:34mentioned the
30:34Democrats and
30:35I have crystal
30:35call of the
30:38Democratic Party
30:38joining me on
30:40this special
30:40broadcast crystal
30:41call your
30:43appreciation Indians
30:44have traditionally
30:45been voters of
30:47the Democrats
30:48for the Democrats
30:49and you know
30:51we also saw
30:51that
30:52Trump
30:53Sarkar
30:54campaign because
30:54the hope
30:55was perhaps
30:56under Donald
30:58Trump or
30:58under Republicans
30:59the relationship
31:00between the two
31:01countries would
31:01even be stronger
31:02that clearly
31:04doesn't seem to
31:05be happening in
31:05Trump 2.0
31:06what's your
31:07appreciation of
31:08what Donald Trump
31:09is doing imposing
31:10an additional 25%
31:11tariff on India
31:12and threatening it
31:14could be raised
31:14even higher
31:15well this is
31:17exactly what I
31:18brought up in
31:19my campaign
31:20I think that
31:21there has
31:21always been a
31:22misperception
31:23amongst Indian
31:23Americans that
31:24Trump is
31:25pro-India
31:26pro-Indian
31:27Americans and
31:28that's clearly
31:29not the case
31:30and I think
31:32that you know
31:33India needs to
31:34understand that
31:35Trump has
31:36you know one
31:37agenda they're
31:37trying to
31:37counter Russia
31:38they don't
31:40Trump is not
31:41someone who
31:41understands context
31:42and nuance
31:43and geopolitics
31:45in my opinion
31:46and this is
31:48detrimental to
31:49the US-India
31:49relationship
31:50it's detrimental
31:50to the future
31:52of trade between
31:52these two nations
31:53I mean you're
31:54dealing with India
31:54the fastest growing
31:55economy in the
31:56world and
31:57frankly it's
31:58taken so much
31:58since the US-India
32:00nuclear deal
32:00to bring these
32:01countries closer
32:02together right
32:03the oldest and
32:04the largest
32:06democracies in
32:07the world
32:07and I think
32:08it's just tragic
32:09all the work
32:10that's been done
32:10from you know
32:11President Clinton
32:12from President
32:13Obama
32:14President Biden
32:15till date
32:16that's just
32:17being undermined
32:18by
32:18frankly an
32:19impulsive
32:20decision
32:20one that's
32:22illogical
32:22and one that
32:23will have
32:23ramifications
32:24you know for
32:25as long as
32:26this is imposed
32:26and especially
32:27if it goes
32:27up and
32:29and for
32:29what I mean
32:30this is just
32:30a threatening
32:31tactic
32:31that's what
32:32Trump does
32:32he uses
32:33these tactics
32:34you know
32:35to basically
32:36say to
32:37a signal
32:39India you
32:39know that
32:40they can't
32:40have any
32:41trade or
32:41any relations
32:41with Russia
32:42right which
32:43is which
32:43is impossible
32:44you'd be
32:44undoing
32:45years of
32:46relationship
32:46that has
32:48nothing to
32:48do with
32:49politics
32:49it has
32:50nothing to
32:50do with
32:50India being
32:51communist leaning
32:52and this
32:52has been
32:52the problem
32:53with the
32:55US-India
32:55relationship
32:55from the
32:56inception of
32:56India
32:57Nehru's
32:58non-alignment
32:58and our
32:59external affairs
33:00minister has
33:01tried to
33:01explain this
33:02because it's
33:03the Americans
33:03who are
33:04getting closer
33:04to Pakistan
33:05it's the
33:06Americans who
33:07are arming
33:07Pakistan
33:08that's one
33:09reason that
33:09India was
33:10forced to
33:10buy weapons
33:11from then
33:12Soviet Union
33:13and it goes
33:15on but
33:15Puneet Aluwalia
33:16respond to
33:17Crystal Call
33:17saying Donald
33:18Trump does
33:19not really
33:20understand the
33:21nuances of
33:22India-US
33:23relationship and
33:24all that
33:24investment made
33:25in the past
33:26quarter of a
33:27century 25
33:27long years
33:28plus
33:28is God
33:30forbid it
33:31may just be
33:31thrown out
33:32of the window
33:32well Crystal
33:34is not clear
33:36about Donald
33:37Trump's capability
33:38because he
33:39really reached
33:39out to various
33:40facets of
33:40different communities
33:41and got elected
33:42president but at
33:43the same time
33:44he was the
33:44first guy who
33:45brought peace
33:47in Middle
33:47East look at
33:47the Abraham
33:48Accord he was
33:49the first guy
33:49who reached
33:50out to North
33:50Korea so it's
33:51not that he's
33:52not he wants
33:53to use his
33:54personal relationship
33:54look at the
33:55dynamics between
33:56President Trump
33:57and Modi
33:58please don't
33:59discount his
34:00ability to reach
34:01out and work
34:02with world
34:03leaders the
34:04important thing
34:04is he is very
34:05business focused
34:06he looks at the
34:07bottom line at
34:08this point he
34:09wants to find a
34:09way to mitigate
34:10peace in Ukraine
34:12and Russia and
34:13he wants to find a
34:14way to starve
34:15Russia and its
34:16financial supporters
34:17same thing he's
34:18doing with Israel
