- 2 days ago
'In Washington, there is a desire to continue to work with India,' says South Asia analyst, Michael Kugelman, on Indo-Russia Summit. He said, 'This Summit was the latest reminder to the West that Russia cannot be isolated. India and China - two of the most critical global players are closed to Russia... This is not going to change the close partnership of India with the countries in the West... One of the big priorities for India's foreign policy is to get a trade deal with the EU. Even in the US, I think that in Washington there is a desire to continue to work with India, despite everything that's going on, and this visit by Putin...'
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00:00It's, of course, the first time that Putin has come to India in four years.
00:05It's the first time since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, is that it comes at what I would describe as a precarious moment in the sense that India is under significant levels of pressure from the West, particularly the U.S.
00:17Prime Minister Modi sent a very strong signal to some key audiences in the West, including in Washington.
00:22The joint statement that came out of the summit was indeed quite expansive, which is not a surprise.
00:26It highlighted all types of areas of cooperation, from military cooperation to indeed energy.
00:33Bottom line, the way I see it, India, I don't think, India certainly welcomed this message, but I don't think it was a surprise from it.
00:40Whereas in the U.S. and the West, also no surprise.
00:43I think that it would certainly intensify the unhappiness that you have in the West, just how much Russia and India have been willing to work together when it comes to energy cooperations.
00:55And for President Trump at a moment when he badly wants Putin to buy into this peace process, Prime Minister Modi is delivering the very message that President Trump would want delivered.
01:05Prime Minister Modi taking advantage of Putin being in India to try to bolster the relationship and try to identify new ways to work more with Russia.
01:12I just want to start straight by asking you that President Putin has concluded a successful visit to India where he received a warm welcome and two countries have signed various agreements, including on health and maritime cooperation.
01:32A strategic economic roadmap was also signed.
01:35What is your first reaction to it?
01:38How do you view this visit?
01:39It was a successful visit, and I would argue that it was one of the most important summits between the two leaders in quite some time for two main reasons.
01:50One, it's, of course, the first time that Putin has come to India in four years.
01:55It's the first time since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
01:58So the fact that it had been so long meant that it was very important to have a successful summit so that the two leaders could reassert the importance and strength of this very special relationship.
02:09The second reason why it was such an important visit is that it comes at what I would describe as a precarious moment in the sense that India is under significant levels of pressure from the West, particularly the U.S., to reduce its energy imports from Russia.
02:24And indeed, it has reduced some of those imports in recent weeks.
02:27I think that it was important for these two leaders to show that even in the face of a lot of pressure from the West, you know, this is a relationship that will endure.
02:35And that's why I think it's very important that Prime Minister Modi sent a very strong signal to some key audiences in the West, including in Washington, when he went to the airport himself to meet President Putin.
02:47This sort of is outside of protocol.
02:49It's not a typical thing to be done.
02:50But the fact that he did that, I think, was a very strong gesture that showed his own personal, you know, it reflected his personal views of President Putin.
03:02And it also, I think, reflected just how strong the relationship is between India and Russia.
03:08Michael, I just want to draw your attention to the outcome of this particular visit.
03:12I mean, the joint statement that came out of the summit was indeed quite expansive, which is not a surprise.
03:39It's highlighted all types of areas of cooperation, from military cooperation to indeed energy, to many other aspects of commercial collaborations, as well as infrastructure, you know, cultural cooperation.
03:52There was a lot there, which is what one would expect.
03:55You know, on the energy side, yes.
03:58I mean, the joint statement described energy as a significant pillar of the relationship.
04:03But I would argue that this is where one of the biggest challenges lies in the relationship.
04:07Just because, you know, we've seen that because of new Western sanctions on Russia and because of India's desire to get a trade deal with the U.S., it has been willing to cut back, at least temporarily, its energy imports from Russia.
04:20And that, I think, at least in the immediate term, will affect the energy relationship.
04:24That might be why you had particularly strong language from President Putin on the energy front, in which he essentially ensured uninterrupted supply of fuel to India, which I think was really meant to be a defiant message to the West.
04:39I do think that energy will continue to be a big part of the relationship, but I think it's also important that the two countries look for other aspects of commercial ties to focus on.
04:50And I think we've seen that, a lot of discussion in the summit about agriculture, about pharmaceuticals, about a lot.
04:56So, you know, I think that it might be time to look at how to refashion the relationship in a way that the commercial relationship can grow even beyond the energy cooperation, which I think has long defined the non-security aspects of cooperation between India and Russia.
05:16You're muted.
05:16Michael, though, you have mentioned about the statement by President Putin on energy front.
05:26I just also want to highlight, I just want to ask a particular question about this.
05:30The statement was that Russia is ready to continue uninterrupted shipments of oil.
05:37This statement is coming in the backdrop of Western pressure on India to stop buying Russian oil.
05:42Was this a message just to the West or to India also that we are ready?
05:46You just tell us we are ready to supply oil.
05:50And if this was a message to the West, how are we expecting them to take?
05:56How is the U.S. expected to react from out of this?
06:00I mean, I think that Putin's message was meant for both audiences, the Western audience as well as India.
