- 6 months ago
In this year-end Global Roundtable, experts discuss the shifting global order involving the US, China, and Russia, and ongoing peace efforts in the Middle East and much more.
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00:00Donald Trump plays the disruptor US-China trues after bruising trade war Trump hails the G2
00:15Vladimir Putin no more a pariah for the US
00:22US throws old allies under the bus
00:28Trump pushes Ukraine peace plan Zelensky out of options
00:36Israel and US bomb Iran's nuke plants Trump brokers Gaza peace plan
00:48India bombs Pakistan after Pehlgaam terror attack
00:56Modi redraws foreign policy amidst Trump's tariffs
01:022025 new world order is born
01:10What will 2026 be like
01:18Hello and welcome to the year-end global roundtable
01:262025 has been a landmark year a quarter of the 21st century is gone and this one year
01:34has seen the emergence of a possible new world order a world order that everyone is still struggling to
01:42fathom when it comes to 2025 and global events
01:46this has been a year like no other wars bombings terror
01:50The world and indeed our own neighborhood here has seen it all and we aren't even done
01:58yet in these uncertain and unsettled times we will focus on the global roundtable on all that's happened in the world
02:06and what's likely to happen next
02:08And we'll be joined by a special panel of guests from India and across the world
02:14My first guest is the redoubtable Dr. Shashi Tharoor
02:18Multiple Congress MP as well as the chairperson of the Standing Committee on External Affairs
02:24Someone who served for years with distinction at the UN
02:28Appreciate your joining us Dr. Tharoor and Merry Christmas
02:32Wanted to ask you right at the very outset Dr. Tharoor
02:36Do you believe if I rewind to 2025 this should be seen as the year of Donald Trump
02:43A year when one man sitting in the White House with his often whimsical unpredictable actions
02:49has unsettled the world order like never before? Would I be right in saying that?
02:55I'm afraid you're probably right
02:57I mean Trumpian turbulence is something that I think has defined
03:01defined global developments in this entire year
03:05and you can't get away from that
03:07I mean he did come to office officially on the 20th of January
03:11and the year hasn't hasn't got anything like what anyone would have predicted up to the 19th
03:17and so with all the inflection points that we've seen
03:21including of course the drama of the transformation of US policies across the board
03:29tariffs for example
03:31the impact on India with its 50% tariffs has really been quite significant
03:37the reorientation of America's perception on the world
03:42the G2 meeting in Busan with President Xi and the Europeans wondering where exactly they stand
03:48the dramatic announcement of a peace in Gaza and the the fit for progress towards one in Ukraine
03:54Mr. Trump has made his mark on all of these
03:58so it's very difficult to get away with I think you know that old time magazine man of the year kind of thing
04:04it would very clearly have to be Mr. Trump this year
04:06ah so Shashi Tharoor saying Donald Trump man of the year for time
04:10if there was a time magazine man of the year this year
04:13but you know as you rightly said Donald Trump continues to occupy the international headlines
04:19but also the national ones because from an Indian perspective Dr. Tharoor
04:23the tariff wars have disrupted India's economy
04:28we've also seen Donald Trump claim credit for a cease fire repeatedly between India and Pakistan
04:34after Operation Sindhu we've seen him cozy up to General Asim Munir and the Pakistani military leadership
04:40so how should New Delhi see Donald Trump as a disrupter
04:44as someone who's disrupted a stable India US relationship
04:48someone unpredictable who we misread
04:51someone unpredictable not just for India but for the entire world
04:55well I think I think both are true right
04:59that unpredictability involves a certain amount of disruption
05:02again even the disruptions we don't know how long they will last
05:06is field marshal Munir the flavor of the month
05:09or is he going to be close to Mr. Trump throughout the Trump administration 2.0
05:15I would be more likely to think the former is credible than the latter
05:19the latter because Mr. Trump is known for his enthusiasms
05:23the romance with Mr. Musk didn't last last the year
05:27and I think you're going to find similar sorts of things on the global stage as well
05:32we've seen for example that it's useful at the moment for the US to talk to Pakistan
05:39because they want Pakistani soldiers as peacekeepers in Gaza
05:43and that's one of the things that as long as that prospect is there
05:47they're going to be making sort of nicey-nicey with General Munir
05:51what stand the Pakistanis finally take
05:54which will also have implications domestically for Pakistan
05:58also will need to be looked at
06:00what happens if there are Pakistani soldiers on the ground
06:03not wearing UN blue by the way because it's not a UN force
06:06but an international force answerable to a board of peace run by Tony Blair and Mr. Trump
06:13in that particular context what happens if say Hamas violates the peace
06:18are Pakistani soldiers going to be expected to fire on Palestinians
06:21and if so how will that play back in Pakistan
06:23I mean there are various questions
06:25so I think it's premature to think that there is a complete realignment at the moment
06:31but for the moment the Pakistanis have done well
06:34they have managed to persuade Mr. Trump that they're the good guys in all of this
06:38and indeed you're right Mr. Trump seems to have undone a quarter of centuries
06:43strategic realignment towards India
06:45but even on the latter I would say the fundamentals go beyond a few tweets on truth social
06:52and the fundamentals are still pretty solid for us
06:55I think it's only if every single assumption underpinning that strategic reorientation changed
07:02in the course of the next few months that we could really say
07:05well the American relationship is gone
07:07what it's shown us is that you can't rely on it as a bedrock
07:11that Mr. Trump's behavior has undoubtedly shown us
07:14but there are still lots of convergences, many overlapping interests, very few areas of disagreement
07:22and at the same time the significant presence of an Indian diaspora in the States