34:19and in Iran
34:20and that's the
34:20other thing is
34:21that unfortunately
34:22or India does
34:24business with both
34:25Iran and Russia
34:26so there are
34:27more dynamics
34:27that meets the
34:28eye but please
34:29don't discount
34:29his ability to
34:32what Crystal
34:33said but more
34:34importantly as I
34:34said earlier and
34:35a lot of folks
34:37want to talk
34:37about there's
34:37still an
34:38important piece
34:39find a way to
34:41sharpen your
34:41pencils find a
34:42way to mitigate
34:42and if you think
34:43it's going to be a
34:44big headliner
34:45that will help to
34:46bring this
34:46relationship together
34:47but if you
34:48retaliate I can
34:49guarantee you it'll
34:50have a ripple
34:50effect and the
34:51numbers are going
34:51to go up and
34:53and then it'll be
34:53even far worse for
34:54us to climb back
34:55out or the
34:56Indians to climb
34:57back out and as
34:58a proud Indian
34:58American I feel
34:59it's very important
35:00that the the
35:02better sense
35:03prevails that's
35:04not negotiate as
35:05I said again don't
35:06negotiate all
35:06yourself out of a
35:07deal that's my
35:08two cents okay
35:09okay can I just
35:10add one thing to
35:11this just yes
35:13please which is
35:14that you know the
35:14United States one
35:15thing I really do
35:16regret is the
35:17unpredictability that
35:18this administration is
35:19showing on trade
35:20you can say it's
35:21justified to
35:22rebalance our
35:23trade I think
35:25what's really
35:25harmful is that
35:27the United States
35:27has always been a
35:28country of its
35:28word and I can
35:30tell you having
35:31lived around the
35:31world what that
35:32means and in this
35:33case for example
35:34there's a certain
35:35amount of whiplash
35:35I think that the
35:36Indian side is
35:37perceiving that's
35:38not irrational
35:39which is that for
35:40example encouraging
35:41India to be a new
35:42base for manufacturing
35:43away from China
35:44and then slapping
35:45down India for
35:46exporting iPhones
35:47or talking about
35:49reaching a trade
35:50deal but then in
35:51the next minute
35:51talking that there
35:53may be a 250%
35:54tariff placed on
35:55pharma would that
35:57be included in a
35:58trade deal or not
35:59our trade partners
36:00are also confused
36:01even with what was
36:02agreed to in some
36:04cases so I do think
36:05we need some clarity
36:06and certainty coming
36:08from the White House
36:09as well I don't I
36:10wouldn't put this all
36:11on India by any
36:13means
36:13no but I would think
36:15none of this should
36:16be in India
36:16I'd like to just
36:16respond as well
36:17yes please do before
36:19I bring in Siddharth
36:20Zarabi and
36:21Karishma but please
36:22do Crystal
36:23yeah I just want to
36:25highlight I mean I'm
36:26only going off the
36:26facts right
36:27August 7th tomorrow
36:29this 25% tariff is
36:30going to be placed on
36:31India so I mean
36:32regardless of
36:33whatever's happened in
36:34the past or whatever
36:35perceptions are I'm
36:36going off the basic
36:36fact I mean this is
36:37detrimental to the
36:38relation of these two
36:39countries and Catherine
36:40I appreciate your
36:41views I used to work
36:42for the South Asia
36:43division at CSIS and
36:45this has taken so much
36:46for these two countries
36:47to come together so
36:48you can't just make a
36:50power move like that
36:50because you're the US
36:51on not just India but
36:53so many countries around
36:54the world as a
36:55threatening tactic I
36:56mean that's not that's
36:57just not how our
36:58global independence and
36:59geopolitics and trade
37:01works and it's going to
37:02hurt Americans in the
37:04end of the day
37:04absolutely because as an
37:06Indian I would think
37:07how much can I really
37:08trust America if this is
37:10how a comprehensive
37:12strategic partnership
37:13a partner behaves with
37:15me when I want to be
37:16friends with you I want
37:18a good trade deal isn't
37:20it Siddharth in Prime
37:21Minister Narendra Modi
37:22was amongst the first
37:23of the block getting to
37:24the United States talking
37:26about a deal by fall five
37:28rounds have happened for
37:29the sixth round the
37:29Americans are to come to
37:30India on the 25th of
37:31August but before that
37:33this 50% and this threat
37:35of additional is this
37:36pressure tactics do a
37:38deal on my terms or the
37:39next round the tariffs
37:40should even be higher
37:41Gaurav you know Indian
37:43officials have been very
37:44tight-lipped and very
37:45calm and composed and
37:47have not over the past
37:49five six months done any
37:51planting of news of any
37:52kind yet I must now say
37:55and one can reveal this
37:57the US approach during the
38:00conversations left many of
38:03our negotiators confused