06:07But I don't think it's a surprising message.
06:09And I don't think either the Indian or the U.S. or Western side would be surprised.
06:14I mean, this is essentially President Putin reiterating a longstanding policy, right?
06:18And that's that Russia has been willing to provide cheap oil, cheap energy to India for quite some time.
06:25It is significant in the sense that it comes at a moment when I would argue that India is facing perhaps unprecedented levels of pressure from the West to scale back.
06:33And the fact that you have new sanctions on several key Russian energy firms that went into effect just a few weeks ago, you know, that means it's a bit of a new ballgame, so to speak.
06:44And that India really has to be very careful about how it engages with Russia on energy cooperation, at least for the immediate term.
06:52And keeping in mind here that, you know, this is all because of the war in Ukraine, right?
06:56I mean, if there were not a war in Ukraine, if President Putin were to agree to the peace process that President Trump badly wants him to buy into, then we would not be talking about all this pressure coming from the West.
07:08Certainly not from Trump, who I would argue actually has a fairly moderate view of Russia.
07:13He's professed his admiration for Putin in the past.
07:17So this is something that will be a challenge for India only so long as the war continues.
07:22Unfortunately, the war could continue for some time.
07:24But bottom line, the way I see it, you know, India, I don't think India certainly welcomed this message, but I don't think it was surprised from it.
07:31Whereas in the U.S. and the West, also no surprise.
07:34I think that it would certainly intensify the unhappiness that you have in the West about just how much Russia and India have been willing to work together when it comes to energy cooperations.
07:49Michael, you mentioned about the Ukraine war.
07:51I just want to draw your attention to what PM Modi said during the meetings.
07:55He said, India is not neutral and it is on the side of peace.
08:01Well, time and again, we have been accused of being a fence sitter.
08:04How do you take this message by PM Modi and how do you take it?
08:11Prime Minister Modi and President Trump essentially think the same way when it comes to the war.
08:16They both want it to end.
08:17I mean, that's that's the simple position.
08:19And I would argue I've argued before that Prime Minister Modi has gone further than any other non-Western leader in expressing his opposition to the war and calling for it, including publicly,
08:30including while sitting right next to Putin, calling for the war to end.
08:33And this is a message that, you know, he surely reiterated.
08:37This is not an era of war.
08:38I'm sure he reiterated this at the summit.
08:40And, you know, I think that I've been asked a lot, how does Washington look at the summit?
08:44Maybe you're going to ask me that question later.
08:47And I think that one way that Washington could look at the summit is that it's actually very helpful for President Trump.
08:51At a moment when he badly wants Putin to buy into this peace process, you know, Prime Minister Modi is delivering the very message that President Trump would want delivered in the sense that we don't support war.
09:03This is not an era of war.
09:05But, you know, I think that, unfortunately, another way that Washington could look at this summit is that, well, this is a case of Prime Minister Modi taking advantage of Putin being in India to try to bolster the relationship and try to identify new ways to work more with Russia.
09:20The latter is probably the way that the visit was perceived in Washington.
09:25But, no, I think that it's very important that these comments by the Prime Minister were made.
09:29And, you know, I suspect that, you know, this might have been one of the few awkward moments during what was probably otherwise a very warm, supportive conversation.
09:37And, you know, Putin knows Modi's view on the war.
09:40I'm sure he knew that Modi was going to bring it up.
09:42But I think it's very important that the Prime Minister brought this up just to, you know, to amplify, particularly in the face of skeptics in the West, that, you know, India does not support this war.
09:52It's not trying to bankroll the war with oil imports from Russia.
09:56You know, it's importing oil because it's, you know, it's something that's cheap.
10:01And, you know, this is something that the U.S. has previously encouraged before the Trump administration was in power.
10:05So it's a complex issue for sure.
10:08But I think that it's good and it's very important that the Prime Minister made this comment.
10:14And we all can agree that this war needs to end.
10:16It's a terrible war.
10:17It never should have started.
10:18And I think it's important that Prime Minister Modi was sending that message to Putin.
10:24Michael, I just want to highlight one point as well that experts here in Delhi and as well as some in U.S.
10:30believe that U.S. tariff, which was supposed to deter India from buying Russian oil,
10:35have nudged the two countries closer to each other.
10:41Do you also believe that?
10:42And what is the future of the ties between India and Russia?
10:48You know, I would argue that it is a bit of a challenging moment for the India-Russia relationship.
10:54I mean, mainly because of all the pressure coming from the West and the fact that India has now,
10:58at least for now, reduced its energy imports from Russia,
11:03which is going to affect one of the pillars of the partnership.
11:06And I think that one could also look at the security aspects of cooperation,
11:11where we've seen some delays in getting Russian military equipment to India.
11:16And I think that the war in Ukraine makes things even more complicated,
11:19because I think that one cannot ensure that these weapon shipments will make it to India.
11:25And energy and arms have really been two of the key aspects of cooperation between the two.
11:39I think that, you know, this is a relationship that will endure.
11:42It has to endure.
11:43There's no question it's going to endure.