07:27which too has its own value in the people to people level
07:31plus of course America still are the biggest investors
07:34American businesses are still the biggest investors in India
07:37and more investments are coming
07:38we saw big announcements from Google and Microsoft
07:41so I would say look there are still lots of things keeping India and America close to each other
07:46despite Mr. Trump
07:48you know I want to for a moment turn to the neighborhood
07:51not just Pakistan Dr. Tharoor
07:53because you know it's been turbulent
07:56a neighborhood
07:57yes we saw what Pakistan sponsored terror did in Pahalgam in April
08:02a war-like situation erupting over Operation Sindhu
08:05do you fear more of that is one of the concerns
08:10should we be concerned that someone that Pakistan is being run at the moment
08:15by someone like General Asim Munir
08:18could we well see a Pahalgam part 2
08:20are we should be worried that Pakistan is once again on a very slippery slope at the moment
08:26towards some kind of anti-India Islamic radicalism
08:30I wouldn't say worried but I'd say we have to be prepared
08:34I mean Pakistan is a very very you know it's a problematic state at various levels
08:40it is a nominally civilian government that has been created by the military and is dominated by the military
08:47so the military's agenda will always be outsized in terms of what happens in terms of the policy choices there
08:55secondly it is economically fragile
08:57it's had a lot of money coming in from various international and western donors
09:04and that may help give it a lifeline for a while
09:07but economic fragility often leads to military adventurism
09:11we've learned this in the past with the Pakistanis
09:14and so we have to be very much prepared
09:17I would say that the uneasy economic stabilization of Pakistan is currently in our interest
09:24but at the same time there is undoubtedly the sort of hard-nosed military posturing that the Pakistanis are doing
09:33because they managed to persuade themselves they won the engagements in Operation Sindur
09:39and they have established a new army rocket force command
09:43after the barrage of drones and rockets and missiles they sent us
09:48and they're pursuing hypersonic technologies
09:51their new doctrine is something called asymmetric deterrence
09:55all of this is not something we can likely ignore
09:59GDP growth 2.7% in Pakistan as opposed to about 7% 7.2% for us
10:06maybe more depending on how it all works out
10:09but we have to be very conscious that they're moving into our patches
10:18when it comes to export lead growth and textiles and agricultural goods
10:22and of course they also have minerals
10:25and they've offered space to the Americans for that
10:28they've also more or less handed over their entire cryptocurrency business
10:31to a company headed by Mr. Witkoff and the two Trump sons
10:36so all of this gives Pakistan at least the illusion
10:40that they are in good with the West
10:43and therefore they can perhaps on the Saudi deal as well
10:46I should have mentioned that
10:47plus the continuing patron of China
10:50shores them up at various levels
10:52and they might well be turning to us and say
10:54hey, you know, we'll do what we like
10:57and you won't be able to retaliate
10:59because we've got all these boys in our corner
11:02that kind of thing is something we need to be watchful about
11:06Right
11:07You know, but it's not just Pakistan, Dr. Tharu
11:10the rest of the neighbourhood
11:11the toppling of a government in Nepal through street protests
11:14we are seeing rising anti-India sentiments
11:17in an increasingly unstable Bangladesh
11:20Bangladesh because we should particularly worry us surely
11:23because we've had a relatively stable relationship until now
11:26now we are seeing what's happening in Dhaka
11:29should that worry us now that it's now
11:31Bangladesh is a new front which is completely unsettled?
11:38Well, obviously a peaceful stable and calm Bangladesh is of great importance to us
11:43because otherwise it becomes in that notorious phrase
11:46India's soft underbelly
11:48and we know that Pakistan in the past
11:50the ISI has been fishing in troubled waters
11:53through that soft underbelly
11:55and there's also been a problem of militants in the North East
11:58seeking refuge and obtaining it
12:01obtaining safe haven in Bangladesh
12:03and then crossing over, wreaking havoc and coming back again
12:07now we obviously have fenced about 80% of the border with Bangladesh now
12:11but there are still about 20% through which they can get through
12:14and that's not a small matter
12:17there is a real concern about the way in which the student leader's provocative rhetoric
12:24has crossed all bounds
12:26with some openly threatening to sever our Seven Sisters Northeastern states
12:32from the rest of the country
12:33and obviously openly talking about providing refuge to separatist elements
12:40all of that, most unfortunate
12:42and it's coupled with the fact that the Islamist forces
12:45the Jamaat-e-Islami in particular
12:47have added a layer of communal anxiety to all of this
12:51then we've got the Sheikh Hasina problem with
12:54Dhaka's demand for her extradition to face a death sentence
12:58that's going to be something very difficult for India to do
13:01and I think India won't do it probably
13:04though I don't want to prefigure what the government is doing
13:06the government says they're studying all the legal implications
13:09they're studying the treaty, their obligations
13:12as well as the exceptions that have been written into the treaty
13:16and they'll take a decision when they judge it suitable
13:19but I cannot imagine them doing an extradition in the midst of the current chaos
13:24and protests engulfing diplomatic establishments in both countries and so on
13:29but also don't forget, Radhi, Bangladesh is grappling with their own problems
13:33they have energy shortages, they have inflationary pressures
13:36they have declining investor confidence, the FDI not coming in
13:40we have offered them plans for regional connectivity
13:43through ports, rail and energy grids
13:45which will actually help Bangladesh
13:47but that depends heavily on stability in Bangladesh
13:49so if I were a Bangladeshi I'd say look
13:52we really are going through the economic tough times
13:56that's perhaps unavoidable
13:58we need India to help stabilize this
14:00why are we making enemies of them?