38:05they would be sitting in a
38:07room discussing something
38:08trying to explain their
38:10concerns but the US attitude
38:11was take it or leave it and
38:13you know people virtually
38:14leaving the room next day
38:15they see a tweet which goes
38:17in some other direction from
38:18the political head of the
38:20country the executive head of
38:21the country so it's not been
38:23easy talking to the US
38:25officials and by the way we've
38:27been circumspect talking about
38:30it go look at what the
38:31Japanese have said on record
38:33look at Switzerland look at so
38:35many other countries they don't
38:36even know who they are talking
38:38to and what the United States
38:40wants from a so-called partner
38:43country if we engage for so much
38:45time and if agriculture was such an
38:48issue why not do a piecemeal by
38:50piecemeal deal India repeatedly put
38:52on the table that we can do a
38:55early harvest kind of early
38:57bilateral trade fact by October
39:00November and we can keep talking
39:02about the rest over the remaining
39:05months yet you want all of it in
39:07one day that's not going to happen
39:09you cannot push around India like
39:11this and I think it's while there
39:13may be short-term pain certain
39:15sectors certain exports will get
39:17impacted but we have gone through
39:18this pain delivered by the United
39:21States in the past a few times and I
39:24don't think that's going to change
39:25so I strongly disagree with this
39:28with this feeling or this voice on
39:31our show and with all respect I say
39:33that we have to change and we have
39:35to make a deal sorry if it was left
39:37to me no deal is better than losing
39:40self-respect and your own standing
39:43you know that's the question I'd put
39:45to Ambassador Kaju if I may is no deal
39:48better than a bad deal you know India
39:52would want a bilateral trade agreement
39:54with the United States of America but
39:56it can't be US wins India loses and
39:59compromise on our red lines that
40:01clearly no government no prime
40:03minister can afford I think you're
40:05absolutely right Gaurav no prime
40:08minister in there no political leader
40:12can give up the interest of as we know
40:1650 percent of our seats there is a
40:19fundamental difference between the
40:21American economy and us yes we are
40:24growing at a very rapid pace but we have
40:29still vast grinding poverty and that is
40:34the first concern of any Indian political
40:37leader it has to be and that is
40:41something which I find that the president
40:45Trump just doesn't seem to understand
40:47point one point two I think the the year
40:52since 1947 and the India-American relationship
40:56as it has evolved and I for one favor a good
41:00relationship between us and the Americans I think
41:04all this should have I'm sorry to use the word
41:10taught the Americans that there is a certain
41:13resilience sir give me a moment Siddharth
41:15Zarabi is getting us the first reaction from
41:17government of India Siddharth take it away
41:19well the operative part it is extremely
41:22unfortunate that the US should choose to
41:24impose additional tariffs on India for
41:26actions that several other countries are also
41:28taking in their own national interest we
41:31reiterate that these actions are unfair
41:33unjustified and unreasonable India will take
41:37all actions necessary to protect national
41:39interest and the statement also says we have
41:42already made clear our position on these
41:45issues including the fact that our imports are
41:48for the energy security of 1.4 billion people
41:50this is a statement by the official spokesperson
41:53in the context and headline the United States
41:56has in recent days targeted India's oil imports
41:59from Russia so that's the reaction that we were
42:01talking about and it's such an unfortunate
42:03targeting of India Craig Kafura you know when
42:07you have a strategic partner you take the
42:10strategic partners concerns on board when
42:13you're working towards a deal all your
42:15conversations are behind the scenes and
42:18should remain so the moment they come out in
42:21public as broad headlines and when you have
42:23two very strong leaders the relationship is
42:27only likely especially on the aspect of trade
42:30go downhill well if it makes you feel any
42:33better you're not the only country that's
42:35getting treated this way I mean look at how
42:37Trump has treated Japan America's key
42:39ally in East Asia the South Koreans other
42:42key ally the entire European Union has been
42:45treated like this so this is just one in the
42:48pattern of the way that Trump deals with
42:50foreign countries and foreign trade I'm not
42:52surprised that your negotiators have been
42:54frustrated and confused because the U.S.