11:44But it might need to identify some new areas of focus that might need to reassess how current aspects of cooperation are carried out.
11:55You know, I think that one could talk about looking for different areas of commercial cooperation to focus on.
11:59And, you know, I think that India certainly wants to look at ways to to increase exports to Russia to achieve a better trade balance with Russia.
12:06There was a lot of discussion at the summit about agriculture, about pharmaceuticals and other things.
12:11That's important.
12:12I think that the cultural the cultural cooperation aspect of this relationship is critical.
12:16Both both publics have a lot of love for for the other side.
12:21So I think that that would be good.
12:22The joint statement did emphasize cultural cooperation.
12:25So cultural connects are important to look at.
12:27And I think, you know, this is a relationship that could also benefit from the two countries partnering in certain geographies.
12:34The joint statement talked about Arctic cooperation, which is great.
12:37But one thing that I've argued is that Central Asia could be a place where these two countries can look to work more more closely together.
12:43India has been trying to increase its access to Central Asia.
12:47It's been trying to build up ties with Central Asia for geographic reasons.
12:50It's not that easy to do.
12:52I think Russia can be helpful because of its own influence in that region.
12:55And of course, you know, China has its own influence in Central Asia.
12:59Pakistan has been trying to to to increase its own access to Central Asia.
13:04So I think that India working with Russia, its good friend Russia, could perhaps help advance India's goals in that region.
13:12So that's one other thing that I would that I would highlight.
13:16Michael, I just want to you just mentioned about how is it being viewed in the US and might be viewed in the US.
13:23I just want to ask you what is expected from them now?
13:25Because earlier we saw West was very uncomfortable with this visit.
13:31How are they going to react now?
13:33And what does it say about the relationship between West and India, particularly US if we talk about US and India?
13:40So, you know, I'm in New Delhi now.
13:42I've been here the last few days and I've seen, you know, firsthand just how special this relationship is between India and Russia.
13:49And also the personal relationship between the two leaders and there have been signs all over the city with Putin's likeness welcoming him and so on.
13:57And, you know, I think that some in the West have sought to promote the isolation of Russia.
14:05It was never a goal that was going to work.
14:07Russia is much too powerful a global player for that to happen.
14:09And we've seen, you know, by, you know, in recent years, Russia was able to convene a large number of countries to come to Russia for a BRIC summit.
14:19You know, Russia has friends.
14:20It has quite a few friends in the global south, in the Middle East, of course, in India.
14:24And, you know, I think that if nothing else, this was this summit was the latest reminder to the West that Russia cannot be isolated.
14:32And, you know, it can count, you know, two of the most critical global players are close to Russia.
14:38India and, of course, to the consternation of India, China has also become increasingly close to Russia since the war in Ukraine.
14:47I think that, you know, after the summit, it'll all come back to what I said before, that, you know, the West could look at this summit as something that could be seen as a way to move the needle forward with the peace process.
14:59If Modi was able to deliver an important message to Putin about needing to end the war, but at the same time, if the West goes in the other direction and looks at this as another case of India trying to strengthen Russia and to try to bolster Russia by, you know, by offering more support and cooperation, you know, that's not going to work out very well in terms of how the West perceives what India is doing.
15:22But at the end of the day, you know, this is not going to change India's close partnerships with countries in the West.
15:29You know, I don't think that's going to be the case at all.
15:31And, you know, one of the big priorities, of course, moving forward for India's foreign policy is to get a trade deal with the EU.
15:36And, of course, the Europeans have been very critical of Putin and his war in Ukraine and are unhappy with India's relationship with Russia.
15:45But, you know, the Europeans want to work with India. That's very clear.
15:49And even in the U.S., you know, for all we can talk about the tensions in U.S.-India relations, we've discussed these before.
15:55You know, I think that in Washington, there is a desire to continue to work with India despite everything that's going on and despite this visit by Putin.
16:03You mentioned that there is a desire in Washington to work with India.
16:09We are negotiating a trade deal with the U.S.
16:11And do you think the current visit will have any impact or the things are going the way they are going right now?
16:18Yeah, I mean, we've been hearing for so long that the two sides are close to a deal, but there has not been an announcement of the deal,
16:24which could be seen as a good thing, that they must be really close or that it might be a bad thing.
16:28Why hasn't there been a deal if they've been saying it's close for so long?
16:31So I don't think this visit will impact the trade talks.
16:35And I would argue that India has already done something very significant to get it closer to the finish line on the trade talks,
16:40in that it has reduced its Russian oil imports and it's signed a recent gas deal with the U.S.
16:46I think that'll really help move the needle forward.
16:48I think it's going to come down to other issues that are unrelated to Russia.
16:52You know, these issues we've been hearing about for some time.
16:55Will India open up some of its more politically sensitive sectors to U.S. access, like agriculture, you know, tariffs?
17:02You know, that's still something that's going to be under discussion.
17:04So I think that getting to the finish line on a deal will depend on on factors and concessions that that don't have much to do with Russia,
17:11because on the Russia front, I think India has done what it has to do.
17:14So it's just a matter of getting other issues done.
17:16So, I think that's a matter of getting other issues done.
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