14:01but unfortunately they're going the other way
14:03they're talking about defense pacts with the Pakistanis
14:06and they are really at this point
14:09really seeming to want to give the impression that
14:12that India is their enemy
14:15and this kind of narrative will obviously only appeal to the Gen Z of Dhaka
14:21who didn't live through the liberation war
14:23but they are probably now numerically much more significant
14:26than those who do remember India as a friend and a protector
14:30so it's not going to be easy, Rajdeep, that entire relationship
14:34I take your point but it brings me to another neighbour
14:38with whom we've shared a rather uneasy relationship
14:41but a large border
14:43some would call it the elephant in the room
14:45the Chinese factor
14:47you spoke earlier about G2
14:48about US and China in some way holding a summit coming together
14:52how worried should we be about growing Chinese influence
14:55that we are seeing in 2025
14:57not just in the neighbourhood but as I said across South Asia
15:01but across the world India seems keen to revive that relationship with China
15:05can we ever really trust Beijing
15:07given the fact that even during Operation Sindur
15:09every indication is the military of Pakistan
15:12was fused almost with the Chinese
15:14is China the elephant in the room still, Dr. Tharoor?
15:19Well, we are the elephant, they are the dragon in the room
15:22but as a dragon they do breathe fire of it, Rajdeep
15:25and what worries me about that is that
15:27is that with Pakistan and Operation Sindur
15:30you know that it's widely reported that they were
15:33it was real-time operation intelligence being relayed
15:36from Chinese satellites hovering over India
15:39and over Indian positions to the Pakistanis
15:4281% of Pakistan's weaponry, planes, missiles
15:45come from China
15:46and their cooperation of the military and intelligence levels
15:51is very, very high
15:52so I think to talk about a rapprochement with China
15:55overlooks that, overlooks the fact that the single largest project
16:00in the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative
16:02is the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor
16:05which is something that China considers to be in its own interest
16:08not just in helping out Pakistan
16:10so given all of that
16:12I have to say, Razeeb, that I would be
16:14and not just me, I think large sections of India's foreign policy establishment
16:18would be deeply wary of giving any serious consideration
16:24to a complete reorientation towards China
16:27because we boil down to a capitulation
16:29China is sitting on our frontiers and nibbling away at our territory
16:33China is imposing non-tariff barriers in our exports
16:36China is trying to encroach on our sovereign autonomy in all sorts of domains
16:41China still claims Arunachal Pradesh
16:44How do you go around talking about surrendering to China in these circumstances?
16:49No Indian with self-respect will do that, as far as I'm concerned
16:54But you know, Dr. Tharoor,
16:562025 only seems to have confirmed that the world is multipolar
17:01and as a result also seems far more embattled than ever before
17:05there's no end to the war between Russia and Ukraine as of now
17:08the Middle East remained tense through the year
17:11we saw that Iran-Israel conflict play out
17:14and it appears that maintaining global peace is becoming more and more difficult
17:17how does one manage conflicts
17:20and who's for example is going to reign in a Vladimir Putin
17:23who's going to reign in a Netanyahu
17:25these strongmen leaders
17:27even the United Nations of which you were once a distinguished member
17:30several years ago seems to completely powerless
17:32Well, Radhim, the United Nations can really only be effective
17:39when member states who make it up
17:41don't forget it's an organization of member states
17:43when they agree
17:44and when they agree the UN works miracles
17:46which is why it is such an impressive collection of Nobel Peace Prizes in its cabinet
17:51it's when the member states, the powerful ones in particular
17:55the top five in the world, the so-called permanent members of the Security Council
17:59when they are divided, the UN can't be expected to deliver results in the peace and security domain
18:04it continues to be a hugely important play on all sorts of socio-economic issues
18:09setting the agenda on everything from environment to climate change, human rights and so on
18:13but on peace and security, I think we'll have to see the UN taking a back seat
18:18Dr. Tharoor, that's the question, who's going to reign in, I repeat, the Netanyahu's of the world
18:23the Putins of the world, thousands of lives lost this year in Gaza
18:27who's going to reign in Vladimir Putin, thousands of lives lost in the Russia-Ukraine war
18:32that's the question I raise
18:35Look, I think there's no doubt that the tectonic plates in the world are shifting
18:40and therefore we are going to see a period of turbulence
18:43you know, we're used to describing the world like a portrait gallery
18:47where you go from one to the other and you understand and describe each portrait
18:51instead it's more like a wall mosaic
18:54jagged edges poking everywhere
18:56and you're quite right, no one able to pull them all together into a coherent pattern
19:01so let me just say that, you know, who's going to reign in anybody isn't the right question
19:06the question is how do we manage those who can't be reined in
19:09the Europeans and the West are trying to bring about a peace in Ukraine
19:14but there is a big gap between America, which I think wants some compromises on the part of Ukraine
19:20and the Europeans who are urging the Ukrainians not to compromise
19:24and Russia of course says, look, we're winning the war anyway, we stick to it long enough
19:28why should we agree on a compromise that involves anything giving up on our part
19:33and that process is not looking very promising
19:36conversely, though Gaza, you're right, witness some horrendous atrocities
19:41a sort of peace is raining right now in the region
19:44and therefore perhaps it won't need raining in
19:46if Mr. Trump can get those Muslim troops on the ground in that region
19:51and bring about and uphold some sort of peace and do some rebuilding
19:56you might actually see some good news happening
19:58I know many people would scoff in disbelief because there's no sign of that
20:02but it could still happen and we actually have an agreed peace formula that people are trying to implement
20:07as far as our own neighborhood is concerned
20:09yes, the Chinese are giving us trouble
20:11but the Chinese don't really want to go to war
20:13the Pakistanis are a bit more of a problem
20:17not because they will leap into a war that also doesn't suit them
20:20but because they could feel they can use terrorism with impunity
20:24knowing that India is aware that the sort of odds have changed in a military conflict
20:31and therefore we have to be very much on our guard against new terrorist attacks in Pakistan
20:35as far as the rest of the neighborhood was concerned
20:38it's an ongoing daily management challenge
20:41it's Bangladesh, it's Pakistan, it's Sri Lanka, it's Nepal, it's the Maldives
20:46you know, we've got, Bhutan is the only completely peaceful and tranquil place in our immediate periphery
20:52but I think we can actually, with Sri Lanka we've transformed the relationship into one of great
20:58I think Bonhomie and we've helped Sri Lanka through its leading troubles
21:03Maldives again, we're changing the narrative there
21:05so I don't think it's all unrelieved gloom, sorry Raj
21:08no, no, you're saying it's not gloom only, but I want to ask you the big question
21:12has Indian foreign policy under Prime Minister Modi got it right or wrong in this unsettled world?