42:56approach to trade under Trump has always been
42:58frustrating and confusing and frankly I agree
43:01you do need to find and diversify other
43:03sources the good thing is you've got a long
43:06list of countries now that are looking for
43:07other markets the United States is giving
43:09them no reason to trust them for future trade
43:11negotiations so go talk to the Europeans go
43:13talk to the Japanese go talk to the South
43:15Koreans go talk to the Indonesians they've all
43:17got problems with the United States now they've
43:19all got markets and people and capital looking
43:21for places to go Trump is just pushing other
43:24countries away into each other's arms and
43:26frankly the biggest beneficiary of all of these
43:28trade fights is and is continuing to be China
43:32China is now absolutely why would Donald Trump
43:35not understand that why would Donald Trump not
43:38understand that is the big question the biggest
43:41beneficiary will ultimately end up being China but
43:45Ambassador Karju in your appreciation will this
43:48will this actually impact the overall India U.S.
43:53strategic partnership when it comes to security
43:56cooperation when it comes to our strategic
43:58partnership will all of that Catherine Hara in
44:01your view also be impacted you know this region
44:04you've served in India your appreciation will
44:06this impact the overall relationship well you know I
44:11can't see that it won't impact I've seen some rough
44:15times in the relationship so have you you know and
44:18it's distressing to see how fast it can come apart that
44:22being said I still think there's room for an off ramp even
44:25on this negotiation you know I suggested for example on
44:29dairy on GMOs that's another thing for some reason India
44:32seems to have trade barriers that really were set up as
44:36protectionist in my view by the EU there's no health
44:40risk to GMOs it's been decades now so I do think if if both
44:43sides really wanted an agreement we could get an
44:45agreement I think the bigger question is now that it's
44:48inflamed like this who steps back and say what the bigger
44:52picture is and what we have to gain not just China everyone
44:56always looks at the risk of China but the risk to the benefit
44:59of our overall relationship you know those people to people
45:02ties IT you know real coordination and innovation
45:07space health is an area that seems to have fallen off the agenda there's so
45:12much we can be talking about others in China
45:15no but the point is when you say who will backed out first but India has done
45:19nothing to aggravate the situation US wanted India to buy that oil you have
45:24you know Ambassador Garcetti is on record to say this buy oil from there
45:28refine it export it to the world that's exactly what India is doing so where is
45:33India wrong why is Donald Trump behaving this way with respect with respect India
45:39has been on the wrong side in my view of the Russia war for a while now and I do
45:44think if maybe there were officials who said buy oil I can remember our then
45:48defense secretary Austin saying by all means don't buy Russian oil so I think
45:52it's not where else do you get them why should that war be more important I mean
45:56that's not India's war we didn't start that fight we didn't start the fire why
46:01should the Indian taxpayer or the Indian middle class or the Indian poor suffer
46:05for that war between Russia and Ukraine yeah I can't get behind that kind of an
46:10argument I think you have to kind of look at who's the aggressor and who's not but
46:14we don't have to relitigate right now it's the US against India on trade is is my you
46:21know if I may but will it go on ma'am please complete your point go on ma'am yeah I
46:24mean I I don't think it's helpful to relitigate my own point is though that I can
46:29understand the whiplash now whereas before even with the first you know Biden
46:34administration saying you shouldn't buy Russian oil that did not detract from
46:39the overall relationship even with the UN so tell me this Catherine no Catherine
46:43Harda just tell me this India should not buy Russian oil but European Union should
46:47continue to buy Russian LNG and America should continue to buy uranium from from
46:52and chemicals and fertilizers from Russia and continue to fund that war I'm
46:58actually trying to say something in support of India's position on this but
47:01not that not buying the Russian oil but why the reversal and why directed only at
47:06India and I don't think it's helpful so I do agree with you on that even though I
47:11do not agree that India had no choice but to buy Russian oil or to vote as it did or
47:16not vote in the UN you know I I believe you've been that India has been on the
47:20wrong side of this issue but that's not an excuse I will say just one thing
47:25because I'm almost getting you know to the point where I'm being required to