21:17do we really have this voice on the global high table that we were hoping for?
21:21have we been much too reactive rather than proactive?
21:24do we really have a moral voice left to take a strong enough stand, let's say, on what happened in Gaza?
21:30has Indian foreign policy in that sense, Dr. Tharoor, in the neighbourhood across the world found itself?
21:37has it got it right or wrong?
21:41look, I think one thing that's very clear is this entire turbulence in 2025
21:46has underscored the importance of the strategic autonomy that we set so much store by
21:51we've tried to come across as a voice of the global south
21:54while effectively balancing relations with Washington, Moscow and Beijing
21:58without having a direct degree of enmity or a great degree of partnership with any of them
22:05we are managing all these three relationships
22:08there's an enormous amount of instability in the global economy
22:12where we have had a relatively stable fiscal trajectory
22:15though of course our rupee has gone down so badly
22:18so that will put some inflationary pressure on us from energy imports
22:22which are of course priced in foreign currency
22:25but we are otherwise, I think, well poised to take advantage of some of these currents
22:31a multi-alignment, the phrase that I came up with 20 years ago
22:35and at that point it was rejected by the establishment and sank without trace
22:38is now the term of art to describe what we're doing
22:42the world is more and more like the world wide web
22:45you know, an internet networked world
22:48and we are trying to function around several networks without being stuck in only one particular pattern
22:54and that's multi-alignment
22:56and it's going reasonably well I believe
22:58you know, but do we have
23:00do we really have a voice on the global high table?
23:04that's my direct question to you
23:06we haven't I think tried enough to give ourselves the opportunity
23:14to be the kind of sort of punching above our weight global player
23:19that many of us had hoped that India would be
23:21I think we're not there yet
23:23and it's partially as you rightly implied
23:25because we are not interested or we are a bit reticent
23:28we haven't had the nerve or the courage to take too many steps forward
23:32and therefore we haven't become the big voice on the global high table yet
23:37but we can be
23:38and the global south might be the platform that enables us to be
23:41but also we with our technological strengths
23:44our ability to be an influential voice on everything from cyberspace to outer space
23:50our capacity to reach out to help developing countries in our neighbourhood and beyond
23:56as a well-meaning donor
23:58very different from the way the Chinese build up debts everywhere
24:01we've been very very considerate
24:04I think we've got all the elements to be a significant player
24:08and I will say to you Rajdeep that at the moment we have to do
24:14you know you're a cricket fan
24:16we have to play a few more defensive strokes at this stage of the innings
24:20before we can start launching into those expansive fours and sixes
24:23that your question implies we can do on the world stage
24:27arguably we can but at the moment there's still too many bouncers coming our way
24:33that we need to weave out of the way of
24:34you know but you're also a cricket fan
24:37so let me throw you a googly is part of the problem that there is no domestic consensus
24:41when it comes to foreign policy that's also broken down
24:44you yourself have placed a blowback from your own party
24:47every time you said even a word of praise for the Narendra Modi government's policies
24:51for example on Operation Sindhu
24:54is that something that should worry you or us that even foreign policy
24:58is now tied into a very polarized environment domestically
25:01making any government's task perhaps that much more difficult
25:04yeah I mean I said many many years ago there's no such thing as a BJP foreign policy
25:10or a Congress foreign policy
25:12there's only Indian foreign policy and Indian national interests
25:16and that's what I will always speak for
25:18and to my mind that really is something which most countries are dear to
25:23America has this doctrine of our political differences top of the water's edge
25:27and we I think very much need that because we are far more beleaguered at the water's edge than America is
25:34and I think we really do need to stay together stay behind the flag and and stand up
25:40so when when some perhaps people in our politics rejoice at what they see as setbacks for Mr. Modi
25:47I tend to see setbacks for India and and therefore I I bristle and stand up for my country
25:53and if that means standing up for my government that's what the voters or the public of this country have given us
25:58I'll have to do that but to my mind foreign policy is an area where in the past there have been moments of bipartisan consensus
26:06everyone talks about Vajpayee Saab leading the delegation to the UN meeting in Geneva on Kashmir
26:12with the government's MOS foreign affairs Salman Kushid going as the leader of the opposition's deputy
26:18and that sort of thing has also happened Indira Gandhi sent JP Narayan and other critics around the world
26:24on a tour of capitals to sensitize them on what was happening in East Pakistan in the lead up to what became the Bangladesh war
26:32we need to recapture that spirit because as Nehruji famously said who lives if India dies
26:38I mean there is no question in my mind that India comes first for all of us
26:42Okay interesting my final question therefore Dr. Tharoor what is that moment globally that stands out for you in 2025
26:50a moment that either fills you with hope or despair and what do you believe we should expect in 2026
26:56a little bit more stability or are we simply in an unsettled age?