47:30counter a little bit you know your trade negotiators are known to be tough
47:35negotiators and there are a lot of Washington negotiators who have a long
47:39history of negotiating I think it's time for you know flexibility on everyone's
47:44part I can see that it is possible to get an agreement what I'm more worried about is
47:49the backlash okay ambassador card you in your appreciation will this impact the
47:56overall relationship you know health care is something that Catherine Hara was
48:00was talking about strategic partnership military hardware if I were to go back
48:06once again to 1998 and where suspicions about United States were huge I'm not even
48:11going back to the Henry Kissinger Nixon era our entire seeking and see Harrier fleet
48:15was grounded because the Americans impose sanction sanctions on us and that
48:19adversely impacted India's defense preparedness many in the armed forces said
48:23never buy American military hardware especially critical military hardware sir
48:26are we going back to that times I think there are segments of industry in India
48:34and in the United States there are segments within the security sector in both
48:40countries who would favor the continuance of a strong relationship I think there is
48:47bipartisan support in the US Congress on a strong relationship but there is one
48:53aspect which is worrying and that is Gaurav and I would urge you to have a look at
49:01the US State Department statement which came after a shop does meeting on July 25th with the US Secretary of State
49:13Marco Rubio in that state the US expressed great appreciation yes for Pakistan imagine which was acting
49:26according according to them as an intermediary with Iran in continuing Congress American conversation
49:34sir give me a moment there's breaking news coming in we have the inside account of
49:38what's happening on India's strategy sources are telling us that the Prime Minister's office is to review the impact with the Ministry of External Affairs and with the Commerce Ministry government sources are telling India today energy imports
49:52imports including Russian oil will not be impacted there are no US sanctions on Russia so no change for India
50:04remember when sanctions were put on Iran and those were US sanctions India did not take oil from Iran there are no sanctions on Russia
50:13tariff seen as US protectionism and not strategic threat to India to respond and India that's what sources are telling India today so it's not strategic threat
50:25what does India say that India to respond very calmly India to protect trade and economic interest Siddharth that's India's approach what are your sources telling you
50:35you and what we are picking up from the official statement and my colleague Chetan Bhutani in business today what he's picking up and reporting it's clear that as of
50:47now there is no rollback on the continuing purchase of Russian food oil I think that's the headline that should be read in between all the print that we are seeing on
50:59this there is no walking back on that so if President Trump feels that he's going to ignite a trade war with India I don't think we are going to either speak like the Chinese
51:11or behave like the Brazilians it's very clear that this penalty imposed specifically on Russian crude oil has had a response which says that Russian crude imports into India will continue
51:24So, there is a big reaction that's coming in from the leader of opposition in Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi has reacted Rahul Gandhi also said imposition of 50% of tariff is bullying tactics
51:36The Prime Minister should not let down India's national interest India should not buckle under US pressure Karishma that's a strong reaction that comes in from the leader of opposition
51:47which in turn Karishma would actually embolden the government stance this is India virtually speaking in one voice
51:54Absolutely Gaurav, in fact it has been for a while with Siddharth who is also reiterating that India has taken a very calm and composed way out
52:03let's not forget that the whole theatrics of how a very classic Trump tariff move has been seen like a deja vu back in 2018 they had done similarly with China back in 2020 around 2023 before in the new election era they had done this with EU and then they had to roll back all the tariffs and now it's India so it's a very classic move
52:26they've done this with China they've done this with EU where they punish and then they offer you a deal on the negotiation table
52:33So is that the template? Is that what will happen? We'll be tracking that story very very closely
52:39To all my very well respected guests for joining me on this special broadcast many thanks
52:45Indications from India India does not buckle under pressure
52:50We'll track that story very closely
52:52Thank you very closely
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