27:03I'm not going to give you a black and white answer Rajdeep I would say the moment that stands out for me very clearly
27:08was Operation Sindhuur and the multi-party delegations that followed because of my own personal involvement in that process
27:15and the conversations I was able and privileged to have with world leaders in the aftermath of that
27:21so for me that was the biggest event of the year and it fills me with both hope and concern
27:27hope because of the extremely good quality of feedback we got from interlocutors in every country we went to
27:33and the amazingly positive level of interest in a close relationship with India
27:38but also a worry because despite all of that we had the the Trump tariffs following a few weeks after my visit to Washington
27:45we had the the the the the ascent of Pakistan that you and I talked about earlier in the program
27:51right and we've seen some of the the difficulties surrounding our relationship with with China as well
27:58and so with all of this there are reasons for concern foreign policy is not for the complacent
28:05and it's certainly not for those who are unable to see nuances we have to identify the nuances explore them and work through them
28:13and therefore for me the year begins with hope that we can manage all of this that we have a lot to contribute
28:20in terms of uh our capacity to involve ourselves as leaders of the global south in in in navigating a path
28:27for example if there is a path in you uh peace in Ukraine I see India playing a role very much in bringing that to
28:33to to uh permanence I think uh for example our fiscal prudence will help strengthen our economy our AI hubs and our
28:42technological work will make us an important player on the global technology transformations etc etc so there is a lot that I'm
28:49that I'm hopeful about and I'd like to see India uh march ahead with confidence in that context
28:55you know there's a word ummeed pe dunia kayem hai Dr. Tharoor and maybe that's the mantra
29:00going ahead into 2026 but for giving us in your inimitable fashion an overview of the world in 2025
29:06appreciate you joining us on this year-end global roundtable thank you so much
29:12thank you rajip happy new year to you thanks okay let's widen the year-end global roundtable with voices from across the world
29:22i'm joined from washington dc by michael patrick mulroy he's a former deputy assistant secretary of defense
29:29retired cia and u.s marine appreciate your joining us you're from harvard's welfare center in dc
29:35nathalie toki joins us she's professor of the practice at sa is europe john hopkins director of the institute of afare international line
29:42she joins me from spain adele nazarian senior fellow gold institute for international strategy is joining me from washington
29:49and ainer tangan uh senior fellow center for international governance and chairman of asia narratives is joining me from beijing
29:57i appreciate all four of you joining us uh thank you so much merry christmas and a happy new year to all of you
30:04but let's talk about uh our big questions the big question i want to pose has donald trump completely upended the post cold war world order
30:16would that be a fair understanding of what's happened in 2025 michael why don't you go first
30:21do you agree that donald trump has completely disrupted the world order as it was
30:28great to be with you and my fellow guests in your audience i think if you look at the national security strategy
30:34that was recently released it certainly appears to change uh the standard bare parts of u.s national security
30:44uh the national security strategies uh going back to 1947 right so it doesn't label russia as an adversary
30:52that's the first time ever uh at a time when russia has invaded a european country uh it uh it diminishes
31:00the role that europe has played in u.s security uh since the end of the uh of world war ii uh and then of course
31:09it prioritizes the western hemisphere going back to a time uh similar to say the monroe doctrine of
31:16the early 1800s so this is a sea change if it's instituted uh a strategy is only as good as it is
31:25being implemented so we'll have to see what comes from this but we're already seeing discussions on
31:30collapsing uh combatant commanders uh commands excuse me around the world to really focus on
31:38uh the western hemisphere so if that is in fact where we're headed then this is a sea change from
31:44where the united states has been uh since the end of world war ii i think the important point is whether
31:49this will actually translate from an overarching strategy into action because there's a word which the
31:54financial times of london uses which is taco trump trump always chickens out natalie toki there in
32:01spain from a european perspective do you believe donald trump is completely upending the world order
32:07give diminishing power to nato almost allowing russia acquiescing some believe in russia's invasion
32:14of ukraine he claimed he would end all wars that hasn't happened either well in fact you know i would say
32:20that prior to donald trump's return to office um we already knew that the world was becoming more
32:27multipolar we already knew that multilateralism and traditional uh organizations uh were um
32:35in a sense you know not necessarily on the decline but certainly struggling where i think trump has really
32:42made uh a difference at least in terms of worldview and as you rightly say the question is whether then this
32:48is going to be implemented is that he puts forward what i would define as a vision of imperial collusion
32:55and what i mean by this is that he understands the united states in many respects as being an imperial
33:01nation uh with uh ambitions uh that range from greenland to mexico uh to to canada to the western
33:09hemisphere more broadly but he also um understands that perhaps other powers may also have their imperial
33:16ambitions whether this is uh putin's russia or whether this is she's china so where i think the
33:24real difference probably compared to the past is that whereas we already knew that there was a more
33:29distributed uh uh sort of uh um as you know sort of asset of power basically where where the difference
33:38really lies is as i said in this vision of imperial collusion which basically sees not just europe but other world
33:4512 regions on the colonial menu that's an interesting world uh that you've used you believe that there is
33:51some kind of a global imperial collusion is what you're calling do you agree with that adele uh nazarian that
33:58donald trump's vision is virtually creating a world divided almost among strongmen putin given his space in
34:05in in europe in a way netanyahu in the middle east he gets his space in asia and therefore carving out the
34:13world into these little empires run by strongmen is that a sign of the times so i happen to think that
34:20president donald trump which was clearly laid out in his first term is continuing uh his strategy of
34:27actually uh unpending the way things were business as usual and i think that he's laid it out very
34:34clearly i believe believe it or not i don't think he's necessarily carving out parts of the world but
34:40i think there is going to be a reset uh in in the sense that everyone has been misreading and
34:46miscalculating russia and the western media and you just have to look at the numbers this is not we're not
34:52we're not operating in a cold war state department era any longer and there's a lot of reasons for
34:58that you have to this isn't rewarding aggression but what it's doing is it's actually seeing russia
35:04at face value uh regarding the plan in the middle east uh first of all just backtrack i do think that
35:10actually russia has already strategically won this war uh it's not over yet by far not over unfortunately i
35:18hope it ends soon but regarding the middle east situation the whole situation with gaza uh i never
35:25in a million years thought that we'd arrive at this but apparently there are talks of rebuilding gaza
35:31into a more less luxurious economically viable area and i think this is a brilliant strategy why
35:40not do that and provide the palestinian people and the residents of gaza with a better life and better
35:46opportunities then perhaps there will be far less uh terrorism happening between across the borders
35:53the whole reason the palestinians want to flee is because they want to get but that you actually
35:58believe that when donald trump says he's going to convert gaza into some kind of a riviera i mean
36:03it's been over the uh dead bodies of thousands of children women and the animosities run deep are you
36:10saying overnight donald trump just says i'm gonna i mean is this all donald trump posing for the cameras
36:17and making these statements or is there is there more to it than that so you can't you cannot deny the
36:23devastating repercussions of war it is horrifying it is heart-wrenching and my heart goes out to every
36:30single victim palestinian israelian other international people who are affected but when you look at it from a
36:36strategic perspective from a geopolitical point of view right uh if there is a true intention to
36:43modernize to upgrade to update and to actually build a sound infrastructure in gaza where people can
36:49actually thrive instead of being formatted under the rule of hamas then i think that it is a true
36:56opportunity that we should look at seriously and consider supporting um so that people can have an
37:01opportunity like never before in an unprecedented way unprecedented way let me bring in aina tangan
37:08do you believe that donald trump has completely upended the post-world cold war world order was it
37:13already upended and donald trump is only writing the final obituary to it uh the whole idea of pax americana
37:20of the american empire was already in a way coming to an end and you have multilateralism already in place in
37:26different parts of the world well i believe you're correct i mean donald trump is a symptom but he's
37:33also an accelerant and you can see that clearly his policies are not really laid out by him they were
37:39all put together by this uh heritage foundation and this 225 program the problem is there is no end
37:46game to these uh and what has happened is while people have you know bowed and scraped before
37:53donald trump given him bubbles and things like this um they're you know within their hearts they
37:59know that the united states is no longer reliable and it is uh no longer a power that is interested in
38:05international institutions the rule of law is simply whatever the united states says so in many
38:11respects for instance in china i think they had they were agnostic as what would happen with between biden and
38:17uh trump but now they believe that trump is really helping china he's doing things that china would
38:23never even have thought about in terms of alienating neighbors and whole spheres and things like this
38:29you know donald trump wants to play uh you know that he's some sort of historical figure um you know
38:35dividing up the world a la yalta after the second world war but he's actually more of a child uh in an old man's
38:43body he doesn't seem to understand even the basics of uh international just like he doesn't understand
38:49uh where anything is uh out there i mean there's so many flubs and inconsistencies that portrays his
38:57deep ignorance uh it's going to be very hard uh next three years trying to do this in terms of my
39:03previous uh colleagues speaking i i i would say that is somewhat diluted um probably a product of
39:11washington dc i was born there i've witnessed it uh this idea that you're making um you know gaza good
39:21for palestinians they have no intention of letting the palestinians back in once they've created this
39:26quote of playground if it ever happens and i i i find it offensive that saying oh well from a strategic
39:32point of view it's all for the greater good the greater good is what has broken the middle east and
39:38many other countries uh what we've done in south america and africa that has always been for the
39:44greater good and what is it resulted in horrible tragedies you know even as we speak of course uh
39:51this week itself uh the u.s has uh attacked uh isis targets or islamic state targets in nigeria so
39:58that's another conflict point which brings me to my next quick question in a multipolar world order who
40:04is going to actually resolve rising conflicts uh michael uh donald trump came to power saying i'm
40:10going to end all wars no war really has ended yes there's a tentative peace of sorts in the middle
40:17east at the moment but that's only at the moment the russia ukraine war hasn't ended uh and there is
40:23possibility of fresh fresh escalating conflicts we even seeing one uh between thailand and cambodia
40:29as we speak so where is donald trump uh ending any war at all or where who is going to play the
40:34role of ending wars are there any peacemakers peacekeepers left at all well one of the factors
40:42that would help end long simmering conflicts is the support of the international community and
40:48organizations that were designed to do just that uh and i would agree that it looks like the u.s is
40:54pulling away from the very system it created uh to which it placed the united states front and center
41:01of of the world order so it's kind of uh perplexing why the united states would want to
41:07leave it and then uh do whatever it can uh to reduce their impact including alliances like
41:14nato as far as ending war i would give the trump administration credit for pushing israel hard to
41:21get into the ceasefire that is currently uh tentatively going on in gaza we'll see if it
41:27goes into the second phase i'd have to give them credit for that but a lot of the other uh claims are
41:32are simply wars that have been going back and forth for decades and decades that uh have a hot hot spot if
41:39you will and then simmer down and just claiming that you've solved the war is certainly not the case and
41:46it it gives a false impression uh that those conflicts are are you know complete i think what's
41:52important is for the united states to be a leader of the free world uh to try to end conflicts but to
41:58do so as a partner to the party that is part of the free world so when you look at ukraine it's a
42:05democracy that was invaded by an autocracy uh the u.s shouldn't just be a mediator a u.s should be an
42:12advocate for ukraine uh and pushing for them to end this in in a in a way that they can agree with
42:19that's good for their security which is also good for nato's security which the u.s of course is a
42:24part of so i think if the u.s is going to play a role they got to play that role as a leader of the
42:29world and not just claiming to to end conflicts that uh simply start and stop on their own natalie
42:36do you who do you see ending these conflicts are we going to head to another year in 2026 with with
42:42even more simmering conflicts often localized but with no one out there to actually act as any kind
42:49of peacekeeper europe is struggling to deal with what's happened over the last three years in ukraine
42:55yeah well i mean firstly let me say that uh indeed uh saying that um u.n wars does not actually mean
43:01that those wars have ended i think this is uh absolutely key and of the many wars that trump
43:07has claimed to have ended probably the only one to you know you know for for which one should
43:14actually give him some credit although of course it predates uh peace efforts predates his coming uh
43:19to power is actually the war between armenia and nasser baijan so if i were to actually give uh one
43:25brownie point to donald trump it would actually be on on that frankly speaking on the middle east yes i mean
43:31uh it's uh uh great to have a truce in between one bombing and another uh it's great not to have
43:3850 palestinians dead a day and only have five but frankly speaking to define this as a full ceasefire
43:44let alone the prospect towards uh reconstruction and state building uh i think we're a very very long way
43:51away and fundamentally i think the reason is not uh that different from uh the reason um in in europe
44:00meaning the problem with donald trump is that he is unwilling to exert sustained pressure he has done
44:07so a little bit more with israel than with russia with russia absolutely zero uh unwillingness to
44:13sustain uh pressure on the party that actually does not want to end the war so in the case for example of
44:20of europe there is absolutely no prospect for the war to end sustainably over the course of 2026
44:27unless we will see a radical shift in the trump administration's approach uh towards this war
44:33actually being willing to exert pressure on russia if this doesn't happen and i frankly speaking don't
44:39expect it to happen uh i think that what we will end up seeing is the continuation of this war probably
44:46for another year i personally believe that this war will continue so long as vladimir putin remains in
44:51power but and let me say this one one last thing what i think people also underestimate is that by uh
44:59withholding support for ukraine trump has actually diminished the us's own influence on this war right
45:08basically europeans after all their weakness which is often talked about are the ones that actually
45:14have the most powerful sanctions in place the ones that now support essentially all economic and
45:21military assistance uh to ukraine uh they're the ones that can move forward on ukraine's eu accession
45:27path so actually in many respects europeans under donald trump have many more cards than they did on the
45:34ukraine war compared to what they did when joe biden was in power interesting uh now adele you follow the
45:41middle east particularly closely do you see uh the wars in the area uh diminishing or intensifying
45:50uh we've had a year when israel bombed iran we thought that would spiral out of control we've had as i
45:57said thousands of palestinians who've been killed uh post the october 7th uh happenings uh of hamas do you
46:05see any kind of reconciliation at all and who's going to do the reconciliation so thank you for that i
46:14have to say i just want to say you can deny that wars didn't proliferate under under trump's watch but
46:23they actually didn't and i just have to address something else before i get to this um i disagree with
46:29the premise completely that trump's trying to divide the world up he actually has already acknowledged
46:35the world has been divided for so long even long before he came into office and pretending otherwise
46:41hasn't produced peace it hasn't produced civility and it hasn't produced prosperity and strategy really
46:46begins with reality not illusion regarding the middle east i have to address my esteemed colleagues comments
46:52earlier um delusion is not the word gaza saying it can't be rebuilt saying it can be rebuilt it's
47:00not delusional in fact it's delusional thinking that it can't be far worse devastation has occurred
47:08from europe after world two to asia to the middle east and it's been rebuilt bigger and better and the
47:13real question isn't whether gaza can be rebuilt it's whether actually under which circumstances it can
47:20be rebuilt and i think the condition set forth in the 21 point plan that president trump and the
47:24administration put forward is not unreasonable it can only honestly be rebuilt when hamas is no
47:30longer part of the equation and i think everyone needs to really come to terms with this and have
47:35a hail mary so to speak um whatever you want to call it because i've been hearing even a lot of people
47:41in the u.s who are actually supporting hamas and i think that that's a global travesty um as to whether or
47:49not that this war can end whether it'll be peace i don't think there will ever be peace in the middle
47:55east until until certain things are set into motion tend to place i think rebuilding gaza will be the
48:01first thing as to the humanitarian suffering and loss that has occurred on on the on the gaza side and
48:07on the israel side um i am not a fan of war and i but i understand i'm a logical person a realistic
48:14person i understand that if you're going to get attacked unfortunately any sovereign nation that
48:19has the grit and is going to be responsible for upholding democratic values uh in the middle east
48:25or wherever region they're located in the west is going to strike back with equal uh and opposite force
48:31and that was you know that that there'll be questions whether it was equal and opposite or whether it was
48:36disproportionate uh force being used and whether there were there was enough check on what israel did in
48:42gaza at the end of the day but i want to turn to the next question and i know i want you to take
48:46this question because many believe that china is the x factor in global equation the elephant in the room
48:52you know that country well do you believe how we how is china looking at this appended world order
49:01well i mean from the chinese perspective they see it different i mean for the last 600 years you've had
49:06dominant countries uh from you know colonialism uh basically raping robbing and pillaging throughout
49:12the world justifying it based on religion or because they're superior ethnic issues whatever um china
49:20believes that that is a dead end and that we're coming to the end of that uh era they think that the
49:27future is something where you have a lot of nations who have to work together instead of trying to put
49:34ideology at the center of the world what you should have is values i think that every country should
49:41be secure and their security should not depend on the insecurity of another nation now what are the
49:46shared values what are the what are the values that china for example shares with the united states apart
49:52from uh you know uh wanting uh power it's all about power is it about any values out there when you talk
49:58of a g2 no i i don't and i i reject i think most people in china reject this as a as just a way of
50:06trying to slight russia and other countries uh if china is not interested in g2 they originally uh
50:13were they said well we should sit down and try to work things out but they realize now that it's a
50:18multi-polar world if you look at in terms of values what they're talking about is security development
50:24respect for sovereignty and having a global order which does not involve using tanks and uh and
50:31instead trying to have talks so it's to a clash of different uh uh ideas the u.s believes that
50:39everything should be ideological based on what uh american exception and china believes in geoeconomics
50:46am i right china believes that economic power must translate into commensurate political power
50:51uh no i don't i don't i don't don't agree with that um it's what they see is that in for china
50:59especially uh what they want to do is be able to import uh resources and add value and export them
51:05in order to have a virtuous cycle what they would like is to have other countries to start growing
51:12because if they can grow they can buy more goods so they see something as a positive upswing whereas
51:19you know donald trump sees the world as a zero-sum game in which uh uh the u.s is going to take
51:24everything in account can i i tell you want to make a quick point a very quick one i have to just
51:30preface by saying i i love china i lived there briefly i visited many times it is a beautiful
51:35beautiful country with so much to offer but i have to answer that when it comes to the shared values
51:41between the united states and china they don't share values in the western liberal sense what they do
51:46share are interests incentives and behaviors that are rooted in power prosperity and stability and
51:52that's where you have to look at it as you have to look at it as a don't tell me what i have to look
51:57at you you're a brief acquaintance with china and your age does not make you appropriate for making
52:03judgments about things that you have not experienced the fact is you just said that everything is
52:10ideological and i was making the point that what they believe is that it's based on values not the
52:16values of ideology but the values of human existence coexistence and a quick final you want to respond
52:25i don't respect i don't agree that respectfully i think that there are two different sets of ideological
52:29values that govern both both nations and i think that that is to be expected to be believed and frankly
52:36if you're going to have what we're what we're seeing here is a head-to-head between two two
52:40great monoliths the u.s and china you're literally going to have a head-to-head battle over two
52:47different ideological purviews the east and the west certain right if you look at the family values too
52:53very different very different in many ways and it's not a bad thing okay i i have a couple of minutes
52:59left and i want to ask one final question i want to put each of you in a way on the spot because i want to
53:04ask you what has been the most defining moment of 2025 and what is most likely to happen in 2026.
53:13uh michael what do you think is going to what has been for you the most defining moment of 2025 and
53:18what will happen in 2026 a minute each to all of you you start first michael
53:25well i do have to say it's the uh it's the 2025 national security strategy that was released i was
53:30part of the team that did the 2017 strategy which was very consistent with uh u.s foreign policy
53:37going back to uh again at the to the end of the world war ii so that was clearly in my estimation
53:45uh the defining moment whether it will be implemented i think we all talked about that
53:50is the question uh just putting the strategy out and then i mean how many times did you hear people in
53:55washington dc talk about pivoting from the middle east and they never pivots from the middle east
54:00so we'll have to see if this strategy is actually implemented if it is this will be right in
54:06extraordinarily uh challenging year in my estimation on how the u.s is going to do that what it's going
54:12to mean for our partners and alliances around the world and this and quite frankly the status of the
54:17united states uh to many of our allies and partners if we okay withdrawing forces uh i'm sorry i think
54:24i come over a moment okay i i'm just going to get you natalie your view what's the most defining
54:30moment of 2025 i think the most defining moment which unfortunately is not just a moment has been
54:37probably what um in future the international court of justice will define as a genocide happening under
54:43the eyes of the world and no action being taken uh in terms of the most defining moment of 2026 if
54:50there is going to be one and perhaps let me put a little bit of hope in this um is actually a europe
54:56which overcomes uh its delusion of simply wanting to wait it out and uh somehow uh hope to uh reign back
55:05trump and keep trump on europe's side it will be a europe that actually has the guts to stand up and to
55:12uh defend its uh values and interests in ukraine uh adele defining moment this is not about president
55:22trump president trump is a speck in the collective system and he is uh having his moment now and he's
55:30here for a reason but this is bigger than him and i disagree with him also on several occasions but the
55:35most defining moment of 2025 i feel was not a war it was not an election in fact it was a collective
55:41awakening of consequence we've seen a collective awakening of consequence away from hypocrisy
55:45humanity realized that intention without discipline and morality without structure produces chaos rather
55:52than purpose and i think that's what we really need um i think 2026 is going to be a reckoning i think
55:57there's going to be a reset and there's going to be even more awakening spiritually as well and i think
56:03that's what the world needs you need to realize that there are consequences for your actions and that
56:08truth cannot be deferred indefinitely without a cost and okay i uh you're i i uh my final word to aina
56:16aina 40 seconds what's your defining moment what's most likely to happen in 2026
56:23uh i will actually say cop 30 because the the 85 of the world that is not uh you know previous
56:29colonial powers realize that there is no help coming that if they want a better world they're going to
56:35have to create it themselves so uh coming on it's not a just an eventful year we're going to have
56:41midterms it's going to be eventful three years we don't know what donald trump is going to do
56:46but we can anticipate it'll be more of the same okay as i said we've uh titled this in a way the year
56:53that the world was trumped because literally donald trump has been all over the place and events across
56:59the world in a way have been shaped by this unpredictable leader in the white house but
57:06we look forward to 2026 i don't think we've ever seen as many as global headlines uh being made uh
57:12often at midnight as we have in 2025 let's hope though for a more peaceful and harmonious world to
57:19all my panelists for joining me on this global round table and to you the viewers thanks very much for
57:25joining us we'll of course carry forward our year end specials into 2026 thanks for watching stay well
57:32stay safe jai hin namaskar
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